Football season is here! The city of Atlanta was invaded this weekend, not by the North, but by Clemson and Alabama fans. I went to my favorite burrito place Saturday afternoon to get a snack. Outside in the parking lot of the shopping center, there were dueling SUV’s—one flying Clemson flags and the other flying Alabama flags. Inside the restaurant, there was a booth of Orange and a booth of Crimson. 8 fired up football fans about 10 miles from downtown eating burritos and talking trash. Seeing these fans has gotten me fired up for the NFL this week.
After eating, I went to the Ikea store in Midtown. Wow, that was an experience. I had no idea the store was that big and popular. The store is a melting pot and a giant tourist attraction. Of course, after navigating some more Alabama fans, I bought some stuff. Buying from Ikea is like drafting for Fantasy Football. Everything looks stylish and fits great together in the store, but once you get the furniture home you can find flaws. You really can mess something up if you do not follow the directions. On Fantasy draft night, your selections look pretty good on paper, but in the days leading up to the season, all kinds of things happen to make you question your roster.
Here are some of the team cuts, suspensions, coaches’ decisions, and injuries that have affected fantasy rosters in the past few days:
Ken Whisenhunt named Kurt Warner the staring quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. Warner was not even drafted in my Dallas League! For this blog, I was checking his status, and I was shocked to discover he already has been nabbed off the waiver wire. I did not know we even had a waiver wire until after week 1. I texted the commissioner, but have not gotten an answer. Clearly, the commish is asleep at the wheel. Knowing him, it is probably girl trouble. An indication of how competitive this league will be this year is that Leinart was not drafted until the 125th pick as a back up for Carson Palmer.
Brandon Marshall’s suspension reduction has increased his value a ton. The 3 game suspension would have been a quarter of the fantasy season. Instead, after winning his appeal, he will miss 1 game, but have to give up $52,000 in salary. Even with the suspension looming, he was drafted 37th in my Dallas League. The question is who will be the starting wide receiver opposite Marshall? Either Darrell Jackson or Eddie Royal should benefit from playing opposite Marshall. Brandon Stokely, the Broncos 3rd wide receiver, plays mostly in the slot, so his production is likely to stay the same.
Probably, the best value pick of my Dallas League draft was J.T. O’Sullivan at number 179. Almost “Mr. Irrelevant”, O’Sullivan is the San Francisco 49ers starter for opening weekend. My guess is he gets a few starts to prove he is the right guy. Plus, O-Coordinator Mike Martz will give him every chance to succeed. He could be this year’s Derek Anderson at the QB spot. Also, I like Arnaz Battle to emerge as a viable back up at wide receiver for Fantasy owners.
Fantasy owners who drafted Rudi Johnson high in the draft are kicking themselves. Johnson was cut yesterday by the Bengals. Although the Texans and others are interested in Johnson, his fantasy value has dropped. If he does catch on with another team, do not even consider playing him for a few weeks. The fight is now on for the top spot in the Bengals’ backfield. Chris Perry has been named the starter, but Kenny Watson is the better back. Watson should be the eventual starter with Perry filling the 3rd down back role. For fantasy owners, Watson is more valuable because he will get the goal line carries.
Every Fantasy owner knows that some running back is going to score lots of fantasy points for the Denver Broncos. Who will start for the Broncos? That picture has been fuzzy this pre-season. Anthony Alridge had over 100 yards in the last pre-season game, but he was injured and is on the reserve / injured list. Fantasy owners with Selvin Young and Andre Hall are happy, because the value has gone up for both of these players. Instead of 3 guys splitting carries, Young and Hall should share the workload.
I am not very high on Plaxico Burress this year, but great news for Fantasy owners—Plaxico has practiced three straight days. The ankle appears to be fine. This guy does not like to practice, but he is a nightmare match-up for NFL cornerbacks. He is huge and a great target near the goal line. However, I think he is going to be one guy affected with a Super Bowl hangover. Although last year, Randy Moss skipped the pre-season and everyone knows how that turned out!
Two years ago, Chad Jackson, the former New England first round draft pick and recent final victim, caused a near riot during one of my drafts. One of our owners wanted to draft Chad Johnson, but drafted Jackson by accident. A flurry of instant messages was the result. After commissioner intervention, the guy ended up with Chad Johnson. By cutting Jackson, Jabar Gaffney’s value went way up as New England’s 3rd receiver. Hopefully, the Pats will play Ben Watson (I have Watson in both of my leagues, talk about commitment) in the slot and throw him the ball more this year, especially near the goal line!
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Fantasy Projections (Part II)
After watching this past weekend's preseason games, here is a look at some fantasy players from the Tennessee Titans, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Pittsburgh Steelers:
The Tennessee Titans are boring to watch. It was hard not to channel surf during their offensive possessions. I had even forgotten that they made the playoffs last year at 10-6. So, they made the playoffs and fired Norm Chow as offensive coordinator. To be the O-Coordinator, the Titans hired Mike Heimerdinger. The question is will Heimerdinger make VY into better passer. Not this year. I like VY’s ability to scramble, make plays, and win games. In the last two years, the Titans have improved in the wins total, but as far as fantasy owners VY is a sell. He is good in real life, but not in fantasy.
I really am impressed with the Titans’ rookie running back Chris Johnson. This guy is fast and explosive. He is not going to explode onto the scene like Adrian Peterson, but he is going to be important to the Titans’ success this year. He is going to get a lot of touches both in the running game and the passing game. I mean Vince Young has to throw and he does not throw downfield very well. That means look for the underneath passing game. Getting Chris Johnson the football in space against a linebacker is going to be a great weapon for Tennessee this year.
In my Atlanta league, I drafted the Tennessee Titans defense as my starting defense. It was a late round pick, but watching the game last Friday night I think it might have been wasted. I have very little confidence in the Titans’ defense being a big factor for my team this year.
