Monday, December 29, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 17

Start’em or Sit’em

*Did not make any player picks for NFL Week 17, 2008

2008 Overall Total: 90-62-5


My Picks

Wins: Raiders, Steelers, Colts, Rams, Bengals, Cardinals, Chargers
Losses: Bills, Bears, Vikings, Panthers, Jaguars, Jets, Cowboys
Push: Lions, Redskins
Total: 7-7-2

2008 Overall Total: 134-114-8 (with a point spread)

Saturday, December 27, 2008

NFL - Week 17

My Picks

@Buccaneers -13 Raiders - Raiders
@Steelers -10.5 Browns - Steelers
Titans -3 @Colts - Colts
@Falcons -14.5 Rams - Rams
Patriots -6.5 @Bills - Bills
@Packers -10 Lions - Lions
@Texans -3 Bears - Bears
@Bengals -3 Chiefs - Bengals
@Vikings -6.5 Giants - Vikings
Panthers -3 @Saints - Panthers
@49ers -3 Redskins - Redskins
@Ravens -12.5 Jaguars - Jaguars
@Cardinals -6 Seahawks - Cardinals
@Eagles -1.5 Cowboys - Cowboys
@Jets -2.5 Dolphins - Jets
@Chargers -9 Broncos - Chargers

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 16

Start’em

Matt Schaub, Texans. Just when you think that you have the NFL figured out, a week unfolds like Week 16. Teams that should have played well lost their games. Schaub was 19-36 for 255 yards with one interception. He probably killed a lot of Fantasy owners that played him as the hot quarterback. The Raiders secondary shut down Andre Johnson as well.

Cedric Benson, Bengals. The Bengals only threw the ball nine times in the entire game. That was a perfect set up for Benson to have a great game. He ended up with a career high 171 yards on 38 carries. A fumble cost him a Fantasy point, but he still ended up with 10 total Fantasy points.

Pierre Thomas, Saints. Many analysts were picking the Lions to upset the Saints this week, but the Saints’ offense was unstoppable. They converted 11-12 on 3rd down conversions. Thomas was a big part of the offense with 13 carries for 77 yards with a touchdown and a fumble. He also had 3 catches for 26 yards.

Tashard Choice, Cowboys. The Cowboys have been struggling, but they are playing Choice who is their third string tailback. Choice did not even see the field in the early part of the season. He was great against the Steelers and Ravens in the past two weeks. He had 17 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown. He also chipped in with 7 catches for 25 yards. He had 13 total Fantasy points.

Kevin Curtis, Eagles. I thought Curtis would be able to play even with his injured calf. He has struggled all year with injuries and a concussion. The Eagles threw the football a ton on Sunday, so Curtis might have been able to get some yards if he was healthy. This was probably my worst pick of the season.

Sit’em

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Rodgers finished the game 24-39 for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns with one interception. Rodgers lost another game, but he had a great year in Fantasy football. He scored 14 Fantasy points in the game last night, and that was actually a below average game for him. Rodgers will be one of the first QBs taken in next year’s draft.

Eli Manning, Giants. In a typical performance, Manning played mistake free and made some clutch plays. He was 17-27 for 181 yards and a touchdown. He also converted a clutch 2-point conversion to wide receiver Domenick Hixon. His 12 Fantasy points is an average game for Manning this season.

Clinton Portis, Redskins. Portis was supposed to play this type of game last week after he had a little war of words with Coach Jim Zorn. There was a question if he would play against the Eagles. He played and played very well. Portis had 81 combined rushing and receiving yards and a touchdown for 11 Fantasy points—a loss for me.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. When the score of this game flashed on the screen, I figured that Brown had a monster game. The Dolphins scored 38 points in the game. Brown played a role in the Wildcat formation, but he only had 53 combined rushing and receiving yards.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. Whenever Roethlisberger throws for over 300 yards, it seems like the Steelers lose the game. They lost to the Titans, but both wide receivers had big games. Holmes came up with his best game of the season. He had 5 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown.

Totals: 4-6 (Overall 90-62-5)

My Picks

Wins: Bengals, Saints, Patriots, Giants
Losses: Jaguars, Cowboys, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Niners, Steelers, Jets, Broncos, Eagles, Vikings, Texans, Packers
Total: 4-12 (Overall 127-107-6)

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 16

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Matt Schaub, Texans. The Texans are holding true to form. They play themselves out of contention, then they string a few wins together at the end of the year. Look for them to win again this week against the hapless Raiders. Schaub has the offensive weapons around him—he has a big time receiver, a sure-handed tight end, and a multi-dimensional running back in Steve Slaton. He should have a big day in Oakland.

Cedric Benson, Bengals. Your Fantasy playoff game is not the best time to make risky roster moves; but if you are looking for a replacement for Brandon Jacobs or Reggie Bush, Benson is worth a hard look this week. He is coming off a big game last week. He had opportunities in the Bengals’ rushing and receiving attack. Benson’s match up against Cleveland is great this Sunday.

Pierre Thomas, Saints. Another below average season for Reggie Bush has paved the way for the emergence of Thomas as the Saints starting running back. I am sure Thomas is making Deuce McCallister look old in practice as well. Thomas is the kind of player that is so hot right now; he can lead a Fantasy team to a league championship. Look for him to have over 120 yards from scrimmage this week and at least one touchdown.

Tashard Choice, Cowboys. Any running back this has success against the vaunted Steelers’ defense earns respect around the NFL. With Marion Barber still hobbled with a dislocated toe, Choice will start this week. His match up against the tough Ravens’ defense is troubling, but the Cowboys are at home, and he is really the only healthy option at running back for O-Coordinator Jason Garrett.

Kevin Curtis, Eagles. Contrary to what that brilliant blonde Kendra from the show “The Girls Next Door” says Kevin Curtis can catch the fade pass. In fact, he caught a touchdown from Donovan McNabb last week. McNabb is brimming with confidence after Monday night’s win versus Cleveland. The Eagles could have scored several more touchdowns in that game. Against the fading Redskins, look for lots of points from the Eagles and a big Fantasy game from Curtis.

Sit’em

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Rodgers has played heroically this year. He has handled the pressure, played with pain, and performed great under pressure. All of that has not translated into wins for the Packers. Their season is over. If the Bears start quickly in this game, Packers’ back up quarterback Brian Brohm may see some action for evaluation purposes.

Eli Manning, Giants. This game is another great Sunday night match up for NBC. The Giants and Panthers still are contending for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Eli deserved his Pro Bowl selection for his performance this season, but the Panthers pass rush has started to dominate games. Eli and the Giants can win this game, but the game shapes up as a low scoring battle.

Clinton Portis, Redskins. Last week, Portis was simply being himself when called Coach Jim Zorn a “genius”. After the controversy, I figured he would come out and have a monster game against the Bengals. That didn’t happen. You have to give credit to Portis he will play injured and play through pain. The problem this week is that this is not a very good time to play a surging Eagles team. No touchdowns for Portis this week.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. I am not sure how Ronnie Brown made the AFC Pro Bowl team. The Wildcat formation is one of the most fun stories of the year in the NFL, but he has not really played that well except for a few isolated games. The Chiefs’ defense totally shut down Ladainian Tomlinson and the Chargers for almost 55 minutes of last week’s game. Look for them to contain Brown as well. The final score for this game might be something like 8-5 in favor of the Chiefs.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. Holmes needs to have a couple of break out games for the Steelers to win games in the playoffs. For some reason, he tends to disappear in road games. Add to that fact that the Titans’ secondary is one of the best in pro football and you have a recipe for a low Fantasy scoring game for Holmes. If the Steelers can get home field in the playoffs, he can make a name for himself this post season.


My Picks

Colts -6.5 @Jaguars - Jaguars
@Cowboys -4.5 Ravens - Cowboys
@Browns -3 Bengals - Bengals
Saints -7 @Lions - Saints
Dolphins -4 @Chiefs - Chiefs
@Buccaneers -3 Chargers - Buccaneers
@Patriots -8 Cardinals - Patriots
Niners -5 @Rams - Niners
Steelers -1.5 @Titans - Steelers
Jets -5 @Seahawks - Jets
@Broncos -7 Bills - Broncos
Texans -7 @Raiders - Texans
Eagles -5 @Redskins - Eagles
@Vikings -3 Falcons - Vikings
@Giants -3 Panthers - Giants
@Bears -4.5 Packers - Bears

Monday, December 15, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 15

Start’em

Philip Rivers, Chargers. Despite San Diego’s terrible record, Rivers has put up some huge stats this year. He has 28 touchdowns on the season. Against the Chiefs, he was 34-48 for 346 yards 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Chargers’ 4th quarter comeback was unbelievable. It was so improbable that Terry Bradshaw on Fox gave the game to the Chiefs when he was doing the highlights.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. In this game, Pennington became the 3rd quarterback in Dolphins’ history to pass for over 3,000 yards in a season. He finished the game 12-19 for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns—13 Fantasy points which is way over his weekly average. He had a 61 yard touchdown to TE David Martin. Pennington is having an MVP type season.

Ryan Grant, Packers. This game was just another disappointing Sunday for Ryan Grant and for the Green Bay Packers. Grant had 21 rushes for 56 yards and 3 catches for 32 yards. 5 total Fantasy points is not bad for a third tier running back, but Grant was a 1st round pick in many Fantasy drafts. Packers’ GM Ted Thompson might have some explaining to do after the Packers’ finish the season under .500.

Lendale White, Titans. Maybe Lendale was distracted by the nickname controversy he stirred up this weekend. The Titans have come back down to Earth after their amazing start to the season. White ended up with only 8 carries for 26 yards. A bad loss for me this week.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. Okay, I take back my comments about Harrison. He has lost a step. Two seasons ago, you never would see this kind of performance from Harrison. He had 2 catches for 22 yards. The Colts keep winning games, but it is hard to figure out how they are doing it.

Sit’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. I have been accused of only picking players to sit based on if they are playing the Steelers’ defense. That seems like a good philosophy this year. Flacco was 11-28 for 115 yards and two interceptions. He ended up with -1 points in Fantasy football this week. The Steelers’ defense is having one of the best years in the history of the NFL.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Big Ben moved the football up and down the field against the Ravens, but he could only muster up one score for the offense. He was 22-40 for 246 yards and a touchdown. He also had 21 yards rushing for a total of 13 Fantasy points. A solid game against the tough Ravens’ defense.

