Monday, October 27, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 8

Start’em

Drew Brees, Saints. Is there anyone playing better than Brees right now? In the London game, he was 30-41 for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns. That is a 73% completion percentage. Even with key guys injured, he spreads the football around to other players. The three touchdowns were caught by Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and TE Mark Campbell.

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. Delhomme came into this game as the 18th ranked Fantasy quarterback. He is a solid Fantasy #2 option, but this week he played like a starter. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns. Delhomme has some good weapons and WR Steve Smith turned a short pass into a 65 yard touchdown play.

Frank Gore, Niners. The Niners are a mess. Coach Singletary kicked one of his own players off the field. I like that style. Once again, Gore was a solid play. He deserves more touches. He finished the game with 18 rushes for 94 yards and 7 receptions for 65 yards. You pretty much can pencil Gore in for his 10 Fantasy points every week.

Jericho Cotchery, Jets. It was a surprise to see the Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles played this week. Cotchery did not score a touchdown, but he came through for the Jets with a big game. He caught 9 of Brett Favre’s passes for 102 yards. The Jets’ offense still is unpredictable, but they are letting Favre throw a ton in their wins.

Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers. The Buccaneers looked great in prime time last week, but the Cowboys were able to control their offense in Week 8. The Buccaneers did not score a touchdown. Bryant had 7 receptions for only 46 yards. The short passing game is Jeff Garcia’s bread and butter, but Dallas was able to limit Bryant’s ability to run after making the catch. I would not give up on this passing combination.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ryan struggled a little, but finished the game with very good numbers. The two interceptions hurt his statistics and the Falcons chance to win. He ended up 23-44 for 277 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His 12 yards per completion shows he can get the football downfield. Both touchdowns were to Roddy White. Ryan made a great throw into a tight window on the 55 yard touchdown pass. Ryan is trending upward, and he is a great pick up right now if you need quarterback help.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants. This Giants versus Steelers game was very physical. Both defenses were flying all over the field and hitting people. The Steelers were able to keep Jacobs out of the end zone with a huge goal line stand. Jacobs finished the game with 53 total rushing and receiving yards.

Justin Fargas, Raiders. Fargas finished the game with 12 rushes for 24 yards. He earned a paltry one Fantasy point. Thankfully, I did not have to watch one play of this Raiders and Ravens game. The Raiders have quality players on offense, but I would hesitate to play any of them against a quality defensive team.

Vincent Jackson, Chargers. Jackson clearly is Philip Rivers’ favorite target in the red zone. He is a big target that can go up and catch fade routes and score across the middle. He had 4 catches for 60 yards and 1 touchdown. Jackson is a must start for Fantasy owners.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. Harrison has lost a step. There is not doubt about it. The Colts’ offense is not executing like they have for the past five years. Harrison has 1 catch for 12 yards. Several other times Manning tried to get him the football, but he was either not open or Manning made a bad throw.

Totals: 7-3 (Overall 44-28-5)

My Picks

Wins: Rams, Ravens, Miami, Eagles, Browns, Titans
Losses: Buccaneers, Jets, Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, Niners
Push: Lions, Panthers
Total: 6-6-2 (Overall 61-50-5)

Fantasy Games. This season has been a nightmare so far. Every time I need a player to come through for me, the guy has a bad game. Every time I need an opponent’s player to have a bad game, that player comes through with big Fantasy points. This season has been so unpredictable. Tonight is a microcosm of my season. The Titans’ kicker Rob Bironas is my kicker. I am behind in the game by 11 points. Bironas has made 20 straight field goals. He needs one more make to set the Titans’ team record and give me a tie with lots of time remaining in this game. Of course, Bironas goes out and pull hooks a 43 yard attempt. Oh, now the Titans are going for a 2 point conversion instead of letting Bironas kick the extra point. Bironas from 48 yards…yes! Jubilation!

Friday, October 24, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 8

Byes: Bears, Broncos, Packers, Vikings

Start’em

Drew Brees, Saints. Yes, Brees struggled for the first time all year last week against the Panthers, but do not take him out of your lineup. The Saints’ offense is hurting with Reggie Bush out, Jeremy Shockey at half speed, and Marques Colston still rounding into shape. Those injuries just mean that Brees is going to have to throw the football more! Also, Deuce McCallister should run the football better than Bush between the tackles. The threat of the inside running game will bring the Chargers’ safeties up closer to the line of scrimmage, and Brees can hit some long throws off play-action fakes.

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. The Panther are at home against the Cardinals who are coming off the bye week. Hopefully, during the bye week, the Cards came up with some schemes to stop teams from scoring at will against them. I doubt it. Delhomme should find receivers Smith and Muhammad open all over the field. This game is a high scoring affair with Delhomme putting up over 250 yards passing.

Frank Gore, Niners. Coach Mike Nolan is out, and Coach Mike Singletary is in as the Niners’ head coach. Can Singletary control O-Coordinator Mike Martz? Yes. Look for the Niners to try to run the football more with Singletary at the helm. Plus, they are playing the Seahawks at home. The Seahawks’ defense is undersized and simply not very good right now.

Jericho Cotchery, Jets. Cotchery has been up and down all season. Last week, the Raiders had the skill players in the secondary to match up with Cotchery and Coles on the outside. Cotchery is small and he is not great at beating press coverage and getting separation from defenders. Luckily, he will not have that problem this week against the Chiefs at home. The Chiefs were embarrassed last week against the run. Look for them to sell out to stop the run and for Favre to throw about 45 times on Sunday.

Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers. Sometimes, we forget that, just like we do against old bosses, NFL players hold grudges against other teams. Although it was under the Bill Parcells’ regime, Bryant’s terrible time as a Cowboy has to fire him up this week. Bryant is a big wide receiver and he looks like he is improving every week. Here is the scenario: Bryant’s anger plus Garcia’s feisty toughness multiplied by Dallas’ terrible secondary equals big Fantasy points.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. The Falcons are kind of my adopted team and Ryan looks like a great draft pick. He has a bright future, but this week will be a learning on-the-job situation. Playing the Eagles reminds me of the Tampa Bay game--on the road, on grass, against a blitz-happy defensive coordinator, with a Pro Bowl caliber secondary. Ryan is the man for the Falcons, just not this week.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants. What a difference a NFL year makes in Fantasy football. In the 2007 draft, Fantasy owners would have laughed if Jacobs was a high draft pick. This year he literally is running over defensive backs in every game. His highlight reel is going to be ridiculous. However, his match up this week is bad. The Steelers’ defense is hard to run against, but even harder to score touchdowns against on the ground.

Justin Fargas, Raiders. When someone just reads the names of the Raiders’ offensive players, you might think, “Hey that’s not a bad lineup.” The problems start when those guys have to perform on the field. Unless you are out of options, I would sit every Raider player this week against the Ravens.

Vincent Jackson, Chargers. This NFL goes to London game is hard to predict. The teams have been across the Atlantic Ocean all week doing press, practicing, and getting ready for the game. The normal routine is non-existent. Last year, the weather was awful. This is a great match up for Jackson, but only if the game were in America. Sit him this week.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. Harrison has lost a step. The knee injury and surgery from last year has slowed him down. In every game, you see at least one pass that in year’s past would have been a big play completion. I wonder if Harrison is able to work with Peyton Manning and run routes in pre-game like he used. Plus, the Titans’ secondary will blanket Harrison. This game might be an ugly loss for the Colts.

My Picks

@Eagles -9 Falcons - Eagles
@Panthers -4 Cardinals - Panthers
Chargers -3.5 @Saints - Chargers
@Jets -13.5 Chiefs - Jets
@Ravens -7 Raiders - Ravens
@Cowboys -2.5 Buccaneers - Buccaneers
Bills -1.5 @Dolphins - Miami
Redskins -8 @Lions - Lions
@Patriots -7.5 Rams - Rams
@Texans -9 Bengals - Bengals
@Jaguars -7 Browns - Browns
@Steelers -3 Giants - Steelers
@Niners -5 Seahawks - Niners
@Titans -3.5 Colts - Titans

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Romo Dilemma

*Named in honor of the Prisoner’s Dilemma (check Wikipedia or several other sources for more information) in game theory, the Romo dilemma is a situation for Fantasy owners when one of your options is to start your franchise quarterback even though he likely is not the starter for the real game—what we have here is a developing situation kind of dilemma.

All last week, I was glued to the Tony Romo story, because Romo is my starting quarterback for my team the Dark Knights. This team is struggling and I need Romo. Fantasy owners know what I mean when I say “need”—there is a desperation there. I picked up Brad Johnson on the waiver wire with the idea that the Cowboys’ have enough weapons for him to score some Fantasy points. After reports that Romo did not practice on Friday, I made the change and started Johnson. All day Saturday, I was uncomfortable (think Sarah Palin in newly bought threads from Sak’s 5th Avenue standing between Alec Baldwin and Lorne Michaels on SNL) and looking at other scenarios.

Here was the process. I figured I had three options: start Johnson; gamble and start Romo; or pick up a 3rd quarterback who was guaranteed to start and play most of the snaps. Find someone on the Fantasy football scrap heap that no one in a competitive league has picked up all year. No really winning options--it kind of reminded me of when I had Bryant Westbrook. He never practiced and from week to week I never knew if he was going to play or not.

The number one option was to start Johnson and just hope that he played well. He has T.O., Crayton, Barber, Miles Austin, Roy Williams, uh oh. Okay, maybe he does not have that many offensive weapons, but Barber and T.O. can take short receptions and turn them into touchdowns. Plus, I figured the Cowboys for a huge lead. They could run the football and set up safe play-action passes against a lackluster Rams’ defense.

Secondly, I could start Romo. If Johnson started off badly or Dallas was behind, Romo might come in and work only out of the shotgun. Throw on every down and complete a ton of passes--Cinderella story, Favrian toughness, Don’t mess with Texas, Tony the Tiger, Brady with Midwestern grit, etc. The Cowboys win 27-21 in a stunningly close game. Romo writes another story in his march towards greatness, blah, blah, blah. In my Fantasy league, I look like a genius and add to my somewhat modest but growing legend. On Saturday while watching Texas play Missouri, I made the switch back to Romo, even though the reports were that Johnson would start.

Starting a guy in a Fantasy game that is not even starting in the real game makes no sense to me. Doing that goes against my Fantasy 101 pamphlet. During breakfast on Sunday, I switched back to Brad Johnson. (My regular back up is Kurt Warner who I stole with a very late draft pick. I had to endure the, Why are you drafting him? Leinart’s the starter…trash talk from a room of ten self-proclaimed football experts. It would have been perfect to play Warner except the Cardinals happen to be on their bye week.) So, about 90 minutes before game time, I was firmly behind Brad Johnson.

My third option was to pick up another available starting quarterback and start them for a one week stop-gap measure. In my league, the available quarterbacks likely to start and maybe to produce were Kerry Collins, Gus Frerotte, and Jeff Garcia. Collins had the best match up going against the Chiefs’ sad defense. You knew they were going to win, but would they even need to throw the football. When I thought for minute and could not name a starting wide receiver, I marked Collins off the list. Frerotte was intriguing for two reasons. He has a solid running game with Adrian Peterson. The Bears defense is a tough match-up, but they would probably sell out to stop Peterson. Also, the week before I had watched Matt Ryan pass for over 300 yards against the Bears. I was hesitant because I figured this game to be low scoring (turns out that was way off base). Bears versus Vikings in Chicago, the windy city. Weather could be a factor. Natural grass. Urlacher, Jared Allen. To me, those factors added together to get a low scoring defensive struggle.