Maybe it was the Steelers’ defense. Maybe it was Gus Frerotte at quarterback. Maybe it is just another example of a guy not running that hard in the preseason, but Adrian Peterson did not look like a dominant fantasy player. AP looked kind of slow and lacked burst into the line of scrimmage. If I had Peterson, I would be worried. Fantasy top 3 draft picks have to produce points every week. Peterson looks like he has lost his explosiveness. Consider drafting Chester Taylor in the mid to late rounds as a stop gap in case Peterson gets injured.
The Vikings’ defense is a virtual lock to be a top 5 fantasy defense. I would consider taking them higher in the draft before there is a run on defenses. Whenever the Vikings play in the dome on the turf, the defense should put up lots of fantasy points. The addition of Jared Allen gives them another guy that creates turnovers and possible defensive touchdowns.
For Pittsburgh, Rashad Mendenhall runs like a guy that will score points in fantasy football. He will get opportunities in the Steeler offense, because Bruce Arians is going to run the football. Last year, the Steelers led the NFL in running back carries. Mendenhall is bigger than Willie Parker and should get opportunities near the goal line. The problem for Mendenhall is that he cannot fumble. Fumbling is the quickest way to get a seat on the bench. I think the Steelers should keep an eye on the Atlanta Falcons. If the Falcons cut running back Jason Snelling, he would be a great pick up at running back for the Steelers’ offensive system.
One position that always gives me trouble in fantasy drafts is the TE position. These players are becoming more impact players in Fantasy Football, but overall you can put most of these guys in a hat and just pick out a name. You do not want to waste an early pick on a tight end, but you do not want to get caught at the end of the draft with very limited options. The three starters for these teams show the diversity at the tight end position.
Heath Miller at tight end is another Steeler that is a solid fantasy pick. Miller and Roethlisberger have had a great connection from the very beginning of Miller’s career. As Hines Ward gets older this year and teams focus on Santonio Holmes in the red zone, look for Miller to be a bigger factor in the Steelers’ passing game. A player that is really flying under the radar for the Vikings is TE Visanthe Shiancoe. This guy went undrafted in one of my fantasy drafts. He looks and runs like a wide receiver. If the Vikings had a top quarterback, Shiancoe would have a chance to score 10 touchdowns. I mean, can you even name a Vikings’ wide receiver? He is a great TE option in the later rounds as a back up / possible starter. The Titans’ tight end is Alge Crumpler. Crumpler escaped a terrible situation last year in Atlanta. Recently, he has been slowed by injuries, but he looks to be in great shape. He will catch the ball in traffic and give VY a guy he can count on under pressure. If he is available, take Crumpler in round 16 and play him in match ups when the Titans play weak defensive teams.
The Tennessee Titans are boring to watch. It was hard not to channel surf during their offensive possessions. I had even forgotten that they made the playoffs last year at 10-6. So, they made the playoffs and fired Norm Chow as offensive coordinator. To be the O-Coordinator, the Titans hired Mike Heimerdinger. The question is will Heimerdinger make VY into better passer. Not this year. I like VY’s ability to scramble, make plays, and win games. In the last two years, the Titans have improved in the wins total, but as far as fantasy owners VY is a sell. He is good in real life, but not in fantasy.
I really am impressed with the Titans’ rookie running back Chris Johnson. This guy is fast and explosive. He is not going to explode onto the scene like Adrian Peterson, but he is going to be important to the Titans’ success this year. He is going to get a lot of touches both in the running game and the passing game. I mean Vince Young has to throw and he does not throw downfield very well. That means look for the underneath passing game. Getting Chris Johnson the football in space against a linebacker is going to be a great weapon for Tennessee this year.
In my Atlanta league, I drafted the Tennessee Titans defense as my starting defense. It was a late round pick, but watching the game last Friday night I think it might have been wasted. I have very little confidence in the Titans’ defense being a big factor for my team this year.
Maybe it was the Steelers’ defense. Maybe it was Gus Frerotte at quarterback. Maybe it is just another example of a guy not running that hard in the preseason, but Adrian Peterson did not look like a dominant fantasy player. AP looked kind of slow and lacked burst into the line of scrimmage. If I had Peterson, I would be worried. Fantasy top 3 draft picks have to produce points every week. Peterson looks like he has lost his explosiveness. Consider drafting Chester Taylor in the mid to late rounds as a stop gap in case Peterson gets injured.
The Vikings’ defense is a virtual lock to be a top 5 fantasy defense. I would consider taking them higher in the draft before there is a run on defenses. Whenever the Vikings play in the dome on the turf, the defense should put up lots of fantasy points. The addition of Jared Allen gives them another guy that creates turnovers and possible defensive touchdowns.
For Pittsburgh, Rashad Mendenhall runs like a guy that will score points in fantasy football. He will get opportunities in the Steeler offense, because Bruce Arians is going to run the football. Last year, the Steelers led the NFL in running back carries. Mendenhall is bigger than Willie Parker and should get opportunities near the goal line. The problem for Mendenhall is that he cannot fumble. Fumbling is the quickest way to get a seat on the bench. I think the Steelers should keep an eye on the Atlanta Falcons. If the Falcons cut running back Jason Snelling, he would be a great pick up at running back for the Steelers’ offensive system.
One position that always gives me trouble in fantasy drafts is the TE position. These players are becoming more impact players in Fantasy Football, but overall you can put most of these guys in a hat and just pick out a name. You do not want to waste an early pick on a tight end, but you do not want to get caught at the end of the draft with very limited options. The three starters for these teams show the diversity at the tight end position.
