Fantasy Football Round Table

2010-02-06T09:06:00.000-08:00

Here is my pick for the Super Bowl:

Indianapolis 5 New Orleans - New Orleans

NFL - 2010 Conference Championship Picks

2010-01-22T15:12:00.000-08:00

For the playoffs, I am now a solid 7-1 in my picks. The only game I have missed was last weekend's Dallas loss to Minnesota. I have become a believer in the Vikings and Brett Favre. In the Vikings' games I have watched this year, Favre has made some incredible throws. His accuracy was great last weekend. Here are my picks for Sunday's games:

INDIANAPOLIS 7.5 NY Jets - Indianapolis
NEW ORLEANS 4 Minnesota - Minnesota

NFL - 2010 Divisional Playoffs

2010-01-13T16:22:00.000-08:00

I was 4-0 last week picking these games, but I had a much better feel for what I thought was going to happen. This week the point spreads are bigger, but I think the games are going to be closer. This weekend and next weekend are two of the best weekends of the year. Go Saints!

NEW ORLEANS 7 Arizona - New Orleans
MINNESOTA 3 Dallas - Dallas
INDIANAPOLIS 6.5 Baltimore - Indianapolis
SAN DIEGO 7 New York - New York

Wild Card Picks

2010-01-07T13:41:00.000-08:00

At Cincy 2 Jets - Jets
At Dallas 4 Philly - Dallas
At New England. 3 Baltimore - Baltimore
At Arizona 1.5. Green Bay - Arizona

2009 NFL PIcks - Week 14

2009-12-12T15:33:00.000-08:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are no more byes this year in the NFL schedule, so there are 16 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted December 12 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

INDIANAPOLIS 7 Denver - Denver
MINNESOTA 6.5 Cincinnati - Minnesota
NY Jets 3 TAMPA - Tampa
KANSAS CITY Pk Buffalo - Buffalo
Green Bay 3 CHICAGO - Green Bay
New Orleans 10 ATLANTA - New Orleans
BALTIMORE 13.5 Detroit - Detroit
JACKSONVILLE 2.5 Miami - Miami
NEW ENGLAND 13 Carolina - Carolina
HOUSTON 6.5 Seattle - Houston
TENNESSEE 13 St. Louis - Tennessee
Washington 1 OAKLAND - Oakland
DALLAS 3 San Diego - Dallas
NY GIANTS 1 Philadelphia - NY Giants
Arizona 3.5 SAN FRANCISCO - Arizona

Thursday Night
Pittsburgh 10 CLEVELAND - Pittsburgh (ugh!)

2009 NFL Picks Record: 102-89-1

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 13

2009-12-09T18:47:00.000-08:00

Wow, what a week for me in Fantasy Football in the Dallas League. I needed a win to make the playoffs. Sunday morning I was bouncing back and forth between starting Brandon Jacobs or Cadillac Williams. I chose Cadillac. Terrible move. Sunday evening I thought this move was going to keep me out of the dance and keep me from winning any cash.

With all my players finished playing, I had a 23 point lead on my opponent, but he still had Brett Favre and Greg Jennings to play. Luckily for me, Favre played his worst game of the year, but he did score 6 late Fantasy points on a garbage touchdown. I was yelling for Vikings coach Brad Childress to bench him.

So, going into MNF, I had an 8 point lead and I only needed to avoid a touchdown or a big yardage night from Greg Jennings. It was clearly touch and go all night long, but I ended up winning my game by 2 points 69-67. I am the #6 seed out of 6 playoff teams. I just need Peyton Manning to get hot again, Randy Moss to play big, and Brandon Jacobs to do what he did this week.

Going into the playoffs, I am already down a starter because I do not think that Hines Ward is going to play tomorrow night. I probably have to play Michael Crabtree as my #2 receiver. He could have a big game and he plays on Monday night. He actually could be the deciding Fantasy player this week.

I had one of my worst weeks of the year picking games against the spread. I ended up 6-10 for the week and that drops me to 102-89-1 on the season. Tonight, I need to pick up a back up QB and a back up kicker for the playoffs. In our league, rosters are set this Sunday, so if Manning or Nate Kaeding got injured I would be in trouble.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 13

2009-12-05T09:45:00.000-08:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are no more byes this year in the NFL schedule, so there are 16 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted December 5 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

Denver 4.5 KANSAS CITY - Denver
PITTSBURGH 14.5 Oakland - Pittsburgh
JACKSONVILLE PK Houston - Houston
INDIANAPOLIS 6.5 Tennessee - Tennessee
Philadelphia 5.5 ATLANTA - Philadelphia
CINCINNATI 13 Detroit - Detroit
New Orleans 9.5 Washington - New Orleans
CAROLINA 5 Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay
CHICAGO 9.5 St. Louis - St. Louis
San Diego 14 CLEVELAND - San Diego
SEATTLE PK San Francisco - San Francisco
Minnesota 3 ARIZONA - Minnesota
Dallas 2.5 NY GIANTS - Giants
New England 4 MIAMI - New England
GREEN BAY 3 Ravens - Green Bay

Last Thursday Night:
NY Jets 3 BUFFALO - Buffalo

2009 NFL Picks Record: 96-79-1

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 12

2009-12-03T18:51:00.000-08:00

On my NFL picks this week I went 9-7 against the spread to make me 96-79-1 on the season.

