2009 NFL PIcks - Week 14

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are no more byes this year in the NFL schedule, so there are 16 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted December 12 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

INDIANAPOLIS 7 Denver - Denver
MINNESOTA 6.5 Cincinnati - Minnesota
NY Jets 3 TAMPA - Tampa
KANSAS CITY Pk Buffalo - Buffalo
Green Bay 3 CHICAGO - Green Bay
New Orleans 10 ATLANTA - New Orleans
BALTIMORE 13.5 Detroit - Detroit
JACKSONVILLE 2.5 Miami - Miami
NEW ENGLAND 13 Carolina - Carolina
HOUSTON 6.5 Seattle - Houston
TENNESSEE 13 St. Louis - Tennessee
Washington 1 OAKLAND - Oakland
DALLAS 3 San Diego - Dallas
NY GIANTS 1 Philadelphia - NY Giants
Arizona 3.5 SAN FRANCISCO - Arizona

Thursday Night
Pittsburgh 10 CLEVELAND - Pittsburgh (ugh!)


2009 NFL Picks Record: 102-89-1

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 13

Wow, what a week for me in Fantasy Football in the Dallas League. I needed a win to make the playoffs. Sunday morning I was bouncing back and forth between starting Brandon Jacobs or Cadillac Williams. I chose Cadillac. Terrible move. Sunday evening I thought this move was going to keep me out of the dance and keep me from winning any cash.

With all my players finished playing, I had a 23 point lead on my opponent, but he still had Brett Favre and Greg Jennings to play. Luckily for me, Favre played his worst game of the year, but he did score 6 late Fantasy points on a garbage touchdown. I was yelling for Vikings coach Brad Childress to bench him.

So, going into MNF, I had an 8 point lead and I only needed to avoid a touchdown or a big yardage night from Greg Jennings. It was clearly touch and go all night long, but I ended up winning my game by 2 points 69-67. I am the #6 seed out of 6 playoff teams. I just need Peyton Manning to get hot again, Randy Moss to play big, and Brandon Jacobs to do what he did this week.

Going into the playoffs, I am already down a starter because I do not think that Hines Ward is going to play tomorrow night. I probably have to play Michael Crabtree as my #2 receiver. He could have a big game and he plays on Monday night. He actually could be the deciding Fantasy player this week.

I had one of my worst weeks of the year picking games against the spread. I ended up 6-10 for the week and that drops me to 102-89-1 on the season. Tonight, I need to pick up a back up QB and a back up kicker for the playoffs. In our league, rosters are set this Sunday, so if Manning or Nate Kaeding got injured I would be in trouble.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 13

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are no more byes this year in the NFL schedule, so there are 16 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted December 5 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

Denver 4.5 KANSAS CITY - Denver
PITTSBURGH 14.5 Oakland - Pittsburgh
JACKSONVILLE PK Houston - Houston
INDIANAPOLIS 6.5 Tennessee - Tennessee
Philadelphia 5.5 ATLANTA - Philadelphia
CINCINNATI 13 Detroit - Detroit
New Orleans 9.5 Washington - New Orleans
CAROLINA 5 Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay
CHICAGO 9.5 St. Louis - St. Louis
San Diego 14 CLEVELAND - San Diego
SEATTLE PK San Francisco - San Francisco
Minnesota 3 ARIZONA - Minnesota
Dallas 2.5 NY GIANTS - Giants
New England 4 MIAMI - New England
GREEN BAY 3 Ravens - Green Bay

Last Thursday Night:
NY Jets 3 BUFFALO - Buffalo

2009 NFL Picks Record: 96-79-1

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 12

On my NFL picks this week I went 9-7 against the spread to make me 96-79-1 on the season.

In my Dallas league, this is the last regular season game. I am currently in a 4 way tie for the final playoff berth. I need huge games this week from Peyton Manning, Brandon Jacobs, and LeSean McCoy. I drafted Jacobs in the 2nd round and he has killed me all year. I am strongly considering starting Cadillac Williams with a favorable match up.

In my Atlanta league, I lost another game, but this was a heartbreaker. I went into the Sunday night game with Derrick Mason and I needed a big game from him to win. Mason played great, but I came up one point short. I needed Mason to catch one more ball for about 20 yards. That would have been nice. My performance in this league has been a disaster and I am in danger of finishing dead last.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 12

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are no more byes this year in the NFL schedule, so there are 16 games to pick. 3 games on Thanksgiving Day. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted November 29 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

Indianapolis 3 HOUSTON - Houston
CINCINNATI 13 Cleveland - Cincinnati
MINNESOTA 10.5 Chicago - Minnesota
PHILADELPHIA 9.5 Washington - Washington
Miami 3 BUFFALO - Buffalo
TENNESSEE 2.5 Arizona - Tennessee
Seattle 4 ST. LOUIS - Seattle
ATLANTA 12 Tampa Bay - Atlanta
NY JETS 3.5 Carolina - Carolina
SAN FRANCISCO 3 Jacksonville - San Francisco
SAN DIEGO 13.5 Kansas City - Kansas City
BALTIMORE 8 Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh
NEW ORLEANS 1.5 New England - New Orleans

From Thanksgiving Day:

Green Bay 10.5 DETROIT - Green Bay
DALLAS 13.5 Oakland - Oakland
NY Giants 7 DENVER - NY Giants

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 11

The Steelers are my team and they got upset this weekend by Kansas City. That game pretty much shows how my weekend went. I was 8-8 picking games. This week is another week this year where I lost almost all of the early games against the spread, but the late games I came storming back just to reach .500 for the week.

Fantasy Football can be so frustrating. I picked up Ladell Betts last week, but did not play him. Clearly, my fault. Then, I thought about picking up Jason Snelling from the Atlanta Falcons on waivers, but I figured I would play Betts and be fine. Betts ended up getting hurt earlier in the Redskins and Cowboys game. He did not score a Fantasy point. Meanwhile, Snelling had a monster game.

In my Dallas league, I am in a four way tie for 4th place. Someone in this group with a very solid team is not going to make the play-offs this year. My team scored well last week, but lost. I think I had the 3rd most points for the week, but I was playing one of the best teams in the Kellen Winslow Friendship League.

I have a tough schedule, but if I can make the play-offs I have a dangerous team led by Peyton Manning and Randy Moss. I need Brandon Jacobs to come up big Thanksgiving night versus the Denver Broncos. It looks like Ahmad Bradshaw might not be able to play, so that should boost Jacob's value a little bit.

If anyone is interested, I will pick the games for tomorrow on my twitter feed on the right hand side of the page.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 11

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are no more byes this year in the NFL schedule, so there are 16 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted November 21 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

CAROLINA 3 Miami - Carolina
DETROIT 3.5 Cleveland - Detroit
JACKSONVILLE 9 Buffalo - Buffalo
Pittsburgh 10 KANSAS CITY - Pittsburgh
Indianapolis 1.5 BALTIMORE - Baltimore
NY GIANTS 6.5 Atlanta - NY Giants
GREEN BAY 6.5 San Franscisco - Green Bay
MINNESOTA 10.5 Seattle - Minnesota
DALLAS 11 Washington - Washington
New Orleans 11 TAMPA BAY - Tampa Bay
Arizona 9 ST. LOUIS - Arizona
NEW ENGLAND 10.5 NY Jets - New England
Cincinnati 9.5 OAKLAND - Oakland
San Diego 3 DENVER - San Diego
Philadelphia 3 CHICAGO - Philadelphia
HOUSTON 4.5 Tennessee - Tennessee

2009 NFL Picks Record: 79-64-1

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 10

Wow, what a Sunday and Monday this week. I went 12-3 in my NFL picks (that makes me 79-64-1 on the year) and 2-0 in Fantasy Football. I finally won another game in my Atlanta league. I was worried that I was going to finish the season with 1 measly win. I still did not make the right call on my only crucial line-up decision.

