2009 NFL Picks - Week 3

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 24 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

NEW ENGLAND 4 Atlanta - New England
MINNESOTA 6.5 San Francisco - San Francisco
NY Giants 6.5 TAMPA - NY Giants
Washington 6 DETROIT - Washington
NY JETS 3 Tennessee - Tennessee
PHILADELPHIA 8 Kansas City - Kansas City
Green Bay 6.5 ST. LOUIS - Green Bay
BALTIMORE 13 Cleveland - Cleveland
HOUSTON 3.5 Jacksonville - Houston
Chicago 1.5 SEATTLE - Seattle
New Orleans 6 BUFFALO - New Orleans
Denver 1.5 OAKLAND - Denver
SAN DIEGO 6 Miami - San Diego
Pittsburgh 4 CINCINNATI - Pittsburgh
ARIZONA 2.5 Indianapolis - Indianapolis
DALLAS 9 Carolina - Carolina

2009 NFL Picks Record: 16-16

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 2

Once again this week, I hovered right around .500 on my NFL picks with the spread, but the night games on Sunday and Monday put me over the top for the weekend. I picked the Giants and the Colts in those games to finish at 9-7.

In my Fantasy match-ups, I went 1-1, but with a silver lining. I scored big in the loss which could mean good things for the rest of the season. If the Chicago Bears and Jay Cutler do not start using running back Matt Forte, I am going to be in for a long season. My second highest scorer on this team is RB Mike Bell and I picked him up after the waiver wire last week. Forte was my highest draft pick and he has to play well.

All morning on Sunday, I messed with the idea of starting both Giants' running backs against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys were horrible against the run in Week 1 versus Tampa. I figured that it was too early in the season to start playing hunches; plus, if you give up a ton of yards rushing one week, the Cowboys' coaching staff probably focused on stopping the run all week against the Giants. Brandon Jacobs had below average game and Ahmad Bradshaw did not really do anything. Starting Mike Bell was my best call of the season so far.

On a positive note, T.O. scored a touchdown and could have had another long completion if he would not have dropped the pass from QB Trent Edwards. Even without probable starter Marshawn Lynch, the Bills' offense looks to be much improved. Owens should be able to have some big games this year.

In my Dallas league, my team scored its first victory of the season. However, it might have been less to do with my players than the fact that the Jets were able to contain Tom Brady who was going for the other owner. I picked up Cadillac Williams in this league and he had another solid performance for the Buccanneers. Another guy that I picked up is wide receiver Patrick Crayton. He gives me a solid back up wide receiver and this week I probably will not be making any roster moves. Hopefully, this week I can post my first line-up advice of the Fantasy season.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 2

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 17 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

ATLANTA 6 Carolina - Atlanta
Minnesota 9.5 DETROIT - Minnesota
GREEN BAY 9 Cincinnati - Green Bay
TENNESSEE 6.5 Houston - Houston
KANSAS CITY 3 Oakland - Kansas City
New England 3.5 NY JETS - New England
PHILADELPHIA Pick New Orleans - Philadelphia
WASHINGTOn 9.5 St. Louis - St. Louis
JACKSONVILLE 3 Arizona - Jacksonville
BUFFALO 5 Tampa Bay - Buffalo
Pittsburgh 3 CHICAGO - Pittsburgh
SAN DIEGO 3 Baltimore - Ravens
DENVER 3 Cleveland - Denver
DALLAS 2.5 NY Giants - NY Giants
SAN FRANCISCO 1.5 Seattle - Seattle
Indianapolis 3 MIAMI - Indianapolis

2009 NFL Picks Record: 7-9

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 1

The weekend could not have started worse for me with losses in the first 5 games of my NFL Week 1 picks. Luckily, I was able to bounce back on Sunday and I felt good going into last night's Monday night games. I picked both favorites and lost both games to finish Week 1 at 7-9.