In my Dallas league, this is the last regular season game. I am currently in a 4 way tie for the final playoff berth. I need huge games this week from Peyton Manning, Brandon Jacobs, and LeSean McCoy. I drafted Jacobs in the 2nd round and he has killed me all year. I am strongly considering starting Cadillac Williams with a favorable match up.

In my Atlanta league, I lost another game, but this was a heartbreaker. I went into the Sunday night game with Derrick Mason and I needed a big game from him to win. Mason played great, but I came up one point short. I needed Mason to catch one more ball for about 20 yards. That would have been nice. My performance in this league has been a disaster and I am in danger of finishing dead last.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 12

2009-11-29T08:54:00.000-08:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are no more byes this year in the NFL schedule, so there are 16 games to pick. 3 games on Thanksgiving Day. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted November 29 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

Indianapolis 3 HOUSTON - Houston
CINCINNATI 13 Cleveland - Cincinnati
MINNESOTA 10.5 Chicago - Minnesota
PHILADELPHIA 9.5 Washington - Washington
Miami 3 BUFFALO - Buffalo
TENNESSEE 2.5 Arizona - Tennessee
Seattle 4 ST. LOUIS - Seattle
ATLANTA 12 Tampa Bay - Atlanta
NY JETS 3.5 Carolina - Carolina
SAN FRANCISCO 3 Jacksonville - San Francisco
SAN DIEGO 13.5 Kansas City - Kansas City
BALTIMORE 8 Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh
NEW ORLEANS 1.5 New England - New Orleans

From Thanksgiving Day:

Green Bay 10.5 DETROIT - Green Bay
DALLAS 13.5 Oakland - Oakland
NY Giants 7 DENVER - NY Giants

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 11

2009-11-25T10:11:00.000-08:00

The Steelers are my team and they got upset this weekend by Kansas City. That game pretty much shows how my weekend went. I was 8-8 picking games. This week is another week this year where I lost almost all of the early games against the spread, but the late games I came storming back just to reach .500 for the week.

Fantasy Football can be so frustrating. I picked up Ladell Betts last week, but did not play him. Clearly, my fault. Then, I thought about picking up Jason Snelling from the Atlanta Falcons on waivers, but I figured I would play Betts and be fine. Betts ended up getting hurt earlier in the Redskins and Cowboys game. He did not score a Fantasy point. Meanwhile, Snelling had a monster game.

In my Dallas league, I am in a four way tie for 4th place. Someone in this group with a very solid team is not going to make the play-offs this year. My team scored well last week, but lost. I think I had the 3rd most points for the week, but I was playing one of the best teams in the Kellen Winslow Friendship League.

I have a tough schedule, but if I can make the play-offs I have a dangerous team led by Peyton Manning and Randy Moss. I need Brandon Jacobs to come up big Thanksgiving night versus the Denver Broncos. It looks like Ahmad Bradshaw might not be able to play, so that should boost Jacob's value a little bit.

If anyone is interested, I will pick the games for tomorrow on my twitter feed on the right hand side of the page.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 11

2009-11-21T19:33:00.000-08:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are no more byes this year in the NFL schedule, so there are 16 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted November 21 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

CAROLINA 3 Miami - Carolina
DETROIT 3.5 Cleveland - Detroit
JACKSONVILLE 9 Buffalo - Buffalo
Pittsburgh 10 KANSAS CITY - Pittsburgh
Indianapolis 1.5 BALTIMORE - Baltimore
NY GIANTS 6.5 Atlanta - NY Giants
GREEN BAY 6.5 San Franscisco - Green Bay
MINNESOTA 10.5 Seattle - Minnesota
DALLAS 11 Washington - Washington
New Orleans 11 TAMPA BAY - Tampa Bay
Arizona 9 ST. LOUIS - Arizona
NEW ENGLAND 10.5 NY Jets - New England
Cincinnati 9.5 OAKLAND - Oakland
San Diego 3 DENVER - San Diego
Philadelphia 3 CHICAGO - Philadelphia
HOUSTON 4.5 Tennessee - Tennessee

2009 NFL Picks Record: 79-64-1

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 10

2009-11-17T17:55:00.000-08:00

Wow, what a Sunday and Monday this week. I went 12-3 in my NFL picks (that makes me 79-64-1 on the year) and 2-0 in Fantasy Football. I finally won another game in my Atlanta league. I was worried that I was going to finish the season with 1 measly win. I still did not make the right call on my only crucial line-up decision.

I picked up Ladell Betts on waivers last week with plans to start him, but he barely practiced last week and was listed as questionable by the Redskins. I hate running backs that have ankle or knee injuries, so Sunday morning I started thinking about starting Chester Taylor of the Vikings.

I figured the Vikings would kill the Detroit Lions and Taylor would get a bunch of garbage yards and maybe a 4th quarter touchdown. Needless to say, I started Taylor and Betts had a monster game for the 'Skins. I would really like to finish out this Atlanta league schedule with a couple of more wins.

The Sunday night game was a great game to watch especially when you have Peyton Manning and Randy Moss on the same Fantasy team. I started the game behind by 53 points to another playoff contender and the commissioner of the Kellen Winslow Friendship League. Plus, I was robbed of a win by a commissioner decision earlier in this season. It is always nice to beat the Commish and I really wanted to win this one.