I picked up Ladell Betts on waivers last week with plans to start him, but he barely practiced last week and was listed as questionable by the Redskins. I hate running backs that have ankle or knee injuries, so Sunday morning I started thinking about starting Chester Taylor of the Vikings.

I figured the Vikings would kill the Detroit Lions and Taylor would get a bunch of garbage yards and maybe a 4th quarter touchdown. Needless to say, I started Taylor and Betts had a monster game for the 'Skins. I would really like to finish out this Atlanta league schedule with a couple of more wins.

The Sunday night game was a great game to watch especially when you have Peyton Manning and Randy Moss on the same Fantasy team. I started the game behind by 53 points to another playoff contender and the commissioner of the Kellen Winslow Friendship League. Plus, I was robbed of a win by a commissioner decision earlier in this season. It is always nice to beat the Commish and I really wanted to win this one.

Moss and Manning put on show and scored 51 points. I still had the Baltimore Ravens' defense to play on MNF and they scored huge. In this Dallas league, I am right in the middle of the playoff race. I really feel for Cleveland Browns' fans--it was almost impossible to watch the game last night.

The Browns are the worst team I have seen all year. Can Brady Quinn throw anything besides a pass near the line of scrimmage? Awful. Terrible. It might be time for Roger Goodell to step in and do something for the sake of the fans and the city of Cleveland.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 10

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are only 2 teams with a bye this week in the NFL schedule, so there are 15 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted November 14 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

SAN FRANCISCO 3 Bears - Bears
NY JETS 7 Jacksonville - Jacksonville
Denver 3.5 WASHINGTON - Washington
PITTSBURGH 7 Cincinnati - Pittsburgh
TENNESSEE 7 Buffalo - Tennessee
MINNESOTA 16.5 Detroit - Minnesota
New Orleans 13.5 ST. LOUIS - New Orleans
Atlanta 1.5 CAROLINA - Carolina
MIAMI 10 Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay
OAKLAND 2 Kansas City - Kansas City
ARIZONA 8.5 Seattle - Arizona
SAN DIEGO 1 Philadelphia - San Diego
Dallas 3 GREEN BAY - Green Bay
INDIANAPOLIS 3 New England - New England
Baltimore 10.5 CLEVELAND - Baltimore

2009 NFL Picks Record: 67-61-1

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 9

Steadily, I am making some headway on my NFL picks. 10 out of 13 NFL underdogs this week covered the point spread. The only favorites to win and cover were Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. I went 8-5 this week.

Monday night was another close call for me in Fantasy. In my Dallas league, I was up by 12 points going into the game. I had the Steelers Hines Ward and my opponent had the Denver Broncos defense. He cut the game to 4 points when the Broncos returned a Big Ben fumble for a touchdown.

At that point, the Broncos defense still had not allowed a touchdown and Ward was struggling big time. The Steelers took that kick-off and drove down for a touchdown scored by Ward. After that score, I breathed a little easier. Ward capped off a great night with a late touchdown. The win moved my to 5-4 on the season, but in this league, there is a very tight race for playoff spots. 10 teams basically have a shot to make the playoffs in this league.

I was able to pick up Ryan Moats in my Atlanta league and he scored 10 points for my team, but now Moats is on a bye. My running back situation is a total mess. The Colts' Donald Brown is not playing, Moats is on a bye, Larry Johnson just got cut by the Chiefs and Matt Forte is at the top of the 2009 list of Fantasy team killers.

2009 NFL Picks Record: 67-61-1

2009 NFL Picks - Week 9

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are 6 teams with a bye this week in the NFL schedule, so there are only 13 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted November 7 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

JACKSONVILLE 6.5 Kansas City - Jacksonville
Baltimore 3 CINCINNATI - Baltimore
INDIANAPOLIS 9 Houston - Houston
ATLANTA 9 Washington - Atlanta
Green Bay 9.5 TAMPA - Green Bay
CHICAGO 3 Arizona - Arizona
NEW ENGLAND 10.5 Miami - New England
NEW ORLEANS 13 Carolina - Carolina
SEATTLE 10 Detroit - Seattle
SAN FRANCISCO 4.5 Tennessee - Tennessee
NY GIANTS 4.5 San Diego - NY Giants
PHILADELPHIA 3 Dallas - Dallas
Pittsburgh 3 DENVER - Pittsburgh

2009 NFL Picks Record: 59-56-1

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 8

Another mediocre week of picking games left me at 6-7 for the weekend. I did pick the Vikings, Miami, and St. Louis to cover, but lost out on the big favorites San Diego, New Orleans, and Arizona. That still leaves me slightly above .500 for the year.

I am not an Atlanta Falcons fan or a New Orleans Saints fan, but I watched almost every play of the 4th quarter with trepidation. In one of my leagues this week, I had a slim lead going into MNF. I had Tony Gonzales, but my opponent was playing Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey.

Late in the game, Shockey caught about a 15 yard pass to tie up our Fantasy match up. The Saints eventually scored and the Falcons got the ball back. When Matt Ryan found Gonzales with a couple of catches in the last minutes, I was celebrating like I had won the Kellen Winslow Friendship League title. I am now 4-4 in my Dallas League and I am in playoff contention.

In my Atlanta league, I am just getting torched. I am 1-7, but there was some light at the end of the tunnel this week. My team put up over 90 points with a garbage number two running back. But, the guy I was playing had Stephen Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew. Unlucky. Another loss.

I am going to try and pick up Ryan Moats this week, so I am not giving up on playing the spoiler role in the final weeks of the season. To make matters worse, TE Owen Daniels is out for the year on this roster.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 8

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are 6 teams with a bye this week in the NFL schedule, so there are only 13 games to pick. These point spreads (except for the Atlanta vs. New Orleans game) are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 31 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

BALTIMORE 3 Denver - Baltimore
CHICAGO 13 Cleveland - Cleveland
Houston 3 BUFFALO - Buffalo
GREEN BAY 3 Minnesota - Minnesota
INDIANAPOLIS 12.5 San Francisco - Indianapolis
NY JETS 3 Miami - Miami
DETROIT 4 St. Louis - St. Louis
DALLAS 9.5 Seattle - Dallas
SAN DIEGO 16.5 Oakland - San Diego
TENNESSEE 3 Jacksonville - Tennessee
ARIZONA 10 Carolina - Arizona
NY Giants 1 PHILADELPHIA - NY Giants
NEW ORLEANS 10 Atlanta - New Orleans

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 7

Finally, I made some good NFL picks against the spread. I went 9-3-1 this week. After making the picks, I was nervous because I picked mostly favorites and gave points. Usually, this is what Las Vegas wants the general public to do. If you go with the public opinion, you often get killed on Sundays, but this week Vegas had to lose a ton of money.

It could have been worse. If the 49ers had not pulled QB Shaun Hill, the Houston Texans probably would have been the 11th favorite to cover in Week 7. The only two underdogs to cover were Arizona and Buffalo and they won their games outright. I picked Buffalo in a feeble attempt to give some karma to my Fantasy wide out Terrell Owens. Well, one out of two isn't bad.