So, I turned to Jeff Garcia. Garcia with solid stats led Tampa to a big win the week before against Carolina. The Bucs were playing in prime time at home against the Seahawks who are not very good. I already had picked up Warrick Dunn to plug into another bye week hole in the roster. I thought there was a better chance to for this game to be a high scoring affair. So, I added Garcia and dropped Brad Johnson. Johnson dropped all the way from Fantasy starter to free agent. Garcia ended up having the best game of any quarterback and he led me to a much needed, desperate come from behind win. However, now I have a mini-quarterback controversy on my hands with Garcia, Romo, and Warner on the roster.

Quick Slants:

Think about the difference in the reputation and character of Kellen Winslow, Sr. and Kellen Winslow, Jr. Winslow, Jr. may have a legitimate complaint about the staph infections that seem to infect Browns’ players, but his reputation is so low that most people will not even listen to him. I am old enough to remember the elder Winslow’s performance in the Chargers versus Dolphins playoff game. I am starting to have a bad case of nostalgia during these down economic times.

I am trying to grow my hair out and get the John Parker Wilson hair style. Not sure my wife or my boss is too happy about it, but you have to be committed to something.

Rodney Harrison is not a Hall of Famer. He is consummate professional and an impact player, but he also is an admitted cheater. If he is on your team, you defend him to the maximum. Everyone forgets he was suspended by the NFL for buying HGH.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 7

Start’em

Brett Favre, Jets. Like many people, I saw the end of this game. Favre pulled one of his great escapes in his own end zone; then he found Chansi Stuckey for a 31 yard gain. Somehow, he got the Jets in field goal position for Jay Feely to tie the game. Incredible effort, but Favre’s numbers for the game were 21-38 for 197 yards and two interceptions. Clearly, despite the end of game heroics, this was not one of Favre’s best games and a loss for me.

Matt Schaub, Texans. Quietly, Schaub is emerging as a must start for Fantasy owners. Having Andre Johnson at wide receiver is a major factor in his production. Schaub was 26-31 for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns. His completion percentage was outstanding. Both touchdowns were to TE Owen Daniels. More importantly for Schaub, he did not throw an interception. Interceptions have killed his Fantasy points in other games this year.

Steven Jackson, Rams. I wish I could have watched this game. Jackson must have been awesome. He finished the game with 176 combined rushing and receiving yards with 3 touchdowns. On the highlight of his 56 yard rushing touchdown, he burst through the hole and barely was touched on the way to the end zone. Fantasy owners who have been burned by Jackson for a season and a half are smiling this week.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. Cleveland is too hard to figure out. The offense was crisp and fired on all cylinders against the Giants on MNF. Playing on the road in the NFL is very difficult, but the Browns looked like a totally different team. Lewis had a solid, if not great game, with 98 combined rushing and receiving yards for 6 Fantasy points.

Calvin Johnson, Lions. Johnson owners had to be worried for most of this game, but one big play turned this receiver’s whole day around. He only had 2 catches, but those grabs went for a career high 154 yards and 1 touchdown. He also caught a 2-point conversion. If QB Dan Orlovsky continues to improve, Johnson is really the only big play option in the Lions’ passing attack.

Sit’em

Jay Cutler, Broncos. Cutler banged his thumb and hand on a Patriots’ helmet on the very first play from scrimmage. He stayed in the game, but he definitely looks injured. Cutler finished the game with 168 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He just did not look like himself after the injury and after the Patriots started blowing the Broncos out of the stadium.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings. There must be something about the city of Chicago that appeals to AP. Last year, he played great at Soldier Field and this Sunday he was exceptional again. He had 22 carries for 121 yards (5.5 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns. His 54 yard rushing touchdown displayed the speed and power of 2007. He added one reception for 9 yards and finished with 20 total Fantasy points. Once again, proof to me that you have to start your high draft choices every week.

Julius Jones, Seahawks. How far have the Seahawks fallen this year without Matt Hasselbeck? Wow, they looked awful against a great Tampa Bay defense. Jones had 7 rushes for 42 yards. If you own Jones, you might want to consider dropping him after this week. Maurice Morris is back and it is hard to tell if the Seahawks will be able to move the football against anybody.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals. Even with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, the Bengals’ offense showed some life against the Steelers. They scored on their longest touchdown drive in two years. Houshmandzadeh finished the game with 8 catches for 58 yards and 3 total Fantasy points. Watching the game, it seems like Fitzpatrick looks more for Chad Johnson. If you have Houshmandzadeh, you have to be concerned until Carson Palmer returns.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings. I picked up Berrian on the waiver wire, and then I talked myself into not playing him this week. He torched me and the Bears for 6 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. Having a great game against the bears had to feel good for Berrian. If he is healthy, he is a must starter for the next few weeks.

Totals: 7-3 (Overall 38-25-5)

My Picks

Wins: Steelers, Titans, Bears, Packers, Patriots
Losses: Chargers, Saints, Dolphins, Cowboys, Niners, Texans, Redskins, Jets, Buccaneers
Total: 5-9 (Overall 55-44-3)

Fantasy Games. When Tony Romo hurt his pinkie last Sunday, I was not too worried. My back up is Kurt Warner and I just figured to plug him into the line up. Wrong. Warner and the Cardinals were on a bye week. Thus, the week passed by with me checking everyday on Romo and his playing status. I picked up Brad Johnson on waivers. Sunday morning I woke up with Johnson in the starting line up, but never felt comfortable about it. That gut feeling led to a long breakdown of who else to pick up and play. I ended up choosing Jeff Garcia, playing him, and winning a very close game.

Ties in Fantasy Football? Last week, we had a tie game in my Dallas league. The Giants defense was unable to score a point against the Cleveland Browns and that left two teams with a tie score. A couple of years ago our commissioner held a vote and our league decided to break ties by going to the decimal point. I am in favor of the idea, because I think it makes the playoff picture much clearer at the end of the year. I also play in an Atlanta league and in that league they allow ties. Two questions: Are you for ties in Fantasy regular season? And what do you think is the best way to break a tie game? Leave a comment.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Start'em of Sit'em - Week 7

Byes: Cardinals, Falcons, Jaguars, Eagles

Start’em

Brett Favre, Jets. Favre had a tough Fantasy game this week against the Bengals, but expect him to bounce back with a great match up against the Raiders. The Raiders’ defense is giving up 234 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks. The main key for Favre is to avoid turning the football ball over. Favre should be fired up going into Oakland and playing in front of that hostile crowd.