Moss and Manning put on show and scored 51 points. I still had the Baltimore Ravens' defense to play on MNF and they scored huge. In this Dallas league, I am right in the middle of the playoff race. I really feel for Cleveland Browns' fans--it was almost impossible to watch the game last night.

The Browns are the worst team I have seen all year. Can Brady Quinn throw anything besides a pass near the line of scrimmage? Awful. Terrible. It might be time for Roger Goodell to step in and do something for the sake of the fans and the city of Cleveland.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 10

2009-11-14T18:54:00.000-08:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are only 2 teams with a bye this week in the NFL schedule, so there are 15 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted November 14 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

SAN FRANCISCO 3 Bears - Bears
NY JETS 7 Jacksonville - Jacksonville
Denver 3.5 WASHINGTON - Washington
PITTSBURGH 7 Cincinnati - Pittsburgh
TENNESSEE 7 Buffalo - Tennessee
MINNESOTA 16.5 Detroit - Minnesota
New Orleans 13.5 ST. LOUIS - New Orleans
Atlanta 1.5 CAROLINA - Carolina
MIAMI 10 Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay
OAKLAND 2 Kansas City - Kansas City
ARIZONA 8.5 Seattle - Arizona
SAN DIEGO 1 Philadelphia - San Diego
Dallas 3 GREEN BAY - Green Bay
INDIANAPOLIS 3 New England - New England
Baltimore 10.5 CLEVELAND - Baltimore

2009 NFL Picks Record: 67-61-1

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 9

2009-11-10T19:35:00.001-08:00

Steadily, I am making some headway on my NFL picks. 10 out of 13 NFL underdogs this week covered the point spread. The only favorites to win and cover were Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. I went 8-5 this week.

Monday night was another close call for me in Fantasy. In my Dallas league, I was up by 12 points going into the game. I had the Steelers Hines Ward and my opponent had the Denver Broncos defense. He cut the game to 4 points when the Broncos returned a Big Ben fumble for a touchdown.

At that point, the Broncos defense still had not allowed a touchdown and Ward was struggling big time. The Steelers took that kick-off and drove down for a touchdown scored by Ward. After that score, I breathed a little easier. Ward capped off a great night with a late touchdown. The win moved my to 5-4 on the season, but in this league, there is a very tight race for playoff spots. 10 teams basically have a shot to make the playoffs in this league.

I was able to pick up Ryan Moats in my Atlanta league and he scored 10 points for my team, but now Moats is on a bye. My running back situation is a total mess. The Colts' Donald Brown is not playing, Moats is on a bye, Larry Johnson just got cut by the Chiefs and Matt Forte is at the top of the 2009 list of Fantasy team killers.

2009 NFL Picks Record: 67-61-1

2009 NFL Picks - Week 9

2009-11-07T10:33:00.001-08:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are 6 teams with a bye this week in the NFL schedule, so there are only 13 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted November 7 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

JACKSONVILLE 6.5 Kansas City - Jacksonville
Baltimore 3 CINCINNATI - Baltimore
INDIANAPOLIS 9 Houston - Houston
ATLANTA 9 Washington - Atlanta
Green Bay 9.5 TAMPA - Green Bay
CHICAGO 3 Arizona - Arizona
NEW ENGLAND 10.5 Miami - New England
NEW ORLEANS 13 Carolina - Carolina
SEATTLE 10 Detroit - Seattle
SAN FRANCISCO 4.5 Tennessee - Tennessee
NY GIANTS 4.5 San Diego - NY Giants
PHILADELPHIA 3 Dallas - Dallas
Pittsburgh 3 DENVER - Pittsburgh

2009 NFL Picks Record: 59-56-1

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 8

2009-11-03T17:58:00.000-08:00

Another mediocre week of picking games left me at 6-7 for the weekend. I did pick the Vikings, Miami, and St. Louis to cover, but lost out on the big favorites San Diego, New Orleans, and Arizona. That still leaves me slightly above .500 for the year.

I am not an Atlanta Falcons fan or a New Orleans Saints fan, but I watched almost every play of the 4th quarter with trepidation. In one of my leagues this week, I had a slim lead going into MNF. I had Tony Gonzales, but my opponent was playing Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey.

Late in the game, Shockey caught about a 15 yard pass to tie up our Fantasy match up. The Saints eventually scored and the Falcons got the ball back. When Matt Ryan found Gonzales with a couple of catches in the last minutes, I was celebrating like I had won the Kellen Winslow Friendship League title. I am now 4-4 in my Dallas League and I am in playoff contention.

In my Atlanta league, I am just getting torched. I am 1-7, but there was some light at the end of the tunnel this week. My team put up over 90 points with a garbage number two running back. But, the guy I was playing had Stephen Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew. Unlucky. Another loss.