Speaking of Fantasy, I am almost at the give up point. I was in a position that happens every week in Fantasy. I was leading both of my games going into Monday Night Football. All I needed was the Washington Redskins to play really well and make the game a low scoring contest. What a joke. David Akers, the Eagles' kicker and the Eagles' defense combined to beat me in both my leagues before halftime!

One bright spot this week was that I did pick up Michael Crabtree in both leagues and he played okay for his first game. That pick up could help me make the playoffs in my Dallas league. What is going on with the Atlanta league, you ask? Forget it. I just watched the Alien sequels last weekend and I have had a Bill Paxton type meltdown already.

It can't be that bad, these are some of the guys on my roster in that league--Matt Forte, Larry Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Terrell Owens. Remember how good Boldin and Forte were last year? Yeah, neither do I.

2009 NFL Picks Record: 53-49-1

2009 NFL Picks - Week 7

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are 6 teams with a bye this week in the NFL schedule, so there are only 13 games to pick. Also, the New England and Tampa Bay game is in London, England. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 22 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

San Diego 4.5 KANSAS CITY - San Diego
Indianapolis 13 ST. LOUIS - Indianapolis
CINCINNATI 1.5 Chicago - Chicago
Green Bay 7 CLEVELAND - Green Bay
PITTSBURGH 4 Minnesota - Pittsburgh
New England 14.5 TAMPA BAY - New England
HOUSTON 3 San Francisco - Houston
New York Jets 6 OAKLAND - Oakland
CAROLINA 7 Buffalo - Buffalo
New Orleans 6 MIAMI - New Orleans
DALLAS 4 Atlanta - Dallas
NY GIANTS 7 Arizona - NY Giants
Philadelphia 7 WASHINGTON - Philadelphia

2009 NFL Picks Record: 44-46

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 6

October is a great time to be a sports fan. Monday night's baseball games and Monday Night Football were fun to watch. I really like the late afternoon start time for playoff baseball games. You might miss some of the early innings, but you are able to catch all of the crucial moments.

Going into the weekend, I felt good about my NFL picks. There were a ton of home favorites and big point spreads. I went 6-8 on the weekend to fall one game below .500 for the season. I missed on some close covers by losing teams like the Ravens and Browns.

At least, playoff baseball is giving me something to look forward to, because my Fantasy Football season is slowly going down the drain. I was killed in my Atlanta league this weekend to drop to 1-5 on the season. In my Dallas league, my receivers had nice games, but both my bench running backs played better than my starters. I am having a major dilemma every Sunday on whether to start the Giants' Brandon Jacobs or Ahmad Bradshaw. So far, I have been staying with Jacobs, but he is struggling big time.

Here is my Fantasy year in a microcosm. Peyton Manning has been carrying me, but he was on a bye this week. There were very few options on the waiver wire, but I went with Mark Sanchez of the Jets against the Bills. All Sanchez did was throw 5 interceptions in one of the worst performances by a QB this season. Sanchez looked miserable in the cold and wind in New York. I guess I should have figured in the weather.

The bright spots this week for me were my TE's, Hines Ward, Randy Moss, and Aaron Rodgers. Hines is quietly having a Pro Bowl season. Moss was huge against the Titans and he looks to be back in sync with Tom Brady. Rodgers has been steady this year, but he is the one guy I can count on in my Atlanta league and he is not going to win Fantasy games by himself.

In my Dallas league, I am 3-3 and I think my line-up is solid going into the second half of the Fantasy season. I need the Ravens' defense to step up, but other than that I am getting above average production from the other players. I need to pick up a kicker this week and will probably go with a kicker playing against a bad team.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 6

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. Byes now each week in the NFL schedule, so there are only 14 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 15 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

WASHINGTON 6.5 Kansas City - Kansas City
CINCINNATI 4.5 Houston - Houston
PITTSBURGH 14 Cleveland - Pittsburgh
MINNESOTA 2.5 Baltimore - Minnesota
JACKSONVILLE 10 ST. Louis - St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS 3.5 NY Giants - Giants
Carolina 3.5 TAMPA BAY - Carolina
GREEN BAY 13.5 Detroit - Detroit
Philadelphia 14 OAKLAND - Philadelphia
SEATTLE 2.5 Arizona - Arizona
NY JETS 9.5 Buffalo - NY Jets
NEW ENGLAND 9 Tennessee - New England
ATLANTA 3.5 Chicago - Chicago
SAN DIEGO 4 Denver - San Diego

2009 NFL Picks Record: 38-38

*Wow, 12 out of 14 home teams are favored this week.

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 5

It seems that I am destined this year to be very average. I was 1-1 again this week in Fantasy Football and 7-7 in my NFL picks. That still leaves me at .500 for the year on picks versus the spread. Definitely, my best pick of the week was the Bengals to cover the spread against the hated Baltimore Ravens. I also picked Miami to win against the Jets.

In Fantasy games, I am making every wrong move with my roster in the Atlanta league. I dropped the Titans' defense and picked up the 49ers' defense. After the strong showing last year, the Titans have been terrible this year. The 49ers looked like a steal and a good start at home against Atlanta. Wrong. The 49ers put a -7 points on the board which seems impossible. The Falcons totally dominated that game.

To make matters worse, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte had bye weeks. I was forced to start Matt Cassel and Larry Johnson of the Chiefs. Cassel actually came through with a solid Fantasy game, but I was so uncomfortable with starting him I picked up Derek Anderson of the Browns and let go of WR Jeremy Maclin. Maclin had his best day of the year and Anderson had one of the worst games in the history of NFL quarterbacks. I think I jinxed him. My team is now 1-4 and in dead last in that league.

Luckily on draft day, I picked Peyton Manning in my Dallas league. I have never been a big fan and I had Peyton rated lower than a few other quarterbacks, but the QB I really wanted was gone when I picked. Lucky for me. Manning has carried me to a 3-2 record. One of those losses is somewhat disputed, so I feel pretty good about that team.

Peyton is on a bye this week and my back up plan is to start Mark Sanchez. I felt okay about that post waiver wire pick up last week, but with his performance last night and the addition of WR Braylon Edwards I like Sanchez this week. I need some other guys on the roster to step up to pick up the points lost with Manning on a bye.

This week I want to make some moves to make my Atlanta team better, but I do not see much out there. My team defense is awful, T.O. has killed me, and my running back situation is the worst in the league. I mean I actually picked up Mewelde Moore last week and thought about starting him against Detroit. That is really reaching for something in the distance...

2009 NFL Picks - Week 5

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. Byes started last week in the NFL, so there are only 14 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 7 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy. (There was no posted spread for the Seattle game, so I went with a spread from another web site.)

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

Minnesota 10 ST. LOUIS - Minnesota
Dallas 9 KANSAS CITY - Kansas City
CAROLINA 3.5 Washington - Carolina
PHILADELPHIA 14.5 Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay
NY GIANTS 16 Oakland - Oakland
BUFFALO 6 Cleveland - Cleveland
BALTIMORE 8.5 Cincinnati - Cincinnati
Pittsburgh 10.5 DETROIT - Pittsburgh
SAN FRANCISCO 2.5 Atlanta - San Francisco
New England 3 DENVER - New England
ARIZONA 5.5 Houston - Arizona
Jacksonville 3 SEATTLE - Jacksonville
Indianapolis 8.5 TENNESSEE - Indianapolis
NY Jets 1.5 MIAMI - Miami

2009 NFL Picks Record: 31-31

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 4

For whatever reason, the 1 pm NFL games this year are killing my picks. I struggled again out of the gate this week, but with the help of San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota all covering the spread at home, I finished the week 7-7 to stay at .500 for the season.

