Fantasy Owners--Avoid These 5 in 2008

I am in two Fantasy Football Leagues for the 2008 National Football League season. One league is based in Dallas, Texas and the other league is based in Atlanta, Georgia. I am a Dallas league veteran, while this is my first year in the Atlanta league. Usually, I do my draft in the comfort of my own home with a couple of cold beverages, but this year I participated in a war room type draft in Atlanta. A friend’s new home (yes, some people are still buying) was transformed by 8 guys with 6 laptops into draft central. A giant flat screen television played the Olympics and we got down to business. In the next few weeks, I will blog about my two drafts, my player analysis, and my strategies for this season in Fantasy Football.

Here are 5 veteran players with proven Fantasy success that you should avoid this year (I have included each player’s draft position from my Atlanta league draft):

Carson Palmer. According to the Average Draft Position, or ADP, from Fantasy Football Today or www.fftoday.com, Palmer is being taken as the 52nd pick. When I checked the site for this blog, the ADP was based on a composite of over 1,000 drafts in 12 team leagues. Palmer played very well last year and played in all 16 games. I think he is an injury risk this season. The Bengals’ running game is not that strong and the offensive line is a question mark due to injuries. Palmer’s receivers are exceptional, but look for teams to key on and try to stop T.J. Houshmanzedeh more this season. Look for the Bengals to be under .500 this year, and for Palmer to struggle. In 2007, Palmer ended the season as the 9th best quarterback and scored 19.5 fantasy points per game. In my Atlanta draft, Palmer was taken with the 41st pick.

Jay Cutler. Cutler’s ADP is the 101st pick. In 2007, I was amazed to see that Cutler finished the NFL season as the 12th best quarterback by scoring 17.6 pts per game. I had him last year and dropped him. He was very inconsistent. It turns out he had diabetes that was undiagnosed. He should be more consistent, but I do not like the skill players in Denver. Who is going to be the running back? Cutler is not a guy that can carry a team. He needs the running game to set up the play action passing game. Without a go-to running back, look for him to struggle in 2008. In my Atlanta draft, Cutler was taken with the 77th pick, so that is clearly a reach pick.

Justin Fargas. Last season, Fargas finished the season strongly as the 23rd best running back (one spot ahead of usual Fantasy high draft pick Reggie Bush-Kardashian) with 10.3 points per game. His ADP is the 104th pick. He comes into the season as the Oakland starter, but Darren McFadden and Michael Bush should each see plenty of carries. I agree with most fantasy owners in thinking that Fargas is going to get lost in the shuffle, and that McFadden will burst onto the NFL scene. In my Atlanta draft, Fargas was nearly forgotten and ended up as the 123rd pick.

Steve Smith (CAR). Smith’s training camp fight and suspension does not seem to be hurting him in most drafts. According to www.fftoday.com, his average draft position is the 38th pick. He is suspended for two games that will count in all fantasy leagues, so owners lose those points. He also has competition for catches in the red zone in the form of the reacquired Muhsin Muhammed. Smith’s reputation in Fantasy is still solid if you look at his high ADP this year. I think it is loyal owners that draft Smith every year no matter the circumstances. (There is guy like that in my Dallas league.) In 2007, he ended the season as the17th best wide receiver with 9.5 points per game. That ranking should drop this year. In my Atlanta draft, Smith was passed over several times and finally taken with the 50th pick.

Chad Johnson. I like Chad Johnson as a player and NFL personality, but he has not been the same player since the Bengals’ playoff loss to the Steelers in 2006. Whispers of a locker room fight with his head coach Marvin Lewis at halftime of that game have lingered and messed with his fragile psyche. There has been much sound and fury from Johnson this off season, but that might be nothing in 2008. His ankle still is not 100 percent, and now his shoulder is injured. I think he knows he is the 2nd best receiver on his team, and he wants to force his way out of Cincinnati. Still, he is a favorite of Fantasy owners and has been going near Steve Smith with the 39th pick of most drafts. Ocho Cinquo was the 6th best wide receiver in 2007 with 12 points per game. In my Atlanta draft, which was receiver and quarterback heavy in the early rounds, Ocho was taken with the 28th pick.