Steve Slaton, Texans. The Titans kept Slaton in check for most of the day, but he was able to break a big run in the last five minutes of the game. He had good yardage totals, but he still had a below average game for his standards. Slaton finished the game with 24 carries for 100 yards and 3 catches for 15 yards. His 7 Fantasy points is way below his weekly average.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. You have to feel terrible for the Bills and Head Coach Dick Jauron. They lost this game on a freakish J.P. Losman fumble that the Jets returned for a defensive touchdown. Lynch had a big game and finished with 140 combined rushing and receiving yards for 9 Fantasy points.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. Owens finished the game with 3 catches for 38 yards. You almost have to start him every week, because he can explode for huge Fantasy point totals. The problem is that Owens rarely delivers a big game .

Totals: 5-5 (Overall 86-56-5)

My Picks

Wins: Lions, Seahawks, Niners, Texans, Vikings, Patriots, Steelers, Panthers, Cowboys, Eagles
Losses: Saints, Jets, Packers, Chargers, Redskins
Push: Falcons
Total: 10-5-1 (Overall 123-95-6)

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 15

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Philip Rivers, Chargers. The statistics say that Rivers is a top 5 Fantasy football quarterback, but his play has been erratic all season. Playing him every week is like riding a roller coaster. There is no evidence for this, but I feel like the Chargers are going to make a run in these last three games and have a chance to make the playoffs. Look for Rivers to have over 250 yards and maybe a touchdown this weekend.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. Pennington is one of a handful of NFL players that should be mentioned as an MVP candidate. What if the Dolphins had Chad Henne or John Beck playing quarterback? They would be in deep trouble. The Niners have been playing better since the promotion of Mike Singletary to head coach, but the cross country trip to Miami and the South Beach night life should give the Dolphins an edge. Look for Pennington to continue his MVP caliber play with a 300 yard game this week.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Have you ever heard the term Fantasy kryptonite? That is a specific player that you keep playing or keep drafting that never plays well enough for you to win. The kind of guy that in real life plays just well enough to get the coach fired. I stayed with Grant all year and finished with a mind numbing .500 record. You know that means that Grant is going to play great these last three weeks. Combine that knowledge with his match up against the weak Jaguars run defense and you have a recipe for a big day for Grant.

Lendale White, Titans. Coach Jeff Fisher has pushed all the right buttons this year for the Titans. He has used rookie running back Chris Johnson with Lendale White to form a formidable one-two punch. Maybe White was right a couple of weeks ago when he complained about not getting the ball enough against the Jets. He had a touchdown last week and should score again this week. Even at home, the Texans always give up a lot of yards and points.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. The naysayers have been killing Marvin Harrison all year about how he has lost a step. He is coming off a severe knee injury and those injuries usually take two years to come back to full strength. Harrison is kind of like the Colts in that he has quietly started to catch touchdown as the Colts have quietly won six straight games. Everyone on the Colts’ offense should put up big numbers against the Lions. The big fear is that if the game is a blowout, Coach Dungy will pull the starters.

Sit’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. Rookie quarterbacks have been money this year. Two weeks ago, I was burned by Flacco and Matt Ryan. The problem for Flacco is that he has a terrible match up this week against the Steelers. The Steelers’ defense has not allowed any team to gain 300 total yards in a game this season. Flacco might play well enough to lead the Ravens to a win, but he will not pass for over 200 yards.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. This Steelers versus Ravens game is guaranteed to be a low scoring affair. Check the weather for this game in Baltimore before setting your line up. In cold, snowy weather, ranks your running backs higher than your quarterbacks and wide receivers. Additionally, the Ravens’ secondary has been all over the field the past two games. Baltimore’s defense only gives up an average of 7 Fantasy points to quarterbacks each week. Safety Ed Reed has about a fifty percent chance of taking an interception or fumble recovery back for a touchdown.

Steve Slaton, Texans. For a very low Fantasy draft pick, Slaton has emerged as one of the ten best rookies in 2008. Barring a late season injury, he probably will be a first or second round Fantasy pick in 2009. But, I still would not play him this week against the Titans. The Titans are going to shut down the Texans’ running attack. The only way that the Texans can win this game is if QB Matt Schaub has a monster game and throws over 40 times.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. Lynch has not been able to get into the end zone lately. He is getting some yards for the Bills in the rushing and passing attack, but he has not scored any touchdowns. The Jets’ defense is still underrated. If you take out road trips to the West Coast, the Jets are having a great year. Another problem for Lynch is the unsettled quarterback position for the Bills. J.P. Losman is terrible and Trent Edwards has lost his confidence. Look for the Bills to lose another game at New York this week.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. After watching Owens bail out on Tony Romo’s first interception against the Steelers, I understand why Romo does not count on Owens in crunch time. Romo does not know for sure that T.O. is going to run the correct pass route. Owens actually stopped running his pattern against Pittsburgh. Forget about the Cowboys for 2008—a loss to the Giants on Sunday night ends their season.

My Picks

@Bears -3 Saints - Saints
@Jets -8 Bills - Jets
@Panthers -7.5 Broncos - Panthers
@Colts -17 Lions - Lions
Packers -2 @Jaguars - Packers
@Ravens -3 Steelers - Steelers
Chargers -5.5 @Chiefs - Chargers
Seahawks -2 @Rams - Seahawks
@Dophins -6.5 Niners - Niners
@Falcons -3 Buccaneers - Falcons
Titans -3 @Texans - Texans
Redskins -6.5 @Bengals - Redskins
@Cardinals -3.5 Vikings - Vikings
Patriots -7 @Oakland - Patriots
@Cowboys -3 Giants - Cowboys
@Eagles -14 Browns - Eagles

Monday, December 8, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 14

Start’em

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. When he stays healthy like this year, this guy is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. McNabb was 19-30 for 191 yards and a touchdown. He finished the game with a total of 11 Fantasy points, but more importantly for Eagles’ fans he beat the Giants to keep the team’s hopes for a playoff berth still alive.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. I knew this pick was in trouble when the highlight of Frerotte was him getting his back stretched on the training table. Frerotte left the game in the 2nd quarter with a back injury. He was 7-10 for 70 yards and two interceptions. Count this as a loss.

Frank Gore, Niners. Gore was on his way to a monster game for the Niners against the Jets. When he hurt his left ankle early in the 3rd quarter, he already had 14 rushes for 52 yards and 3 catches for 13 yards and a touchdown. Even though he did not come back into the game, his touchdown was enough to make Gore a solid start this week in Fantasy football.

Wes Welker, Patriots. When the book is written about the 2008 Patriots, Welker is going to be their team offensive MVP. He is leading the NFL in receptions and yesterday was a perfect example of how important he is to young quarterback Matt Cassell. Welker was open all over the field and finished the game with 12 catches for 134 yards. He also scored a clutch 2 point conversion for 10 total Fantasy points.

Steve Breaston, Cardinals. Something happened in the 2nd half to the Cardinals’ offense. They were moving the ball all over the place in the 1st half. Maybe, they eased off in the 2nd half. Breaston was able to score above his weekly Fantasy average this week with 7 catches for 90 yards.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. The AFC West is the most unpredictable conference in the NFL. This is probably because all of the teams are so inconsistent. LJ was terrible against Denver on Sunday. He finished the game with 11 carries for 36 yards.

Sit’em

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. Before tonight’s Monday night game, I saw a graphic that Delhomme is 7-2 in his career against Tampa Bay. Delhomme finished the game 14-20 for 173 yards and a touchdown and 2 interceptions. That is a meager total of 5 Fantasy points. The Panthers rushed for over 300 yards as a team, so Delhomme could afford an off night.

Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels, Texans. Forgive me, Schaub fans. After four weeks off, Schaub looked great in leading the Texans to a huge road win. He was 28-42 for 414 yards for 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. That is a whopping 21 Fantasy points and probably the best day of any quarterback this week. He found Kevin Walter for almost 150 of those yards.

Willie Parker, Steelers. The cold weather and poor field conditions doomed Parker to a limited role in his game versus the Cowboys. Mewelde Moore carried the biggest load in the Steelers’ running attack. Parker needs a week off to get back to close to 100%. He had 12 rushes for 25 yards and this was a good week to sit him on your bench.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. You can put a fork the Cleveland Browns—their season is done. These guys are just playing out the season. With Ken Dorsey now at quarterback, Lewis is the only player that defenses have to stop. The Titans killed him yesterday and held him to 7 rushes for 7 yards and 2 receptions for 3 yards. Sit all Browns for the rest of the Fantasy playoffs.

Total: 7-3 (Overall 81-51-5)

My Picks

Wins: Chargers, Titans, Bears, Saints, Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles, Dolphins, Niners, Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens
Losses: Bengals, Packers, Patriots, Buccaneers
Total: 12-4 (Overall 113-90-5)

Fantasy Games. My 2008 Fantasy Football season is over. I was not able to make the playoffs in either of my leagues. I finished right in the middle of the pack in a season doused with mediocrity. I really made some bad decisions in one league. For example, one week I played Jeff Garcia over Kurt Warner. Garcia had won me a game the week before and I thought he was on a hot streak. Secondly, early in the year, I had Edgerrin James and I took him out of the line up against the Jets. The Jets’ game was Edge’s best game of the year! With my last hope at a playoff berth riding on yesterday’s results, Hines Ward could not even get a point! Luckily for me, the Steelers continue to make this a great regular season.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 14

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Everyone is expecting McNabb and the Eagles to plummet back down to Earth this week against the Giants. The exact opposite is going to happen. The Eagles and McNabb are going to break through against their rivals with a 30 plus point game. Brian Westbrook and the receiving corps is finally healthy. Coach Andy Reid is great in weeks after byes and the Eagles have had a few extra days to prepare, because they played on Thanksgiving Day.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. With injuries and quarterback shuffling, you might be looking for a quarterback this week to fill in for your normal starter. Frerotte deserves a hard look as a starter, because of his match up against the Lions. This game is on the road for the Vikings, but with the apathy in Detroit, there might be more Vikings’ fans at the game. Look for Coach Brad Childress to open up the offense a little more and allow Frerotte to throw a couple of deep passes.

Frank Gore, Niners. Gore is one of these guys that gets stronger towards the end of the season when other players are breaking down and making vacation plans. For some reason, the Jets have not played well on the West coast in two previous trips this season. This game shapes up to be a low scoring affair and Gore will score two touchdowns—one rushing and one on a screen pass.

Wes Welker, Patriots. Undoubtedly, you saw the devastating hit that Welker took last week against the Steelers. He did not come back into the game after the hit, but he should be good to go this week against the Seahawks. Look for the Patriots’ offense to get back on track against a pourous Seattle defense. Welker should get plenty of targets from Matt Cassel and Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniel—maybe a touchdown this week will ease the pain of being jacked up on every TV highlight package last Sunday.