This weekend I was cut off from my Internet access, but I was able to follow the games and scores on the radio on Sunday. It seemed like my players were putting up some good numbers. The Bears' Matt Forte even came through with a touchdown and over 120 total yards. I started Donald Brown of the Colts and he scored a touchdown, so I was feeling good before checking the scores of my two Fantasy games.

Of course, in my Atlanta league, I was getting killed. My opponent racked up over 100 points this week. That owner made a great pick up and start of Rashad Mendenhall of the Steelers. Mendenhall had a monster game against San Diego. I am a huge Steelers fans so it was hard to be upset with that outcome. In this league, I dropped to 1-3 on the year and I have major bye week roster problems. Good times.

In my Dallas league, I came into the Monday night game down 12 points, but I had Mason Crosby kicking for me. I drafted this guy because he can make 50-yard field goals. He was kicking in a dome to make me feel even a little more confident. Aaron Rodgers helped kill me. The Green Bay quarterback fumbled on the first possession in potential field goal range; and then on the second possession, Rodgers threw a terrible interception when the Packers were driving. To add insult to injury, Green Bay decided not to try to other potential field goals that would have given Crosby points.

This game was frustrating because I made a change late in the week to bench Hines Ward and to start Devin Hester against the Lions. I figured the Bears would score a ton of points and Hester might have a big game. It turned out he put up 0 points and Hines came through with a solid game for the Steelers. That move hurt.

During this week, I have major roster problems because of the byes. Right now, I have to start Matt Cassel at quarterback and I do not have a kicker on one team. I do get Tony Gonzalez back in my line-up and I figure to start Marshawn Lynch this week to hopefully solidify one running back situation, but this season could be me just donating money if I can't get a couple of big wins this week.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 4

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. Byes start this week in the NFL, so there are only 14 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 1 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

CHICAGO 10 Detroit - Detroit
Cincinnati 5.5 CLEVELAND - Cincinnati
HOUSTON 9 Oakland - Oakland
INDY 10.5 Seattle - Indianapolis
Tennessee 3 JACKSONVILLE - Tennessee
NY Giants 8.5 KANSAS CITY - NY Giants
NEW ENGLAND 2 Baltimore - Baltimore
WASHINGTON 7 Tampa Bay - Washington
Buffalo 2 MIAMI - Miami
NEW ORLEANS 7 NY Jets - New Orleans
Dallas 3 DENVER - Dallas
SAN FRAN 9.5 St. Louis - San Francisco
PITTSBURGH 6.5 San Diego - Pittsburgh
MINNESOTA 3.5 Green Bay - Minnesota

2009 NFL Picks Record: 24-24

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 3

So far, I am not able to get a read on this NFL season. I am just scuffling along on my picks. This weekend I went 8-8. Ten favorites covered the spread. Clearly, I have to become a believer in Kevin Kolb, the Baltimore Ravens, and Jay Cutler.

My Fantasy Football weekend was very solid. My teams went 2-0 this weekend with very high scores. Carnell Williams, Tony Gonzalez, and Larry Johnson put up terrible numbers, but other than that my players came through in a big way. It helps that I had Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning starting at the QB position. Manning looked great in the Sunday night game. Without a dynamic running back, the Colts are going to have to throw for touchdowns in the Red Zone. Yes.

Interesting week coming up in the NFL because the bye weeks have arrived. Your bench is going to be a big factor. I am struggling with my number 2 running back in both of my leagues. It may help that I drafted Marshawn Lynch and he is finally going to be active this week after being suspended for the first 3 games. I wonder how much he will play though, because Fred Jackson has been producing for the Bills. It might be a wait-and-see approach if you own Marshawn Lynch.

One of the other pleasant surprises for me this week was the play of Eagles' back up running back LeShon McCoy. Of course, I did not start him, but with Bryan Westbrook always injured, McCoy could be valuable down the road. I also have Brent Celek the Eagles' tight end. I have been starting Owen Daniels and he has been playing well. I definitely would listen to trade offers for either Celek or Daniels. Neither one of my leagues makes many trades. Too much pride on the line and and nobody wants to look foolish.

I would like to pick up either a receiver or a running back this week, because I am not sold on Patrick Crayton and he is one of the back ups that I will need to play when my starters are on their bye weeks. He is a guy that could score some Fantasy points or be held without a reception in a game. Tough winning fantasy games with those type of guys.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 3

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 24 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

NEW ENGLAND 4 Atlanta - New England
MINNESOTA 6.5 San Francisco - San Francisco
NY Giants 6.5 TAMPA - NY Giants
Washington 6 DETROIT - Washington
NY JETS 3 Tennessee - Tennessee
PHILADELPHIA 8 Kansas City - Kansas City
Green Bay 6.5 ST. LOUIS - Green Bay
BALTIMORE 13 Cleveland - Cleveland
HOUSTON 3.5 Jacksonville - Houston
Chicago 1.5 SEATTLE - Seattle
New Orleans 6 BUFFALO - New Orleans
Denver 1.5 OAKLAND - Denver
SAN DIEGO 6 Miami - San Diego
Pittsburgh 4 CINCINNATI - Pittsburgh
ARIZONA 2.5 Indianapolis - Indianapolis
DALLAS 9 Carolina - Carolina

2009 NFL Picks Record: 16-16

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 2

Once again this week, I hovered right around .500 on my NFL picks with the spread, but the night games on Sunday and Monday put me over the top for the weekend. I picked the Giants and the Colts in those games to finish at 9-7.

In my Fantasy match-ups, I went 1-1, but with a silver lining. I scored big in the loss which could mean good things for the rest of the season. If the Chicago Bears and Jay Cutler do not start using running back Matt Forte, I am going to be in for a long season. My second highest scorer on this team is RB Mike Bell and I picked him up after the waiver wire last week. Forte was my highest draft pick and he has to play well.

All morning on Sunday, I messed with the idea of starting both Giants' running backs against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys were horrible against the run in Week 1 versus Tampa. I figured that it was too early in the season to start playing hunches; plus, if you give up a ton of yards rushing one week, the Cowboys' coaching staff probably focused on stopping the run all week against the Giants. Brandon Jacobs had below average game and Ahmad Bradshaw did not really do anything. Starting Mike Bell was my best call of the season so far.

On a positive note, T.O. scored a touchdown and could have had another long completion if he would not have dropped the pass from QB Trent Edwards. Even without probable starter Marshawn Lynch, the Bills' offense looks to be much improved. Owens should be able to have some big games this year.

In my Dallas league, my team scored its first victory of the season. However, it might have been less to do with my players than the fact that the Jets were able to contain Tom Brady who was going for the other owner. I picked up Cadillac Williams in this league and he had another solid performance for the Buccanneers. Another guy that I picked up is wide receiver Patrick Crayton. He gives me a solid back up wide receiver and this week I probably will not be making any roster moves. Hopefully, this week I can post my first line-up advice of the Fantasy season.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 2

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 17 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

ATLANTA 6 Carolina - Atlanta
Minnesota 9.5 DETROIT - Minnesota
GREEN BAY 9 Cincinnati - Green Bay
TENNESSEE 6.5 Houston - Houston
KANSAS CITY 3 Oakland - Kansas City
New England 3.5 NY JETS - New England
PHILADELPHIA Pick New Orleans - Philadelphia
WASHINGTOn 9.5 St. Louis - St. Louis
JACKSONVILLE 3 Arizona - Jacksonville
BUFFALO 5 Tampa Bay - Buffalo
Pittsburgh 3 CHICAGO - Pittsburgh
SAN DIEGO 3 Baltimore - Ravens
DENVER 3 Cleveland - Denver
DALLAS 2.5 NY Giants - NY Giants
SAN FRANCISCO 1.5 Seattle - Seattle
Indianapolis 3 MIAMI - Indianapolis

2009 NFL Picks Record: 7-9

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 1

The weekend could not have started worse for me with losses in the first 5 games of my NFL Week 1 picks. Luckily, I was able to bounce back on Sunday and I felt good going into last night's Monday night games. I picked both favorites and lost both games to finish Week 1 at 7-9.