Matt Schaub, Texans. The Texans are playing the Lions this week. That fact should be all that you need to know, but here are two others: the Lions’ defense gives up 250 yards passing per game; secondly, opposing teams have scored 9 passing touchdowns and been intercepted only once. Start any Texans’ players that you have in Week 7.

Steven Jackson, Rams. Fantasy owners have been burned by Jackson for a season and a half. He was probably a first round draft pick in your league, but in reality, he is a number 2 option at running back. However, I like the way Jackson is playing and he is coming off a solid game against the Redskins. The forecast is for Jackson to gain over 100 yards rushing and receiving with at least one touchdown.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. My modus operandi this season has been to fall for whoever plays well on Monday Night Football. Lewis also played well in Cleveland’s game against Cincinnati before the bye week. The best thing about Lewis is that in an NFL dominated by the two running back system, he is the Browns’ main option in short yardage situations. If they get close to the end zone, Lewis gets the football.

Calvin Johnson, Lions. I know Johnson suffered a concussion in the game against Minnesota. I know Roy Williams was traded to Dallas this week. I know Jon Kitna is out for the year. But, someone on the Lions has to have plays called for them and to score touchdowns. Expect Johnson to play and expect his targets to increase, because the Lions literally have no one else on offense.

Sit’em

Jay Cutler, Broncos. Cutler’s play has leveled off after a couple of big early season games. In the Broncos’ last road game against Kansas City, he was intercepted twice. This week the Broncos play at New England against a wounded, embarrassed Patriots’ defense

Adrian Peterson, Vikings. Conventional Fantasy wisdom is that you always start your star players. But, if you take a hard look at Peterson’s numbers this year, he is producing like a 2nd level running back. Everyone keeps waiting for him to have a monster game, but the Bears will stop him this week on the grass of Soldier Field. I watched the Bears against the Falcons in Week 6. The Bears’ defense stops the run and makes Gus Frerotte beat them.

Julius Jones, Seahawks. I was one of the first people to recommend starting Julius Jones last month. Jones is now off the must start list and on the bench. Maurice Morris should be back for the Seahawks. Plus, the Tampa Bay defense is getting stronger by the week. Monte Kiffin’s “Tampa 2” is 9th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. They give up under 90 yards per game on the ground.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals. Houshmandzadeh twisted his ankle in the Bengals’ loss to the Jets. He came back into the game and probably will play this week. Keep an eye on his status, because he might be a game time decision. He would have a tough statistical week going against the Steelers, but his value is lowered even more by the Bengals starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in total defense.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings. I just read one Fantasy column that said that Berrian is red hot and a must start this week. Berrian has killed my teams in the past. Right when you start believing he is going to consistently have good games, he disappears. Two above average games in a row is his maximum. Give Berrian a week off if you have another option at wide receiver.

My Picks

@Dolphins -3 Ravens - Dolphins
Cowboys -7 @Rams - Cowboys
@Bears -3 Vikings - Bears
@Panthers -3 Saints - Saints
Steelers -9.5 @Bengals - Steelers
@Bills -1 Chargers - Chargers
@Giants -10.5 Niners - Niners
Titans -9 @Chiefs - Titans
@Texans -9.5 Lions - Texans
@Redskins -7.5 Browns - Redskins
@Packers -1.5 Colts - Packers
Jets -3 @Raiders - Jets
@Buccaneers -10.5 Seahawks - Buccaneers
@Patriots -3.5 Broncos - Patriots

State of The Hills. I just finished watching three episodes of The Hills during the third debate between Senators Obama and McCain. I have been into this political race since last year at this time, and frankly I am tired. I am ready for November. The pundits, talking heads, political spin doctors (I used to like the Spin Doctors) are driving me crazy. Maybe I am wrong about this, but I would just like for someone smart to run this country--someone that is going to at least in public act like they believe in the basic tenets that America was founded on. I just caught McCain saying that we need a change from the last eight years. His party, the Republican Party, has been in power! As soon as Cheney is out of the White House, we will be better off in this country. Now, the good stuff. When Audrina took off her bikini top, guys all over this country stood up and cheered. The Hills girls are going to Cabo. Nothing good can come of a trip to Cabo. These trips always end badly for LC—remember the first season of Laguna Beach.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 6

Start’em

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Without his main weapon Bryant Westbrook, McNabb bounced back from a mediocre week last week to lead the Eagles to a big win. Correll Buckhalter filled in for Westbrook; and McNabb threw for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns. I think the key statistic for McNabb was that he averaged over 12 yards per completion. When the Eagles passing game is making big plays, they are going to be tough to beat.

Kyle Orton, Bears. Orton’s bandwagon is filling up fast. After this week’s game, more people are going to be looking to pick up Orton. I watched every play of this game and the Bears’ final drive was critical. The Bears’ deserved to win, but their Special Teams let them down. To me it’s simple--you have to kick the ball deep at the end of the game.

Marion Barber, Cowboys. Barber is a warrior. He took so many hits against the Cardinals on Sunday, but he kept getting up. The huge screen play that Barber scored on in the 4th quarter was highlight reel material. Barber only had 45 yards on 17 carries, but he added 11 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. With Romo and Felix Jones out with injuries, Barber should put up big stats every week.

Le’Ron McClain, Ravens. Wow, not sure what happened to the Ravens and McClain this week. Possibly, the physical games they have played the last two weeks caught up with their young running back and aging defense. McClain was awful. He had 2 rushing attempts for -2 yards. He also fumbled. He finished the game with negative Fantasy points. Big loss for me.

Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons. Jenkins is only owned in 15% of Fantasy leagues and he only has been played 5% of the time by Fantasy owners. He had two big catches in the very first Falcons’ offensive possession. It looked like with Roddy White banged up that Jenkins was going to have a great game. However, he only caught two more passes the rest of the day. Jenkins did make the play of the game with his 26 yard catch to set up the game winning field goal. Based on the big catch at the end, I am calling this a tie.

Sit’em

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts. The Ravens killed me in a bunch of different ways. Manning was great against the Ravens; and Marvin Harrison might be back. Manning was 19-28 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. The 67 yard touchdown to Harrison seemed like old times.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Rodgers finished the game 21-30 for 208 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. He also picked up 23 more yards rushing with a touchdown and a fumble. Rodgers was superb. Although he did not pass for a lot of yards, he was able to get the Packers a win and put up 21 Fantasy points. I am officially off the “Rodgers is not Favre” bandwagon.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Tough week for the West Virginia product. Slaton finished the game with 15 carries for 58 yards. He was able to grab another Fantasy point with a 3 yard reception. Although he had a sub-par game this week, Slaton is a solid number 2 running back. The Texans’ passing game will continue to open up running room for Slaton.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. I thought Jones-Drew would be limited by an injury, but he was forced to play most of the game after the Broncos knocked Fred Taylor out of the game. Jones-Drew came up with a huge performance. He carried the ball 22 for 125 yards and 2 TDs. He added 23 yards receiving. The Broncos’ defense continues to give up big games by opposing running backs.

Randy Moss, Patriots. This game might be what the Patriots are like this year on the road against a good NFL team. Moss looked disinterested. He finished 3 catches for 26 yards. Patriots’ fans better get prepared for more of this kind of game.

Totals: 5-4-1 (Overall 31-22-5)

My Picks

Wins: Saints, Dolphins, Jets, Lions, Jaguars, Packers, Chargers
Losses: Bears, Ravens, Panthers, Redskins, Niners, Cowboys, Giants
Total: 7-7 (Overall 50-35-3)

Fantasy Games. My teams are struggling, but I have a chance to get a win depending on how well Braylon Edwards plays against the Giants. My opponent is behind by 9 points, but he has Edwards and Kellen Winslow playing against the Giants. Luckily for me, Winslow is out, so I just need the Giants to stop Edwards. My big worry is the garbage time when Brady Quinn gets into the game and tries to force the ball to Edwards. Stay tuned. If you watched the game, you know Braylon Edwards had a monster game. I ended up going 0-2 this week in Fantasy.

Great Football Weekend! I watched parts of 9 different college and pro games this weekend. You could write a week’s worth of blogs about all the crazy plays and big performances this week. It is not hard to see why football has become so popular in this country. In addition to football, the MLB playoffs have been in full swing—this is one of the best months to be a sports fan.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 6

Start’em

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. I have a strong feeling that the Niners are going to win this game, but McNabb is going to put up huge numbers this week. Bryant Westbrook is a game time decision. One hard hit could knock Westbrook and his sore ribs out of the game. To win, McNabb will have to throw 40+ times. Look for McNabb to throw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Kyle Orton, Bears. Orton’s bandwagon is filling up fast. His Fantasy numbers have increased each of the past two games. The key to Chicago’s success is strong offensive line play. The running game with Matt Forte has opened up throwing options for Orton. Plus, Orton has a great match up this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons won last week, but their secondary has been getting torched by quarterbacks all year.

Marion Barber, Cowboys. Barber is on one of my Fantasy teams. He usually is a must starter, but the Cowboys have limited his touches the last two games. Against Arizona, look for Barber to bounce back in a big way. This game will be a high scoring shoot out. Expect the Cowboys to build a lead and then rely on Barber and Felix Jones to control the clock in the 2nd half.

Le’Ron McClain, Ravens. Since his game against the Steelers two weeks ago, McClain has been on my radar. He is huge and difficult to bring down. He also catches the football very well out of the backfield. Start McClain for two reasons--Willis McGahee is banged up and the Ravens play an undersized, struggling Colts’ defense.

Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons. Wide receiver is the most volatile position in Fantasy. Picking the right starters each week is usually a gamble. Starting Jenkins is a risk, but he could be a big part of the Falcons’ offense this week. The Bears should be focused on shutting down Roddy White. Also, White might not be at full strength. I see Jenkins catching a long touchdown pass from Matt Ryan.

Sit’em

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts. You probably have to start Manning because of how high you drafted him; but if you have another option at QB this week, consider another starter. The Ravens have shut down every quarterback this year. Their defense is definitely back with a vengeance. Unless the Colts run the football with Joseph Addai, they are in for a long and physical game.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. I know, I know. Rodgers is the 3rd best player in Fantasy points. You have to start him. Maybe not. Rodgers is hurt, and his match up this week against Seattle decreases his value. Seattle must play well this week. At home in Quest Field, the Seahawks shut down Rodgers and the Packers.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Slaton has emerged from obscurity to become a solid No. 2 Fantasy running back, but this week he comes back to reality. The Dolphins’ defense is underrated. They shut down San Diego last week. And, I am not sure the Texans can bounce back after that devastating loss to the Colts. Slaton is a future starter but it depends on his match up.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. This pick might not be fair, because Jones-Drew is battling an ankle injury. The problem is that he tries to play hurt and is not that effective. If you have Fred Jones of the Jags, start him instead.

Randy Moss, Patriots. Matt Cassel’s first prime time game = a terrible performance. Moss will get some targets and catches, but he will not be able to get deep this week. The Chargers secondary led my Antonio Cromartie rises to the challenge this week and keeps Moss out of the end zone.

My Picks

Bears -3 @Falcons - Bears
Cowboys -5 @Cardinals - Cowboys
Packers -1 @Seahawks - Packers
@Chargers -5 Patriots - Chargers
Eagles -4.5 @Niners - Niners
@Saints -6.5 Raiders - Saints
@Colts -3.5 Ravens - Ravens
@Texans -3 Dolphins - Dolphins
@Jets -9 Bengals - Jets
@Broncos -3 Jaguars - Jaguars
@Buccaneers -1.5 Panthers - Panthers
Giants -7.5 @Browns - Giants
@Vikings -13 Lions - Lions
@Redskins -13 Rams - Redskins

Fantasy Games. I drafted Ryan Grant with my second round pick and have not even played him in a game this year. He has to start for me this week because Marshawn Lynch is on a bye. Grant needs to come up with a big game and maybe a couple of touchdowns. The TE position has killed me all year. This week I picked up Dustin Keller of the Jets. I have been on Team Favre since July, so maybe that move will work out this week.