Steve Breaston, Cardinals. The Cardinals are a two touchdown favorite against the Rams and that might be a conservative estimate. My prediction is that Kurt Warner is going to throw almost 50 times in this game. The short passing game will actually set up the downfield passing game. Even though Breaston is the third wide receiver, he actually is targeted for longer passes. In this game, start Breaston and any other Cardinals offensive players that you have.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. If LJ is on your team, ride him for the rest of the Fantasy season and the playoffs. He had a monster game against the Broncos with almost 200 yards rushing when these teams played the first time. This week will be no different. Johnson is flying under the radar and playing with a chip on his shoulder. When this guy has something to prove, he plays his best football.

Sit’em

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. In Week 6 when these teams played in Tampa, Delhomme threw 3 interceptions. Last week, the Buccaneers held Drew Brees in check. It has been awhile since the Panthers played in nationally televised big game, while Tampa was in the playoffs last year. The prediction here is that the Buccaneers are going to harass Delhomme into some mistakes and they will become the first road team to get a win in the tough NFC South division.

Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels, Texans. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Texans should not be starting for your Fantasy team this week. According to a Houston Chronicle report, Schaub participated fully in practice and is going to start on Sunday. I think switching quarterbacks at this point is going to back fire on the Texans. Both of these guys probably take some snaps in a terrible road loss to the Packers.

Willie Parker, Steelers. Fast Willie’s wheels still are flat—his knee is bothering him and its affecting his running ability. He is going to split carries with Mewelde Moore and the Steelers are going with running back Gary Russell in short yardage situations. Because both defenses are playing well and Heinz Field is in terrible condition, this game is probably a low scoring contest. Sit Parker out this week.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. The Browns might not score a point this week. The only way they score is if Josh Cribbs runs back a punt or a kickoff for a touchdown. Everything is against Lewis: the Titans’ defense is great against the run; the Browns are starting the rusty Ken Dorsey (calling Dorsey a journeyman quarterback would be a compliment); the Titans’ crowd gives them great homefield advantage; and the Titans have had an extra week to get ready for the game. Sorry Browns’ fans, Titans win this game 31-0.

My Picks

@Chargers -9 Raiders - Chargers
@Saints -3 Falcons - Saints
@Colts -13.5 Bengals - Bengals
@Titans -14 Browns - Titans
@Packers -5.5 Texans - Packers
@Bears -6.5 Jaguars - Bears
@Lions Pick Vikings - Vikings
@Giants -6.5 Eagles - Eagles
@Broncos -9 Chiefs - Chiefs
@Bills -1 Dolphins - Dolphins
Patriots -4.5 @Seahawks - Patriots
Jets -3.5 @Niners - Niners
@Steelers -3 Cowboys - Steelers
@Cardinals -14 Rams - Cardinals
@Ravens -5 Redskins - Ravens
@Panthers -3 Buccaneers - Buccaneers

Monday, December 1, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 13

Start’em

Trent Edwards, Bills. Losing to the Niners on Sunday was costly for the Bills. They had a chance to make up some ground in the AFC East. The Bills also lost Edwards for the second half with a groin injury. Before the injury, Edwards was 10-21 for 112 yards and 3 Fantasy points. Edwards only played in the first half, but that is still a loss.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. The Chiefs only have won twice in the past twenty games or so, but they were able to beat the Raiders behind LJ’s running and a botched fake field goal attempt by the Raiders. Johnson had a solid day with 24 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs could play a spoiler role in the final games of the season.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Not sure that anyone else was watching this game tonight, but Slaton put on a show against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are up there with the Chargers as the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year. Slaton had a monster game with two long touchdown runs on back to back carries in the 4th quarter.

Ricky Williams, Dolphins. The Dolphins won this game, but it was not pretty. The offense was unable to score against the Rams who were giving up a ton of points. Ronnie Brown had the only goal line opportunity and he scored. Williams finished the game wit only 12 carries for 54 yards.

Antonio Gates, Chargers. The Chargers are one of the most disappointing teams in recent memory. These guys were a couple of big plays from reaching the Super Bowl last season. Gates looked gimpy and Philip Rivers was off target all day long. Gates had 3 catches for 27 yards.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ryan just keeps proving doubters like me wrong. He was great on Sunday in San Diego. He was 17-23 for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. He hit on almost 75 % of his passes and that was with a couple of dropped passes. The Falcons are a team to be reckoned with over the next four weeks, and Ryan is a big reason why they would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Joe Flacco, Ravens. The rookie quarterbacks were on their games this week. Flacco was 19-29 for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns. He picked up another point with 15 rushing yards. The 70 yard touchdown pass to Mark Clayton was a laser. Depending on his weekly match up, Flacco is a solid starting option.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Grant owners have to be frustrated with his performance this season. The Panthers defense bounced back and held Grant to only 12 carries for 39 yards. The Packers have yet to find the offensive balance of running and passing the ball. They were ahead in the 4th quarter but could not hold the lead.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos. Marshall finished the game with 5 catches for 55 yards. The Broncos had a huge win, but the main wide receiver in the game was Eddie Royal. For some reason, Marshall has fallen off in the past month. He still is a great wide receiver option, because the Broncos are going to throw the football a lot.

Lance Moore, Saints. 2 catches for 15 yards, but one catch was for a touchdown. Moore was not able to get open against the tough Buccaneers’ defense, but he was able to catch a 13 yard touchdown strike over the middle from Drew Brees. Moore’s touchdown gave him a total of 7 Fantasy points which is an average game for him this season.

Totals: 4-6 (Overall 74-48-5)

My Picks

Wins: Cowboys, Eagles, Browns, Giants, Panthers, Steelers, Chiefs, Vikings, Texans
Losses: Lions, Bills, Bengals, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jets, Chargers
Total: 9-7 (Overall 101-86-5)

Friday, November 28, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 13

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Trent Edwards, Bills. Early in the year, Edwards was being mentioned as the next great NFL quarterback. Now, after a couple of bad games and a concussion against the Cardinals, people have forgotten how good he can be. The Bills exploded for over 50 points last week and I expect them to have another huge game at home against the Niners.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. It is hard to believe that the Raiders are favored to win this game. The Chiefs have been throwing the football more in the past few weeks, but the strength of the Raiders defense is in their secondary. LJ still has some life in his legs. The Chiefs throw the football enough this week to open up running lanes for Johnson. This game looks like an upset win for the Chiefs.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Without much fan fare, the Texans’ offense has been putting up points every week. Slaton has been their best running back all year, and his opportunities should increase even more with the Ahman Green injury. Slaton now should get any short yardage goal line carries. He is also one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL at catching the ball out of the backfield.

Ricky Williams, Dolphins. Any player on the Dolphins’ offense is a great start this week. The Rams have not been able to stop any opponents in the last few weeks. Williams’ had an amazing, diving touchdown catch last week. With Ronnie Brown’s injury history, look for Williams to have the bulk of the carries in the 2nd half of this game.

Antonio Gates, Chargers. The Chargers are a desperate team. They have had a bunch of close losses which include one of the worst officiating blunders in recent memory. At home, this team still is tough to beat. Gates is one of these players that play the best when his team needs him to come up big. The prediction here is a 100 yard game for Gates and at least one touchdown.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. In 2008, rookies have played important roles for a number of teams. The NFL Rookie of the Year is going to be a close vote. Ryan should be near the top of that list. He has provided a steadying influence for the Falcons’ offense. He is due to have a rocky road start. With recently promoted Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera, the Chargers have been blitzing more. Look for a tough late afternoon game for Ryan.

Joe Flacco, Ravens. The conventional wisdom would say to start Flacco this week against the Bengals. This week is the one where these rookie quarterbacks are going to hit a wall physically. The NFL season is a brutal grind and these guys are just not used to the length of the season. In their last home game against Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, the Bengals gave up just 13 total points with 3 interceptions, a fumble recovery, and 2 sacks. This game sets up as a low scoring contest.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Grant is facing a group of wounded cats this week. The Panthers defense has been tough all year and has not given up many Fantasy points, but the Falcons embarrassed them last week. Running back Michael Turner had a huge game. But, I think that was an aberration. Against the Packers this week, the Panthers’ dominant defense returns. Do not start Ryan Grant this week.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos. In his last seven games, Marshall has only score one touchdown. His production has really fallen off as the Broncos’ have been decimated at the running back position. Teams can key on Marshall because they do not have to worry about any running game. Marshall owners also have to realize how tough the Jets have been against their opponent’s top receiver.

Lance Moore, Saints. Moore has been steadily climbing up the wide receiver rankings. He is now a top 10 Fantasy receiver, but this week he runs into an underrated Buccaneers’ defense. Moore’s rise has coincided with a week schedule for the Saints. When these teams played in Week 1, Moore had 2 catches for 17 yards. My take is that the Buccaneers control the clock, pressure QB Drew Brees, and take away Moore’s yards after the catch. If you have any other options, give Moore a one week rest.

My Picks

Titans -10.5 @Lions - Lions
@Cowboys -13 Seahawks - Cowboys
@Eagles -3 Cardinals - Eagles
@Bills -6 Niners - Bills
Ravens -7 @Bengals - Bengals
Colts -5 @Browns - Browns
@Packers -3 Panthers - Panthers
@Jets -8 Broncos - Jets
Dolphins -8.5 @Rams - Dolphins
@Buccaneers -3.5 Saints - Buccaneers
Giants -3.5@Redskins - Giants
@Chargers -5 Falcons - Chargers
@Patriots -1 Steelers - Steelers
@Raiders -3 Chiefs - Chiefs
@Vikings -3 Bears - Vikings
@Texans -3 Jaguars - Texans

Monday, November 24, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 12

Start’em

Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers. The Lions jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but Garcia was able to help bring the Bucs back. An interception return and a punt return for a touchdown helped out the cause. Garcia was 13-18 for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. He finished the game with 13 Fantasy points which is double his average and a solid game for Garcia owners.

Eli Manning, Giants. Brandon Jacobs ended up inactive for the game and Plaxico Burress injured his hamstring during the game. Manning had to throw especially in the red zone. He came up big for the Giants with 26 completions for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. Manning ended up scoring 20 Fantasy points for the game.

Matt Forte, Bears. Once again Forte proved to be the Bears’ best offensive player against the Rams. Forte had 20 carries for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was not much of a factor in the passing game with only 2 catches for 14 yards. He did have a fumble for a negative point. Forte had a great 47 yard touchdown run.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers. Tomlinson has been a consensus top 3 pick in the last four or five years in Fantasy football. This season he has really fallen off and has dropped to the 15th best running back. The problem is that he is not scoring touchdowns this season. Last night was a typical game—he had 21 carries for 84 yards and 3 catches for 30 yards. That is 7 Fantasy points. An okay game, but Tomlinson owners expect more. I am calling this a loss.