My Fantasy teams were worse. I lost both my games this weekend. In my Dallas league, Vincent Jackson's touchdown late against the Raiders gave my opponent a 5 point victory in a close contest. I needed Randy Moss to score one of those last minute Patriot touchdowns. Clearly, Beanie Wells is not the answer at the number 2 running back slot.

In the Atlanta league, my team put up the least amount of points. I was counting on Aaron Rodgers to play big and he came up with one of the worst Fantasy totals of his career. Matt Forte was another major disappointment. If the Bears are not going to use Forte, they are in for a long season. Hopefully, Forte will get a lot more carries and receptions next week.

In real life and in fantasy football, you really cannot feel good when you are counting on wide receivers Terrell Owens and Anquan Boldin. I think Owens can bounce back, but the Bills have to at least give him some targets. I might have been equally as frustrated as Owens during last night's game.

Boldin is a whole other story. Boldin did not practice much last week and I checked the Cardinals' beat writers all week. Most said that he doubted he would play. Boldin even was quoted as saying that he did not want to play and risk missing more time by re-injuring his hamstring. I drafted the other Cardinals' receiver Steve Breaston as a handcuff for Boldin. So, on Sunday, I made the switch. Breaston at least had been practicing. Bad move. Boldin played and Breaston was inactive. Boldin did not play well and the Cardinals look like they might be a victim of the Super Bowl loser jinx.

Luckily, my team played so badly this week that I think I get the first pick in the waiver wire. If that is the case, I will be picking up Cadillac Williams. I might need a Lou Holtz pep talk even though it did not help the Ohio State Buckeyes this weekend.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 1

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 9 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right
*Home team is in capital letters.

PITTSBURGH 6 Tennessee - Pittsburgh
ATLANTA 4 Miami - Miami
BALTIMORE 13 Kansas City - Kansas City
Philadelphia 1 CAROLINA - Carolina
CINCINNATI 4 Denver - Cincinnati
Minnesota 4 CLEVELAND - Minnesota
HOUSTON 5 New York Jets - Houston
INDY 7 Jacksonville - Jacksonville
NEW ORLEANS 13 Detroit - New Orleans
Dallas 6 TAMPA BAY - Dallas
ARIZONA 6.5 San Francisco - San Francisco
NY GIANTS 6.5 Washington - NY Giants
SEATTLE 8.5 St. Louis - Seattle
GREEN BAY 3.5 Chicago - Green Bay
NEW ENGLAND 10.5 Buffalo - New England
San Diego 9.5 OAKLAND - San Diego

2009 NFL Picks: 0-0
2008 NFL Picks: 134-114-8
2008 NFL Playoff Picks: 8-3

Fantasy Football: Roster Analysis for My Dallas League

I play in two fantasy football leagues. My Dallas league has been in existence for six glorious seasons and there has not been much owner turnover. I always do an annual predicted order of finish with some roster analysis just for the love of Fantasy Football. The main goal is to fire some people up so they will make a bunch of transactions. Lots of transactions mean more money for the winning owner and I figure that pays for my Christmas gifts for 2009. Good luck and enjoy:

12. Walton’s House of Pizza – Showering and changing diapers during your Fantasy draft is usually a sign that you are just not into this league. This guy just has so much going for him right now—great family, sweet job, Kenyon Hall of Fame induction. Really, I did not even look at the roster and just made the team finish in last place out of spite and jealousy. I am not a believer in DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, or LenDale White. Fasano could score two touchdowns or have 1 catch on any given Sunday. This receiving corps worries me. The only bad part of this whole deal is I know that the owner is not going to make 10-15 transactions trying to get better. Playoffs? Say the word in your best Jim Mora impersonation.

11. DRock – Please take 10-15 seconds and upload a helmet logo for this great team name! You could go with the logo for the Greenhill Lady Hornets. I like the strategy of taking top tier wide receivers early on, and I would have taken Fitzgerald if you had not drafted him right before me, but after the first two rounds did you take a few OxyContin? Your quarterbacks are suspect and your running backs are hopes and dreams. Kind of like you’re your old roommate’s love life. Benson should have a good year, but he has never rushed for a 1,000 yards in his career. He is one alcohol binge and boat ride on the Ohio River from ruining your whole season. The great thing for the other owners in this league is that you are going to have to make about 23 transactions just to make it through the schedule. Playoff chance = none.

10. Rain City FC – Best helmet in this league by a wide margin, but how do you explain to school kids what happened in Brentwood that fatal night? I was waiting for this owner to draft Vince Young or Joe Gilliam in round 16, but that might have been over the top. Another year of McNabb as your starting QB? McNabb might be real life and fantasy football kryptonite. Very thin at running back and I absolutely hate your wide receiver corps except for Steve Smith. Eagles’ defense probably will not be the same either without the dearly departed Jim Johnson. Sorry, the owner’s smooth operator presence with the ladies of Seattle cannot get this team over the hump and into the playoffs. Is Seattle depressing?

9. Arrrrt – Very improved helmet team logo, but that name, ugh! I mean you are probably the most hip and happening guy at your high school, but who is the competition someone might ask. This team is by far the strongest you have ever had in this league. Rodgers, Barber, and starting wide receivers are studs. If A-Rodge stays healthy, he might lead the league in fantasy scoring. Solid running back depth. Tim Hightower might not produce a ton of yards, but he will get touches in the Red Zone. You have to be worried about your defense, back up wide receivers, and your kickers, but if you are relying on those guys as difference makers you would be in trouble anyway. This team is definitely a playoff contender.

8. Maurice Clarett Football Club – Remember when Clarett was leading OSU to a national title? Now, he is applying decals to road signs in the state penitentiary. I guess life can be worse. Nice pick of Jonathan Stewart in the late rounds. He seems to be getting healthier and will score some touchdowns. Brees is going to have a monster season. Solid duo of Tomlinson and Sproles, but running back looks like a weak spot if Tomlinson cannot carry the load and Philip Rivers refuses to pass him the football. A couple of former Ohio State wide receivers are great for leadership and locker room presence, but I might be worried about Santonio smoking joints in his car during the season. Brees makes you a contender for the playoffs, but if he gets hurt…

7. The Dawg Pound – Is this owner a Browns’ fan? I feel so badly for Browns’ fans that it is hard for me to right anything negative. Good thing because this roster is stacked with players. There are some big questions marks though: Does Steven Jackson care anymore? Is Tony Romo girl crazy again already? Will Brandon Marshall do anything this year or will he pout all year? Does Westbrook frustrate everyone by not practicing and then playing great on Sundays? Is Boldin happy or sad? Does Lee Evans wilt or flourish opposite Terrell Owens? Can Coach Rex Ryan duplicate his defensive touch with his new Jets’ defense? This team should be a playoff team, but I just came up with those questions in about 30 seconds. The answers might all be negative and that probably does not bode well.