I am going to try and pick up Ryan Moats this week, so I am not giving up on playing the spoiler role in the final weeks of the season. To make matters worse, TE Owen Daniels is out for the year on this roster.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 8

2009-10-31T09:26:00.000-07:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are 6 teams with a bye this week in the NFL schedule, so there are only 13 games to pick. These point spreads (except for the Atlanta vs. New Orleans game) are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 31 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

BALTIMORE 3 Denver - Baltimore
CHICAGO 13 Cleveland - Cleveland
Houston 3 BUFFALO - Buffalo
GREEN BAY 3 Minnesota - Minnesota
INDIANAPOLIS 12.5 San Francisco - Indianapolis
NY JETS 3 Miami - Miami
DETROIT 4 St. Louis - St. Louis
DALLAS 9.5 Seattle - Dallas
SAN DIEGO 16.5 Oakland - San Diego
TENNESSEE 3 Jacksonville - Tennessee
ARIZONA 10 Carolina - Arizona
NY Giants 1 PHILADELPHIA - NY Giants
NEW ORLEANS 10 Atlanta - New Orleans

Fantasy Wrap-up - NFL Week 7

2009-10-28T14:54:00.000-07:00

Finally, I made some good NFL picks against the spread. I went 9-3-1 this week. After making the picks, I was nervous because I picked mostly favorites and gave points. Usually, this is what Las Vegas wants the general public to do. If you go with the public opinion, you often get killed on Sundays, but this week Vegas had to lose a ton of money.

It could have been worse. If the 49ers had not pulled QB Shaun Hill, the Houston Texans probably would have been the 11th favorite to cover in Week 7. The only two underdogs to cover were Arizona and Buffalo and they won their games outright. I picked Buffalo in a feeble attempt to give some karma to my Fantasy wide out Terrell Owens. Well, one out of two isn't bad.

Speaking of Fantasy, I am almost at the give up point. I was in a position that happens every week in Fantasy. I was leading both of my games going into Monday Night Football. All I needed was the Washington Redskins to play really well and make the game a low scoring contest. What a joke. David Akers, the Eagles' kicker and the Eagles' defense combined to beat me in both my leagues before halftime!

One bright spot this week was that I did pick up Michael Crabtree in both leagues and he played okay for his first game. That pick up could help me make the playoffs in my Dallas league. What is going on with the Atlanta league, you ask? Forget it. I just watched the Alien sequels last weekend and I have had a Bill Paxton type meltdown already.

It can't be that bad, these are some of the guys on my roster in that league--Matt Forte, Larry Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Terrell Owens. Remember how good Boldin and Forte were last year? Yeah, neither do I.

2009 NFL Picks Record: 53-49-1

2009 NFL Picks - Week 7

2009-10-22T18:56:00.000-07:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. There are 6 teams with a bye this week in the NFL schedule, so there are only 13 games to pick. Also, the New England and Tampa Bay game is in London, England. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 22 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

San Diego 4.5 KANSAS CITY - San Diego
Indianapolis 13 ST. LOUIS - Indianapolis
CINCINNATI 1.5 Chicago - Chicago
Green Bay 7 CLEVELAND - Green Bay
PITTSBURGH 4 Minnesota - Pittsburgh
New England 14.5 TAMPA BAY - New England
HOUSTON 3 San Francisco - Houston
New York Jets 6 OAKLAND - Oakland
CAROLINA 7 Buffalo - Buffalo
New Orleans 6 MIAMI - New Orleans
DALLAS 4 Atlanta - Dallas
NY GIANTS 7 Arizona - NY Giants
Philadelphia 7 WASHINGTON - Philadelphia

2009 NFL Picks Record: 44-46

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 6

2009-10-20T17:59:00.000-07:00

October is a great time to be a sports fan. Monday night's baseball games and Monday Night Football were fun to watch. I really like the late afternoon start time for playoff baseball games. You might miss some of the early innings, but you are able to catch all of the crucial moments.

Going into the weekend, I felt good about my NFL picks. There were a ton of home favorites and big point spreads. I went 6-8 on the weekend to fall one game below .500 for the season. I missed on some close covers by losing teams like the Ravens and Browns.

At least, playoff baseball is giving me something to look forward to, because my Fantasy Football season is slowly going down the drain. I was killed in my Atlanta league this weekend to drop to 1-5 on the season. In my Dallas league, my receivers had nice games, but both my bench running backs played better than my starters. I am having a major dilemma every Sunday on whether to start the Giants' Brandon Jacobs or Ahmad Bradshaw. So far, I have been staying with Jacobs, but he is struggling big time.

Here is my Fantasy year in a microcosm. Peyton Manning has been carrying me, but he was on a bye this week. There were very few options on the waiver wire, but I went with Mark Sanchez of the Jets against the Bills. All Sanchez did was throw 5 interceptions in one of the worst performances by a QB this season. Sanchez looked miserable in the cold and wind in New York. I guess I should have figured in the weather.

The bright spots this week for me were my TE's, Hines Ward, Randy Moss, and Aaron Rodgers. Hines is quietly having a Pro Bowl season. Moss was huge against the Titans and he looks to be back in sync with Tom Brady. Rodgers has been steady this year, but he is the one guy I can count on in my Atlanta league and he is not going to win Fantasy games by himself.

In my Dallas league, I am 3-3 and I think my line-up is solid going into the second half of the Fantasy season. I need the Ravens' defense to step up, but other than that I am getting above average production from the other players. I need to pick up a kicker this week and will probably go with a kicker playing against a bad team.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 6

2009-10-15T18:34:00.000-07:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. Byes now each week in the NFL schedule, so there are only 14 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 15 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

WASHINGTON 6.5 Kansas City - Kansas City
CINCINNATI 4.5 Houston - Houston
PITTSBURGH 14 Cleveland - Pittsburgh
MINNESOTA 2.5 Baltimore - Minnesota
JACKSONVILLE 10 ST. Louis - St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS 3.5 NY Giants - Giants
Carolina 3.5 TAMPA BAY - Carolina
GREEN BAY 13.5 Detroit - Detroit
Philadelphia 14 OAKLAND - Philadelphia
SEATTLE 2.5 Arizona - Arizona
NY JETS 9.5 Buffalo - NY Jets
NEW ENGLAND 9 Tennessee - New England
ATLANTA 3.5 Chicago - Chicago
SAN DIEGO 4 Denver - San Diego

2009 NFL Picks Record: 38-38

*Wow, 12 out of 14 home teams are favored this week.