Roddy White, Falcons. In a huge win for the Falcons, White was not a huge factor. He finished the game with 70 combined rushing and receiving yards and a fumble. White has been having a great season so far, and he will bounce back in the next few games.

Sit’em

Jason Campbell, Redskins. The Redskins needed a win against the Seahawks and they were able to come through in the end. Campbell did a great job managing the game. He finished 20-33 for 206 yards and 1 touchdown. He also chipped in on the ground with 6 rushes for 32 yards. Campbell’s 12 Fantasy points is an above average game for him. Call this one a loss for me.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. Some people were picking the Jaguars to go to the Super Bowl, but at this point, they will be lucky to win 5 games. MJD did nothing on the ground Sunday, but he was effective in the passing game. He had 3 rushes for 4 yards and 9 catches for 113 yards. His 7 total Fantasy points is way under his weekly average.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. In the first meeting in September, Brown had 36 Fantasy points—this Sunday he had 3 Fantasy points. The Patriots traveled down to Miami and took care of the Dolphins. Brown had 47 combined rushing and receiving yards. For some reason, the Dolphins put up a bunch of points, but Brown was not involved in any of the scoring plays.

Brian Westbrook, Eagles. During the week, Westbrook had sore ribs and some other ailments, but he ended up playing in the game. He probably should not have played. He had 14 carries for 39 yards and 2 catches for -5 yards for 2 Fantasy points. The Ravens’ defense bounced back in a big way after the debacle last week against the Giants. In a huge rout, the Ravens’ defense almost scored 30 Fantasy points.

Justin Gage, Titans. Gage was one of the hottest names on the waiver wire this week. He was the number one pick up on many Fantasy sites. This week he ran up against one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Darelle Revis of the Jets. Gage ended the game with only 1 catch for 37 yards. He is just another inconsistent wide receiver.

Totals: 8-2 (Overall 70-42-5)

My Picks

Win: Steelers, Texans, Bears, Jets, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, Giants, Seahawks, Raiders, Saints
Loss: Chiefs, Dolphins, Panthers, Chargers
Total: 12-4 (Overall 92-79-5)

Fantasy Games. I needed a 2-0 week in the worst way. I am on the outside of the playoff picture in both of my Fantasy leagues. Okay, after Sunday, I have already lost one of the games and I am pretty much out of the playoff picture in my Atlanta league. In my Dallas league game this week, I am ahead going into tonight’s Saints game. I have Ryan Grant going, but my opponent has Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas. Needless to say, I will be watching this game and cheering for Grant the Packers.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 12

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers. Real life often imitates Fantasy football. In Garcia’s case, he does not rank very high on the list of NFL quarterbacks, but he should. He has scored big against a couple of the best defenses in the league. This week the Buccaneers play the Lions—a great match up for Garcia. You also should start Garcia, because the game is indoors and the Bucs are missing starting running back Earnest Graham. Warrick Dun will start and he gives Garcia another weapon in the passing game. Look for over 300 yards from Garcia on Sunday.

Eli Manning, Giants. If I am a part of the Giants’ organization, the game this Sunday with Arizona scares me. The travel, the crowd noise, and the Cardinals’ offense are against the Giants. Starting running back Brandon Jacobs might not play. The great thing for Eli Manning owners is that this game will be a high scoring affair. The prediction is another 35 plus point game for the Giants with Eli throwing for at least 2 touchdowns.

Matt Forte, Bears. Surprisingly, as a rookie running back, Forte has been the most consistent offensive player for the Bears. He probably is the team’s MVP for the 2008 season. He can hurt a defense in the passing game as well. The Rams defense has been terrible. In the last two games, they have been down by over 30 points at half time. Forte is going to have a monster Fantasy game; my only concern is that he might only play three quarters of the game.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers. San Diego has been very good at home this year. They might go 8-8 and win all their home games and lose all of their road games. LT has not had his normal statistical year, but it was about this time last year that San Diego made a run and that Tomlinson started dominating games. Plus, the Colts’ defense looks to be without the highly regarded run stopping safety Bob Sanders. Start LT and look for over 100 yards in total offense.

Roddy White, Falcons. The Falcons best wide receiver is having a great year. He is definitely a Pro Bowl selection and maybe an All Pro if he finishes the season with a flurry. However, fans are complaining about his dropped touchdown pass against Denver. By accepting the blame in interviews after the game, White probably earned more respect with coaches and teammates. Look for him to get a ton of targets this week and to redeem himself with a huge game in the Falcons biggest game in a long time.

Sit’em

Jason Campbell, Redskins. In the last two games, Campbell has faced tough defenses, but I am not sure that is why he is playing poorly. On offense, a few of the key Redskins’ players are injured and not playing that well. Portis and Santana Moss are hurting and they were guys making the big plays for Campbell earlier in the season. With a still hostile Seahawks’ home crowd and unpredictable weather against him, sit Campbell this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. I know MJD has scored nine touchdowns in the past six games, but this match up against the Vikings’ defense is going to slow him down. Yards in the running game are going to be hard to come by for the Jaguars. Also, this time of year is usually when Fred Taylor starts running well. The Jaguars are basically out of playoff contention and the Vikings are a desperate team playing with a chance to still win the division.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. The best overall Fantasy game of the year was Brown’s performance in the first Dolphins versus Patriots game--the rebirth of the Wildcat Formation in NFL circles. Brown ran, passed, and handed off in a big win for the Dolphins. New England and Coach Belichick have had a three extra days to prepare for the Dolphins. That is a bad situation and match up for Brown this weekend.

Brian Westbrook, Eagles. The Ravens were embarrassed last week by the Giants’ running attack. Usually, I think that the pride factor for NFL players is over stated, but not in the case of the Ravens. Both defenses should dominate the offenses in this game. Plus, Westbrook with his sore ribs is always one big hit away from being out of the game. If you have viable options at running back this week, consider sitting Westbrook.

Justin Gage, Titans. Quarterback Kerry Collins has found a favorite wide receiver in the Titans’ passing attack. Gage has been hot for the past two weeks, but this Sunday he runs into a Jets’ defensive secondary that is playing at a high level. Yes, they gave up 400 passing yards to Matt Cassel last week, but Gage is not Randy Moss or Wes Welker for that matter. Cornerback Darelle Revis for the Jets should blanket Gage for most of the day.

My Picks

@Steelers -10.5 Bengals - Steelers
@Ravens -1.5 Eagles - Ravens
Buccaneers -8.5 @Lions - Buccaneers
@Browns -3 Texans - Texans
@Jaguars -2 Vikings - Vikings
Bills -3 @Chiefs - Chiefs
Bears -8.5 @Rams - Bears
@Dolphins -2 Patriots - Dolphins
@Titans -4.5 Jets - Jets
@Cowboys -10 Niners - Cowboys
@Broncos -9.5 Raiders - Raiders
Redskins -3.5 @Seahawks - Seahawks
Giants -3 @Cardinals - Giants
@Falcons -1 Panthers - Panthers
@Chargers -2.5 Colts - Chargers
@Saints -2.5 Packers - Saints

Monday, November 17, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 11

Start’em

Jay Cutler, Broncos. The Broncos corps of no name running backs actually played well against the Falcons. The running game accounted for a couple of touchdowns. Cutler played a solid game. He made several big throws to lead the Broncos to a victory. Culter finished the game 19-27 for 216 yards and one touchdown—a 9 yard touchdown pass to TE Daniel Graham.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. The MNF game was a wild game. The Bills turned the football over all night long, but somehow were able to score some points. Lynch was okay in the running game, but he was great in the Bills’ short passing game. As far as yards go, this was one of his best games. Lynch finished the game with 23 carries for 119 yards, and he had 10 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Joseph Addai, Colts. Addai has been struggling. He entered the game as the 42nd ranked running back in Fantasy football. Addai has his opportunities and he delivered big time. He had 22 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown. In the passing game, Addai caught 4 passes for 48 yards and a touchdown. He might have had the best game of the weekend of any running back.

Chris Johnson, Titans. Johnson was an important part of the Titans winning and improving to 10-0, but he had a below average Fantasy game. He had 17 rushes for 64 yards and 4 catches for 24 yards. His 5 Fantasy points were half his normal per game average. This pick was a loss.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. Owens finished the game with 5 catches for 38 yards. Tony Romo’s return did not really mean more opportunities for Owens. For some reason, Owens cannot break big plays or get behind the defense. Owens has not a 100 yard receiving game for over a year, but it is very hard not to play him if he is on your Fantasy roster.

Sit’em

Kerry Collins, Titans. The situation at halftime looked bleak for the Titans. The Jaguars were up 14-3 and looked like they were in complete control. Collins led the Titans to a huge comeback. He only completed 13-23 for 230 yards, but he threw 3 touchdown passes. Collins finished with 17 total fantasy points. He hit Justin Gage with two long passes of 56 and 38 yards for touchdowns.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. Frerotte finished the game 14-20 for 138 yards and a touchdown. He had a 4 yard touchdown pass to Bobby Wade. The Tampa defense shut down Adrian Peterson on the ground and Gus Frerotte in the passing attack. Tampa Bay’s defense needs to get some more press as one of the toughest in the NFL.

Reggie Bush, Saints. After pretty much guaranteeing that he would play, Bush was ruled out Friday for the Saints game against the Chiefs. Luckily, I already had written this column which said not to play Bush because he does not play hurt. For that reason, I am counting this as a win.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. The bad weather conditions did not stop Roethlisberger from throwing for over 300 yards, but most of those yards went to Hines Ward. Holmes only had 5 catches for 63 yards. He is due for a big game at some point, isn’t he?

Braylon Edwards, Browns. Edwards finshed the game with 8 catches for 104 yards. Those stats only add up to 6 Fantasy points, but that total is better than Edwards’ per game average. Edwards had about 4 other drops, but still chalk this up as a loss for me.

Totals: 6-4 (Overall 62-40-5)

My Picks

Wins: Jets, Packers, Broncos, Texans, Buccaneers, Bengals, Lions, Cardinals, Niners, Cowboys
Losses: Dolphins, Ravens, Chiefs, Jaguars, Steelers, Bills
Total: 10-6 (Overall 80-75-5)

Fantasy Games. Very few games have gone my way this year in Fantasy football and this week appeared to be more of the same. I had some commitments on Sunday, but when I finally logged on to check my Fantasy game score, I was behind in my Atlanta league 58-1. That was not a good feeling. My team came back, but I was one of the unlucky souls that own the Steelers’ defense. The defense had a very good game, but if the disputed Polamalu touchdown would have counted it would have been a great game. I need those points, because now I am behind in my game by 7 points with Rian Lindell playing in the game tonight. Go Lindell! Okay, I do not want to get too happy here, but Lindell just kicked an extra point in the 4th quarter to put me ahead. Oh, I feel bad for Lindell he just missed a game winning 47 yard kick!