Heath Miller at tight end is another Steeler that is a solid fantasy pick. Miller and Roethlisberger have had a great connection from the very beginning of Miller’s career. As Hines Ward gets older this year and teams focus on Santonio Holmes in the red zone, look for Miller to be a bigger factor in the Steelers’ passing game. A player that is really flying under the radar for the Vikings is TE Visanthe Shiancoe. This guy went undrafted in one of my fantasy drafts. He looks and runs like a wide receiver. If the Vikings had a top quarterback, Shiancoe would have a chance to score 10 touchdowns. I mean, can you even name a Vikings’ wide receiver? He is a great TE option in the later rounds as a back up / possible starter. The Titans’ tight end is Alge Crumpler. Crumpler escaped a terrible situation last year in Atlanta. Recently, he has been slowed by injuries, but he looks to be in great shape. He will catch the ball in traffic and give VY a guy he can count on under pressure. If he is available, take Crumpler in round 16 and play him in match ups when the Titans play weak defensive teams.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Fantasy Projections (Part I)
This weekend with luck and perseverance I watched parts of 3 pre-season NFL games. The Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons (crazy, but this game was blacked out in Atlanta and I was able to watch the replay. The broadcast hardly showed the crowd, but when they did the number of empty seats in the newly refurbished Georgia Dome was depressing. I blame Vince Young for being a much more boring version of Michael Vick), and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Minnesota Vikings, were all on CBS (man, I have to get this cable hooked up soon). Watching these games should not drastically change your player projections, but the information gained can be the difference in having a great, mediocre, or bad draft. Here are some players from these games to keep an eye on this week during your fantasy draft:
The Houston Texans’ running backs have above average fantasy value. Have never liked Chris Brown and he is hurt already, but the young guns are worth a look. I chuckled at a WVU guy in my Atlanta league who took Steve Slaton, but that was before I saw that Alex Gibbs is the new offensive line coach. Against the Cowboys, Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor ran hard and picked up yards. The Texans' offense is going to move the football and they are committed to the running game. Expect a 1,000 yard rushing season out of one of these two backs. Think Broncos redux. You just have to pick the right guy. Take Brown or Slaton and save Taylor for the waiver wire.
If I were an NFL coach in the real world, Matt Schaub would be high on my list of QBs to lead a team. In the fantasy world, Schaub is a borderline starter. He could put up big numbers, or he could be replaced by Sage Rosenfels in week 4.
Kevin Walter, a wide receiver for the Texans, is a sleeper, late round wide receiver. On Friday night, he scored a touchdown on a crossing pattern by making a tough catch and run. Opposite of Andre Johnson, Walter should be open a ton. Plus, Schaub looks for him when they need clutch 3rd down catches and yards. He is kind of like a poor man’s Wes Welker. Owen Daniels at tight end looks to be a solid choice for fantasy owners. In a 16 round draft, he should go around #100. He works the middle of the field and is a big target for Schaub near the goal line. Do not take under any circumstances take Jacoby Jones!
Every skill player on the Cowboys’ offense is fantasy gold. They are so deep. O-Coordinator Jason Garrett wants to lead the NFL in offense in 2008. The main guys--Romo, Owens, Barber, Witten--barring injury are very high fantasy picks. Patrick Crayton and Felix Jones, the running back from Arkansas, will have solid years and are good mid-to-late rounders. I would even consider taking Brad Johnson or TE Martellus Bennett off the waiver wire if something happens to Witten or Romo (he could get benched after Jessica Simpson and her dad mess with his head).
Living in Atlanta, I am worried about having to watch this team every week. However, against Tennessee on Friday, some players definitely stood out. I already am sold on Michael Turner. Jerious Norwood looks like a much improved player. His speed never has been a question, but he ran surprisingly hard in this game. More impressive was the fact that he got hammered on a tackle in the 1st half, and probably could have called it a night, but in the 2nd half he played well and broke big runs into the secondary. Also, Norwood will play a big role in catching the ball out of the backfield. Mike Mularkey, the new Atlanta OC, is not going to let Matt Ryan take deep drops and hold the football. Screens and short passes will be plentiful. Norwood can catch and Michael Turner cannot. Expect an increase in Norwood’s total touches and yards this year.
Mularkey has not gotten a lot of publicity yet, but I followed him closely when he coached with the Steelers (I am a Steelers fan). He creates great misdirection and specialty plays. For example, the play the Falcons scored on with about 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter was vintage Mularkey. The Falcons were on the 2 yard line and lined up in the shotgun with the rookie QB Matt Ryan. Ryan made a great play-action fake and found a wide open receiver, Harry Douglas, for a touchdown. Mularkey will be conservative, but he has wrinkles in his offensive play package that should help Atlanta score easier in the red zone this season. With Mularkey calling the plays, Falcons' QB "Matty Ice" is a possible bye week pick up or a late, late rounder if you have Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, or another durable starter.
Avoid at all costs the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. The Dallas Cowboys’ defense will be solid, but not spectacular or even above average. The Houston Texans’ defense is a top 10 fantasy defense. The defensive line alone should rack up sacks and force fumbles. One red flag for them is that they play in a tough division that is notorious for high scoring games.
*Part two of this post focuses on the Titans, Vikings, and Steelers.
The Houston Texans’ running backs have above average fantasy value. Have never liked Chris Brown and he is hurt already, but the young guns are worth a look. I chuckled at a WVU guy in my Atlanta league who took Steve Slaton, but that was before I saw that Alex Gibbs is the new offensive line coach. Against the Cowboys, Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor ran hard and picked up yards. The Texans' offense is going to move the football and they are committed to the running game. Expect a 1,000 yard rushing season out of one of these two backs. Think Broncos redux. You just have to pick the right guy. Take Brown or Slaton and save Taylor for the waiver wire.
If I were an NFL coach in the real world, Matt Schaub would be high on my list of QBs to lead a team. In the fantasy world, Schaub is a borderline starter. He could put up big numbers, or he could be replaced by Sage Rosenfels in week 4.