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 5

2009-10-13T19:33:00.000-07:00

It seems that I am destined this year to be very average. I was 1-1 again this week in Fantasy Football and 7-7 in my NFL picks. That still leaves me at .500 for the year on picks versus the spread. Definitely, my best pick of the week was the Bengals to cover the spread against the hated Baltimore Ravens. I also picked Miami to win against the Jets.

In Fantasy games, I am making every wrong move with my roster in the Atlanta league. I dropped the Titans' defense and picked up the 49ers' defense. After the strong showing last year, the Titans have been terrible this year. The 49ers looked like a steal and a good start at home against Atlanta. Wrong. The 49ers put a -7 points on the board which seems impossible. The Falcons totally dominated that game.

To make matters worse, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte had bye weeks. I was forced to start Matt Cassel and Larry Johnson of the Chiefs. Cassel actually came through with a solid Fantasy game, but I was so uncomfortable with starting him I picked up Derek Anderson of the Browns and let go of WR Jeremy Maclin. Maclin had his best day of the year and Anderson had one of the worst games in the history of NFL quarterbacks. I think I jinxed him. My team is now 1-4 and in dead last in that league.

Luckily on draft day, I picked Peyton Manning in my Dallas league. I have never been a big fan and I had Peyton rated lower than a few other quarterbacks, but the QB I really wanted was gone when I picked. Lucky for me. Manning has carried me to a 3-2 record. One of those losses is somewhat disputed, so I feel pretty good about that team.

Peyton is on a bye this week and my back up plan is to start Mark Sanchez. I felt okay about that post waiver wire pick up last week, but with his performance last night and the addition of WR Braylon Edwards I like Sanchez this week. I need some other guys on the roster to step up to pick up the points lost with Manning on a bye.

This week I want to make some moves to make my Atlanta team better, but I do not see much out there. My team defense is awful, T.O. has killed me, and my running back situation is the worst in the league. I mean I actually picked up Mewelde Moore last week and thought about starting him against Detroit. That is really reaching for something in the distance...

2009 NFL Picks - Week 5

2009-10-08T17:33:00.000-07:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. Byes started last week in the NFL, so there are only 14 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 7 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy. (There was no posted spread for the Seattle game, so I went with a spread from another web site.)

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

Minnesota 10 ST. LOUIS - Minnesota
Dallas 9 KANSAS CITY - Kansas City
CAROLINA 3.5 Washington - Carolina
PHILADELPHIA 14.5 Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay
NY GIANTS 16 Oakland - Oakland
BUFFALO 6 Cleveland - Cleveland
BALTIMORE 8.5 Cincinnati - Cincinnati
Pittsburgh 10.5 DETROIT - Pittsburgh
SAN FRANCISCO 2.5 Atlanta - San Francisco
New England 3 DENVER - New England
ARIZONA 5.5 Houston - Arizona
Jacksonville 3 SEATTLE - Jacksonville
Indianapolis 8.5 TENNESSEE - Indianapolis
NY Jets 1.5 MIAMI - Miami

2009 NFL Picks Record: 31-31

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 4

2009-10-06T18:31:00.000-07:00

For whatever reason, the 1 pm NFL games this year are killing my picks. I struggled again out of the gate this week, but with the help of San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota all covering the spread at home, I finished the week 7-7 to stay at .500 for the season.

This weekend I was cut off from my Internet access, but I was able to follow the games and scores on the radio on Sunday. It seemed like my players were putting up some good numbers. The Bears' Matt Forte even came through with a touchdown and over 120 total yards. I started Donald Brown of the Colts and he scored a touchdown, so I was feeling good before checking the scores of my two Fantasy games.

Of course, in my Atlanta league, I was getting killed. My opponent racked up over 100 points this week. That owner made a great pick up and start of Rashad Mendenhall of the Steelers. Mendenhall had a monster game against San Diego. I am a huge Steelers fans so it was hard to be upset with that outcome. In this league, I dropped to 1-3 on the year and I have major bye week roster problems. Good times.

In my Dallas league, I came into the Monday night game down 12 points, but I had Mason Crosby kicking for me. I drafted this guy because he can make 50-yard field goals. He was kicking in a dome to make me feel even a little more confident. Aaron Rodgers helped kill me. The Green Bay quarterback fumbled on the first possession in potential field goal range; and then on the second possession, Rodgers threw a terrible interception when the Packers were driving. To add insult to injury, Green Bay decided not to try to other potential field goals that would have given Crosby points.

This game was frustrating because I made a change late in the week to bench Hines Ward and to start Devin Hester against the Lions. I figured the Bears would score a ton of points and Hester might have a big game. It turned out he put up 0 points and Hines came through with a solid game for the Steelers. That move hurt.

