Friday, November 28, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 13

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Trent Edwards, Bills. Early in the year, Edwards was being mentioned as the next great NFL quarterback. Now, after a couple of bad games and a concussion against the Cardinals, people have forgotten how good he can be. The Bills exploded for over 50 points last week and I expect them to have another huge game at home against the Niners.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. It is hard to believe that the Raiders are favored to win this game. The Chiefs have been throwing the football more in the past few weeks, but the strength of the Raiders defense is in their secondary. LJ still has some life in his legs. The Chiefs throw the football enough this week to open up running lanes for Johnson. This game looks like an upset win for the Chiefs.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Without much fan fare, the Texans’ offense has been putting up points every week. Slaton has been their best running back all year, and his opportunities should increase even more with the Ahman Green injury. Slaton now should get any short yardage goal line carries. He is also one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL at catching the ball out of the backfield.

Ricky Williams, Dolphins. Any player on the Dolphins’ offense is a great start this week. The Rams have not been able to stop any opponents in the last few weeks. Williams’ had an amazing, diving touchdown catch last week. With Ronnie Brown’s injury history, look for Williams to have the bulk of the carries in the 2nd half of this game.

Antonio Gates, Chargers. The Chargers are a desperate team. They have had a bunch of close losses which include one of the worst officiating blunders in recent memory. At home, this team still is tough to beat. Gates is one of these players that play the best when his team needs him to come up big. The prediction here is a 100 yard game for Gates and at least one touchdown.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. In 2008, rookies have played important roles for a number of teams. The NFL Rookie of the Year is going to be a close vote. Ryan should be near the top of that list. He has provided a steadying influence for the Falcons’ offense. He is due to have a rocky road start. With recently promoted Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera, the Chargers have been blitzing more. Look for a tough late afternoon game for Ryan.

Joe Flacco, Ravens. The conventional wisdom would say to start Flacco this week against the Bengals. This week is the one where these rookie quarterbacks are going to hit a wall physically. The NFL season is a brutal grind and these guys are just not used to the length of the season. In their last home game against Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, the Bengals gave up just 13 total points with 3 interceptions, a fumble recovery, and 2 sacks. This game sets up as a low scoring contest.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Grant is facing a group of wounded cats this week. The Panthers defense has been tough all year and has not given up many Fantasy points, but the Falcons embarrassed them last week. Running back Michael Turner had a huge game. But, I think that was an aberration. Against the Packers this week, the Panthers’ dominant defense returns. Do not start Ryan Grant this week.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos. In his last seven games, Marshall has only score one touchdown. His production has really fallen off as the Broncos’ have been decimated at the running back position. Teams can key on Marshall because they do not have to worry about any running game. Marshall owners also have to realize how tough the Jets have been against their opponent’s top receiver.

Lance Moore, Saints. Moore has been steadily climbing up the wide receiver rankings. He is now a top 10 Fantasy receiver, but this week he runs into an underrated Buccaneers’ defense. Moore’s rise has coincided with a week schedule for the Saints. When these teams played in Week 1, Moore had 2 catches for 17 yards. My take is that the Buccaneers control the clock, pressure QB Drew Brees, and take away Moore’s yards after the catch. If you have any other options, give Moore a one week rest.

My Picks

Titans -10.5 @Lions - Lions
@Cowboys -13 Seahawks - Cowboys
@Eagles -3 Cardinals - Eagles
@Bills -6 Niners - Bills
Ravens -7 @Bengals - Bengals
Colts -5 @Browns - Browns
@Packers -3 Panthers - Panthers
@Jets -8 Broncos - Jets
Dolphins -8.5 @Rams - Dolphins
@Buccaneers -3.5 Saints - Buccaneers
Giants -3.5@Redskins - Giants
@Chargers -5 Falcons - Chargers
@Patriots -1 Steelers - Steelers
@Raiders -3 Chiefs - Chiefs
@Vikings -3 Bears - Vikings
@Texans -3 Jaguars - Texans

Monday, November 24, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 12

Start’em

Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers. The Lions jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but Garcia was able to help bring the Bucs back. An interception return and a punt return for a touchdown helped out the cause. Garcia was 13-18 for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. He finished the game with 13 Fantasy points which is double his average and a solid game for Garcia owners.

Eli Manning, Giants. Brandon Jacobs ended up inactive for the game and Plaxico Burress injured his hamstring during the game. Manning had to throw especially in the red zone. He came up big for the Giants with 26 completions for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. Manning ended up scoring 20 Fantasy points for the game.

Matt Forte, Bears. Once again Forte proved to be the Bears’ best offensive player against the Rams. Forte had 20 carries for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was not much of a factor in the passing game with only 2 catches for 14 yards. He did have a fumble for a negative point. Forte had a great 47 yard touchdown run.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers. Tomlinson has been a consensus top 3 pick in the last four or five years in Fantasy football. This season he has really fallen off and has dropped to the 15th best running back. The problem is that he is not scoring touchdowns this season. Last night was a typical game—he had 21 carries for 84 yards and 3 catches for 30 yards. That is 7 Fantasy points. An okay game, but Tomlinson owners expect more. I am calling this a loss.