Kevin Walter, a wide receiver for the Texans, is a sleeper, late round wide receiver. On Friday night, he scored a touchdown on a crossing pattern by making a tough catch and run. Opposite of Andre Johnson, Walter should be open a ton. Plus, Schaub looks for him when they need clutch 3rd down catches and yards. He is kind of like a poor man’s Wes Welker. Owen Daniels at tight end looks to be a solid choice for fantasy owners. In a 16 round draft, he should go around #100. He works the middle of the field and is a big target for Schaub near the goal line. Do not take under any circumstances take Jacoby Jones!
Every skill player on the Cowboys’ offense is fantasy gold. They are so deep. O-Coordinator Jason Garrett wants to lead the NFL in offense in 2008. The main guys--Romo, Owens, Barber, Witten--barring injury are very high fantasy picks. Patrick Crayton and Felix Jones, the running back from Arkansas, will have solid years and are good mid-to-late rounders. I would even consider taking Brad Johnson or TE Martellus Bennett off the waiver wire if something happens to Witten or Romo (he could get benched after Jessica Simpson and her dad mess with his head).
Living in Atlanta, I am worried about having to watch this team every week. However, against Tennessee on Friday, some players definitely stood out. I already am sold on Michael Turner. Jerious Norwood looks like a much improved player. His speed never has been a question, but he ran surprisingly hard in this game. More impressive was the fact that he got hammered on a tackle in the 1st half, and probably could have called it a night, but in the 2nd half he played well and broke big runs into the secondary. Also, Norwood will play a big role in catching the ball out of the backfield. Mike Mularkey, the new Atlanta OC, is not going to let Matt Ryan take deep drops and hold the football. Screens and short passes will be plentiful. Norwood can catch and Michael Turner cannot. Expect an increase in Norwood’s total touches and yards this year.
Mularkey has not gotten a lot of publicity yet, but I followed him closely when he coached with the Steelers (I am a Steelers fan). He creates great misdirection and specialty plays. For example, the play the Falcons scored on with about 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter was vintage Mularkey. The Falcons were on the 2 yard line and lined up in the shotgun with the rookie QB Matt Ryan. Ryan made a great play-action fake and found a wide open receiver, Harry Douglas, for a touchdown. Mularkey will be conservative, but he has wrinkles in his offensive play package that should help Atlanta score easier in the red zone this season. With Mularkey calling the plays, Falcons' QB "Matty Ice" is a possible bye week pick up or a late, late rounder if you have Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, or another durable starter.
Avoid at all costs the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. The Dallas Cowboys’ defense will be solid, but not spectacular or even above average. The Houston Texans’ defense is a top 10 fantasy defense. The defensive line alone should rack up sacks and force fumbles. One red flag for them is that they play in a tough division that is notorious for high scoring games.
*Part two of this post focuses on the Titans, Vikings, and Steelers.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Fantasy Draft Diary - Dallas Edition
6:53 Fired up for the draft, but my wife is hungry. Going to cook in the hopes that she will go get me some beer. Made two giant egg and sausage sandwiches. The secret is to use a little Frank’s Red Hot to top off the sandwich. Also, cook the egg like an omelet with cheese, tomatoes, and onions.
7:39 Firing up the laptop. My wife sighs at my excitement, “oh my gosh, what is wrong with you”. Getting my draft materials together—a pen, a highlighter, 2007 statistics, my draft pick numbers, and my draft cheat sheet.
7:58 Turned the television to the Olympics. No cable right now and its killing me. Olympics have been great, but my favorite show is The Hills and I am missing LC, Audrina, and Whitney. Oh yeah, logged on to the draft site for my Dallas league. Oh no, Lawrence Tynes is having exploratory knee surgery! Immediately, guys start instant messaging and talking about their college girls and facebook friends. People, we are in our 30’s.
8:01 Costas just said something in Chinese. Ugh. The overhead shots of Beijing are unbelievable. Huge city. Hate that I already know what happens in the track events.
8:06 Misty May-Treanor just said that the Marlins’ pitchers in the bullpen were checking their cell phones during games to give her husband updates. Sad. No wonder the Marlins are dropping in the standings.
8:16 The draft is off without a hitch. Of course, the token Boston sports guy takes Tom Brady with the 3rd pick. He is a transplant that wears a Red Sox hat and strokes Sean McDonough and Jimmy Fallon.
8:22 Took Ryan Grant with the 9th pick--not sure about that one
8:27 Took Marshawn Lynch with the 16th pick. Wanted Peyton Manning, but a Dallas guy selected him just ahead of me.
8:30 Draft is slowing a bit--watching a McCain commercial that starts out with the words, “Washington is broken.” Haven’t the Republicans and McCain been running Washington for the last 6-8 years?
8:43 Why is Collinsworth here? Why is he such a dork? Wish I had his job! Costas just said that they should play beach volleyball in sweats, is he crazy? Would like to see Phil Dalhausser run a pass pattern and try to catch a ball on the move.
8:50 One of these guys just took Greg Jennings with the 34th pick. Wow, yeah I forgot with the 33rd pick I took Reggie Bush. Kim Kardashian could provide some excitement in the owner’s suite. Have a decision to make with pick #40. Go quarterback or wide receiver?
8:54 Tyson gay just dropped the baton, what? Doc Patton had to slow down--blame the rain. Tyson, you have to start running earlier. Tough Olympics for Mr. Gay.
8:59 Coke commercial rips off Johnny Cash. Just took Roethlisberger in Round 4. I am a Steelers fan, but really wanted Santonio Holmes. He was just taken in front of me. A theme might be developing. It was Big Ben or Wes Welker. Tough decision. Last year could have been a fluke for both.