During this week, I have major roster problems because of the byes. Right now, I have to start Matt Cassel at quarterback and I do not have a kicker on one team. I do get Tony Gonzalez back in my line-up and I figure to start Marshawn Lynch this week to hopefully solidify one running back situation, but this season could be me just donating money if I can't get a couple of big wins this week.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 4

2009-10-01T15:09:00.000-07:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. Byes start this week in the NFL, so there are only 14 games to pick. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted October 1 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

CHICAGO 10 Detroit - Detroit
Cincinnati 5.5 CLEVELAND - Cincinnati
HOUSTON 9 Oakland - Oakland
INDY 10.5 Seattle - Indianapolis
Tennessee 3 JACKSONVILLE - Tennessee
NY Giants 8.5 KANSAS CITY - NY Giants
NEW ENGLAND 2 Baltimore - Baltimore
WASHINGTON 7 Tampa Bay - Washington
Buffalo 2 MIAMI - Miami
NEW ORLEANS 7 NY Jets - New Orleans
Dallas 3 DENVER - Dallas
SAN FRAN 9.5 St. Louis - San Francisco
PITTSBURGH 6.5 San Diego - Pittsburgh
MINNESOTA 3.5 Green Bay - Minnesota

2009 NFL Picks Record: 24-24

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 3

2009-09-29T17:49:00.000-07:00

So far, I am not able to get a read on this NFL season. I am just scuffling along on my picks. This weekend I went 8-8. Ten favorites covered the spread. Clearly, I have to become a believer in Kevin Kolb, the Baltimore Ravens, and Jay Cutler.

My Fantasy Football weekend was very solid. My teams went 2-0 this weekend with very high scores. Carnell Williams, Tony Gonzalez, and Larry Johnson put up terrible numbers, but other than that my players came through in a big way. It helps that I had Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning starting at the QB position. Manning looked great in the Sunday night game. Without a dynamic running back, the Colts are going to have to throw for touchdowns in the Red Zone. Yes.

Interesting week coming up in the NFL because the bye weeks have arrived. Your bench is going to be a big factor. I am struggling with my number 2 running back in both of my leagues. It may help that I drafted Marshawn Lynch and he is finally going to be active this week after being suspended for the first 3 games. I wonder how much he will play though, because Fred Jackson has been producing for the Bills. It might be a wait-and-see approach if you own Marshawn Lynch.

One of the other pleasant surprises for me this week was the play of Eagles' back up running back LeShon McCoy. Of course, I did not start him, but with Bryan Westbrook always injured, McCoy could be valuable down the road. I also have Brent Celek the Eagles' tight end. I have been starting Owen Daniels and he has been playing well. I definitely would listen to trade offers for either Celek or Daniels. Neither one of my leagues makes many trades. Too much pride on the line and and nobody wants to look foolish.

I would like to pick up either a receiver or a running back this week, because I am not sold on Patrick Crayton and he is one of the back ups that I will need to play when my starters are on their bye weeks. He is a guy that could score some Fantasy points or be held without a reception in a game. Tough winning fantasy games with those type of guys.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 3

2009-09-24T19:40:00.000-07:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 24 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

NEW ENGLAND 4 Atlanta - New England
MINNESOTA 6.5 San Francisco - San Francisco
NY Giants 6.5 TAMPA - NY Giants
Washington 6 DETROIT - Washington
NY JETS 3 Tennessee - Tennessee
PHILADELPHIA 8 Kansas City - Kansas City
Green Bay 6.5 ST. LOUIS - Green Bay
BALTIMORE 13 Cleveland - Cleveland
HOUSTON 3.5 Jacksonville - Houston
Chicago 1.5 SEATTLE - Seattle
New Orleans 6 BUFFALO - New Orleans
Denver 1.5 OAKLAND - Denver
SAN DIEGO 6 Miami - San Diego
Pittsburgh 4 CINCINNATI - Pittsburgh
ARIZONA 2.5 Indianapolis - Indianapolis
DALLAS 9 Carolina - Carolina

2009 NFL Picks Record: 16-16

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 2

2009-09-22T16:19:00.000-07:00

Once again this week, I hovered right around .500 on my NFL picks with the spread, but the night games on Sunday and Monday put me over the top for the weekend. I picked the Giants and the Colts in those games to finish at 9-7.

In my Fantasy match-ups, I went 1-1, but with a silver lining. I scored big in the loss which could mean good things for the rest of the season. If the Chicago Bears and Jay Cutler do not start using running back Matt Forte, I am going to be in for a long season. My second highest scorer on this team is RB Mike Bell and I picked him up after the waiver wire last week. Forte was my highest draft pick and he has to play well.

All morning on Sunday, I messed with the idea of starting both Giants' running backs against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys were horrible against the run in Week 1 versus Tampa. I figured that it was too early in the season to start playing hunches; plus, if you give up a ton of yards rushing one week, the Cowboys' coaching staff probably focused on stopping the run all week against the Giants. Brandon Jacobs had below average game and Ahmad Bradshaw did not really do anything. Starting Mike Bell was my best call of the season so far.

On a positive note, T.O. scored a touchdown and could have had another long completion if he would not have dropped the pass from QB Trent Edwards. Even without probable starter Marshawn Lynch, the Bills' offense looks to be much improved. Owens should be able to have some big games this year.

In my Dallas league, my team scored its first victory of the season. However, it might have been less to do with my players than the fact that the Jets were able to contain Tom Brady who was going for the other owner. I picked up Cadillac Williams in this league and he had another solid performance for the Buccanneers. Another guy that I picked up is wide receiver Patrick Crayton. He gives me a solid back up wide receiver and this week I probably will not be making any roster moves. Hopefully, this week I can post my first line-up advice of the Fantasy season.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 2

2009-09-17T15:12:00.000-07:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 17 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right.
*Home team is in capital letters.