State of the Union. Here is an anecdote to illuminate the sad state of our economy. Tonight after work, I went to the local liquor store to buy beer. A year ago, I probably buy a twelve pack of a quality beer. I saw a 6 pack of Icehouse that had a wrong price sticker on it. The store just forgot to remove the old, marked down price. I grabbed that 6 pack like it was a pre-foreclosure 4 bedroom home in Buckhead for $200,000. Getting any kind of deal right now is tremendous, but a little sad.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Quick Slants - Week 5

Waiver Wire:

If you are looking for someone to pick up this week to fill in for Big Ben, do not pick up Sage Rosenfels. After his total melt down against the Colts, he should be banished by Coach Kubiak for a few weeks. If you are desperate this week, take a hard look at three veteran QBs that are available in most leagues--Chad Pennington, Gus Frerotte, and Marc Bulger. I quickly am getting on the Miami Dolphins’ bandwagon. Pennington’s value is raised by the Dolphins’ commitment to the running game and the return to form of Ronnie Brown. Pennington always has spread the football around to many different receivers. He is capable of winning you a game when your #1 QB is on a bye week. Frerotte benefits from the running game as well. Maybe the bright lights of Monday Night Football are clouding my judgment, but Frerotte reminded me of Kyle Orton this week. The one drawback is that in no way can you count on Bernard Berrian playing well each week. As for Bulger, a few years back he led my team to a Fantasy title in the Kellen Winslow Friendship League. He has a Fantasy kryptonite quality. He could be good or he could be out of the lineup in a few weeks.

Everyone is going to jump on DeAngelo Williams this week. If you can get him, he is a great pick up. The Williams and Johnathan Stewart backfield combination for Carolina is going to be productive all year. Depending on the week, these guys are going to be splitting carries and Fantasy points. Both running backs are solid #2 options. The second running back to take a hard look at this week is Kevin Faulk of the Patriots. I still am a Patriots’ doubter and I actually dropped Faulk last week, but if Moss plays hard and is a deep threat, the field is opened up for the running backs.

At wide receiver, the choices are pretty slim. Slot receivers might be the way to go, but do not count on these guys to carry you to wins. Wes Welker is going to start being a bigger factor for the Patriots. If Royal is hurt for Denver, take a chance on Brandon Stokely. I think Cutler likes throwing between the numbers and Stokely will play a bigger role if Royal is out for extended time. My favorite pick up is still Antwaan Randle El. He should get more targets as teams double Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. Finally, a guy way off the radar is Mike Walker of Jacksonville. Garrard has few people to throw to and Walker is a big target downfield.

My Fantasy teams are struggling at the Tight End and Defense position. I have been searching for answers all year. Defensively, I had to pick up the Falcons and the Jets to try to fill spots and get some points. Clearly, I am not comfortable going into games with these defenses. Basically, I have given up on the tight end position. I guess take a shot at Alge Crumpler. Maybe, Justin Peelle from Atlanta. O-Coordinator Mike Mularkey likes to use the tight end especially in the red zone. The Falcons scored on a great 4th down play against Green Bay when Peelle sprinted across the back of the formation and into the flat. Keep in mind, I live in ATL and am forced to watch the Falcons, so that may bias my analysis of Peelle.

My kicker strategy is to carry only one on the roster. This week my guy Rob Bironas is on a bye, so I have to pick someone up. In this situation, I like going with Janikowski. He is capable of making a couple of 50 yarders. After this week, I drop the new guy and go back to Bironas.

State of the Union: The interest in these debates is incredible. I have watched all three without changing the channel. My wife and I usually watch CNN. McCain looked old. I really liked Soledad O’Brien’s shoes on Tuesday night. When she is in Columbus for these debates, I wonder what cool bars she frequents.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 5

Start’em

Kyle Orton, Bears. Once in a while predicting Fantasy you just know a guy is going to have a great game. As soon as I saw Orton’s match up against the Lions, I thought he would be a great waiver wire pick up and play this week. Orton finished the game with 334 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. Orton is improving and has value with more than half of the season left to play.

Matt Schaub / Sage Rosenfels, Texans. Rosenfels played great for about 55 minutes. He had 246 yards passing with a 5 yard TD pass to Andre Johnson. Johnson had a monster game. Rosenfels also had 16 rushing yards and one interception. The two huge fumbles at the end of the game killed the Texans. I like Rosenfels’ numbers, but the huge mistakes at the end are too much to overcome. Call this a tie.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. Was the Patriots’ game a fluke? No chance. Brown and the Dolphins came up big against San Diego. Brown lined up in the shotgun 12 more times this week and averaged over 4 yards per play. He finished the game with 133 combined rushing and receiving yards including a 5 yard rushing touchdown out of the direct snap formation. You must start Brown every week.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Grant entered Week 5 as the 56th ranked running back. In most leagues, he was a very high draft pick. A great sign for Grant owners is that he was not listed on the Packers’ injury report this week. He ended up with 83 combined rushing and receiving yards and had 18 carries. Do not give up on Grant yet. I watched the whole game against the Falcons; and Grant’s explosive running style is very close to being back in action.

Eddie Royal, Broncos. Royal sprained his ankle on a punt return during the 3rd quarter. Up to that point, he had 3 catches for 23 yards. The big question will be whether or not this nagging injury keeps Royal out of the line up. Clearly, this pick was a loss.