9:12 Need a wide receiver, but the Dallas league always drafts WRs early. Lots of retreads left like Derrick Mason, Hines Ward, Marvin Harrison, and Chris Chambers. Decide to take Coles or Cotchery. Cotchery is the choice. Maybe he is a deep threat and we never knew it! USA just dropped the baton in women’s 400 meter relay.
9:15 Justin Fargas just got drafted at #60 about 63 spots earlier than in my Atlanta league. Weird, wild, interesting.
9:19 Uh-oh panic time--watching the Olympics and blogging and clicked back. Had 45 seconds to make my pick. Wanted Shockey and figured he would be there, but the guy right in front of me picked him. Took Anthony Gonzalez with 64th pick. I had Marvin Harrison last year and his career is pretty much over, so Gonzalez should get more balls thrown his way.
9:26 Why is the USA logo handwritten on these track uniforms? How in the world is BMX a sport in the Olympics?
9:40 My wife wants me to take Santana Moss here. Never liked his game, but make the pick anyway. I am distracted by everyone taking defenses so early.
9:57 Took David Garrard as my back up quarterback. My wife is making milkshakes and she cannot get the blender to work. We just moved, so it might be damaged. We have never used it before. What is going on? I go over and get it to work. That might not have been the best idea, but I want a milkshake.
10:08 I just heard that I missed “a dive for the ages”. NBC already cut away and I do not know what happened or who made the dive.
10:25 Wish that I did not know what happened in this Men’s 400 meter final. This would have been a great, jump up and down race to watch, but at 9 am this morning someone at work told me Wariner lost. Congrats Lashawn Merritt.
10:47 This might be my worst fantasy draft ever. Took a flyer on Drew Bennett. What is this 5 years ago? Painful. This is a bad fantasy team. The good thing about wide receivers is that there will be surprises and I can get someone off the waiver wire.
10:54 Someone just took Alex Smith with pick # 169--is that a misprint?
11:06 Draft is over. Alas, milkshakes instead of beers. My last two picks were Kevin Boss and the Oakland Raiders defense. Am I even trying at this point? Very fast draft which is great. Some fun instant messages. USA men’s beach volleyball is in real trouble. This is great with no commercial interruptions. Is Dalhausser nervous? Good luck to everyone with their fantasy teams. Dallas league should be ultra competitive again this year!
7:39 Firing up the laptop. My wife sighs at my excitement, “oh my gosh, what is wrong with you”. Getting my draft materials together—a pen, a highlighter, 2007 statistics, my draft pick numbers, and my draft cheat sheet.
7:58 Turned the television to the Olympics. No cable right now and its killing me. Olympics have been great, but my favorite show is The Hills and I am missing LC, Audrina, and Whitney. Oh yeah, logged on to the draft site for my Dallas league. Oh no, Lawrence Tynes is having exploratory knee surgery! Immediately, guys start instant messaging and talking about their college girls and facebook friends. People, we are in our 30’s.
8:01 Costas just said something in Chinese. Ugh. The overhead shots of Beijing are unbelievable. Huge city. Hate that I already know what happens in the track events.
8:06 Misty May-Treanor just said that the Marlins’ pitchers in the bullpen were checking their cell phones during games to give her husband updates. Sad. No wonder the Marlins are dropping in the standings.
8:16 The draft is off without a hitch. Of course, the token Boston sports guy takes Tom Brady with the 3rd pick. He is a transplant that wears a Red Sox hat and strokes Sean McDonough and Jimmy Fallon.
8:22 Took Ryan Grant with the 9th pick--not sure about that one
8:27 Took Marshawn Lynch with the 16th pick. Wanted Peyton Manning, but a Dallas guy selected him just ahead of me.
8:30 Draft is slowing a bit--watching a McCain commercial that starts out with the words, “Washington is broken.” Haven’t the Republicans and McCain been running Washington for the last 6-8 years?
8:43 Why is Collinsworth here? Why is he such a dork? Wish I had his job! Costas just said that they should play beach volleyball in sweats, is he crazy? Would like to see Phil Dalhausser run a pass pattern and try to catch a ball on the move.
8:50 One of these guys just took Greg Jennings with the 34th pick. Wow, yeah I forgot with the 33rd pick I took Reggie Bush. Kim Kardashian could provide some excitement in the owner’s suite. Have a decision to make with pick #40. Go quarterback or wide receiver?
8:54 Tyson gay just dropped the baton, what? Doc Patton had to slow down--blame the rain. Tyson, you have to start running earlier. Tough Olympics for Mr. Gay.
8:59 Coke commercial rips off Johnny Cash. Just took Roethlisberger in Round 4. I am a Steelers fan, but really wanted Santonio Holmes. He was just taken in front of me. A theme might be developing. It was Big Ben or Wes Welker. Tough decision. Last year could have been a fluke for both.
9:12 Need a wide receiver, but the Dallas league always drafts WRs early. Lots of retreads left like Derrick Mason, Hines Ward, Marvin Harrison, and Chris Chambers. Decide to take Coles or Cotchery. Cotchery is the choice. Maybe he is a deep threat and we never knew it! USA just dropped the baton in women’s 400 meter relay.
9:15 Justin Fargas just got drafted at #60 about 63 spots earlier than in my Atlanta league. Weird, wild, interesting.
9:19 Uh-oh panic time--watching the Olympics and blogging and clicked back. Had 45 seconds to make my pick. Wanted Shockey and figured he would be there, but the guy right in front of me picked him. Took Anthony Gonzalez with 64th pick. I had Marvin Harrison last year and his career is pretty much over, so Gonzalez should get more balls thrown his way.
9:26 Why is the USA logo handwritten on these track uniforms? How in the world is BMX a sport in the Olympics?
9:40 My wife wants me to take Santana Moss here. Never liked his game, but make the pick anyway. I am distracted by everyone taking defenses so early.