ATLANTA 6 Carolina - Atlanta
Minnesota 9.5 DETROIT - Minnesota
GREEN BAY 9 Cincinnati - Green Bay
TENNESSEE 6.5 Houston - Houston
KANSAS CITY 3 Oakland - Kansas City
New England 3.5 NY JETS - New England
PHILADELPHIA Pick New Orleans - Philadelphia
WASHINGTOn 9.5 St. Louis - St. Louis
JACKSONVILLE 3 Arizona - Jacksonville
BUFFALO 5 Tampa Bay - Buffalo
Pittsburgh 3 CHICAGO - Pittsburgh
SAN DIEGO 3 Baltimore - Ravens
DENVER 3 Cleveland - Denver
DALLAS 2.5 NY Giants - NY Giants
SAN FRANCISCO 1.5 Seattle - Seattle
Indianapolis 3 MIAMI - Indianapolis

2009 NFL Picks Record: 7-9

Fantasy Wrap-Up - NFL Week 1

2009-09-15T16:29:00.000-07:00

The weekend could not have started worse for me with losses in the first 5 games of my NFL Week 1 picks. Luckily, I was able to bounce back on Sunday and I felt good going into last night's Monday night games. I picked both favorites and lost both games to finish Week 1 at 7-9.

My Fantasy teams were worse. I lost both my games this weekend. In my Dallas league, Vincent Jackson's touchdown late against the Raiders gave my opponent a 5 point victory in a close contest. I needed Randy Moss to score one of those last minute Patriot touchdowns. Clearly, Beanie Wells is not the answer at the number 2 running back slot.

In the Atlanta league, my team put up the least amount of points. I was counting on Aaron Rodgers to play big and he came up with one of the worst Fantasy totals of his career. Matt Forte was another major disappointment. If the Bears are not going to use Forte, they are in for a long season. Hopefully, Forte will get a lot more carries and receptions next week.

In real life and in fantasy football, you really cannot feel good when you are counting on wide receivers Terrell Owens and Anquan Boldin. I think Owens can bounce back, but the Bills have to at least give him some targets. I might have been equally as frustrated as Owens during last night's game.

Boldin is a whole other story. Boldin did not practice much last week and I checked the Cardinals' beat writers all week. Most said that he doubted he would play. Boldin even was quoted as saying that he did not want to play and risk missing more time by re-injuring his hamstring. I drafted the other Cardinals' receiver Steve Breaston as a handcuff for Boldin. So, on Sunday, I made the switch. Breaston at least had been practicing. Bad move. Boldin played and Breaston was inactive. Boldin did not play well and the Cardinals look like they might be a victim of the Super Bowl loser jinx.

Luckily, my team played so badly this week that I think I get the first pick in the waiver wire. If that is the case, I will be picking up Cadillac Williams. I might need a Lou Holtz pep talk even though it did not help the Ohio State Buckeyes this weekend.

2009 NFL Picks - Week 1

2009-09-10T16:29:00.000-07:00

I will attempt again this year to pick every NFL game with a point spread. These point spreads are taken from Danny Sheridan’s Odds posted September 9 in USA Today. I usually try to post my picks for the week on Thursday night or Friday morning. For Thursday games, I will either make the pick or post my pick to Twitter feed on the right hand column. Enjoy.

Favorites are listed on the left, underdogs on the right
*Home team is in capital letters.

PITTSBURGH 6 Tennessee - Pittsburgh
ATLANTA 4 Miami - Miami
BALTIMORE 13 Kansas City - Kansas City
Philadelphia 1 CAROLINA - Carolina
CINCINNATI 4 Denver - Cincinnati
Minnesota 4 CLEVELAND - Minnesota
HOUSTON 5 New York Jets - Houston
INDY 7 Jacksonville - Jacksonville
NEW ORLEANS 13 Detroit - New Orleans
Dallas 6 TAMPA BAY - Dallas
ARIZONA 6.5 San Francisco - San Francisco
NY GIANTS 6.5 Washington - NY Giants
SEATTLE 8.5 St. Louis - Seattle
GREEN BAY 3.5 Chicago - Green Bay
NEW ENGLAND 10.5 Buffalo - New England
San Diego 9.5 OAKLAND - San Diego

2009 NFL Picks: 0-0
2008 NFL Picks: 134-114-8
2008 NFL Playoff Picks: 8-3

Fantasy Football: Roster Analysis for My Dallas League

2009-09-03T18:19:00.000-07:00

I play in two fantasy football leagues. My Dallas league has been in existence for six glorious seasons and there has not been much owner turnover. I always do an annual predicted order of finish with some roster analysis just for the love of Fantasy Football. The main goal is to fire some people up so they will make a bunch of transactions. Lots of transactions mean more money for the winning owner and I figure that pays for my Christmas gifts for 2009. Good luck and enjoy:

12. Walton’s House of Pizza – Showering and changing diapers during your Fantasy draft is usually a sign that you are just not into this league. This guy just has so much going for him right now—great family, sweet job, Kenyon Hall of Fame induction. Really, I did not even look at the roster and just made the team finish in last place out of spite and jealousy. I am not a believer in DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, or LenDale White. Fasano could score two touchdowns or have 1 catch on any given Sunday. This receiving corps worries me. The only bad part of this whole deal is I know that the owner is not going to make 10-15 transactions trying to get better. Playoffs? Say the word in your best Jim Mora impersonation.