Roddy White, Falcons. In a huge win for the Falcons, White was not a huge factor. He finished the game with 70 combined rushing and receiving yards and a fumble. White has been having a great season so far, and he will bounce back in the next few games.

Sit’em

Jason Campbell, Redskins. The Redskins needed a win against the Seahawks and they were able to come through in the end. Campbell did a great job managing the game. He finished 20-33 for 206 yards and 1 touchdown. He also chipped in on the ground with 6 rushes for 32 yards. Campbell’s 12 Fantasy points is an above average game for him. Call this one a loss for me.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. Some people were picking the Jaguars to go to the Super Bowl, but at this point, they will be lucky to win 5 games. MJD did nothing on the ground Sunday, but he was effective in the passing game. He had 3 rushes for 4 yards and 9 catches for 113 yards. His 7 total Fantasy points is way under his weekly average.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. In the first meeting in September, Brown had 36 Fantasy points—this Sunday he had 3 Fantasy points. The Patriots traveled down to Miami and took care of the Dolphins. Brown had 47 combined rushing and receiving yards. For some reason, the Dolphins put up a bunch of points, but Brown was not involved in any of the scoring plays.

Brian Westbrook, Eagles. During the week, Westbrook had sore ribs and some other ailments, but he ended up playing in the game. He probably should not have played. He had 14 carries for 39 yards and 2 catches for -5 yards for 2 Fantasy points. The Ravens’ defense bounced back in a big way after the debacle last week against the Giants. In a huge rout, the Ravens’ defense almost scored 30 Fantasy points.

Justin Gage, Titans. Gage was one of the hottest names on the waiver wire this week. He was the number one pick up on many Fantasy sites. This week he ran up against one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Darelle Revis of the Jets. Gage ended the game with only 1 catch for 37 yards. He is just another inconsistent wide receiver.

Totals: 8-2 (Overall 70-42-5)

My Picks

Win: Steelers, Texans, Bears, Jets, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, Giants, Seahawks, Raiders, Saints
Loss: Chiefs, Dolphins, Panthers, Chargers
Total: 12-4 (Overall 92-79-5)

Fantasy Games. I needed a 2-0 week in the worst way. I am on the outside of the playoff picture in both of my Fantasy leagues. Okay, after Sunday, I have already lost one of the games and I am pretty much out of the playoff picture in my Atlanta league. In my Dallas league game this week, I am ahead going into tonight’s Saints game. I have Ryan Grant going, but my opponent has Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas. Needless to say, I will be watching this game and cheering for Grant the Packers.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 12

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers. Real life often imitates Fantasy football. In Garcia’s case, he does not rank very high on the list of NFL quarterbacks, but he should. He has scored big against a couple of the best defenses in the league. This week the Buccaneers play the Lions—a great match up for Garcia. You also should start Garcia, because the game is indoors and the Bucs are missing starting running back Earnest Graham. Warrick Dun will start and he gives Garcia another weapon in the passing game. Look for over 300 yards from Garcia on Sunday.

Eli Manning, Giants. If I am a part of the Giants’ organization, the game this Sunday with Arizona scares me. The travel, the crowd noise, and the Cardinals’ offense are against the Giants. Starting running back Brandon Jacobs might not play. The great thing for Eli Manning owners is that this game will be a high scoring affair. The prediction is another 35 plus point game for the Giants with Eli throwing for at least 2 touchdowns.

Matt Forte, Bears. Surprisingly, as a rookie running back, Forte has been the most consistent offensive player for the Bears. He probably is the team’s MVP for the 2008 season. He can hurt a defense in the passing game as well. The Rams defense has been terrible. In the last two games, they have been down by over 30 points at half time. Forte is going to have a monster Fantasy game; my only concern is that he might only play three quarters of the game.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers. San Diego has been very good at home this year. They might go 8-8 and win all their home games and lose all of their road games. LT has not had his normal statistical year, but it was about this time last year that San Diego made a run and that Tomlinson started dominating games. Plus, the Colts’ defense looks to be without the highly regarded run stopping safety Bob Sanders. Start LT and look for over 100 yards in total offense.

Roddy White, Falcons. The Falcons best wide receiver is having a great year. He is definitely a Pro Bowl selection and maybe an All Pro if he finishes the season with a flurry. However, fans are complaining about his dropped touchdown pass against Denver. By accepting the blame in interviews after the game, White probably earned more respect with coaches and teammates. Look for him to get a ton of targets this week and to redeem himself with a huge game in the Falcons biggest game in a long time.

Sit’em

Jason Campbell, Redskins. In the last two games, Campbell has faced tough defenses, but I am not sure that is why he is playing poorly. On offense, a few of the key Redskins’ players are injured and not playing that well. Portis and Santana Moss are hurting and they were guys making the big plays for Campbell earlier in the season. With a still hostile Seahawks’ home crowd and unpredictable weather against him, sit Campbell this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. I know MJD has scored nine touchdowns in the past six games, but this match up against the Vikings’ defense is going to slow him down. Yards in the running game are going to be hard to come by for the Jaguars. Also, this time of year is usually when Fred Taylor starts running well. The Jaguars are basically out of playoff contention and the Vikings are a desperate team playing with a chance to still win the division.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. The best overall Fantasy game of the year was Brown’s performance in the first Dolphins versus Patriots game--the rebirth of the Wildcat Formation in NFL circles. Brown ran, passed, and handed off in a big win for the Dolphins. New England and Coach Belichick have had a three extra days to prepare for the Dolphins. That is a bad situation and match up for Brown this weekend.