9:57 Took David Garrard as my back up quarterback. My wife is making milkshakes and she cannot get the blender to work. We just moved, so it might be damaged. We have never used it before. What is going on? I go over and get it to work. That might not have been the best idea, but I want a milkshake.
10:08 I just heard that I missed “a dive for the ages”. NBC already cut away and I do not know what happened or who made the dive.
10:25 Wish that I did not know what happened in this Men’s 400 meter final. This would have been a great, jump up and down race to watch, but at 9 am this morning someone at work told me Wariner lost. Congrats Lashawn Merritt.
10:47 This might be my worst fantasy draft ever. Took a flyer on Drew Bennett. What is this 5 years ago? Painful. This is a bad fantasy team. The good thing about wide receivers is that there will be surprises and I can get someone off the waiver wire.
10:54 Someone just took Alex Smith with pick # 169--is that a misprint?
11:06 Draft is over. Alas, milkshakes instead of beers. My last two picks were Kevin Boss and the Oakland Raiders defense. Am I even trying at this point? Very fast draft which is great. Some fun instant messages. USA men’s beach volleyball is in real trouble. This is great with no commercial interruptions. Is Dalhausser nervous? Good luck to everyone with their fantasy teams. Dallas league should be ultra competitive again this year!
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Under the Radar Guys for Fantasy 2008
In my last post, I gave you 5 players to avoid in your NFL fantasy draft this summer. When I did my players to avoid, I looked at their statistics from last year and researched the most recent news on those players. Before my draft, I also come up with a longer list of 20-30 players that I like that might be flying under the radar for other fantasy owners. Normally, these players are drafted in later rounds, but end up as starters as the season moves into October and November. I mark these guys off as they are drafted and look for them if they fall through the cracks. The list is longer and more based on a gut feeling, a hunch, a loyalty based on past fantasy glory, or maybe a brief snippet of friendly conversation. Here are players that I like for 2008 and my quickie reasons for keeping an eye on them:
David Garrard is a quarterback that is not normally mentioned in the top two tiers of fantasy quarterbacks. The Jacksonville Jaguars are poised to have another great year. Garrard rarely makes turnovers to give him negative fantasy points. Last year, he was the starter, but I think the Jags protected him a little, but this year expect more passing attempts and more opportunities in the red zone. Garrard went 87th in my Atlanta league.
Donovan McNabb. I really, really wanted to draft McNabb in my Atlanta league. I had two scenarios for my quarterback situation. Fortunately, one of the guys in the league took Peyton Manning in the 1st round and I was able to draft Tony Romo as my quarterback with the 13th pick. If Romo were gone, I was taking a running back and waiting for McNabb. If he is healthy, he is going to have a monster season. I see him staying healthy for at least the first 10 games of the season before wearing down. McNabb went 45th in ATL draft.
Matt Forte is the starting running back for the Chicago Bears. I know I have never heard of him either. The Bears just announced that Kyle Orton is their starter. That will last about 2 weeks. Forte is young and he will get plenty of carries. To me, after Devin Hester, Forte is the Bears’ second scoring option in the red zone. Inside the 5 yard line, he is the only option. Forte went 70th in my draft which seemed pretty low. I passed on him to take Selvin Young from the Denver Broncos.
Fred Taylor, Jacksonville. I never have liked Fred Taylor, but this year is different. Taylor is going to have a solid fantasy year. He definitely is a solid option as a 2nd or 3rd fantasy back. Splitting carries with Maurice Jones-Drew has helped Taylor stay healthy. In the games I saw last year, he ran hard. He will hit the hole in the middle and gain yards. Jones-Drew breaks long runs for touchdowns, but Taylor is tougher near the goal line. He also is a capable receiver that will get receptions from screens and swings in the Jaguars’ conservative passing game. Taylor went 68th in ATL draft.
Chester Taylor is Adrian Peterson’s back up in Minnesota. Taylor has value in the fact that Peterson has a history of injury. I think Minnesota coach Brad Childress will use Taylor to share carries with Peterson. Childress also will get Taylor the ball in the passing game. Last year, Taylor was hurt, but he is very talented and elusive in the open field. On another team, he would be the starter. He has value as a later round pick or a higher pick as a cutout if you drafted Peterson in the 1st round. Chester went 81st.
Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina Panthers. Four years ago, Muhammad had a monster year in Carolina. Then, he signed for large dollars with the Chicago Bears. Of course, I picked him in Fantasy that year, and Muhammad was horrible. I do not blame him—I blame the horrible Bears’ offense. Now, after really wasting 3 seasons, he is back with Carolina and reunited with Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith. If Delhomme’s arm is strong enough, Moose should have a great year. He scored on a tough catch in the preseason action I saw. He is a big target in the end zone and uses his body to ward off defenders. Look for him to emerge as Delhomme’s go to guy in the middle of the field near the goal line. Surprisingly, Muhammad was not drafted in Atlanta league.
Ted Ginn, Miami Dolphins. I have to admit I am an Ohio State fan going back to the days of Doug Donley and Jim Karsatos. This year Ted Ginn drops the Junior and becomes a solid NFL player. Someone on the Dolphins has to score touchdowns, don’t they? Ginn will benefit from the toughness of the new coaching staff, from the improvement in the running game, and from the addition of quarterback Chad Pennington. Ginn was drafted 134th in my Atlanta league.
Other guys I like: Jerricho Cotchery, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Bobby Meachem (WR, New Orleans Saints), Rashard Mendenhall, Robbie Gould (Bears will score many, many field goals), the Jacksonville Defense (new coordinator Gregg Williams’ schemes will create turnovers), Santonio Holmes, Selvin Young, Tony Scheffler, Robert Royal (TE from Buffalo), and Chris Henry (WR for the Bengals—this guy scores touchdowns, but not a very nice guy!)