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 11

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Jay Cutler, Denver. The Broncos went out and signed Tatum Bell this week. That fact alone tells you the state of the Broncos’ running game--terrible. The Falcons’ defense is very tough against the run. Relying on Cutler to have a monster game is the only way that the Broncos can win this game. Look for over 40 passing attempts from Cutler. He is primed for another 400 yard passing day.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. The past two weeks Lynch’s struggles have mirrored the Bills’ fall from grace. Analysts were calling QB Trent Edwards an MVP candidate. The Bills have forgotten that running the football is their strength. Lynch and the Bills get back on track this week on Monday Night Football against the Browns. Look for Lynch to rush for over 100 yards and score two touchdowns in a prime time performance.

Joseph Addai, Colts. Addai has been struggling, but he has a great match up this weekend against the Texans. The Texans are 27th in the league in Fantasy points allowed. This game should be a high scoring shoot out with both teams scoring over 30 points. In each of the last two games, Addai has had double figure carries, but he has not produced. This week he gets the opportunities, and he delivers for Peyton Manning and Coach Tony Dungy.

Chris Johnson, Titans. Surprisingly, the Jaguars defense is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing defense. In Fantasy, the Jags give up an average of 14 Fantasy points to opposing running backs—18th in the NFL. The Bears showed everyone in the league that you can stop the Titans’ running attack by stacking the box, but the Titans still won the game. Johnson had a terrible game versus the Bears, but he will bounce back in this road game.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. Everyone is writing the Cowboys’ obituary for the 2008 season, but I think this team is going to make a run. The bright lights of the nationally televised Sunday night game on NBC will bring out either the best or the worst in Owens. I think he comes up with his best game of the season. With QB Tony Romo returning from his pinky injury, Owens will finally break the 100 yard mark and score two touchdowns.

Sit’em

Kerry Collins, Titans. Do not get me wrong Collins is leading the Titans to wins, but I am not a believer in his Fantasy value. The Titans’ receivers just are not that impressive. He has developed a rapport with TE Bo Scaife, but no one on the outside scares any defensive coordinator. The Titans should be able to run the football against the Jags this week which will limit Collins’ throwing opportunities.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. NFL Week 11 is bench the old veteran quarterback week. Tampa Bay’s defense is quietly one of the league’s best. They give up just under 10 Fantasy points per game to the opposing team’s quarterback. Frerotte will not be any better this Sunday. With the bye weeks over, Frerotte’s value as a spot starter is history.

Reggie Bush, Saints. On one of my Fantasy team, Bush was my leading point scorer until the injury, but I never felt comfortable that he was going to deliver consistently week in and week out--too much Hollywood influence. If you have other options at running back, give Bush a week to prove he is back from his injury. His is fast and elusive and that ability is based on his legs. I am taking my own advice this week and keeping Bush on the bench.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. What is going on with the Steelers? The tough schedule is catching up with this team. The quarterback situation is in such disarray that you should sit Holmes this week. Coach Mike Tomlin should start Byron Leftwich and give Big Ben a chance to rest. The problem for Holmes is that he gets opportunities down the field and outside the numbers. With his injuries, Roethlisberger’s arm is not strong enough to make those throws.

Braylon Edwards, Browns. This season has been disappointing for Edwards. He has been inconsistent and he barely is averaging 5 Fantasy points per game. His situation is similar to Santonio Holmes’ predicament in Pittsburgh. The Browns’ new quarterback Brady Quinn will not throw deep down the field. Quinn is more likely to look for his running backs and tight ends. Play TE Kellen Winslow, but sit Edwards this week.

My Picks

@Patriots -3 Jets – Jets
@Giants -6.5 Ravens - Ravens
@Green Bay -3.5 Bears – Green Bay
@Falcons -6 Broncos - Broncos
@Panthers -14 Lions - Lions
@Colts -8 Texans - Texans
@Buccaneers -3.5 Vikings - Buccaneers
Saints -5.5 @Chiefs - Chiefs
@Dolphins -10.5 Raiders - Dolphins
Eagles -9 @Bengals - Bengals
Cardinals -3 @Seahawks - Cardinals
@Niners -6 Rams - Niners
@Steelers -4.5 Chargers - Steelers
Titans -3 @Jaguars - Jaguars
Cowboys -1.5 @Redskins - Cowboys
@Bills -4.5 Browns - Bills

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Quick Slants - Reality Football

Here are my quick thoughts on the real world of pro and college football:

The last five minutes of Monday Night Football was excruciating to watch. The Cardinals and Niners game dragged on and on like the last 15 seconds of an NBA game. The penalties were unbelievable. At one point, I thought the Cardinals were trying to lose. Their mishaps paled in comparison to the clock management of Coach Singletary, Mike Martz, and company. The Niners wasted at least 25 seconds and two plays. Here is my advice to Coach Singletary. Do not trust Mike Martz. Martz will do anything to be a head coach again. Singletary should make Martz call the plays from upstairs in the coaches’ booth. Get him off the sidelines. Secondly, Coach Singletary get out of San Francisco. Do not take the head coaching job. You will get an opportunity somewhere else. The Niners are being run by 27 year-old Jed York. He kind of looked like the kid that gets stuffed into a locker after gym class. He is making the football decisions? Insert your own expletive. Singletary needs to do his best in the next seven games and get out of town at the end of the year. Maybe, go coach the Vols.

At this moment, Kurt Warner is not a Hall of Famer. He is a very good player and a great person, but he did not have a long enough sustained period of excellence. The statistics cited on Monday Night Football are impressive, but how many of those 300 yard passing games were racked up in losses? Warner is an MVP candidate this year. If he wins the MVP this year and comes back with another winning season next year, he has a legitimate argument for the Hall of Fame. Remember the Hall of Fame is for great, not very good, players.

The NFL illegal forward pass rule is terrible. The line of scrimmage should be enforced just like the goal line. If the ball is across the line of scrimmage, the offense cannot make a forward pass. The rule as applied in the NY Giants versus the Philadelphia Eagles game makes no sense. That play should have been a penalty for Eli Manning and the Giants. Give credit to Manning, Kevin Gilbride, and Coach Tom Coughlin for knowing the rule.

Matthew Stafford should declare himself eligible for the NFL. The economics alone should be reason enough. The 2009 draft might be the last time rookies can demand the huge guaranteed money in signing bonuses. The NFL should and will adopt a rookie salary scale like the NBA. Top draft picks will have salary slots and maybe a two year guaranteed contract. Staying in school might cost Stafford anywhere from 20-30 million dollars over three years. That number is staggering. Okay, forget the money; there are a ton of other reasons. The immediate success of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco paves the way. Stafford is as physically talented as either of these guys. If he tests well on the personality and intelligence tests, he is a top 10 pick in 2009. He is one of the few quarterbacks eligible for the draft that plays in a pro style offense. Georgia is not going to be better next year. I have a list of about 10 more reasons why he should turn pro; the really difficult job is to come up with any reasons for him to stay for his senior year at Georgia.

The apologists speaking for Georgia Bulldog nation have to stop. In August, Georgia fans were not even talking about Alabama as a legitimate opponent. The Black Out was a bust. The Dawgs lost to Florida 49-10 and the game was not even that close. The fact is the team has not lived up to anyone’s expectations. Accept it and move on. In the real world of college football, Georgia is a regional power. Georgia is not an elite program yet. I am a huge Mark Richt fan. He is the right man for this job, but Coach Richt has to make some changes. There is a lack of discipline off the field and a lack of toughness on the field. The really scary thing for Georgia fans is the unknown of what is going to happen at Tennessee. What if they hire a coach that gets Tennessee back to a national championship contender? Think about these names—Mike Shanahan, Butch Davis, Bill Cowher, Steve Spurrier, Jon Gruden, Brian VanGorder. For the sake of Bulldog fans, I hope Tennessee’s athletic director thinks small.

Shouldn’t Charlie Weiss have been calling the offensive plays for the past three years? He is supposed to be an offensive guru. Notre Dame giving Weiss a ten year contract extension after one year is turning out to be one of the dumbest moves in college football history. I could not be more tired of Coach Weiss. In a sound byte today, he asked where is the program going to go. In college football, teams are either getting better or getting worse. The Irish are getting worse. They are 27-19 with Weiss as the head coach. Ouch. And they are not even playing a very tough schedule. After his first two years, the Irish went to BCS games and proceeded to get blown out. Supposedly, Coach Weiss has between a 14 and 21 million dollar buy out. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish booster club parties are already miserable affairs and now they are going to have to pass the offering plate. I mean they should have lost to San Diego State in week 1.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 10

Start’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. Flacco is emerging as a solid play every week. He is making long throws down the field. The Ravens have some decent weapons around him and a very good running game. Flacco finished the game 15-23 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had a 43 yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Yamon Figurs. Add a 2-point conversion pass to Derrick Mason for a total of 16 Fantasy points.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. Pennington finished the game 22-36 for 209 yards with one touchdown and one interception. I expected better passing stats for Pennington versus the Seahawks. He did hit Ted Ginn on a flea flicker play for a 39-yard touchdown pass. Pennington finished with 8 total Fantasy points.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs. Charles was a waiver wire pick up in a ton of Fantasy leagues. I picked him up and started in him in my Atlanta league. Big mistake. He had 3 carries for 8 yards. His game this week was a huge drop off from his production and touches last week. Chiefs lost another close game.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Against Minnesota, Grant finished the game with 16 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. Grant is making the most of his carries and probably should be getting more chances to run the football. He is starting to live up to his preseason draft status.

Lee Evans, Bills. The Bills and Evans are in free fall. This is the second straight way below average game for Evans. He only had 2 catches for 22 yards. The Bills might start thinking about making a quarterback change. Wide receivers usually are the hardest position to predict, but you have to think hard about starting Evans next week.

Sit’em

Marc Bulger, Rams. Bulger ended up 6-13 for 65 yards and 1 interception. He had a grand total of 0 Fantasy points. Bulger was trending upward the past three weeks until running into the Jets’ defense. Bulger owners should only consider starting him when the Rams play at home, and he has a good match up. Otherwise, find a different QB option.

Eli Manning, Giants. This game had more points scored than I anticipated. The Eagles had a chance to take the lead with a touchdown on the final drive, but could not convert a short 4th down play. Manning finished the game 17-31 for 191 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. An average game for Manning this season.