Brian Westbrook, Eagles. The Ravens were embarrassed last week by the Giants’ running attack. Usually, I think that the pride factor for NFL players is over stated, but not in the case of the Ravens. Both defenses should dominate the offenses in this game. Plus, Westbrook with his sore ribs is always one big hit away from being out of the game. If you have viable options at running back this week, consider sitting Westbrook.

Justin Gage, Titans. Quarterback Kerry Collins has found a favorite wide receiver in the Titans’ passing attack. Gage has been hot for the past two weeks, but this Sunday he runs into a Jets’ defensive secondary that is playing at a high level. Yes, they gave up 400 passing yards to Matt Cassel last week, but Gage is not Randy Moss or Wes Welker for that matter. Cornerback Darelle Revis for the Jets should blanket Gage for most of the day.

My Picks

@Steelers -10.5 Bengals - Steelers
@Ravens -1.5 Eagles - Ravens
Buccaneers -8.5 @Lions - Buccaneers
@Browns -3 Texans - Texans
@Jaguars -2 Vikings - Vikings
Bills -3 @Chiefs - Chiefs
Bears -8.5 @Rams - Bears
@Dolphins -2 Patriots - Dolphins
@Titans -4.5 Jets - Jets
@Cowboys -10 Niners - Cowboys
@Broncos -9.5 Raiders - Raiders
Redskins -3.5 @Seahawks - Seahawks
Giants -3 @Cardinals - Giants
@Falcons -1 Panthers - Panthers
@Chargers -2.5 Colts - Chargers
@Saints -2.5 Packers - Saints

Monday, November 17, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 11

Start’em

Jay Cutler, Broncos. The Broncos corps of no name running backs actually played well against the Falcons. The running game accounted for a couple of touchdowns. Cutler played a solid game. He made several big throws to lead the Broncos to a victory. Culter finished the game 19-27 for 216 yards and one touchdown—a 9 yard touchdown pass to TE Daniel Graham.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. The MNF game was a wild game. The Bills turned the football over all night long, but somehow were able to score some points. Lynch was okay in the running game, but he was great in the Bills’ short passing game. As far as yards go, this was one of his best games. Lynch finished the game with 23 carries for 119 yards, and he had 10 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Joseph Addai, Colts. Addai has been struggling. He entered the game as the 42nd ranked running back in Fantasy football. Addai has his opportunities and he delivered big time. He had 22 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown. In the passing game, Addai caught 4 passes for 48 yards and a touchdown. He might have had the best game of the weekend of any running back.

Chris Johnson, Titans. Johnson was an important part of the Titans winning and improving to 10-0, but he had a below average Fantasy game. He had 17 rushes for 64 yards and 4 catches for 24 yards. His 5 Fantasy points were half his normal per game average. This pick was a loss.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. Owens finished the game with 5 catches for 38 yards. Tony Romo’s return did not really mean more opportunities for Owens. For some reason, Owens cannot break big plays or get behind the defense. Owens has not a 100 yard receiving game for over a year, but it is very hard not to play him if he is on your Fantasy roster.

Sit’em

Kerry Collins, Titans. The situation at halftime looked bleak for the Titans. The Jaguars were up 14-3 and looked like they were in complete control. Collins led the Titans to a huge comeback. He only completed 13-23 for 230 yards, but he threw 3 touchdown passes. Collins finished with 17 total fantasy points. He hit Justin Gage with two long passes of 56 and 38 yards for touchdowns.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. Frerotte finished the game 14-20 for 138 yards and a touchdown. He had a 4 yard touchdown pass to Bobby Wade. The Tampa defense shut down Adrian Peterson on the ground and Gus Frerotte in the passing attack. Tampa Bay’s defense needs to get some more press as one of the toughest in the NFL.

Reggie Bush, Saints. After pretty much guaranteeing that he would play, Bush was ruled out Friday for the Saints game against the Chiefs. Luckily, I already had written this column which said not to play Bush because he does not play hurt. For that reason, I am counting this as a win.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. The bad weather conditions did not stop Roethlisberger from throwing for over 300 yards, but most of those yards went to Hines Ward. Holmes only had 5 catches for 63 yards. He is due for a big game at some point, isn’t he?

Braylon Edwards, Browns. Edwards finshed the game with 8 catches for 104 yards. Those stats only add up to 6 Fantasy points, but that total is better than Edwards’ per game average. Edwards had about 4 other drops, but still chalk this up as a loss for me.