Sit’em

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks. Very poor outing for Hasselbeck. I am telling you dealing with New York family issues has to be a factor. Hasselbeck may have suffered a knee injury against the Giants. He threw for 105 yards and had an interception. Hasselbeck is a candidate to be released if you are adding a new player this week.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. Ouch. Johnson had a huge game last week, but his performance against the Panthers has to be one of the worse in his career. He had seven rushing attempts for two yards. His statistics are so low that I had to write out the numbers. You really have to start or sit Johnson based on the Chiefs’ opponent each week.

Lee Evans, Bills. Evans proved me wrong for the second time this year. Evans had two receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown. He added 22 rushing yards. His 87 yard bomb from JP Losman was one of the lone bright spots for the Bills on Sunday. Losman and Evans are a good combination, so if Trent Edwards can not play, keep playing Evans.

Greg Jennings, Packers. Will Aaron Rodgers play? Rodgers played and played great. He clearly was injured, but made some great throws. Jennings caught a 25 yard touchdown pass and finished with 4 catches for 87 yards. Jennings has become one of the best Fantasy players in the NFL. I will not doubt him the rest of the season unless, of course, Rodgers starts missing games.

Minnesota Vikings Defense. The Vikings’ defense is playing well after a shaky start. For a brief moment, I thought the Saints had a chance to score on every possession. Antoine Winfield (OSU product) made some big plays. Vikings look like they are going to win this game.

Totals: 5-4-1 (Overall 26-18-4)

My Picks

Wins: Panthers, Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Redskins, Cardinals, Bengals, Steelers
Losses: Packers, Colts, Niners, Saints
Push: Titans, Broncos
Total: 8-4-2 (Overall 43-28-3)

Fantasy Games. In my two leagues, I had great match ups against teams that had struggled so far this season. In my Dallas league, I was crushed. At one point, the score was 79-27. I closed the gap some, but I need a 40 point night from Reggie Bush to win the game. In my Atlanta league, I played an owner that had yet to win a game this year. In his defense, he had lots of guys on byes last week. His team played well and my guys were terrible. Marion Barber has not scored a touchdown in three weeks. Right now, the game is tied 60-60, but he has the Minnesota Vikings defense. He might have blundered by talking trash on the message board about getting a win, because the Saints might just put up a ton of points in tonight’s game. Hopefully, Reggie Bush morphs into Gale Sayers and scores about 5 touchdowns in this game.

Steeler Football. Why does it seem like every game the Steelers play is a rivalry game? Here is the answer--when the Steelers go on the road, their fans travel as well. When you pay a couple of grand for your season tickets and then you have to sit by Steelers’ fans, you are not happy. Add to that fact that Steelers’ fans that travel are probably talking trash in the stands and you have a rivalry game every week.

Baseball Playoffs. I just watched Kevin Youkilis make a great play at 3rd base against Torii Hunter and the Angels. This post season is the coming out party for Youkilis. One night he plays first base and the next night he is making All Star caliber plays at third base. Great camera shot of Youkilis taking deep breaths and trying to catch his breath after that great play. Great athlete, great ball player. A final question on a baseball subject, is there anything in sports more demoralizing than a dominating starting pitcher?

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 5

Start’em

Kyle Orton, Bears. Maybe these national television games mess up my evaluations, but Orton made some great throws last week against the Eagles. This week he was my recommendation to pick up on the waiver wire. The Bears are putting up points and their running game is working. Look for Orton to have a big game against a very weak Detroit defense.

Matt Schaub, Texans. Indianapolis has to be very careful coming off their bye week and going on the road against Houston. The Texans should have won last week against Jacksonville. This game could be a New Orleans Saints situation from two years ago. Texans return home to a great crowd. Schaub always moves the ball up and down the field. If Andre Johnson can make some big plays, Schaub is looking at a 250 yard game with 2 touchdowns.
***12:10 pm - Sunday. Schaub is sick and Sage Rosenfels will start. Rosenfels should fill in admirably for Schaub, if you have him go with Rosenfels in this spot.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. Was the Patriots’ game a fluke? I don’t think so. The Dolphins probably add a couple of more plays for Brown with a direct snap. The Chargers are flying across the country and their defense has given up points all year long. This is a high-scoring game with Brown having several chances to score in the red zone.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Against the Falcons, this week is the time for Ryan Grant to bust out. He signed a new contract this summer and has not produced. My situation is typical of Grant owners. I drafted him with the first pick of the 2nd round of the draft and have not even played him in a Fantasy game. Most owners have given up on Grant, but with the Aaron Rodgers injury he has to have a great game for the Packers to win.

Eddie Royal, Broncos. The Broncos are at home against a solid Tampa Bay defense. The Broncos still will put up points on Tampa Bay. This game should be another high scoring affair. Royal has been great for a rookie this year. Playing opposite Brandon Marshall, he is close to a must start every week.

Sit’em

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks. The inability of West coast teams to travel to the East coast and play well is well-documented. Seattle was destroyed by the Bills in week 1. Their injured receivers return and that will help Hasselbeck out, but he personally has even more distractions in New York. His brother’s wife probably hounds him for tickets. The Giants defensive line hounds him all day on Sunday. Poor outing for Hasselbeck.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. Johnson had a monster game last week against Denver. Most owners probably are happy and ready to start him every week, but be cautious. This team is the same one that had lost 12 straight games. The Panthers stack the box against Johnson, Peppers goes after the quarterback, and the Panthers win.

Lee Evans, Bills. Bills’ fans must have uttered a simultaneous groan when the news came out about Evans’ contract extension. Evans received a pretty large dollar guarantee for a guy that has been mostly inconsistent. Big party at Evans’ house this week leads to a pedestrian performance this week at Arizona. Too hot out there to play football anyway.

Greg Jennings, Packers. Will Aaron Rodgers play? The answer is critical for Fantasy owners this week. If he plays, the Packers’ wide receivers increase in value. Jennings has been great this year, but do not start him if Rodgers can not play.

Minnesota Vikings Defense. Minnesota was a very high draft pick in both of my drafts this season. In the past few years, that defense is one of the highest scoring in the NFL. In their home game against Carolina, they scored a huge game winning touchdown. However, if you have another option this week, you have to consider playing another defense. The Saints are going to move the ball and score against anybody. Brees will throw the ball 50+ times if they get behind.