Deuce McCallister, Saints. The Falcons’ defense shut down the high-powered Saints’ offense. The Saints scored two garbage time 4th quarter touchdowns. Unfortunately for my picks, one touchdown was a 15 yard pass from Drew Brees to McCallister. Deuce finished with only 5 rushes for 18 yards, but he he had 2 catches for 23 yards and a touchdown. The TD helped to double his normal weekly Fantasy point total.

Matt Forte, Bears. Forte did not lose a step even with a new starting quarterback. He is definitely in the top three for Rookie of the Year voting. He had 126 combined rushing and receiving yards which included a 5 yard touchdown pass from Rex Grossman. Forte has been one of the best all around running backs in the NFL this year.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles. I knew this prediction was in trouble when the Eagles lined up with Jackson in the shotgun--their version of the Single Wing formation. Jackson took a direct snap and ran for an early touchdown. McNabb also looked for him throughout the game. Jackson had 85 combined rushing and receiving yards with a touchdown.

Totals: 4-6 (Overall 56-36-5)

My Picks

Wins: Jets, Panthers, Chiefs
Losses: Browns, Bills, Saints, Lions, Dolphins, Bears, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Cardinals
Total: 3-11 (Overall 70-69-5)

Fantasy Games. Wow, this week was my worst of the season at picking games and Fantasy players. The only thing that can save this weekend for me is a huge Monday Night Football game from Kurt Warner and Tim Hightower. I am down 45 points, so I need a monster game from the Cardinals’ offense.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 10

Byes: Cowboys, Redskins, Bengals, Buccaneers

Start’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. Baltimore fans are wacko for quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco has been a surprisingly steady hand for the Ravens’ offense. He was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against the Browns. If the Ravens can protect him against the Texans, look for Flacco to have at least 225 yards and a touchdown. Flacco only is owned in about 40% of Fantasy leagues, so he is worth a waiver wire pick up for the stretch run.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. A couple of weeks ago the Seahawks traveled to Florida and played Tampa Bay. Tampa’s quarterback Jeff Garcia had the best Fantasy game of anyone that week. In Week 10, the Seahawks make the long trip across the country to visit play the Dolphins. Pennington has been consistently playing well, but this week he is even better. Pennington also should benefit, because the Dolphins’ receivers are improving each week.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs. Believe it or not the Chiefs’ offense is playing well right now. Charles will start at running back this week. Last week, he amassed over 100 yards rushing and receiving. Look for him to have between 20-25 touches this week. Charles has a great match up going against the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers’ defense is 29th in the NFL in Fantasy points allowed.

Ryan Grant, Packers. I know Grant has been a bust so far this year. He was a top 20 pick in most drafts, but he is not even averaging 5 Fantasy points per week. The Packers are even grumbling to the media that they gave him too much money. But this week against the Minnesota Vikings, Grant finally will have a break out game. I saw the Packers’ game last week and Grant looked like he was running hard and making quick cuts. Stay with him for one more week.

Lee Evans, Bills. Evans had his worst game of the year last week against the Jets. He definitely will bounce back against New England. The Patriots’ defense is getting better, but their secondary is still the weakest link. The Bills versus the Patriots is a huge game this week and Evans should be one of the stars of the game.

*Bonus Pick – Start any Carolina Panthers that you have on your roster against the Oakland Raiders. If you have both Carolina running backs on your team, I might even consider playing both of them. The Raiders already are making vacation plans.

Sit’em

Marc Bulger, Rams. The former Fantasy stalwart has been trending upward for the past three weeks, but Bulger goes on the road to play the New York Jets. Without much acclaim, the Jets’ defense has emerged as a force in the AFC. Defensive tackle Chris Jenkins and cornerback Darelle Revis are playing at a Pro Bowl level. New Coach Jim Haslett has made the Rams into a more competitive team, but the injury to Steven Jackson has hurt the Rams’ offense and has put more pressure on Bulger.

Eli Manning, Giants. These NFC rivalry games are always wars of attrition. The Eagles defense will blitz Manning all game long. The Giants should counter by running the football with their three-headed monster at running back. Look for a low scoring contest with Manning throwing for about 150 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Deuce McCallister, Saints. With Reggie Bush likely to miss the game with his knee injury, Deuce should have some opportunities against the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. However, the Falcons’ defense is underrated against the run. I have watched every game this year and the defense is able to shut down bigger, power running backs. It is the quick guys that have given them trouble. McCallister has only scored two touchdowns this season and he is not used to carrying a heavy workload. Look for the Falcons’ defense to shut down McCallister this week in a big Falcons’ win.

Matt Forte, Bears. You probably have to start Forte against the Titans, because he has been a solid Fantasy option this year. However, the odds are stacked against him. The Titans’ defense is great against the run. They hit hard and tackle very well. The Bears are starting Rex “Wrecks” Grossman at quarterback. The Titans will not be impressed. Look for the Titans to play man coverage on the wide receivers and stack about 8 players in the box to stop Forte and the Bears’ running attack.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles. Since the Eagles’ Week 7 bye, Jackson’s targets and opportunities have diminished. He still has big play capabilities, but wide receivers Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are starting to play like they were projected to in the preseason. These guys are seeing more passes form Donovan McNabb. Jackson should be ranked in the third tier of Fantasy receivers at this point in the season.

My Picks

@Browns -3 Broncos - Browns
Jaguars -6.5 @Lions - Lions
@Jets -8.5 Rams - Jets
Titans -3 @Bears - Bears
@Vikings -2.5 Packers - Vikings
@Dolphins -8 Seahawks - Dolphins
Ravens -1 @Texans - Texans
@Patriots -3.5 Bills - Bills
@Falcons -1 Saints - Saints
Panthers -9.5 @Raiders - Panthers
@Steelers -1 Colts - Steelers
@Chargers -14.5 Chiefs - Chiefs
@Eagles -3 Giants - Eagles
@Cardinals -9 Niners - Cardinals

State of the Fantasy Season. Fantasy football has changed over the past two seasons. Quarterbacks have taken over as the main Fantasy point scorers in most cases. Running backs are important, but the tendency to specialize at the running back position and to split carries has hurt their impact in Fantasy Football. Quarterbacks are great until you come to a week like this week. Fantasy owners are scrambling. QBs are hurt. QBs are getting benched. Brady Quinn is actually a solid Fantasy option. I mean Daunte Culpepper may start for the Lions this week! C’mon man.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 9

Start’em

Kurt Warner, Cardinals. In his return to St. Louis, Warner was 23-34 for 342 yards and two touchdowns. He is completing around 70% on the season. On Sunday, he averaged about 15 yards per completion. Warner has the hot hand. For a guy that was not drafted in most leagues, he is performing like a Fantasy MVP candidate.

Michael Turner, Falcons. Falcons are riding the Turner Train. He had 31 carries for 139 yards. Remarkably, this game played out exactly like I figured that it would. The Falcons jumped on the Raiders in the 1st quarter and used Turner to control the clock. He is hard to tackle with just one or two people. Amazingly, the Falcons held the Raiders to -2 total yards in the 1st half. No team has done that to another team since 1992!

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. Graham had a wild day for a running back. On a halfback pass play, he threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to TE Alex Smith. He also had 24 touches on offense for 91 combined rushing and receiving yards. He lost two fumbles for -2 points. One of the fumbles was in the 4th quarter at the 2-yard line that the Chiefs recovered for a touchback. With Warrick Dunn inactive and hurting, Graham will have lots of opportunities.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. I seriously underestimated the Ravens’ defense. They gave up some yards in the passing game, but Lewis could find no running room. Lewis has not scored many Fantasy points in the last few weeks. On Sunday, he had 19 carries for 49 yards and one reception for 13 yards. You might look at other options in your line up in place of Lewis.

Plaxico Burress, Giants. This team is proving a point to Plaxico that they can score without him. Manning found almost every other wide receiver for a touchdown against the Cowboys. Steve Smith, Amani Toomer, and Kevin Boss scored on short pass plays. Burress finished the game with 3 catches for 34 yards. Giants look like the best team in the NFL.

Sit’em

Matt Cassel, Patriots. This game had few touchdowns scored. The Patriots controlled the game with their offensive line and by running the football. Some strange time-outs called by Coach Belichick. Cassel completed 25-34 passes for 204 yards and one interception. He also scrambled for 20 yards and another Fantasy point. Cassel should have better numbers with his corps of players around him. Patriots have to find a way to get Moss open deep down the field.

Brad Johnson, Cowboys. The Cowboys are in serious danger of not making the playoffs this year. I knew it was not good when I saw on the game ticker during the Falcons’ game that Brooks Bollinger was in the game. Johnson finished the game 5-11 for 71 yards and two interceptions for a -2 Fantasy points. This outing was a predictably horrible performance for Johnson and the Cowboys.

Santana Moss, Redskins. Monday night was a tough night for Santana Moss. The Steelers defense was all over QB Jason Campbell, and Moss came into the game injured. You have to be 100% to make plays against the Steelers #1 defense. Moss finished the game with 2 catches for 14 yards.

Reggie Wayne, Colts. Wayne finished the game with 5 receptions for 65 yards, but he was able to add to his Fantasy point total by catching a 2-point conversion in the 2nd half. This game is the third below average game for Wayne. More than half of his catches came on the Colts second half scoring drive. For most of the game, Wayne was not a factor and he is not getting the number of targets that he normally does.

Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs. This game had to be frustrating for the Chiefs. They had a huge lead on the Buccaneers and lost in overtime. Gonzalez finished the game with 7 receptions for 62 yards for a grand total of 4 Fantasy points. The Chiefs’ offense is improving, but this was a below average day for Gonzalez.

Totals: 8-2 (Overall 52-30-5)

My Picks

Wins: Lions, Packers, Cardinals, Falcons, Patriots, Steelers
Losses: Bills, Texans, Jaguars, Browns, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Broncos
Total: 6-8 (Overall 67-58-5)

Fantasy Games. Tough week for me picking games against the spread, but I felt much better about my teams’ performances in Fantasy games. In both games, the teams scored over 60 points. I need the Steelers’ defense to come up big on Monday night to help me secure a win in my Atlanta league. I am losing by 8 points. In my other league, my opponent has the Redskins’ kicker and Antwaan Randle El. MNF has to be a low scoring game for me to win both my games this week. This week was a rare week where almost everything came together for me to win two Fantasy games. The Steelers’ defense came up big.

Make sure to go and vote tomorrow!

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 9

Byes: Saints, Chargers, Niners, Panthers

Start’em

Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Many Fantasy owners (including myself) benched Warner in last week’s game against the Carolina Panthers. Big mistake. That one decision cost me a Fantasy win in a very competitive league. For this week, Warner is the #1 quarterback play. He has a great match up with an improving Rams team, but the big advantage for him is that this game is indoors on the turf. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston should be running all over the field against the Rams.