6. Sherm-pups – The defending champion is the champ until someone knocks them off. Enjoy it young man. The Dude Abides. This roster is kind of like the Erin Andrews’ nude video for me. It looked better with its clothes on and when I undressed it the roster kind of fell short of my expectations. Warner had a magical season last year, but can he do it again? MJD is getting a ton of hype, but will he mail in games when Jacksonville starts losing? Jamal Lewis is old. Schaub is soft. Kellen Winslow is crazy—staph infection will do that to you. I like the Glen Coffee draft pick a ton, but will that win you many Fantasy games? Sherm-pups has the experience, coaching acumen, and downright orneriness to make a playoff run.

5. Laser Dick – Wearing two hats as an owner and commissioner is so difficult, so cut this guy some slack. I do wonder how Legally Blonde keeps getting the #1 pick year after year…must have incriminating photographs or something. Great picks at the end of the 1st round and beginning of the 2nd round. I also like Larry Johnson this year even though most people don’t. Who else do the Chiefs have? Oh yeah, you made a nice handcuff selection of Jamal Charles. Hated the Domenick Hixon pick, but you got great value from Chris Henry and Devery Henderson. Both those guys were on my “like” list. Having T.O. on any team is scary, but the women he dates on his reality TV show are very hot, so that balances things out. This team makes the playoffs.

4. Legally Blonde – This organization is like the Patriots. Very solid. Creative team name and cool helmet logo. Lost amidst the criticism of the selections at quarterback is that the owner had a superb draft. On the first play of the game Monday, Adrian Peterson took his first carry 75 yards the other night for a touchdown. Steelers’ defense is simply the best. Garrard was a top ten Fantasy QB in 2008. He is one of the few QBs likely to score rushing touchdowns. The two question marks have to be juggling the starting QB each week. All three are inconsistent and picking the right match up will be huge. Big Ben falsely accused without a doubt. Secondly, the back-ups are all young and unproven. They have big upside, but will they come through when Peterson misses three games with injuries? Peterson alone should get you to the playoffs.

3. Exxon Valdez – With a team name commemorating one of the worst oil tanker disasters in history, you might think this football club would sink after last season. Not so fast my friend. The Exxon roster is probably the deepest in the league. Brady is back. I like Matt Forte a ton. He might score about 20 TDs this year. Late round picks yielded a ton of value at the receiver positions. I was hoping to get Lance Moore at some point. Plus, I think Derrick Ward is going to have over 1,000 yards this year for Tampa Bay. Greg Jennings is vastly underrated in Fantasy. If this team does not make the playoffs, you cannot blame the GM. Blame the coach.

2. MK in Buckhead – Please come up with a new team name to match your sweet helmet. Here are some choices—Lebanese Lovers, Beirut Boys, Real Estate Warriors. All that you need to know about the unpredictable nature of Fantasy Football is that MK was the runner-up in last season. Looking at this roster, there is no doubt in my mind that MK is taking HGH or that he hired a Fantasy Football draft consultant. His Brandon Jacobs pick from two years ago would have been great this season. Wow, this is an explosive looking team. I like Matt Ryan, Ocho, Andre, Owen Daniels, Leon Washington, Anthony Gonzalez, Shiancoe (very large if you know what I mean), Percy Harvin, and Michael Bush. This roster is stacked. What could possibly go wrong? Possibly, a title contender.

1. Super Steelers – It is hard for me to be objective here, but this helmet is unmatched in professional sports. I have never like Peyton Manning, but this year the Colts’ signal caller is flying so far under the radar that I expect him to have a monster season. The Colts are going to have trouble scoring rushing TDs which should make Manning’s value even higher. Some might question the running backs on this team, but Brandon Jacobs is staring at a 15 touchdown season. Do not forget that last year after 10 games the Giants were the highest scoring team in the NFL. Jacobs should pick up some yards from the departed Derrick Ward as well. I hate the Ravens, but these guys always score defensive TDs. The whole key to this team might be whether or not Chris “Beanie” Wells shows up this year. I am pretty confident. Look for this team in the Kellen Winslow Friendship League Championship Game.

Living In a Fantasy World: 5 Quick Draft Tips

Fantasy drafts are similar to the old saying about the Thursday of a Major golf tournament. You cannot win your Fantasy League on draft night, but you might draft so badly that you are never a factor in your Fantasy League. Players are going to get injured or benched and you are going to have to make trades or waiver wire pick ups in order to make the playoffs and win your league. However, a draft with value players sets you up for a great start to the season.

For reference, I play in a couple of different 12 team leagues with a 16 round draft. We do not use flex players or Individual Defensive Players, so those are not covered in this article. Here are five quick draft tips that I use in my Fantasy Draft preparation.

1. Check out the Average Draft Positions for your main player targets. If you are like me, you do not have time to research all kinds of statistics before your draft. I usually spend about two or three hours actually making draft lists. ADP, Average Draft Position, is the best indicator of where players are going all over the country. You see the value that many other people are putting on each player.

In 2008 Fantasy drafts, Kurt Warner probably was not drafted in many leagues, but you might have had a gut feeling he was going to start for the Arizona Cardinals. It would have been a bad pick to draft Warner high, but if you knew you wanted him in round 14 as your backup quarterback, you could wait and fill out your roster with better players at the other positions. ADP is available on nearly all quality Fantasy Football web sites. If you only look at a couple statistics (touchdowns scored last year, total yards, etc.), ADP definitely needs to be one of them.

2. Make your own player Sleeper list with a concentration on some rookies. Everyone knows the best players, but you have to separate yourself by getting value in the later rounds. I make myself a list of 20 players that I know will be available in the later rounds. Every year there are rookies that make a big impact on Fantasy Football. Last year, Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans was a major contributor. Matt Forte, the Chicago Bears’ running back, was a Sleeper pick that helped someone win their league. One guy I really like this year is Jeremy Macklin of the Philadelphia Eagles. On offense, the Eagles spread the football around to all of their skill players, so Macklin is going to get some touches in the Red Zone.

3. Do a mock draft by positions like RB, QB, or TE. You really cannot do a mock draft by player, because of the unpredictability of other people in your Fantasy league. Someone may take a kicker in the first round! I saw that happen once. Plus, time is a factor. Very few people have the time to do an entire mock draft for Fantasy Football, but you quickly can do a round by round player position draft. This gives you a simple draft strategy to follow.

You should think unconventionally with your position order. Running backs are very important, but quarterbacks have led my leagues in scoring the past few seasons. If you have a middle pick in the first round, I definitely consider taking Tom Brady or Drew Brees. If you have bookend picks at the end of the first and beginning of the second round, you might take the best two running backs available or throw in one of the best wide receivers. Getting your top four draft selections correct is vital to having a winning Fantasy team.

For example, figure out in which round you want to take a QB, RB, or Wide Receiver. You may think that the wide receiver position is deeper than running back. If so, you might want to draft four running backs in the first six rounds of the draft. Make a list for all twelve rounds and try to stick to it. In later rounds, you can have RB/WR. Save your kicker for last, but I like to draft my starting defense in an earlier round, because I just take one defense. I know they are going to play each week. No chance of injury! This will help you focus and fill out your roster with quality players at ever position.

4. Know the Vultures and Handcuffs of your starting running backs. Handcuffs are back up running backs that can step right in for an NFL team, start, and produce Fantasy points. Vultures are other running backs on the same team as your starter that steal touchdowns away from your player. Running backs with known Vultures might lose some of their Fantasy impact.