My Fantasy teams were worse. I lost both my games this weekend. In my Dallas league, Vincent Jackson's touchdown late against the Raiders gave my opponent a 5 point victory in a close contest. I needed Randy Moss to score one of those last minute Patriot touchdowns. Clearly, Beanie Wells is not the answer at the number 2 running back slot.

In the Atlanta league, my team put up the least amount of points. I was counting on Aaron Rodgers to play big and he came up with one of the worst Fantasy totals of his career. Matt Forte was another major disappointment. If the Bears are not going to use Forte, they are in for a long season. Hopefully, Forte will get a lot more carries and receptions next week.

In real life and in fantasy football, you really cannot feel good when you are counting on wide receivers Terrell Owens and Anquan Boldin. I think Owens can bounce back, but the Bills have to at least give him some targets. I might have been equally as frustrated as Owens during last night's game.

Boldin is a whole other story. Boldin did not practice much last week and I checked the Cardinals' beat writers all week. Most said that he doubted he would play. Boldin even was quoted as saying that he did not want to play and risk missing more time by re-injuring his hamstring. I drafted the other Cardinals' receiver Steve Breaston as a handcuff for Boldin. So, on Sunday, I made the switch. Breaston at least had been practicing. Bad move. Boldin played and Breaston was inactive. Boldin did not play well and the Cardinals look like they might be a victim of the Super Bowl loser jinx.

Luckily, my team played so badly this week that I think I get the first pick in the waiver wire. If that is the case, I will be picking up Cadillac Williams. I might need a Lou Holtz pep talk even though it did not help the Ohio State Buckeyes this weekend.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 1

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 9 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right
*Home team is in capital letters.

PITTSBURGH 6 Tennessee - Pittsburgh
ATLANTA 4 Miami - Miami
BALTIMORE 13 Kansas City - Kansas City
Philadelphia 1 CAROLINA - Carolina
CINCINNATI 4 Denver - Cincinnati
Minnesota 4 CLEVELAND - Minnesota
HOUSTON 5 New York Jets - Houston
INDY 7 Jacksonville - Jacksonville
NEW ORLEANS 13 Detroit - New Orleans
Dallas 6 TAMPA BAY - Dallas
ARIZONA 6.5 San Francisco - San Francisco
NY GIANTS 6.5 Washington - NY Giants
SEATTLE 8.5 St. Louis - Seattle
GREEN BAY 3.5 Chicago - Green Bay
NEW ENGLAND 10.5 Buffalo - New England
San Diego 9.5 OAKLAND - San Diego

2009 NFL Picks: 0-0
2008 NFL Picks: 134-114-8
2008 NFL Playoff Picks: 8-3

Fantasy Football: Roster Analysis for My Dallas League

I play in two fantasy football leagues. My Dallas league has been in existence for six glorious seasons and there has not been much owner turnover. I always do an annual predicted order of finish with some roster analysis just for the love of Fantasy Football. The main goal is to fire some people up so they will make a bunch of transactions. Lots of transactions mean more money for the winning owner and I figure that pays for my Christmas gifts for 2009. Good luck and enjoy:

12. Walton’s House of Pizza – Showering and changing diapers during your Fantasy draft is usually a sign that you are just not into this league. This guy just has so much going for him right now—great family, sweet job, Kenyon Hall of Fame induction. Really, I did not even look at the roster and just made the team finish in last place out of spite and jealousy. I am not a believer in DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, or LenDale White. Fasano could score two touchdowns or have 1 catch on any given Sunday. This receiving corps worries me. The only bad part of this whole deal is I know that the owner is not going to make 10-15 transactions trying to get better. Playoffs? Say the word in your best Jim Mora impersonation.

11. DRock – Please take 10-15 seconds and upload a helmet logo for this great team name! You could go with the logo for the Greenhill Lady Hornets. I like the strategy of taking top tier wide receivers early on, and I would have taken Fitzgerald if you had not drafted him right before me, but after the first two rounds did you take a few OxyContin? Your quarterbacks are suspect and your running backs are hopes and dreams. Kind of like you’re your old roommate’s love life. Benson should have a good year, but he has never rushed for a 1,000 yards in his career. He is one alcohol binge and boat ride on the Ohio River from ruining your whole season. The great thing for the other owners in this league is that you are going to have to make about 23 transactions just to make it through the schedule. Playoff chance = none.