Michael Turner, Falcons. One of the big question marks each week for the Falcons is whether or not they will be able to run the football. The news that rookie offensive tackle Sam Brady is out for an indefinite period of time is not good for Falcons’ fans. The road trip to the West Coast is another concern for Turner owners. However, the absolute terribleness of the Raiders’ defense outweighs any of these factors. The prediction is the Falcons jump out to an early lead, and Turner has about 30 carries for 125 yards.

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. The Bucanneers’ offense took a big step back last week against Dallas. They had trouble moving the football. I look for Coach Jon Gruden to try and establish the missing in action running game on the road against the Chiefs. With Warrick Dunn’s back still an issue, Graham should get plenty of opportunities to score points this week.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. Play Lewis against the vaunted Ravens’ run defense? Yes, this week the Ravens’ will give up over 100 yards to Lewis on the ground. Count on Lewis for a big game this week.

Plaxico Burress, Giants. Do not listen to the reports of Plaxico’s demise. Clearly, he has some off the field personal or family issues he needs to resolve, but this guy is a competitor. The bigger the game, the better Burress plays. The Steelers were able to hold the Giants to field goals in the red zone. This week Burress is halfway out of Coach Coughlin’s doghouse. Look for at least two Eli Manning to Burress fade routes into the end zone.

Sit’em

Matt Cassel, Patriots. The Colts are favored this week at home against the Patriots. Does Vegas know some inside information? Patriots look like the much stronger team especially on defense. The problem for Cassel owners is that on the road this year Cassel and the Patriots have been a totally different team.

Brad Johnson, Cowboys. If you own Tony Romo and picked up Brad Johnson to play while Romo is out, you need to admit the mistake before its too late. Against some other teams, starting Johnson this week might be an option. Starting him against the Giants is punishable by jail time. I almost feel badly for Johnson that he has to start the game in real life. The Giants pass rush is an overwhelming force. Back up Brooks Bollinger probably will see some action this Sunday.

Santana Moss, Redskins. Moss was incredible last week against the Lions. He made huge plays that helped propel Washington to a win. Even with the great statistics from that game, Moss owners know that he is up and down. Just check out his weekly Fantasy point totals. His match up this week against the Steelers’ defense is more evidence that this is a week to sit Moss.

Reggie Wayne, Colts. The Colts need Joseph Addai back and at full strength. He is supposed to play this week, but Reggie Wayne is the Colts’ only deep threat. Marvin Harrison is struggling and Anthony Gonzalez is a solid possession receiver, but he does not garner any extra attention from defensive coordinators. Other teams are free to double Wayne and take him out of the game. In this heated rivalry game, I am predicting a low scoring contest with a minimum of Fantasy points to go around.

Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs. Gonzalez is the second ranked TE in Fantasy football, so you almost have to play him this week. However, do not count on him to have a big game against the Bucanneers. Tampa Bay’s defense is strong in the middle of the field. Derrick Brooks and their safeties will be matching up with Gonzalez all day. Plus, the Bucs have the extra benefit of having prepared and played against the Cowboys’ Jason Witten last week. Their defensive schemes to stop the tight end should carry over.

My Picks

@Bills -5.5 Jets - Bills
Jaguars -7.5 @Bengals - Jaguars
@Browns -1.5 Ravens - Browns
@Vikings -4.5 Texans - Texans
@Bears -12.5 Lions - Lions
Buccaneers -9 @Chiefs - Buccaneers
Cardinals -3 @Rams - Cardinals
@Titans -5.5 Packers - Packers
@Broncos -3 Dolphins - Broncos
@Giants -9 Cowboys - Cowboys
Eagles -6.5 @Seahawks - Seahawks
Falcons -3 @Raiders - Falcons
@Colts -6 Patriots - Patriots
@Redskins -1.5 Steelers - Steelers

Monday, October 27, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 8

Start’em

Drew Brees, Saints. Is there anyone playing better than Brees right now? In the London game, he was 30-41 for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns. That is a 73% completion percentage. Even with key guys injured, he spreads the football around to other players. The three touchdowns were caught by Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and TE Mark Campbell.

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. Delhomme came into this game as the 18th ranked Fantasy quarterback. He is a solid Fantasy #2 option, but this week he played like a starter. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns. Delhomme has some good weapons and WR Steve Smith turned a short pass into a 65 yard touchdown play.

Frank Gore, Niners. The Niners are a mess. Coach Singletary kicked one of his own players off the field. I like that style. Once again, Gore was a solid play. He deserves more touches. He finished the game with 18 rushes for 94 yards and 7 receptions for 65 yards. You pretty much can pencil Gore in for his 10 Fantasy points every week.

Jericho Cotchery, Jets. It was a surprise to see the Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles played this week. Cotchery did not score a touchdown, but he came through for the Jets with a big game. He caught 9 of Brett Favre’s passes for 102 yards. The Jets’ offense still is unpredictable, but they are letting Favre throw a ton in their wins.

Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers. The Buccaneers looked great in prime time last week, but the Cowboys were able to control their offense in Week 8. The Buccaneers did not score a touchdown. Bryant had 7 receptions for only 46 yards. The short passing game is Jeff Garcia’s bread and butter, but Dallas was able to limit Bryant’s ability to run after making the catch. I would not give up on this passing combination.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ryan struggled a little, but finished the game with very good numbers. The two interceptions hurt his statistics and the Falcons chance to win. He ended up 23-44 for 277 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His 12 yards per completion shows he can get the football downfield. Both touchdowns were to Roddy White. Ryan made a great throw into a tight window on the 55 yard touchdown pass. Ryan is trending upward, and he is a great pick up right now if you need quarterback help.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants. This Giants versus Steelers game was very physical. Both defenses were flying all over the field and hitting people. The Steelers were able to keep Jacobs out of the end zone with a huge goal line stand. Jacobs finished the game with 53 total rushing and receiving yards.

Justin Fargas, Raiders. Fargas finished the game with 12 rushes for 24 yards. He earned a paltry one Fantasy point. Thankfully, I did not have to watch one play of this Raiders and Ravens game. The Raiders have quality players on offense, but I would hesitate to play any of them against a quality defensive team.

Vincent Jackson, Chargers. Jackson clearly is Philip Rivers’ favorite target in the red zone. He is a big target that can go up and catch fade routes and score across the middle. He had 4 catches for 60 yards and 1 touchdown. Jackson is a must start for Fantasy owners.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. Harrison has lost a step. There is not doubt about it. The Colts’ offense is not executing like they have for the past five years. Harrison has 1 catch for 12 yards. Several other times Manning tried to get him the football, but he was either not open or Manning made a bad throw.

Totals: 7-3 (Overall 44-28-5)

My Picks

Wins: Rams, Ravens, Miami, Eagles, Browns, Titans
Losses: Buccaneers, Jets, Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, Niners
Push: Lions, Panthers
Total: 6-6-2 (Overall 61-50-5)

Fantasy Games. This season has been a nightmare so far. Every time I need a player to come through for me, the guy has a bad game. Every time I need an opponent’s player to have a bad game, that player comes through with big Fantasy points. This season has been so unpredictable. Tonight is a microcosm of my season. The Titans’ kicker Rob Bironas is my kicker. I am behind in the game by 11 points. Bironas has made 20 straight field goals. He needs one more make to set the Titans’ team record and give me a tie with lots of time remaining in this game. Of course, Bironas goes out and pull hooks a 43 yard attempt. Oh, now the Titans are going for a 2 point conversion instead of letting Bironas kick the extra point. Bironas from 48 yards…yes! Jubilation!

Friday, October 24, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 8

Byes: Bears, Broncos, Packers, Vikings

Start’em

Drew Brees, Saints. Yes, Brees struggled for the first time all year last week against the Panthers, but do not take him out of your lineup. The Saints’ offense is hurting with Reggie Bush out, Jeremy Shockey at half speed, and Marques Colston still rounding into shape. Those injuries just mean that Brees is going to have to throw the football more! Also, Deuce McCallister should run the football better than Bush between the tackles. The threat of the inside running game will bring the Chargers’ safeties up closer to the line of scrimmage, and Brees can hit some long throws off play-action fakes.

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. The Panther are at home against the Cardinals who are coming off the bye week. Hopefully, during the bye week, the Cards came up with some schemes to stop teams from scoring at will against them. I doubt it. Delhomme should find receivers Smith and Muhammad open all over the field. This game is a high scoring affair with Delhomme putting up over 250 yards passing.

Frank Gore, Niners. Coach Mike Nolan is out, and Coach Mike Singletary is in as the Niners’ head coach. Can Singletary control O-Coordinator Mike Martz? Yes. Look for the Niners to try to run the football more with Singletary at the helm. Plus, they are playing the Seahawks at home. The Seahawks’ defense is undersized and simply not very good right now.

Jericho Cotchery, Jets. Cotchery has been up and down all season. Last week, the Raiders had the skill players in the secondary to match up with Cotchery and Coles on the outside. Cotchery is small and he is not great at beating press coverage and getting separation from defenders. Luckily, he will not have that problem this week against the Chiefs at home. The Chiefs were embarrassed last week against the run. Look for them to sell out to stop the run and for Favre to throw about 45 times on Sunday.

Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers. Sometimes, we forget that, just like we do against old bosses, NFL players hold grudges against other teams. Although it was under the Bill Parcells’ regime, Bryant’s terrible time as a Cowboy has to fire him up this week. Bryant is a big wide receiver and he looks like he is improving every week. Here is the scenario: Bryant’s anger plus Garcia’s feisty toughness multiplied by Dallas’ terrible secondary equals big Fantasy points.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. The Falcons are kind of my adopted team and Ryan looks like a great draft pick. He has a bright future, but this week will be a learning on-the-job situation. Playing the Eagles reminds me of the Tampa Bay game--on the road, on grass, against a blitz-happy defensive coordinator, with a Pro Bowl caliber secondary. Ryan is the man for the Falcons, just not this week.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants. What a difference a NFL year makes in Fantasy football. In the 2007 draft, Fantasy owners would have laughed if Jacobs was a high draft pick. This year he literally is running over defensive backs in every game. His highlight reel is going to be ridiculous. However, his match up this week is bad. The Steelers’ defense is hard to run against, but even harder to score touchdowns against on the ground.

Justin Fargas, Raiders. When someone just reads the names of the Raiders’ offensive players, you might think, “Hey that’s not a bad lineup.” The problems start when those guys have to perform on the field. Unless you are out of options, I would sit every Raider player this week against the Ravens.