The Carolina Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart is a big time Vulture. The Titans Lendale White is a touchdown Vulture. Teams that go with a bigger goal line running back are dangerous to your starter. Michael Bush of the Oakland Raiders is sure to steal some TDs from Darren McFadden. You might remember Jerome Bettis as the ultimate touchdown stealer for the Steelers a few seasons ago.

If you have the first pick and draft Adrian Peterson, you should look to draft Chester Taylor as Peterson’s handcuff in a later round. Peterson is going to miss a few games with injury. Another running back whose back up will earn a bunch of touches is the Colts’ Joseph Addai. If you draft Addai and are expecting to start him every Sunday, you need to know who is back up is. You might have to take the handcuff running back earlier than you want to but it will be worth it.

5. Pay attention to the Offensive Coordinators and their reputations. Everyone knows that the Saints are going to throw a bunch and score a ton of points. For that reason, the Saints’ skill players have more value than say the Chicago Bears with Ron Turner calling the plays. The Bears’ conservative offense makes Jay Cutler’s Fantasy value much lower this year.

Another example is New England. The Patriots have a new O-Coordinator this year. Will the Patriots throw for touchdowns in the Red Zone like the past few years or will they run the ball more for touchdowns? Their offense should be more potent with QB Tom Brady back, but there is some doubt there. Some teams whose players are more valuable based on their coaching philosophy are the Saints, Patriots, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles, Cowboys, and believe it or not the Kansas City Chiefs.

Blogging from the Blackberry

I just got a new Blackberry and I want to post to blogger from this phone. Did it work?

Super Bowl Prediction: Steelers Defense Dominates

Steelers -7 Cardinals

Two weeks ago, I picked both NFL conference championship games correctly and I am now 8-2 on picks in the playoffs. This Super Bowl pick is very easy for me to make. I am taking the Steelers to win and cover the 7 point spread.

This pick is easy because I am a Steelers fan. Going into this season in my predictions column, I had the Steelers playing the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. Mostly that pick was based on my feeling that Ben Roethlisberger was going to have a monster season (I even took Big Ben as my starting quarterback in Fantasy Football and that did not go so well). In 2007, he was the 2nd best quarterback to Tom Brady in the NFL

The Patriots were the team that most worried me as a fan. During this decade, the Patriots have been the Steelers’ nemesis during a few playoff runs. In fact, the Patriots were able to beat the Steelers even when Brady was injured and Drew Bledsoe had to play in the 2nd half of the AFC championship game a few years back. When Brady was injured in Week 1, I felt good about the Steelers and their Super Bowl chances, if they could survive their brutal schedule and make the playoffs.

However, Big Ben had an okay if not mediocre season statistics wise. He played well in the 4th quarters of the big regular season contests, but he was not the decisive factor I thought he would be. Instead, the Steelers defense took their level of play to a whole different stratosphere this year. I argue that the defense is not getting enough respect and attention during the Super Bowl hype. This unit only gave up 300 yards in a game once during the season. That is unprecedented in NFL history.

James Harrison, the NFL defensive player of the year, barely has been mentioned by any analysts as a factor for this game. He has had a quiet playoff run, but look for him to have a prominent role in Sunday’s game. Harrison will team up with Lamar Woodley and Lawrence Timmons to harass and sack Kurt Warner all afternoon. If it was not for the expert blitz pick ups by Willis McGahee of the Ravens, Timmons would have killed Joe Flacco on a couple of plays in the AFC championship game. Timmons is one player that the Cardinals have to account for on obvious blitzing and passing downs.

Big Ben will play well and the defense will dominate. My prediction is the game is close in the first half, but the Steelers win the game 34-14.

2008 Playoff Picks: 8-2
2008 Regular Season Picks: 134-114-8
2008 Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

NFL - Conference Championship Games

My Picks

Eagles -4 @Cardinals – Cardinals

Last week, I just had a feeling that the Cardinals were going to win that game and I actually picked them to win. Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald are the best passing combination left in the playoffs. The Arizona crowd was a factor in the Wild Card round against Atlanta and the crowd will be even louder this week. If I were an Eagles fan, I would be worried about Brian Westbrook. He struggled last week and now he is not practicing again. Westbrook was the best player on the field when these teams played on Thanksgiving Day. With Edgerrin James running hard, Tim Hightower, and J.J. Arrington, I think the Cardinals have the better running backs at this point. The Cards are way better at wide receiver. Eagles’ safety Brian Dawkins is the X factor. He has been all over the field in their last four games. The Eagles defense is better, but the Cardinals are athletic on that side of the football. In the playoffs, the Cardinals have beaten the better teams. The biggest key is if Kurt Warner has some time to throw the football. I think he will. Look for Warner to have a big day and to pass for over 300 yards in an amazing, improbable Cardinals victory, 31-21.

@ Steelers -6 Ravens – Steelers

Although I think this spread is way too high for this third match up of the season, I am sticking with the Steelers. In the previous two games this season between these teams, the Steelers won on a field goal in overtime and on a questionable touchdown call by the officials in the final minutes of the game. The teams could not have played much closer. I am picking the Steelers because I give them the edge over the Ravens in several areas. The Steelers are better at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. The Ravens’ offensive line is better.

On the defensive side of the ball, I think the teams are even except that Baltimore has a better secondary. In the Special Teams phase, I give a slight advantage to the Ravens, but I like Jeff Reed over Matt Stover, because of how tricky it is to kick longer field goals at Heinz Field. Reed has a 50-yarder at Heinz and I think that is way out of Stover’s range at this point in his career. The cold weather will not affect either team. After watching the Ravens play the Titans, the Steelers can run the football on this team. The Titans moved the football up and down the field, but their turnovers killed them. Look for the Steelers to limit turnovers, score a few touchdowns, and win this game, 27-13.


Playoff Picks: 6-2
Regular Season Picks: 134-114-8
Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

Wrap Up - Week 19

My Picks

@Titans -3 Ravens

Give Titans’ running back Chris Johnson the first 100 yard game against the Ravens this year, and give Tennessee the win.

Ravens win this one 13-10. During the first half of this game, I thought this sentence from my preview of this game was going to be prophetic. Then, the Ravens got physical on defense and Chris Johnson disappeared. He was huddled in his parka on the sideline for the entire 2nd half. The Titans dominated this game in total yardage and other statistics, but it was the ability of the Ravens’ defense to force turnovers. Algae Crumpler’s fumble near the goal line was a back-breaker for the Titans.

@Panthers -10 Cardinals

Kurt Warner and company will have no fear. It sounds like Anquan Boldin is going to play. Edgerrin James is happy again. I am starting to feel the Cardinals’ momentum. There is always an exception that proves a rule and a Cardinals’ win will prove that they cannot win on the East Coast.

Cards win this game 33-13. I felt good about this pick on Friday night, but I felt great about the pick when I saw that no one on Fox or CBS picked the Cards. Boldin did not play, but the Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald more than made up for his absence. Kurt Warner played his normal game, but Jake Delhomme was out of sync the whole game. He was awful. Once again, turnovers were the big story of this game and Delhomme had a fumble and five interceptions. A remarkable win for the Cardinals.

@Giants -4 Eagles

The Eagles are the flavor of the month in these NFL playoffs. Forget about it. Forget about the absence of Plaxico Burress. The Giants are going to manhandle these guys.