David Garrard is a quarterback that is not normally mentioned in the top two tiers of fantasy quarterbacks. The Jacksonville Jaguars are poised to have another great year. Garrard rarely makes turnovers to give him negative fantasy points. Last year, he was the starter, but I think the Jags protected him a little, but this year expect more passing attempts and more opportunities in the red zone. Garrard went 87th in my Atlanta league.
Donovan McNabb. I really, really wanted to draft McNabb in my Atlanta league. I had two scenarios for my quarterback situation. Fortunately, one of the guys in the league took Peyton Manning in the 1st round and I was able to draft Tony Romo as my quarterback with the 13th pick. If Romo were gone, I was taking a running back and waiting for McNabb. If he is healthy, he is going to have a monster season. I see him staying healthy for at least the first 10 games of the season before wearing down. McNabb went 45th in ATL draft.
Matt Forte is the starting running back for the Chicago Bears. I know I have never heard of him either. The Bears just announced that Kyle Orton is their starter. That will last about 2 weeks. Forte is young and he will get plenty of carries. To me, after Devin Hester, Forte is the Bears’ second scoring option in the red zone. Inside the 5 yard line, he is the only option. Forte went 70th in my draft which seemed pretty low. I passed on him to take Selvin Young from the Denver Broncos.
Fred Taylor, Jacksonville. I never have liked Fred Taylor, but this year is different. Taylor is going to have a solid fantasy year. He definitely is a solid option as a 2nd or 3rd fantasy back. Splitting carries with Maurice Jones-Drew has helped Taylor stay healthy. In the games I saw last year, he ran hard. He will hit the hole in the middle and gain yards. Jones-Drew breaks long runs for touchdowns, but Taylor is tougher near the goal line. He also is a capable receiver that will get receptions from screens and swings in the Jaguars’ conservative passing game. Taylor went 68th in ATL draft.
Chester Taylor is Adrian Peterson’s back up in Minnesota. Taylor has value in the fact that Peterson has a history of injury. I think Minnesota coach Brad Childress will use Taylor to share carries with Peterson. Childress also will get Taylor the ball in the passing game. Last year, Taylor was hurt, but he is very talented and elusive in the open field. On another team, he would be the starter. He has value as a later round pick or a higher pick as a cutout if you drafted Peterson in the 1st round. Chester went 81st.
Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina Panthers. Four years ago, Muhammad had a monster year in Carolina. Then, he signed for large dollars with the Chicago Bears. Of course, I picked him in Fantasy that year, and Muhammad was horrible. I do not blame him—I blame the horrible Bears’ offense. Now, after really wasting 3 seasons, he is back with Carolina and reunited with Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith. If Delhomme’s arm is strong enough, Moose should have a great year. He scored on a tough catch in the preseason action I saw. He is a big target in the end zone and uses his body to ward off defenders. Look for him to emerge as Delhomme’s go to guy in the middle of the field near the goal line. Surprisingly, Muhammad was not drafted in Atlanta league.
Ted Ginn, Miami Dolphins. I have to admit I am an Ohio State fan going back to the days of Doug Donley and Jim Karsatos. This year Ted Ginn drops the Junior and becomes a solid NFL player. Someone on the Dolphins has to score touchdowns, don’t they? Ginn will benefit from the toughness of the new coaching staff, from the improvement in the running game, and from the addition of quarterback Chad Pennington. Ginn was drafted 134th in my Atlanta league.
Other guys I like: Jerricho Cotchery, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Bobby Meachem (WR, New Orleans Saints), Rashard Mendenhall, Robbie Gould (Bears will score many, many field goals), the Jacksonville Defense (new coordinator Gregg Williams’ schemes will create turnovers), Santonio Holmes, Selvin Young, Tony Scheffler, Robert Royal (TE from Buffalo), and Chris Henry (WR for the Bengals—this guy scores touchdowns, but not a very nice guy!)
Monday, August 18, 2008
Fantasy Owners--Avoid These 5 in 2008
I am in two Fantasy Football Leagues for the 2008 National Football League season. One league is based in Dallas, Texas and the other league is based in Atlanta, Georgia. I am a Dallas league veteran, while this is my first year in the Atlanta league. Usually, I do my draft in the comfort of my own home with a couple of cold beverages, but this year I participated in a war room type draft in Atlanta. A friend’s new home (yes, some people are still buying) was transformed by 8 guys with 6 laptops into draft central. A giant flat screen television played the Olympics and we got down to business. In the next few weeks, I will blog about my two drafts, my player analysis, and my strategies for this season in Fantasy Football.
Here are 5 veteran players with proven Fantasy success that you should avoid this year (I have included each player’s draft position from my Atlanta league draft):
Carson Palmer. According to the Average Draft Position, or ADP, from Fantasy Football Today or www.fftoday.com, Palmer is being taken as the 52nd pick. When I checked the site for this blog, the ADP was based on a composite of over 1,000 drafts in 12 team leagues. Palmer played very well last year and played in all 16 games. I think he is an injury risk this season. The Bengals’ running game is not that strong and the offensive line is a question mark due to injuries. Palmer’s receivers are exceptional, but look for teams to key on and try to stop T.J. Houshmanzedeh more this season. Look for the Bengals to be under .500 this year, and for Palmer to struggle. In 2007, Palmer ended the season as the 9th best quarterback and scored 19.5 fantasy points per game. In my Atlanta draft, Palmer was taken with the 41st pick.
Jay Cutler. Cutler’s ADP is the 101st pick. In 2007, I was amazed to see that Cutler finished the NFL season as the 12th best quarterback by scoring 17.6 pts per game. I had him last year and dropped him. He was very inconsistent. It turns out he had diabetes that was undiagnosed. He should be more consistent, but I do not like the skill players in Denver. Who is going to be the running back? Cutler is not a guy that can carry a team. He needs the running game to set up the play action passing game. Without a go-to running back, look for him to struggle in 2008. In my Atlanta draft, Cutler was taken with the 77th pick, so that is clearly a reach pick.