10. Rain City FC – Best helmet in this league by a wide margin, but how do you explain to school kids what happened in Brentwood that fatal night? I was waiting for this owner to draft Vince Young or Joe Gilliam in round 16, but that might have been over the top. Another year of McNabb as your starting QB? McNabb might be real life and fantasy football kryptonite. Very thin at running back and I absolutely hate your wide receiver corps except for Steve Smith. Eagles’ defense probably will not be the same either without the dearly departed Jim Johnson. Sorry, the owner’s smooth operator presence with the ladies of Seattle cannot get this team over the hump and into the playoffs. Is Seattle depressing?

9. Arrrrt – Very improved helmet team logo, but that name, ugh! I mean you are probably the most hip and happening guy at your high school, but who is the competition someone might ask. This team is by far the strongest you have ever had in this league. Rodgers, Barber, and starting wide receivers are studs. If A-Rodge stays healthy, he might lead the league in fantasy scoring. Solid running back depth. Tim Hightower might not produce a ton of yards, but he will get touches in the Red Zone. You have to be worried about your defense, back up wide receivers, and your kickers, but if you are relying on those guys as difference makers you would be in trouble anyway. This team is definitely a playoff contender.

8. Maurice Clarett Football Club – Remember when Clarett was leading OSU to a national title? Now, he is applying decals to road signs in the state penitentiary. I guess life can be worse. Nice pick of Jonathan Stewart in the late rounds. He seems to be getting healthier and will score some touchdowns. Brees is going to have a monster season. Solid duo of Tomlinson and Sproles, but running back looks like a weak spot if Tomlinson cannot carry the load and Philip Rivers refuses to pass him the football. A couple of former Ohio State wide receivers are great for leadership and locker room presence, but I might be worried about Santonio smoking joints in his car during the season. Brees makes you a contender for the playoffs, but if he gets hurt…

7. The Dawg Pound – Is this owner a Browns’ fan? I feel so badly for Browns’ fans that it is hard for me to right anything negative. Good thing because this roster is stacked with players. There are some big questions marks though: Does Steven Jackson care anymore? Is Tony Romo girl crazy again already? Will Brandon Marshall do anything this year or will he pout all year? Does Westbrook frustrate everyone by not practicing and then playing great on Sundays? Is Boldin happy or sad? Does Lee Evans wilt or flourish opposite Terrell Owens? Can Coach Rex Ryan duplicate his defensive touch with his new Jets’ defense? This team should be a playoff team, but I just came up with those questions in about 30 seconds. The answers might all be negative and that probably does not bode well.

6. Sherm-pups – The defending champion is the champ until someone knocks them off. Enjoy it young man. The Dude Abides. This roster is kind of like the Erin Andrews’ nude video for me. It looked better with its clothes on and when I undressed it the roster kind of fell short of my expectations. Warner had a magical season last year, but can he do it again? MJD is getting a ton of hype, but will he mail in games when Jacksonville starts losing? Jamal Lewis is old. Schaub is soft. Kellen Winslow is crazy—staph infection will do that to you. I like the Glen Coffee draft pick a ton, but will that win you many Fantasy games? Sherm-pups has the experience, coaching acumen, and downright orneriness to make a playoff run.

5. Laser Dick – Wearing two hats as an owner and commissioner is so difficult, so cut this guy some slack. I do wonder how Legally Blonde keeps getting the #1 pick year after year…must have incriminating photographs or something. Great picks at the end of the 1st round and beginning of the 2nd round. I also like Larry Johnson this year even though most people don’t. Who else do the Chiefs have? Oh yeah, you made a nice handcuff selection of Jamal Charles. Hated the Domenick Hixon pick, but you got great value from Chris Henry and Devery Henderson. Both those guys were on my “like” list. Having T.O. on any team is scary, but the women he dates on his reality TV show are very hot, so that balances things out. This team makes the playoffs.