I am not sure I could have been more wrong about this game. The Eagles won 23-11. Eli Manning played about as well as Jake Delhomme played last night. Manning could not throw into the wind at all. The Eagles’ defensive line played better than the Giants’ offensive line. The Eagles stopped them on short yardage several times in the 4th quarter. Eagles play at the Cardinals next week. Are you kidding me?

@Steelers -6 Chargers

The key match-up in this game is not one player versus another player. The Steelers’ Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau has to find a way to stop Chargers’ running back Darren Sproles. LeBeau only has about 50 years of experience in the NFL, so I believe he will come up with a game plan to stop Sproles.

The Steelers won this game 35-24. I have been watching the NFL for about 25 years and I have never seen a quarter like the 3rd quarter in this game. The Steelers ran every play except one. Sproles was held in check until a long TD pass in garbage time. The Chargers had two turnovers--a muffed punt and an interception. The most valuable player for the Steelers was running back Willie Parker. Parker had over 130 yards rushing. He looked better and healthier in this game than he has looked all season. Next week’s game with the Ravens is going to be fun to watch.


Playoff Picks: 6-2
Regular Season: 134-114-8
Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

NFL - Divisional Playoff Games

My Picks

@Titans -3 Ravens – Titans
I like almost everything about the Ravens. Their running back tandem of McClain and McGahee is formidable. Their run defense and the playmakers they have on defense are unbelievable. They have played a tough schedule and their only losses all year are to the best teams in the NFL. The two problems I have with them are that they are starting a rookie quarterback and that they are playing the early game on Saturday after a short work week. The lack of preparation time and rest is going to come back to haunt them in this game. I am not a big fan of Kerry Collins, but he has played better than Joe Flacco this season. Give Titans’ running back Chris Johnson the first 100 yard game against the Ravens this year, and give Tennessee the win.

@Panthers -10 Cardinals - Cardinals
Surprisingly, this game is the hardest to pick. That 10 point spread is daunting in an NFL playoff game. The Panthers should blow the Cardinals out. They are undefeated at home this season. WR Steve Smith is playing at an All Pro level (does anyone even remember or care that he punched a teammate in training camp and missed two games?). The problem for the Panthers is that they played the Cardinals a few weeks ago. The Cardinals really should have won that game. Kurt Warner and company will have no fear. It sounds like Anquan Boldin is going to play. Edgerrin James is happy again. I am starting to feel the Cardinals’ momentum. There is always an exception that proves a rule and a Cardinals’ win will prove that they cannot win on the East Coast. Take the Cards and do not forget about the 10 points.

@Giants -4 Eagles - Giants
The Eagles are the flavor of the month in these NBA playoffs. Forget about it. Forget about the absence of Plaxico Burress. The Giants are going to manhandle these guys. The key player to me is the Giants’ Brandon Jacobs. In limited time in the last game against the Eagles, he averaged over 5 yards per carry. When intra-divisional teams play that know each other so well, offensive execution is vital. The Giants offensive line is a disciplined unit. They will make their blocks and Jacobs will pound the ball between the tackles.

@Steelers -6 Chargers – Steelers
The key match-up in this game is not one player versus another player. The Steelers’ Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau has to find a way to stop Chargers’ running back Darren Sproles. LeBeau only has about 50 years of experience in the NFL, so I believe he will come up with a game plan to stop Sproles. Sproles reminds me of old school Browns’ running back Eric Metcalf. Fast and elusive in space, but if you can get a hand on him he will go down. The Steelers are the best tackling team in the NFL. Sproles might find out exactly what it means to be a featured back in the NFL. Plus, I cannot take another week of Philip Rivers. Rivers needs to look out for linebackers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley.


Playoff Picks: 4-0
Regular Season: 134-114-8
Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

Wrap Up - Wild Card Weekend

My Picks

Falcons -2 @Arizona – Arizona

*Michael Turner has not played great on the road this year. If the Cardinals can stop the run and contain Turner, they will win this game.

Arizona did exactly what I thought they needed to do to win the game. Turner only had about 40 yards rushing. Matt Ryan made a few costly mistakes. Arizona won this game 30-24 behind Kurt Warner and a great performance from running back Edgerrin James.

Colts -1 @Chargers – Chargers

*The Chargers’ familiarity with Peyton Manning is vital. I am not a big fan of Philip Rivers, but I like the dynamic duo of Tomlinson and Sproles.

Chargers won this game 23-17 with a touchdown in overtime. I definitely am glad that I mentioned Sproles in my preview of this game. Sproles was the best player on the field. I also thought the crowd would be a factor. Despite Manning’s post game assertion that the crowd did not affect the Colts, the offense had several penalties in the first half.

Ravens -3 @Dolphins – Ravens

*Usually, I would go with the better quarterback, Chad Pennington of the Dolphins, but I still believe in the Ravens’ defense. Safety Ed Reed always makes big plays.

Behind a stifling defense, the Ravens won this game 27-9. Ed Reed made two huge interceptions. The Dolphins seemed like they were going to make a comeback, but Pennington fumbled a hand-off on a reverse. That play stopped a potential touchdown drive. The Titans are in real trouble against these Ravens next week.

Eagles -3 @Vikings – Eagles

*The Eagles have a huge advantage at quarterback, and surprisingly, the Eagles have a better group of wide receivers and pass catching running backs.

The Eagles won this game 26-14. Donovan McNabb was not great today. The Eagles really made a lot of mistakes, but they were clearly the best team on the field. In the 2nd half, the big play was 71 yard touchdown on a screen pass to Brian Westbrook.

Playoff Picks: 4-0
Regular Season Picks: 134-114-8
Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Weekend

My Picks

Falcons -2 @Arizona – Arizona
I live in Atlanta, so I have been following the Falcons very closely this season. They have played great. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and the offense have received much of the praise, but the Falcons’ defense has performed way above expectations. However, the Cardinals are going to win this game. The Cardinals are just a little better in some key areas. I give the edge to the Cardinals at the quarterback position, at head coach, and on the offensive line. Michael Turner has not played great on the road this year. If the Cardinals can stop the run and contain Turner, they will win this game.

Eagles -3 @Vikings – Eagles
The Eagles are the hottest team in the NFC. They survived a very tough schedule this season. Coach Andy Reid is Coach Brad Childress’ mentor. He knows how Childress likes to call plays and so does Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. The Eagles have a huge advantage at quarterback, and surprisingly, the Eagles have a better group of wide receivers and pass catching running backs. Playoff experience is very important and the Eagles still have players from their long playoff runs earlier this decade. This game looks like a two touchdown win for the Eagles.

Ravens -3 @Dolphins – Ravens
This game is a rematch of a regular season game won by the Ravens. I think this game is going to be low scoring and a very close victory for the Ravens. The Dolphins have benefited from a very easy schedule in their division and against the NFC West. On the other hand, the Ravens have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. Usually, I would go with the better quarterback, Chad Pennington of the Dolphins, but I still believe in the Ravens’ defense. Safety Ed Reed always makes big plays.

Colts -1 @Chargers – Chargers
The Chargers’ crowd last week against Denver was as loud as any I had watched all season. The crowd is going to be a major factor in this game. I also think the Chargers are the younger, more athletic team. The Chargers’ secondary matches up very well with the Colts’ wide receivers. The best player for the Colts this weekend probably will be TE Dallas Clark. He is the key player the Chargers must stop. These two teams have played several games over the past few seasons. The Chargers’ familiarity with Peyton Manning is vital. I am not a big fan of Philip Rivers, but I like the dynamic duo of Tomlinson and Sproles. The Chargers defy the odds and win this game.