My Picks

@Panthers -9.5 Chiefs - Panthers
Bears -3.5 @Lions - Bears
@Packers -7 Falcons - Packers
Chargers -6.5 @Dolphins - Dolphins
@Giants -7.5 Seahawks - Giants
@Eagles -6 Redskins - Redskins
Titans -3 @Ravens - Ravens
Colts -3.5 @Texans - Texans
@Broncos -3 Buccaneers - Broncos
@Cardinals -1 Bills - Cardinals
Patriots -3.5 @Niners - Niners
@Cowboys -17 Bengals - Bengals
@Jaguars -4.5 Steelers - Steelers
@ Saints -3.5 Vikings - Saints

Fantasy Games. Mediocrity is the word that defines my Fantasy teams so far. My record is 2-2 in both my leagues. I was able to acquire Muhsin Muhammed on the waiver wire and he quickly went into the starting line-up. My biggest decision this week is which QB to start Ben Roethlisberger or David Garrard. I have been going back and forth all week. I am 90% sure I am going with Garrard at home. Big Ben is banged up with a suspect running game; and he is coming off a Monday night game. Garrard had a big game last week and he is always a threat to run for a touchdown.

Odds and Ends. O.J. found guilty. It makes you think about what you were doing 13 long years ago. I was working in a mall and sleeping on the floor of an empty apartment. If you believe that finding his plane means that adventurer Steve Fossett is dead, you do not understand conspiracy theory. I would be surprised if Fossett is not alive and well and living on the beach somewhere. Finally, I watched The Hills this week. The scene in which Doug is hammering Stephanie and she is listening in the bedroom (where you know they hooked up) was the most real thing I have scene on TV in a while. Check out CNN's new anchor Brook Baldwin from Atlanta. You know that scene happens every weekend amongst small groups of friends. Oklahoma and Penn State look very good right now.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Quick Slants - Week 4

Waiver Wire:

The Browns, Raiders, Rams, and Jets have byes this week. Romeo Crennel should be on the hot seat, but the wild Raiders’ press conference and Scott Linehan’s firing by the Rams have kept Crennel out of the national headlines. NFL coaches have to be hoping that this idea of firing the head coach during the bye week does not catch on in what is usually a copy cat league. Owners who took Derek Anderson high in the draft must be feeling great this week, because they can start their back up quarterback without worrying about wasting that high draft pick on Anderson, or about benching Anderson and having him throw for 5 touchdowns.

I cannot believe that I am about to write this, but the best quarterback to pick up this week is Kyle Orton of the Bears. He has had two straight weeks of above average Fantasy points which includes a big week against the vaunted Eagles’ defense. The Bears have a solid running game with Matt Forte. Orton also has a great match up this week against the Detroit Lions. If Forte stays healthy, Orton is a spot starter for Fantasy owners for the rest of the season. The one other guy that still intrigues me is JaMarcus Russell. The Raiders’ situation should be better with a new coach—the situation cannot get any worse unless Al Davis gets caught running a dog fighting ring.

After this Monday’s game, the Ravens’ Le’Ron McClain is the top running back to try and nab off the wire. He is probably not available if you are in a competitive league. He is huge and should get most of the Ravens’ goal line carries. Plus, McGahee runs so hard that he is always an injury concern for Fantasy owners.

No matter how bad your running back situation is, you have to be in a better position than Coach Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Basically, three of the running backs will be out this week against Jacksonville. Mewelde Moore is a solid waiver wire pick up, but only if you need to start him for one or two weeks. He is not someone to pick up and sit on your bench. Moore will have plenty of work this week, but he is not that durable for a long run. The Bills’ Fred Jackson is a capable Fantasy player. He is a great handcuff if you have Marshawn Lynch. I would pick him up to handcuff to Lynch, but I am patiently waiting for Ryan Grant or Ray Rice to do something this year! Some off the wall running backs to pay attention to are Dominic Rhodes, Ladell Betts, and Jason Wright of the Browns. For a long range waiver claim, go with Rhodes.

When I saw the Jets score Sunday, I figured my guy Chansi Stuckey had at least a TD. Stuckey was shutout. Ouch. Don’t give up on Stuckey, because the Jets are going to keep throwing the football. Anquan Boldin is going to be out of action for awhile, but do not expect the Cardinals to change their offense. Take a look at any of the Cardinals wide receivers, but if you can acquire Steve Breaston, make that move. In my Dallas league, three Saints’ receivers are free agents. Any of these guys are worth taking a chance on if you are hurting at wide receiver. I still like Miles Austin from the Cowboys. Another guy that you probably can pick up after the waiver wire is Antwaan Randle El. He is a notoriously slow starter, but against the Cowboys he was getting open for Jason Campbell. Other WRs that are solid pick ups are Bernard Berrian, Arnaz Battle, and any of those Seahawk receivers that are returning from injury.

State of the Union: This whole Wall Street bail out situation is a mess. I really cannot blame Travis Henry for trying to make a few dollars on the side. Can you imagine what that guy has to pay in child support each month? Someone needs to do a breakdown of that on ESPN. While watching CNN on Sunday night, my wife and I tried to come up with a list of people in the United States that Americans could trust to do what is right for the country. Anyone could be on the list, but the main criteria was, can we totally trust this man or woman? The sad part is that eight years ago I would have immediately said Colin Powell. Not anymore. John Stewart? Take a minute and think about it--not that easy to come up with anyone.

Pop Culture: That Al Davis press conference was like a bad beer commercial. Frank Caliendo should do a spoof this Sunday on the Fox pregame show. Anyway, when I saw Stephanie Pratt visiting Audrina when LC was in Italy, I knew something crazy was going to happen on The Hills. I like this guy Doug’s style. Missed the episode this week, but will catch it on the internet. As soon as some extra cash is available, the laptop will be hooked up to the flat screen TV.