Vincent Jackson, Chargers. This NFL goes to London game is hard to predict. The teams have been across the Atlantic Ocean all week doing press, practicing, and getting ready for the game. The normal routine is non-existent. Last year, the weather was awful. This is a great match up for Jackson, but only if the game were in America. Sit him this week.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. Harrison has lost a step. The knee injury and surgery from last year has slowed him down. In every game, you see at least one pass that in year’s past would have been a big play completion. I wonder if Harrison is able to work with Peyton Manning and run routes in pre-game like he used. Plus, the Titans’ secondary will blanket Harrison. This game might be an ugly loss for the Colts.

My Picks

@Eagles -9 Falcons - Eagles
@Panthers -4 Cardinals - Panthers
Chargers -3.5 @Saints - Chargers
@Jets -13.5 Chiefs - Jets
@Ravens -7 Raiders - Ravens
@Cowboys -2.5 Buccaneers - Buccaneers
Bills -1.5 @Dolphins - Miami
Redskins -8 @Lions - Lions
@Patriots -7.5 Rams - Rams
@Texans -9 Bengals - Bengals
@Jaguars -7 Browns - Browns
@Steelers -3 Giants - Steelers
@Niners -5 Seahawks - Niners
@Titans -3.5 Colts - Titans

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Romo Dilemma

*Named in honor of the Prisoner’s Dilemma (check Wikipedia or several other sources for more information) in game theory, the Romo dilemma is a situation for Fantasy owners when one of your options is to start your franchise quarterback even though he likely is not the starter for the real game—what we have here is a developing situation kind of dilemma.

All last week, I was glued to the Tony Romo story, because Romo is my starting quarterback for my team the Dark Knights. This team is struggling and I need Romo. Fantasy owners know what I mean when I say “need”—there is a desperation there. I picked up Brad Johnson on the waiver wire with the idea that the Cowboys’ have enough weapons for him to score some Fantasy points. After reports that Romo did not practice on Friday, I made the change and started Johnson. All day Saturday, I was uncomfortable (think Sarah Palin in newly bought threads from Sak’s 5th Avenue standing between Alec Baldwin and Lorne Michaels on SNL) and looking at other scenarios.

Here was the process. I figured I had three options: start Johnson; gamble and start Romo; or pick up a 3rd quarterback who was guaranteed to start and play most of the snaps. Find someone on the Fantasy football scrap heap that no one in a competitive league has picked up all year. No really winning options--it kind of reminded me of when I had Bryant Westbrook. He never practiced and from week to week I never knew if he was going to play or not.

The number one option was to start Johnson and just hope that he played well. He has T.O., Crayton, Barber, Miles Austin, Roy Williams, uh oh. Okay, maybe he does not have that many offensive weapons, but Barber and T.O. can take short receptions and turn them into touchdowns. Plus, I figured the Cowboys for a huge lead. They could run the football and set up safe play-action passes against a lackluster Rams’ defense.

Secondly, I could start Romo. If Johnson started off badly or Dallas was behind, Romo might come in and work only out of the shotgun. Throw on every down and complete a ton of passes--Cinderella story, Favrian toughness, Don’t mess with Texas, Tony the Tiger, Brady with Midwestern grit, etc. The Cowboys win 27-21 in a stunningly close game. Romo writes another story in his march towards greatness, blah, blah, blah. In my Fantasy league, I look like a genius and add to my somewhat modest but growing legend. On Saturday while watching Texas play Missouri, I made the switch back to Romo, even though the reports were that Johnson would start.

Starting a guy in a Fantasy game that is not even starting in the real game makes no sense to me. Doing that goes against my Fantasy 101 pamphlet. During breakfast on Sunday, I switched back to Brad Johnson. (My regular back up is Kurt Warner who I stole with a very late draft pick. I had to endure the, Why are you drafting him? Leinart’s the starter…trash talk from a room of ten self-proclaimed football experts. It would have been perfect to play Warner except the Cardinals happen to be on their bye week.) So, about 90 minutes before game time, I was firmly behind Brad Johnson.

My third option was to pick up another available starting quarterback and start them for a one week stop-gap measure. In my league, the available quarterbacks likely to start and maybe to produce were Kerry Collins, Gus Frerotte, and Jeff Garcia. Collins had the best match up going against the Chiefs’ sad defense. You knew they were going to win, but would they even need to throw the football. When I thought for minute and could not name a starting wide receiver, I marked Collins off the list. Frerotte was intriguing for two reasons. He has a solid running game with Adrian Peterson. The Bears defense is a tough match-up, but they would probably sell out to stop Peterson. Also, the week before I had watched Matt Ryan pass for over 300 yards against the Bears. I was hesitant because I figured this game to be low scoring (turns out that was way off base). Bears versus Vikings in Chicago, the windy city. Weather could be a factor. Natural grass. Urlacher, Jared Allen. To me, those factors added together to get a low scoring defensive struggle.

So, I turned to Jeff Garcia. Garcia with solid stats led Tampa to a big win the week before against Carolina. The Bucs were playing in prime time at home against the Seahawks who are not very good. I already had picked up Warrick Dunn to plug into another bye week hole in the roster. I thought there was a better chance to for this game to be a high scoring affair. So, I added Garcia and dropped Brad Johnson. Johnson dropped all the way from Fantasy starter to free agent. Garcia ended up having the best game of any quarterback and he led me to a much needed, desperate come from behind win. However, now I have a mini-quarterback controversy on my hands with Garcia, Romo, and Warner on the roster.

Quick Slants:

Think about the difference in the reputation and character of Kellen Winslow, Sr. and Kellen Winslow, Jr. Winslow, Jr. may have a legitimate complaint about the staph infections that seem to infect Browns’ players, but his reputation is so low that most people will not even listen to him. I am old enough to remember the elder Winslow’s performance in the Chargers versus Dolphins playoff game. I am starting to have a bad case of nostalgia during these down economic times.

I am trying to grow my hair out and get the John Parker Wilson hair style. Not sure my wife or my boss is too happy about it, but you have to be committed to something.

Rodney Harrison is not a Hall of Famer. He is consummate professional and an impact player, but he also is an admitted cheater. If he is on your team, you defend him to the maximum. Everyone forgets he was suspended by the NFL for buying HGH.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 7

Start’em

Brett Favre, Jets. Like many people, I saw the end of this game. Favre pulled one of his great escapes in his own end zone; then he found Chansi Stuckey for a 31 yard gain. Somehow, he got the Jets in field goal position for Jay Feely to tie the game. Incredible effort, but Favre’s numbers for the game were 21-38 for 197 yards and two interceptions. Clearly, despite the end of game heroics, this was not one of Favre’s best games and a loss for me.

Matt Schaub, Texans. Quietly, Schaub is emerging as a must start for Fantasy owners. Having Andre Johnson at wide receiver is a major factor in his production. Schaub was 26-31 for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns. His completion percentage was outstanding. Both touchdowns were to TE Owen Daniels. More importantly for Schaub, he did not throw an interception. Interceptions have killed his Fantasy points in other games this year.

Steven Jackson, Rams. I wish I could have watched this game. Jackson must have been awesome. He finished the game with 176 combined rushing and receiving yards with 3 touchdowns. On the highlight of his 56 yard rushing touchdown, he burst through the hole and barely was touched on the way to the end zone. Fantasy owners who have been burned by Jackson for a season and a half are smiling this week.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. Cleveland is too hard to figure out. The offense was crisp and fired on all cylinders against the Giants on MNF. Playing on the road in the NFL is very difficult, but the Browns looked like a totally different team. Lewis had a solid, if not great game, with 98 combined rushing and receiving yards for 6 Fantasy points.

Calvin Johnson, Lions. Johnson owners had to be worried for most of this game, but one big play turned this receiver’s whole day around. He only had 2 catches, but those grabs went for a career high 154 yards and 1 touchdown. He also caught a 2-point conversion. If QB Dan Orlovsky continues to improve, Johnson is really the only big play option in the Lions’ passing attack.

Sit’em

Jay Cutler, Broncos. Cutler banged his thumb and hand on a Patriots’ helmet on the very first play from scrimmage. He stayed in the game, but he definitely looks injured. Cutler finished the game with 168 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He just did not look like himself after the injury and after the Patriots started blowing the Broncos out of the stadium.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings. There must be something about the city of Chicago that appeals to AP. Last year, he played great at Soldier Field and this Sunday he was exceptional again. He had 22 carries for 121 yards (5.5 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns. His 54 yard rushing touchdown displayed the speed and power of 2007. He added one reception for 9 yards and finished with 20 total Fantasy points. Once again, proof to me that you have to start your high draft choices every week.

Julius Jones, Seahawks. How far have the Seahawks fallen this year without Matt Hasselbeck? Wow, they looked awful against a great Tampa Bay defense. Jones had 7 rushes for 42 yards. If you own Jones, you might want to consider dropping him after this week. Maurice Morris is back and it is hard to tell if the Seahawks will be able to move the football against anybody.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals. Even with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, the Bengals’ offense showed some life against the Steelers. They scored on their longest touchdown drive in two years. Houshmandzadeh finished the game with 8 catches for 58 yards and 3 total Fantasy points. Watching the game, it seems like Fitzpatrick looks more for Chad Johnson. If you have Houshmandzadeh, you have to be concerned until Carson Palmer returns.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings. I picked up Berrian on the waiver wire, and then I talked myself into not playing him this week. He torched me and the Bears for 6 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. Having a great game against the bears had to feel good for Berrian. If he is healthy, he is a must starter for the next few weeks.

Totals: 7-3 (Overall 38-25-5)

My Picks

Wins: Steelers, Titans, Bears, Packers, Patriots
Losses: Chargers, Saints, Dolphins, Cowboys, Niners, Texans, Redskins, Jets, Buccaneers
Total: 5-9 (Overall 55-44-3)

Fantasy Games. When Tony Romo hurt his pinkie last Sunday, I was not too worried. My back up is Kurt Warner and I just figured to plug him into the line up. Wrong. Warner and the Cardinals were on a bye week. Thus, the week passed by with me checking everyday on Romo and his playing status. I picked up Brad Johnson on waivers. Sunday morning I woke up with Johnson in the starting line up, but never felt comfortable about it. That gut feeling led to a long breakdown of who else to pick up and play. I ended up choosing Jeff Garcia, playing him, and winning a very close game.

Ties in Fantasy Football? Last week, we had a tie game in my Dallas league. The Giants defense was unable to score a point against the Cleveland Browns and that left two teams with a tie score. A couple of years ago our commissioner held a vote and our league decided to break ties by going to the decimal point. I am in favor of the idea, because I think it makes the playoff picture much clearer at the end of the year. I also play in an Atlanta league and in that league they allow ties. Two questions: Are you for ties in Fantasy regular season? And what do you think is the best way to break a tie game? Leave a comment.