Totals: 6-4 (Overall 62-40-5)

My Picks

Wins: Jets, Packers, Broncos, Texans, Buccaneers, Bengals, Lions, Cardinals, Niners, Cowboys
Losses: Dolphins, Ravens, Chiefs, Jaguars, Steelers, Bills
Total: 10-6 (Overall 80-75-5)

Fantasy Games. Very few games have gone my way this year in Fantasy football and this week appeared to be more of the same. I had some commitments on Sunday, but when I finally logged on to check my Fantasy game score, I was behind in my Atlanta league 58-1. That was not a good feeling. My team came back, but I was one of the unlucky souls that own the Steelers’ defense. The defense had a very good game, but if the disputed Polamalu touchdown would have counted it would have been a great game. I need those points, because now I am behind in my game by 7 points with Rian Lindell playing in the game tonight. Go Lindell! Okay, I do not want to get too happy here, but Lindell just kicked an extra point in the 4th quarter to put me ahead. Oh, I feel bad for Lindell he just missed a game winning 47 yard kick!

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 11

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Jay Cutler, Denver. The Broncos went out and signed Tatum Bell this week. That fact alone tells you the state of the Broncos’ running game--terrible. The Falcons’ defense is very tough against the run. Relying on Cutler to have a monster game is the only way that the Broncos can win this game. Look for over 40 passing attempts from Cutler. He is primed for another 400 yard passing day.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. The past two weeks Lynch’s struggles have mirrored the Bills’ fall from grace. Analysts were calling QB Trent Edwards an MVP candidate. The Bills have forgotten that running the football is their strength. Lynch and the Bills get back on track this week on Monday Night Football against the Browns. Look for Lynch to rush for over 100 yards and score two touchdowns in a prime time performance.

Joseph Addai, Colts. Addai has been struggling, but he has a great match up this weekend against the Texans. The Texans are 27th in the league in Fantasy points allowed. This game should be a high scoring shoot out with both teams scoring over 30 points. In each of the last two games, Addai has had double figure carries, but he has not produced. This week he gets the opportunities, and he delivers for Peyton Manning and Coach Tony Dungy.

Chris Johnson, Titans. Surprisingly, the Jaguars defense is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing defense. In Fantasy, the Jags give up an average of 14 Fantasy points to opposing running backs—18th in the NFL. The Bears showed everyone in the league that you can stop the Titans’ running attack by stacking the box, but the Titans still won the game. Johnson had a terrible game versus the Bears, but he will bounce back in this road game.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. Everyone is writing the Cowboys’ obituary for the 2008 season, but I think this team is going to make a run. The bright lights of the nationally televised Sunday night game on NBC will bring out either the best or the worst in Owens. I think he comes up with his best game of the season. With QB Tony Romo returning from his pinky injury, Owens will finally break the 100 yard mark and score two touchdowns.

Sit’em

Kerry Collins, Titans. Do not get me wrong Collins is leading the Titans to wins, but I am not a believer in his Fantasy value. The Titans’ receivers just are not that impressive. He has developed a rapport with TE Bo Scaife, but no one on the outside scares any defensive coordinator. The Titans should be able to run the football against the Jags this week which will limit Collins’ throwing opportunities.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. NFL Week 11 is bench the old veteran quarterback week. Tampa Bay’s defense is quietly one of the league’s best. They give up just under 10 Fantasy points per game to the opposing team’s quarterback. Frerotte will not be any better this Sunday. With the bye weeks over, Frerotte’s value as a spot starter is history.

Reggie Bush, Saints. On one of my Fantasy team, Bush was my leading point scorer until the injury, but I never felt comfortable that he was going to deliver consistently week in and week out--too much Hollywood influence. If you have other options at running back, give Bush a week to prove he is back from his injury. His is fast and elusive and that ability is based on his legs. I am taking my own advice this week and keeping Bush on the bench.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. What is going on with the Steelers? The tough schedule is catching up with this team. The quarterback situation is in such disarray that you should sit Holmes this week. Coach Mike Tomlin should start Byron Leftwich and give Big Ben a chance to rest. The problem for Holmes is that he gets opportunities down the field and outside the numbers. With his injuries, Roethlisberger’s arm is not strong enough to make those throws.

Braylon Edwards, Browns. This season has been disappointing for Edwards. He has been inconsistent and he barely is averaging 5 Fantasy points per game. His situation is similar to Santonio Holmes’ predicament in Pittsburgh. The Browns’ new quarterback Brady Quinn will not throw deep down the field. Quinn is more likely to look for his running backs and tight ends. Play TE Kellen Winslow, but sit Edwards this week.

My Picks

@Patriots -3 Jets – Jets
@Giants -6.5 Ravens - Ravens
@Green Bay -3.5 Bears – Green Bay
@Falcons -6 Broncos - Broncos
@Panthers -14 Lions - Lions
@Colts -8 Texans - Texans
@Buccaneers -3.5 Vikings - Buccaneers
Saints -5.5 @Chiefs - Chiefs
@Dolphins -10.5 Raiders - Dolphins
Eagles -9 @Bengals - Bengals
Cardinals -3 @Seahawks - Cardinals
@Niners -6 Rams - Niners
@Steelers -4.5 Chargers - Steelers
Titans -3 @Jaguars - Jaguars
Cowboys -1.5 @Redskins - Cowboys
@Bills -4.5 Browns - Bills

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Quick Slants - Reality Football

Here are my quick thoughts on the real world of pro and college football:

The last five minutes of Monday Night Football was excruciating to watch. The Cardinals and Niners game dragged on and on like the last 15 seconds of an NBA game. The penalties were unbelievable. At one point, I thought the Cardinals were trying to lose. Their mishaps paled in comparison to the clock management of Coach Singletary, Mike Martz, and company. The Niners wasted at least 25 seconds and two plays. Here is my advice to Coach Singletary. Do not trust Mike Martz. Martz will do anything to be a head coach again. Singletary should make Martz call the plays from upstairs in the coaches’ booth. Get him off the sidelines. Secondly, Coach Singletary get out of San Francisco. Do not take the head coaching job. You will get an opportunity somewhere else. The Niners are being run by 27 year-old Jed York. He kind of looked like the kid that gets stuffed into a locker after gym class. He is making the football decisions? Insert your own expletive. Singletary needs to do his best in the next seven games and get out of town at the end of the year. Maybe, go coach the Vols.

At this moment, Kurt Warner is not a Hall of Famer. He is a very good player and a great person, but he did not have a long enough sustained period of excellence. The statistics cited on Monday Night Football are impressive, but how many of those 300 yard passing games were racked up in losses? Warner is an MVP candidate this year. If he wins the MVP this year and comes back with another winning season next year, he has a legitimate argument for the Hall of Fame. Remember the Hall of Fame is for great, not very good, players.

The NFL illegal forward pass rule is terrible. The line of scrimmage should be enforced just like the goal line. If the ball is across the line of scrimmage, the offense cannot make a forward pass. The rule as applied in the NY Giants versus the Philadelphia Eagles game makes no sense. That play should have been a penalty for Eli Manning and the Giants. Give credit to Manning, Kevin Gilbride, and Coach Tom Coughlin for knowing the rule.

Matthew Stafford should declare himself eligible for the NFL. The economics alone should be reason enough. The 2009 draft might be the last time rookies can demand the huge guaranteed money in signing bonuses. The NFL should and will adopt a rookie salary scale like the NBA. Top draft picks will have salary slots and maybe a two year guaranteed contract. Staying in school might cost Stafford anywhere from 20-30 million dollars over three years. That number is staggering. Okay, forget the money; there are a ton of other reasons. The immediate success of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco paves the way. Stafford is as physically talented as either of these guys. If he tests well on the personality and intelligence tests, he is a top 10 pick in 2009. He is one of the few quarterbacks eligible for the draft that plays in a pro style offense. Georgia is not going to be better next year. I have a list of about 10 more reasons why he should turn pro; the really difficult job is to come up with any reasons for him to stay for his senior year at Georgia.

The apologists speaking for Georgia Bulldog nation have to stop. In August, Georgia fans were not even talking about Alabama as a legitimate opponent. The Black Out was a bust. The Dawgs lost to Florida 49-10 and the game was not even that close. The fact is the team has not lived up to anyone’s expectations. Accept it and move on. In the real world of college football, Georgia is a regional power. Georgia is not an elite program yet. I am a huge Mark Richt fan. He is the right man for this job, but Coach Richt has to make some changes. There is a lack of discipline off the field and a lack of toughness on the field. The really scary thing for Georgia fans is the unknown of what is going to happen at Tennessee. What if they hire a coach that gets Tennessee back to a national championship contender? Think about these names—Mike Shanahan, Butch Davis, Bill Cowher, Steve Spurrier, Jon Gruden, Brian VanGorder. For the sake of Bulldog fans, I hope Tennessee’s athletic director thinks small.

Shouldn’t Charlie Weiss have been calling the offensive plays for the past three years? He is supposed to be an offensive guru. Notre Dame giving Weiss a ten year contract extension after one year is turning out to be one of the dumbest moves in college football history. I could not be more tired of Coach Weiss. In a sound byte today, he asked where is the program going to go. In college football, teams are either getting better or getting worse. The Irish are getting worse. They are 27-19 with Weiss as the head coach. Ouch. And they are not even playing a very tough schedule. After his first two years, the Irish went to BCS games and proceeded to get blown out. Supposedly, Coach Weiss has between a 14 and 21 million dollar buy out. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish booster club parties are already miserable affairs and now they are going to have to pass the offering plate. I mean they should have lost to San Diego State in week 1.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 10

Start’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. Flacco is emerging as a solid play every week. He is making long throws down the field. The Ravens have some decent weapons around him and a very good running game. Flacco finished the game 15-23 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had a 43 yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Yamon Figurs. Add a 2-point conversion pass to Derrick Mason for a total of 16 Fantasy points.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. Pennington finished the game 22-36 for 209 yards with one touchdown and one interception. I expected better passing stats for Pennington versus the Seahawks. He did hit Ted Ginn on a flea flicker play for a 39-yard touchdown pass. Pennington finished with 8 total Fantasy points.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs. Charles was a waiver wire pick up in a ton of Fantasy leagues. I picked him up and started in him in my Atlanta league. Big mistake. He had 3 carries for 8 yards. His game this week was a huge drop off from his production and touches last week. Chiefs lost another close game.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Against Minnesota, Grant finished the game with 16 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. Grant is making the most of his carries and probably should be getting more chances to run the football. He is starting to live up to his preseason draft status.