Justin Fargas. Last season, Fargas finished the season strongly as the 23rd best running back (one spot ahead of usual Fantasy high draft pick Reggie Bush-Kardashian) with 10.3 points per game. His ADP is the 104th pick. He comes into the season as the Oakland starter, but Darren McFadden and Michael Bush should each see plenty of carries. I agree with most fantasy owners in thinking that Fargas is going to get lost in the shuffle, and that McFadden will burst onto the NFL scene. In my Atlanta draft, Fargas was nearly forgotten and ended up as the 123rd pick.
Steve Smith (CAR). Smith’s training camp fight and suspension does not seem to be hurting him in most drafts. According to www.fftoday.com, his average draft position is the 38th pick. He is suspended for two games that will count in all fantasy leagues, so owners lose those points. He also has competition for catches in the red zone in the form of the reacquired Muhsin Muhammed. Smith’s reputation in Fantasy is still solid if you look at his high ADP this year. I think it is loyal owners that draft Smith every year no matter the circumstances. (There is guy like that in my Dallas league.) In 2007, he ended the season as the17th best wide receiver with 9.5 points per game. That ranking should drop this year. In my Atlanta draft, Smith was passed over several times and finally taken with the 50th pick.
Chad Johnson. I like Chad Johnson as a player and NFL personality, but he has not been the same player since the Bengals’ playoff loss to the Steelers in 2006. Whispers of a locker room fight with his head coach Marvin Lewis at halftime of that game have lingered and messed with his fragile psyche. There has been much sound and fury from Johnson this off season, but that might be nothing in 2008. His ankle still is not 100 percent, and now his shoulder is injured. I think he knows he is the 2nd best receiver on his team, and he wants to force his way out of Cincinnati. Still, he is a favorite of Fantasy owners and has been going near Steve Smith with the 39th pick of most drafts. Ocho Cinquo was the 6th best wide receiver in 2007 with 12 points per game. In my Atlanta draft, which was receiver and quarterback heavy in the early rounds, Ocho was taken with the 28th pick.
Here are 5 veteran players with proven Fantasy success that you should avoid this year (I have included each player’s draft position from my Atlanta league draft):
Carson Palmer. According to the Average Draft Position, or ADP, from Fantasy Football Today or www.fftoday.com, Palmer is being taken as the 52nd pick. When I checked the site for this blog, the ADP was based on a composite of over 1,000 drafts in 12 team leagues. Palmer played very well last year and played in all 16 games. I think he is an injury risk this season. The Bengals’ running game is not that strong and the offensive line is a question mark due to injuries. Palmer’s receivers are exceptional, but look for teams to key on and try to stop T.J. Houshmanzedeh more this season. Look for the Bengals to be under .500 this year, and for Palmer to struggle. In 2007, Palmer ended the season as the 9th best quarterback and scored 19.5 fantasy points per game. In my Atlanta draft, Palmer was taken with the 41st pick.
Jay Cutler. Cutler’s ADP is the 101st pick. In 2007, I was amazed to see that Cutler finished the NFL season as the 12th best quarterback by scoring 17.6 pts per game. I had him last year and dropped him. He was very inconsistent. It turns out he had diabetes that was undiagnosed. He should be more consistent, but I do not like the skill players in Denver. Who is going to be the running back? Cutler is not a guy that can carry a team. He needs the running game to set up the play action passing game. Without a go-to running back, look for him to struggle in 2008. In my Atlanta draft, Cutler was taken with the 77th pick, so that is clearly a reach pick.
Justin Fargas. Last season, Fargas finished the season strongly as the 23rd best running back (one spot ahead of usual Fantasy high draft pick Reggie Bush-Kardashian) with 10.3 points per game. His ADP is the 104th pick. He comes into the season as the Oakland starter, but Darren McFadden and Michael Bush should each see plenty of carries. I agree with most fantasy owners in thinking that Fargas is going to get lost in the shuffle, and that McFadden will burst onto the NFL scene. In my Atlanta draft, Fargas was nearly forgotten and ended up as the 123rd pick.
Steve Smith (CAR). Smith’s training camp fight and suspension does not seem to be hurting him in most drafts. According to www.fftoday.com, his average draft position is the 38th pick. He is suspended for two games that will count in all fantasy leagues, so owners lose those points. He also has competition for catches in the red zone in the form of the reacquired Muhsin Muhammed. Smith’s reputation in Fantasy is still solid if you look at his high ADP this year. I think it is loyal owners that draft Smith every year no matter the circumstances. (There is guy like that in my Dallas league.) In 2007, he ended the season as the17th best wide receiver with 9.5 points per game. That ranking should drop this year. In my Atlanta draft, Smith was passed over several times and finally taken with the 50th pick.
Chad Johnson. I like Chad Johnson as a player and NFL personality, but he has not been the same player since the Bengals’ playoff loss to the Steelers in 2006. Whispers of a locker room fight with his head coach Marvin Lewis at halftime of that game have lingered and messed with his fragile psyche. There has been much sound and fury from Johnson this off season, but that might be nothing in 2008. His ankle still is not 100 percent, and now his shoulder is injured. I think he knows he is the 2nd best receiver on his team, and he wants to force his way out of Cincinnati. Still, he is a favorite of Fantasy owners and has been going near Steve Smith with the 39th pick of most drafts. Ocho Cinquo was the 6th best wide receiver in 2007 with 12 points per game. In my Atlanta draft, which was receiver and quarterback heavy in the early rounds, Ocho was taken with the 28th pick.
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