4. Legally Blonde – This organization is like the Patriots. Very solid. Creative team name and cool helmet logo. Lost amidst the criticism of the selections at quarterback is that the owner had a superb draft. On the first play of the game Monday, Adrian Peterson took his first carry 75 yards the other night for a touchdown. Steelers’ defense is simply the best. Garrard was a top ten Fantasy QB in 2008. He is one of the few QBs likely to score rushing touchdowns. The two question marks have to be juggling the starting QB each week. All three are inconsistent and picking the right match up will be huge. Big Ben falsely accused without a doubt. Secondly, the back-ups are all young and unproven. They have big upside, but will they come through when Peterson misses three games with injuries? Peterson alone should get you to the playoffs.

3. Exxon Valdez – With a team name commemorating one of the worst oil tanker disasters in history, you might think this football club would sink after last season. Not so fast my friend. The Exxon roster is probably the deepest in the league. Brady is back. I like Matt Forte a ton. He might score about 20 TDs this year. Late round picks yielded a ton of value at the receiver positions. I was hoping to get Lance Moore at some point. Plus, I think Derrick Ward is going to have over 1,000 yards this year for Tampa Bay. Greg Jennings is vastly underrated in Fantasy. If this team does not make the playoffs, you cannot blame the GM. Blame the coach.

2. MK in Buckhead – Please come up with a new team name to match your sweet helmet. Here are some choices—Lebanese Lovers, Beirut Boys, Real Estate Warriors. All that you need to know about the unpredictable nature of Fantasy Football is that MK was the runner-up in last season. Looking at this roster, there is no doubt in my mind that MK is taking HGH or that he hired a Fantasy Football draft consultant. His Brandon Jacobs pick from two years ago would have been great this season. Wow, this is an explosive looking team. I like Matt Ryan, Ocho, Andre, Owen Daniels, Leon Washington, Anthony Gonzalez, Shiancoe (very large if you know what I mean), Percy Harvin, and Michael Bush. This roster is stacked. What could possibly go wrong? Possibly, a title contender.

1. Super Steelers – It is hard for me to be objective here, but this helmet is unmatched in professional sports. I have never like Peyton Manning, but this year the Colts’ signal caller is flying so far under the radar that I expect him to have a monster season. The Colts are going to have trouble scoring rushing TDs which should make Manning’s value even higher. Some might question the running backs on this team, but Brandon Jacobs is staring at a 15 touchdown season. Do not forget that last year after 10 games the Giants were the highest scoring team in the NFL. Jacobs should pick up some yards from the departed Derrick Ward as well. I hate the Ravens, but these guys always score defensive TDs. The whole key to this team might be whether or not Chris “Beanie” Wells shows up this year. I am pretty confident. Look for this team in the Kellen Winslow Friendship League Championship Game.

Living In a Fantasy World: 5 Quick Draft Tips

Fantasy drafts are similar to the old saying about the Thursday of a Major golf tournament. You cannot win your Fantasy League on draft night, but you might draft so badly that you are never a factor in your Fantasy League. Players are going to get injured or benched and you are going to have to make trades or waiver wire pick ups in order to make the playoffs and win your league. However, a draft with value players sets you up for a great start to the season.

For reference, I play in a couple of different 12 team leagues with a 16 round draft. We do not use flex players or Individual Defensive Players, so those are not covered in this article. Here are five quick draft tips that I use in my Fantasy Draft preparation.

1. Check out the Average Draft Positions for your main player targets. If you are like me, you do not have time to research all kinds of statistics before your draft. I usually spend about two or three hours actually making draft lists. ADP, Average Draft Position, is the best indicator of where players are going all over the country. You see the value that many other people are putting on each player.