Lee Evans, Bills. The Bills and Evans are in free fall. This is the second straight way below average game for Evans. He only had 2 catches for 22 yards. The Bills might start thinking about making a quarterback change. Wide receivers usually are the hardest position to predict, but you have to think hard about starting Evans next week.

Sit’em

Marc Bulger, Rams. Bulger ended up 6-13 for 65 yards and 1 interception. He had a grand total of 0 Fantasy points. Bulger was trending upward the past three weeks until running into the Jets’ defense. Bulger owners should only consider starting him when the Rams play at home, and he has a good match up. Otherwise, find a different QB option.

Eli Manning, Giants. This game had more points scored than I anticipated. The Eagles had a chance to take the lead with a touchdown on the final drive, but could not convert a short 4th down play. Manning finished the game 17-31 for 191 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. An average game for Manning this season.

Deuce McCallister, Saints. The Falcons’ defense shut down the high-powered Saints’ offense. The Saints scored two garbage time 4th quarter touchdowns. Unfortunately for my picks, one touchdown was a 15 yard pass from Drew Brees to McCallister. Deuce finished with only 5 rushes for 18 yards, but he he had 2 catches for 23 yards and a touchdown. The TD helped to double his normal weekly Fantasy point total.

Matt Forte, Bears. Forte did not lose a step even with a new starting quarterback. He is definitely in the top three for Rookie of the Year voting. He had 126 combined rushing and receiving yards which included a 5 yard touchdown pass from Rex Grossman. Forte has been one of the best all around running backs in the NFL this year.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles. I knew this prediction was in trouble when the Eagles lined up with Jackson in the shotgun--their version of the Single Wing formation. Jackson took a direct snap and ran for an early touchdown. McNabb also looked for him throughout the game. Jackson had 85 combined rushing and receiving yards with a touchdown.

Totals: 4-6 (Overall 56-36-5)

My Picks

Wins: Jets, Panthers, Chiefs
Losses: Browns, Bills, Saints, Lions, Dolphins, Bears, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Cardinals
Total: 3-11 (Overall 70-69-5)

Fantasy Games. Wow, this week was my worst of the season at picking games and Fantasy players. The only thing that can save this weekend for me is a huge Monday Night Football game from Kurt Warner and Tim Hightower. I am down 45 points, so I need a monster game from the Cardinals’ offense.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 10

Byes: Cowboys, Redskins, Bengals, Buccaneers

Start’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. Baltimore fans are wacko for quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco has been a surprisingly steady hand for the Ravens’ offense. He was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against the Browns. If the Ravens can protect him against the Texans, look for Flacco to have at least 225 yards and a touchdown. Flacco only is owned in about 40% of Fantasy leagues, so he is worth a waiver wire pick up for the stretch run.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. A couple of weeks ago the Seahawks traveled to Florida and played Tampa Bay. Tampa’s quarterback Jeff Garcia had the best Fantasy game of anyone that week. In Week 10, the Seahawks make the long trip across the country to visit play the Dolphins. Pennington has been consistently playing well, but this week he is even better. Pennington also should benefit, because the Dolphins’ receivers are improving each week.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs. Believe it or not the Chiefs’ offense is playing well right now. Charles will start at running back this week. Last week, he amassed over 100 yards rushing and receiving. Look for him to have between 20-25 touches this week. Charles has a great match up going against the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers’ defense is 29th in the NFL in Fantasy points allowed.

Ryan Grant, Packers. I know Grant has been a bust so far this year. He was a top 20 pick in most drafts, but he is not even averaging 5 Fantasy points per week. The Packers are even grumbling to the media that they gave him too much money. But this week against the Minnesota Vikings, Grant finally will have a break out game. I saw the Packers’ game last week and Grant looked like he was running hard and making quick cuts. Stay with him for one more week.

Lee Evans, Bills. Evans had his worst game of the year last week against the Jets. He definitely will bounce back against New England. The Patriots’ defense is getting better, but their secondary is still the weakest link. The Bills versus the Patriots is a huge game this week and Evans should be one of the stars of the game.

*Bonus Pick – Start any Carolina Panthers that you have on your roster against the Oakland Raiders. If you have both Carolina running backs on your team, I might even consider playing both of them. The Raiders already are making vacation plans.

Sit’em

Marc Bulger, Rams. The former Fantasy stalwart has been trending upward for the past three weeks, but Bulger goes on the road to play the New York Jets. Without much acclaim, the Jets’ defense has emerged as a force in the AFC. Defensive tackle Chris Jenkins and cornerback Darelle Revis are playing at a Pro Bowl level. New Coach Jim Haslett has made the Rams into a more competitive team, but the injury to Steven Jackson has hurt the Rams’ offense and has put more pressure on Bulger.

Eli Manning, Giants. These NFC rivalry games are always wars of attrition. The Eagles defense will blitz Manning all game long. The Giants should counter by running the football with their three-headed monster at running back. Look for a low scoring contest with Manning throwing for about 150 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Deuce McCallister, Saints. With Reggie Bush likely to miss the game with his knee injury, Deuce should have some opportunities against the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. However, the Falcons’ defense is underrated against the run. I have watched every game this year and the defense is able to shut down bigger, power running backs. It is the quick guys that have given them trouble. McCallister has only scored two touchdowns this season and he is not used to carrying a heavy workload. Look for the Falcons’ defense to shut down McCallister this week in a big Falcons’ win.

