Fantasy Projections (Part I)

This weekend with luck and perseverance I watched parts of 3 pre-season NFL games. The Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons (crazy, but this game was blacked out in Atlanta and I was able to watch the replay. The broadcast hardly showed the crowd, but when they did the number of empty seats in the newly refurbished Georgia Dome was depressing. I blame Vince Young for being a much more boring version of Michael Vick), and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Minnesota Vikings, were all on CBS (man, I have to get this cable hooked up soon). Watching these games should not drastically change your player projections, but the information gained can be the difference in having a great, mediocre, or bad draft. Here are some players from these games to keep an eye on this week during your fantasy draft:

The Houston Texans’ running backs have above average fantasy value. Have never liked Chris Brown and he is hurt already, but the young guns are worth a look. I chuckled at a WVU guy in my Atlanta league who took Steve Slaton, but that was before I saw that Alex Gibbs is the new offensive line coach. Against the Cowboys, Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor ran hard and picked up yards. The Texans' offense is going to move the football and they are committed to the running game. Expect a 1,000 yard rushing season out of one of these two backs. Think Broncos redux. You just have to pick the right guy. Take Brown or Slaton and save Taylor for the waiver wire.

If I were an NFL coach in the real world, Matt Schaub would be high on my list of QBs to lead a team. In the fantasy world, Schaub is a borderline starter. He could put up big numbers, or he could be replaced by Sage Rosenfels in week 4.

Kevin Walter, a wide receiver for the Texans, is a sleeper, late round wide receiver. On Friday night, he scored a touchdown on a crossing pattern by making a tough catch and run. Opposite of Andre Johnson, Walter should be open a ton. Plus, Schaub looks for him when they need clutch 3rd down catches and yards. He is kind of like a poor man’s Wes Welker. Owen Daniels at tight end looks to be a solid choice for fantasy owners. In a 16 round draft, he should go around #100. He works the middle of the field and is a big target for Schaub near the goal line. Do not take under any circumstances take Jacoby Jones!

Every skill player on the Cowboys’ offense is fantasy gold. They are so deep. O-Coordinator Jason Garrett wants to lead the NFL in offense in 2008. The main guys--Romo, Owens, Barber, Witten--barring injury are very high fantasy picks. Patrick Crayton and Felix Jones, the running back from Arkansas, will have solid years and are good mid-to-late rounders. I would even consider taking Brad Johnson or TE Martellus Bennett off the waiver wire if something happens to Witten or Romo (he could get benched after Jessica Simpson and her dad mess with his head).

Living in Atlanta, I am worried about having to watch this team every week. However, against Tennessee on Friday, some players definitely stood out. I already am sold on Michael Turner. Jerious Norwood looks like a much improved player. His speed never has been a question, but he ran surprisingly hard in this game. More impressive was the fact that he got hammered on a tackle in the 1st half, and probably could have called it a night, but in the 2nd half he played well and broke big runs into the secondary. Also, Norwood will play a big role in catching the ball out of the backfield. Mike Mularkey, the new Atlanta OC, is not going to let Matt Ryan take deep drops and hold the football. Screens and short passes will be plentiful. Norwood can catch and Michael Turner cannot. Expect an increase in Norwood’s total touches and yards this year.

Mularkey has not gotten a lot of publicity yet, but I followed him closely when he coached with the Steelers (I am a Steelers fan). He creates great misdirection and specialty plays. For example, the play the Falcons scored on with about 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter was vintage Mularkey. The Falcons were on the 2 yard line and lined up in the shotgun with the rookie QB Matt Ryan. Ryan made a great play-action fake and found a wide open receiver, Harry Douglas, for a touchdown. Mularkey will be conservative, but he has wrinkles in his offensive play package that should help Atlanta score easier in the red zone this season. With Mularkey calling the plays, Falcons' QB "Matty Ice" is a possible bye week pick up or a late, late rounder if you have Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, or another durable starter.

Avoid at all costs the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. The Dallas Cowboys’ defense will be solid, but not spectacular or even above average. The Houston Texans’ defense is a top 10 fantasy defense. The defensive line alone should rack up sacks and force fumbles. One red flag for them is that they play in a tough division that is notorious for high scoring games.

*Part two of this post focuses on the Titans, Vikings, and Steelers.