In 2008 Fantasy drafts, Kurt Warner probably was not drafted in many leagues, but you might have had a gut feeling he was going to start for the Arizona Cardinals. It would have been a bad pick to draft Warner high, but if you knew you wanted him in round 14 as your backup quarterback, you could wait and fill out your roster with better players at the other positions. ADP is available on nearly all quality Fantasy Football web sites. If you only look at a couple statistics (touchdowns scored last year, total yards, etc.), ADP definitely needs to be one of them.

2. Make your own player Sleeper list with a concentration on some rookies. Everyone knows the best players, but you have to separate yourself by getting value in the later rounds. I make myself a list of 20 players that I know will be available in the later rounds. Every year there are rookies that make a big impact on Fantasy Football. Last year, Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans was a major contributor. Matt Forte, the Chicago Bears’ running back, was a Sleeper pick that helped someone win their league. One guy I really like this year is Jeremy Macklin of the Philadelphia Eagles. On offense, the Eagles spread the football around to all of their skill players, so Macklin is going to get some touches in the Red Zone.

3. Do a mock draft by positions like RB, QB, or TE. You really cannot do a mock draft by player, because of the unpredictability of other people in your Fantasy league. Someone may take a kicker in the first round! I saw that happen once. Plus, time is a factor. Very few people have the time to do an entire mock draft for Fantasy Football, but you quickly can do a round by round player position draft. This gives you a simple draft strategy to follow.

You should think unconventionally with your position order. Running backs are very important, but quarterbacks have led my leagues in scoring the past few seasons. If you have a middle pick in the first round, I definitely consider taking Tom Brady or Drew Brees. If you have bookend picks at the end of the first and beginning of the second round, you might take the best two running backs available or throw in one of the best wide receivers. Getting your top four draft selections correct is vital to having a winning Fantasy team.

For example, figure out in which round you want to take a QB, RB, or Wide Receiver. You may think that the wide receiver position is deeper than running back. If so, you might want to draft four running backs in the first six rounds of the draft. Make a list for all twelve rounds and try to stick to it. In later rounds, you can have RB/WR. Save your kicker for last, but I like to draft my starting defense in an earlier round, because I just take one defense. I know they are going to play each week. No chance of injury! This will help you focus and fill out your roster with quality players at ever position.

4. Know the Vultures and Handcuffs of your starting running backs. Handcuffs are back up running backs that can step right in for an NFL team, start, and produce Fantasy points. Vultures are other running backs on the same team as your starter that steal touchdowns away from your player. Running backs with known Vultures might lose some of their Fantasy impact.

The Carolina Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart is a big time Vulture. The Titans Lendale White is a touchdown Vulture. Teams that go with a bigger goal line running back are dangerous to your starter. Michael Bush of the Oakland Raiders is sure to steal some TDs from Darren McFadden. You might remember Jerome Bettis as the ultimate touchdown stealer for the Steelers a few seasons ago.

If you have the first pick and draft Adrian Peterson, you should look to draft Chester Taylor as Peterson’s handcuff in a later round. Peterson is going to miss a few games with injury. Another running back whose back up will earn a bunch of touches is the Colts’ Joseph Addai. If you draft Addai and are expecting to start him every Sunday, you need to know who is back up is. You might have to take the handcuff running back earlier than you want to but it will be worth it.

5. Pay attention to the Offensive Coordinators and their reputations. Everyone knows that the Saints are going to throw a bunch and score a ton of points. For that reason, the Saints’ skill players have more value than say the Chicago Bears with Ron Turner calling the plays. The Bears’ conservative offense makes Jay Cutler’s Fantasy value much lower this year.

Another example is New England. The Patriots have a new O-Coordinator this year. Will the Patriots throw for touchdowns in the Red Zone like the past few years or will they run the ball more for touchdowns? Their offense should be more potent with QB Tom Brady back, but there is some doubt there. Some teams whose players are more valuable based on their coaching philosophy are the Saints, Patriots, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles, Cowboys, and believe it or not the Kansas City Chiefs.