Matt Forte, Bears. You probably have to start Forte against the Titans, because he has been a solid Fantasy option this year. However, the odds are stacked against him. The Titans’ defense is great against the run. They hit hard and tackle very well. The Bears are starting Rex “Wrecks” Grossman at quarterback. The Titans will not be impressed. Look for the Titans to play man coverage on the wide receivers and stack about 8 players in the box to stop Forte and the Bears’ running attack.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles. Since the Eagles’ Week 7 bye, Jackson’s targets and opportunities have diminished. He still has big play capabilities, but wide receivers Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are starting to play like they were projected to in the preseason. These guys are seeing more passes form Donovan McNabb. Jackson should be ranked in the third tier of Fantasy receivers at this point in the season.

My Picks

@Browns -3 Broncos - Browns
Jaguars -6.5 @Lions - Lions
@Jets -8.5 Rams - Jets
Titans -3 @Bears - Bears
@Vikings -2.5 Packers - Vikings
@Dolphins -8 Seahawks - Dolphins
Ravens -1 @Texans - Texans
@Patriots -3.5 Bills - Bills
@Falcons -1 Saints - Saints
Panthers -9.5 @Raiders - Panthers
@Steelers -1 Colts - Steelers
@Chargers -14.5 Chiefs - Chiefs
@Eagles -3 Giants - Eagles
@Cardinals -9 Niners - Cardinals

State of the Fantasy Season. Fantasy football has changed over the past two seasons. Quarterbacks have taken over as the main Fantasy point scorers in most cases. Running backs are important, but the tendency to specialize at the running back position and to split carries has hurt their impact in Fantasy Football. Quarterbacks are great until you come to a week like this week. Fantasy owners are scrambling. QBs are hurt. QBs are getting benched. Brady Quinn is actually a solid Fantasy option. I mean Daunte Culpepper may start for the Lions this week! C’mon man.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Wrap Up - Week 9

Start’em

Kurt Warner, Cardinals. In his return to St. Louis, Warner was 23-34 for 342 yards and two touchdowns. He is completing around 70% on the season. On Sunday, he averaged about 15 yards per completion. Warner has the hot hand. For a guy that was not drafted in most leagues, he is performing like a Fantasy MVP candidate.

Michael Turner, Falcons. Falcons are riding the Turner Train. He had 31 carries for 139 yards. Remarkably, this game played out exactly like I figured that it would. The Falcons jumped on the Raiders in the 1st quarter and used Turner to control the clock. He is hard to tackle with just one or two people. Amazingly, the Falcons held the Raiders to -2 total yards in the 1st half. No team has done that to another team since 1992!

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. Graham had a wild day for a running back. On a halfback pass play, he threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to TE Alex Smith. He also had 24 touches on offense for 91 combined rushing and receiving yards. He lost two fumbles for -2 points. One of the fumbles was in the 4th quarter at the 2-yard line that the Chiefs recovered for a touchback. With Warrick Dunn inactive and hurting, Graham will have lots of opportunities.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. I seriously underestimated the Ravens’ defense. They gave up some yards in the passing game, but Lewis could find no running room. Lewis has not scored many Fantasy points in the last few weeks. On Sunday, he had 19 carries for 49 yards and one reception for 13 yards. You might look at other options in your line up in place of Lewis.

Plaxico Burress, Giants. This team is proving a point to Plaxico that they can score without him. Manning found almost every other wide receiver for a touchdown against the Cowboys. Steve Smith, Amani Toomer, and Kevin Boss scored on short pass plays. Burress finished the game with 3 catches for 34 yards. Giants look like the best team in the NFL.

Sit’em

Matt Cassel, Patriots. This game had few touchdowns scored. The Patriots controlled the game with their offensive line and by running the football. Some strange time-outs called by Coach Belichick. Cassel completed 25-34 passes for 204 yards and one interception. He also scrambled for 20 yards and another Fantasy point. Cassel should have better numbers with his corps of players around him. Patriots have to find a way to get Moss open deep down the field.

Brad Johnson, Cowboys. The Cowboys are in serious danger of not making the playoffs this year. I knew it was not good when I saw on the game ticker during the Falcons’ game that Brooks Bollinger was in the game. Johnson finished the game 5-11 for 71 yards and two interceptions for a -2 Fantasy points. This outing was a predictably horrible performance for Johnson and the Cowboys.

Santana Moss, Redskins. Monday night was a tough night for Santana Moss. The Steelers defense was all over QB Jason Campbell, and Moss came into the game injured. You have to be 100% to make plays against the Steelers #1 defense. Moss finished the game with 2 catches for 14 yards.

Reggie Wayne, Colts. Wayne finished the game with 5 receptions for 65 yards, but he was able to add to his Fantasy point total by catching a 2-point conversion in the 2nd half. This game is the third below average game for Wayne. More than half of his catches came on the Colts second half scoring drive. For most of the game, Wayne was not a factor and he is not getting the number of targets that he normally does.

Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs. This game had to be frustrating for the Chiefs. They had a huge lead on the Buccaneers and lost in overtime. Gonzalez finished the game with 7 receptions for 62 yards for a grand total of 4 Fantasy points. The Chiefs’ offense is improving, but this was a below average day for Gonzalez.

Totals: 8-2 (Overall 52-30-5)

My Picks

Wins: Lions, Packers, Cardinals, Falcons, Patriots, Steelers
Losses: Bills, Texans, Jaguars, Browns, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Broncos
Total: 6-8 (Overall 67-58-5)

Fantasy Games. Tough week for me picking games against the spread, but I felt much better about my teams’ performances in Fantasy games. In both games, the teams scored over 60 points. I need the Steelers’ defense to come up big on Monday night to help me secure a win in my Atlanta league. I am losing by 8 points. In my other league, my opponent has the Redskins’ kicker and Antwaan Randle El. MNF has to be a low scoring game for me to win both my games this week. This week was a rare week where almost everything came together for me to win two Fantasy games. The Steelers’ defense came up big.

Make sure to go and vote tomorrow!

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 9

Byes: Saints, Chargers, Niners, Panthers

Start’em

Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Many Fantasy owners (including myself) benched Warner in last week’s game against the Carolina Panthers. Big mistake. That one decision cost me a Fantasy win in a very competitive league. For this week, Warner is the #1 quarterback play. He has a great match up with an improving Rams team, but the big advantage for him is that this game is indoors on the turf. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston should be running all over the field against the Rams.

Michael Turner, Falcons. One of the big question marks each week for the Falcons is whether or not they will be able to run the football. The news that rookie offensive tackle Sam Brady is out for an indefinite period of time is not good for Falcons’ fans. The road trip to the West Coast is another concern for Turner owners. However, the absolute terribleness of the Raiders’ defense outweighs any of these factors. The prediction is the Falcons jump out to an early lead, and Turner has about 30 carries for 125 yards.

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. The Bucanneers’ offense took a big step back last week against Dallas. They had trouble moving the football. I look for Coach Jon Gruden to try and establish the missing in action running game on the road against the Chiefs. With Warrick Dunn’s back still an issue, Graham should get plenty of opportunities to score points this week.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. Play Lewis against the vaunted Ravens’ run defense? Yes, this week the Ravens’ will give up over 100 yards to Lewis on the ground. Count on Lewis for a big game this week.

Plaxico Burress, Giants. Do not listen to the reports of Plaxico’s demise. Clearly, he has some off the field personal or family issues he needs to resolve, but this guy is a competitor. The bigger the game, the better Burress plays. The Steelers were able to hold the Giants to field goals in the red zone. This week Burress is halfway out of Coach Coughlin’s doghouse. Look for at least two Eli Manning to Burress fade routes into the end zone.

Sit’em

Matt Cassel, Patriots. The Colts are favored this week at home against the Patriots. Does Vegas know some inside information? Patriots look like the much stronger team especially on defense. The problem for Cassel owners is that on the road this year Cassel and the Patriots have been a totally different team.

Brad Johnson, Cowboys. If you own Tony Romo and picked up Brad Johnson to play while Romo is out, you need to admit the mistake before its too late. Against some other teams, starting Johnson this week might be an option. Starting him against the Giants is punishable by jail time. I almost feel badly for Johnson that he has to start the game in real life. The Giants pass rush is an overwhelming force. Back up Brooks Bollinger probably will see some action this Sunday.

Santana Moss, Redskins. Moss was incredible last week against the Lions. He made huge plays that helped propel Washington to a win. Even with the great statistics from that game, Moss owners know that he is up and down. Just check out his weekly Fantasy point totals. His match up this week against the Steelers’ defense is more evidence that this is a week to sit Moss.

Reggie Wayne, Colts. The Colts need Joseph Addai back and at full strength. He is supposed to play this week, but Reggie Wayne is the Colts’ only deep threat. Marvin Harrison is struggling and Anthony Gonzalez is a solid possession receiver, but he does not garner any extra attention from defensive coordinators. Other teams are free to double Wayne and take him out of the game. In this heated rivalry game, I am predicting a low scoring contest with a minimum of Fantasy points to go around.

Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs. Gonzalez is the second ranked TE in Fantasy football, so you almost have to play him this week. However, do not count on him to have a big game against the Bucanneers. Tampa Bay’s defense is strong in the middle of the field. Derrick Brooks and their safeties will be matching up with Gonzalez all day. Plus, the Bucs have the extra benefit of having prepared and played against the Cowboys’ Jason Witten last week. Their defensive schemes to stop the tight end should carry over.

My Picks

@Bills -5.5 Jets - Bills
Jaguars -7.5 @Bengals - Jaguars
@Browns -1.5 Ravens - Browns
@Vikings -4.5 Texans - Texans
@Bears -12.5 Lions - Lions
Buccaneers -9 @Chiefs - Buccaneers
Cardinals -3 @Rams - Cardinals
@Titans -5.5 Packers - Packers
@Broncos -3 Dolphins - Broncos
@Giants -9 Cowboys - Cowboys
Eagles -6.5 @Seahawks - Seahawks
Falcons -3 @Raiders - Falcons
@Colts -6 Patriots - Patriots
@Redskins -1.5 Steelers - Steelers