Start'em or Sit'em - Week 4

Start’em

Carson Palmer, Bengals. The Bengals will ride the confidence of last week’s game and put up lots of points this week versus the Browns. This game could be a shoot out. Palmer will throw for a couple of touchdowns and near 300 yards. Expect Palmer to make a strong effort to find Ocho Cinquo.

JT O’Sullivan, Niners. There’s something about JT. Niners are scoring lots of points and the Saints are giving up lots of points. O’Sullivan has weapons at almost every skill position. The wide receivers are deep and solid if not spectacular. Plus, Gore is going to be hard to handle for the Saints.

Matt Forte, Bears. This pick seems to be in the wrong place after what the Eagles did to the Steelers’ running game last week; but there is a big difference between blitzing at home and blitzing on the road. The Cowboys were able to run against the Eagles. If Forte can get off to a fast start, he runs for over 100 yards on Sunday night.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh. This game has all the ingredients in the recipe for a big game for Ward--national TV game versus the hated Ravens, Steelers coming off a loss, and a frenzied home crowd. Expect Ward to catch at least one touchdown pass. He also will throw a couple of big blocks and maybe draw one “unnecessary roughness” penalty. Sometimes, those penalties set a physical tone for the game. Here we go Steelers, here we go!

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. I know, I know, Marshawn is a must start every week. With the risky picks in the next section, I need a guaranteed win. Lynch on turf against the Rams is perfect conditions for a huge Fantasy game. If Coach Jauron lets him play, Lynch might be looking at 3 touchdowns.

Sit’em

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. The Panthers versus the Falcons is going to be a low scoring, physical game. Both teams are going to run the football and eat up the clock. Delhomme is a leader, but I do not see him throwing the football downfield. The short passing game works to win NFL games, but it does not mean big statistics for Delhomme. The Falcons’ defense is underrated, and John Abraham should be all over Delhomme.

Philip Rivers, San Diego. San Diego has a lot of weapons on offense, but I am not totally sold on Rivers. Every week when a QB has a great game, the fans and the columnists overreact and anoint the guy the best quarterback in the league. When teams play against divisional rivals, the games are very unpredictable. The strength of the Raiders’ defense is in their secondary. San Diego wins a close low scoring contest.

Michael Turner, Falcons. Turner has been a dominant force in the Falcons’ two home games. On the road, he was not effective against Tampa Bay. Coach John Fox and the Carolina Panthers are going to take away the running game. Matt Ryan will have to make the plays to win for the Falcons. Look for Turner to have around 80 yards rushing, but no touchdowns.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. The players in this section are Fantasy studs. The big reason Fitzgerald makes this list is that the weather is supposed to be terrible in New York this weekend. The Cardinals passing game might not be able to function if the weather is bad. Also, Fitzgerald is the key to the offense and the Jets have Darelle Revis at cornerback. Revis should draw the task of shutting down Fitzgerald.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings. The Tennessee Titans defense will stop Peterson. I think Peterson is not the same back on grass as he is on turf. The Titans bandwagon is filling up and another win this Sunday will make them 4-0. Has Peterson lost a step?

My Picks

@Bengals -3.5 Browns - Bengals
@Jaguars -7.5 Texans - Texans
@Panthers -7.5 Falcons - Panthers
Broncos -9 @Chiefs - Broncos
@Saints -6 Niners - Saints
@Jets -1 Cardinals - Jets
@Buccaneers -1.5 Packers - Buccaneers
@Titans -3 Vikings - Titans
Chargers -7 @Raiders - Chargers
Bills -8 @Rams - Rams
@Cowboys -11 Redskins - Redskins
Eagles -3 @Bears - Eagles
@Steelers -5.5 Ravens - Steelers

Eliminator Contest. After that narrow escape last Sunday, I want a stone cold lead pipe lock. At first glance, I do not see any of those. Most of the time before I make a pick I consider the Vegas odds. In Vegas, your money and your job depend on setting these lines. Also, these guys have inside information from all kinds of sources. According to the spreads, this week I am taking the Broncos to beat the Chiefs.

Trade Proposals. I tried to make a blockbuster trade Tuesday night in my Atlanta league. I offered Kurt Warner and Anthony Fasano to another owner in exchange for Randy Moss and Trent Edwards. Tony Romo is my weekly starting quarterback, so giving up Warner for Edwards is not a major sacrifice. Plus, my potential trading partner lost Jeremy Shockey his only TE. Of course, he quickly rejected the deal. He said he was worried that Warner was going to get hurt. Warner is like mortgage derivatives—you might as well take a chance and make some money on them, because the government will bail you out if something bad happens. Now, I am determined to make a deal just for the sake of making a deal.

Handcuffs. On Sunday night, one of my friends that checks out this blog asked me what “handcuffs” means in Fantasy football. A handcuff is when you draft (or acquire) one of your starting players’ back up in case your starter gets hurt. For example, two years ago I drafted LaDainian Tomlinson with the first pick in the draft. Then, in a later round, I took Michael Turner. Turner is handcuffed to Tomlinson. The value of the move is determined by draft position and if you ever even play the other guy. Here is the danger--the back up starts playing well; and you start thinking about playing them both at the same time. This week I was able to win a game against an owner that started Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw ended up having a terrible week, but when you do not play the handcuff / backup player and they play well it’s frustrating.