Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Fantasy Projections (Part II)

After watching this past weekend's preseason games, here is a look at some fantasy players from the Tennessee Titans, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Pittsburgh Steelers:

The Tennessee Titans are boring to watch. It was hard not to channel surf during their offensive possessions. I had even forgotten that they made the playoffs last year at 10-6. So, they made the playoffs and fired Norm Chow as offensive coordinator. To be the O-Coordinator, the Titans hired Mike Heimerdinger. The question is will Heimerdinger make VY into better passer. Not this year. I like VY’s ability to scramble, make plays, and win games. In the last two years, the Titans have improved in the wins total, but as far as fantasy owners VY is a sell. He is good in real life, but not in fantasy.

I really am impressed with the Titans’ rookie running back Chris Johnson. This guy is fast and explosive. He is not going to explode onto the scene like Adrian Peterson, but he is going to be important to the Titans’ success this year. He is going to get a lot of touches both in the running game and the passing game. I mean Vince Young has to throw and he does not throw downfield very well. That means look for the underneath passing game. Getting Chris Johnson the football in space against a linebacker is going to be a great weapon for Tennessee this year.

In my Atlanta league, I drafted the Tennessee Titans defense as my starting defense. It was a late round pick, but watching the game last Friday night I think it might have been wasted. I have very little confidence in the Titans’ defense being a big factor for my team this year.

Maybe it was the Steelers’ defense. Maybe it was Gus Frerotte at quarterback. Maybe it is just another example of a guy not running that hard in the preseason, but Adrian Peterson did not look like a dominant fantasy player. AP looked kind of slow and lacked burst into the line of scrimmage. If I had Peterson, I would be worried. Fantasy top 3 draft picks have to produce points every week. Peterson looks like he has lost his explosiveness. Consider drafting Chester Taylor in the mid to late rounds as a stop gap in case Peterson gets injured.

The Vikings’ defense is a virtual lock to be a top 5 fantasy defense. I would consider taking them higher in the draft before there is a run on defenses. Whenever the Vikings play in the dome on the turf, the defense should put up lots of fantasy points. The addition of Jared Allen gives them another guy that creates turnovers and possible defensive touchdowns.

For Pittsburgh, Rashad Mendenhall runs like a guy that will score points in fantasy football. He will get opportunities in the Steeler offense, because Bruce Arians is going to run the football. Last year, the Steelers led the NFL in running back carries. Mendenhall is bigger than Willie Parker and should get opportunities near the goal line. The problem for Mendenhall is that he cannot fumble. Fumbling is the quickest way to get a seat on the bench. I think the Steelers should keep an eye on the Atlanta Falcons. If the Falcons cut running back Jason Snelling, he would be a great pick up at running back for the Steelers’ offensive system.

One position that always gives me trouble in fantasy drafts is the TE position. These players are becoming more impact players in Fantasy Football, but overall you can put most of these guys in a hat and just pick out a name. You do not want to waste an early pick on a tight end, but you do not want to get caught at the end of the draft with very limited options. The three starters for these teams show the diversity at the tight end position.

Heath Miller at tight end is another Steeler that is a solid fantasy pick. Miller and Roethlisberger have had a great connection from the very beginning of Miller’s career. As Hines Ward gets older this year and teams focus on Santonio Holmes in the red zone, look for Miller to be a bigger factor in the Steelers’ passing game. A player that is really flying under the radar for the Vikings is TE Visanthe Shiancoe. This guy went undrafted in one of my fantasy drafts. He looks and runs like a wide receiver. If the Vikings had a top quarterback, Shiancoe would have a chance to score 10 touchdowns. I mean, can you even name a Vikings’ wide receiver? He is a great TE option in the later rounds as a back up / possible starter. The Titans’ tight end is Alge Crumpler. Crumpler escaped a terrible situation last year in Atlanta. Recently, he has been slowed by injuries, but he looks to be in great shape. He will catch the ball in traffic and give VY a guy he can count on under pressure. If he is available, take Crumpler in round 16 and play him in match ups when the Titans play weak defensive teams.

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