11. DRock – Please take 10-15 seconds and upload a helmet logo for this great team name! You could go with the logo for the Greenhill Lady Hornets. I like the strategy of taking top tier wide receivers early on, and I would have taken Fitzgerald if you had not drafted him right before me, but after the first two rounds did you take a few OxyContin? Your quarterbacks are suspect and your running backs are hopes and dreams. Kind of like you’re your old roommate’s love life. Benson should have a good year, but he has never rushed for a 1,000 yards in his career. He is one alcohol binge and boat ride on the Ohio River from ruining your whole season. The great thing for the other owners in this league is that you are going to have to make about 23 transactions just to make it through the schedule. Playoff chance = none.

10. Rain City FC – Best helmet in this league by a wide margin, but how do you explain to school kids what happened in Brentwood that fatal night? I was waiting for this owner to draft Vince Young or Joe Gilliam in round 16, but that might have been over the top. Another year of McNabb as your starting QB? McNabb might be real life and fantasy football kryptonite. Very thin at running back and I absolutely hate your wide receiver corps except for Steve Smith. Eagles’ defense probably will not be the same either without the dearly departed Jim Johnson. Sorry, the owner’s smooth operator presence with the ladies of Seattle cannot get this team over the hump and into the playoffs. Is Seattle depressing?

9. Arrrrt – Very improved helmet team logo, but that name, ugh! I mean you are probably the most hip and happening guy at your high school, but who is the competition someone might ask. This team is by far the strongest you have ever had in this league. Rodgers, Barber, and starting wide receivers are studs. If A-Rodge stays healthy, he might lead the league in fantasy scoring. Solid running back depth. Tim Hightower might not produce a ton of yards, but he will get touches in the Red Zone. You have to be worried about your defense, back up wide receivers, and your kickers, but if you are relying on those guys as difference makers you would be in trouble anyway. This team is definitely a playoff contender.

8. Maurice Clarett Football Club – Remember when Clarett was leading OSU to a national title? Now, he is applying decals to road signs in the state penitentiary. I guess life can be worse. Nice pick of Jonathan Stewart in the late rounds. He seems to be getting healthier and will score some touchdowns. Brees is going to have a monster season. Solid duo of Tomlinson and Sproles, but running back looks like a weak spot if Tomlinson cannot carry the load and Philip Rivers refuses to pass him the football. A couple of former Ohio State wide receivers are great for leadership and locker room presence, but I might be worried about Santonio smoking joints in his car during the season. Brees makes you a contender for the playoffs, but if he gets hurt…

7. The Dawg Pound – Is this owner a Browns’ fan? I feel so badly for Browns’ fans that it is hard for me to right anything negative. Good thing because this roster is stacked with players. There are some big questions marks though: Does Steven Jackson care anymore? Is Tony Romo girl crazy again already? Will Brandon Marshall do anything this year or will he pout all year? Does Westbrook frustrate everyone by not practicing and then playing great on Sundays? Is Boldin happy or sad? Does Lee Evans wilt or flourish opposite Terrell Owens? Can Coach Rex Ryan duplicate his defensive touch with his new Jets’ defense? This team should be a playoff team, but I just came up with those questions in about 30 seconds. The answers might all be negative and that probably does not bode well.

6. Sherm-pups – The defending champion is the champ until someone knocks them off. Enjoy it young man. The Dude Abides. This roster is kind of like the Erin Andrews’ nude video for me. It looked better with its clothes on and when I undressed it the roster kind of fell short of my expectations. Warner had a magical season last year, but can he do it again? MJD is getting a ton of hype, but will he mail in games when Jacksonville starts losing? Jamal Lewis is old. Schaub is soft. Kellen Winslow is crazy—staph infection will do that to you. I like the Glen Coffee draft pick a ton, but will that win you many Fantasy games? Sherm-pups has the experience, coaching acumen, and downright orneriness to make a playoff run.

5. Laser Dick – Wearing two hats as an owner and commissioner is so difficult, so cut this guy some slack. I do wonder how Legally Blonde keeps getting the #1 pick year after year…must have incriminating photographs or something. Great picks at the end of the 1st round and beginning of the 2nd round. I also like Larry Johnson this year even though most people don’t. Who else do the Chiefs have? Oh yeah, you made a nice handcuff selection of Jamal Charles. Hated the Domenick Hixon pick, but you got great value from Chris Henry and Devery Henderson. Both those guys were on my “like” list. Having T.O. on any team is scary, but the women he dates on his reality TV show are very hot, so that balances things out. This team makes the playoffs.

4. Legally Blonde – This organization is like the Patriots. Very solid. Creative team name and cool helmet logo. Lost amidst the criticism of the selections at quarterback is that the owner had a superb draft. On the first play of the game Monday, Adrian Peterson took his first carry 75 yards the other night for a touchdown. Steelers’ defense is simply the best. Garrard was a top ten Fantasy QB in 2008. He is one of the few QBs likely to score rushing touchdowns. The two question marks have to be juggling the starting QB each week. All three are inconsistent and picking the right match up will be huge. Big Ben falsely accused without a doubt. Secondly, the back-ups are all young and unproven. They have big upside, but will they come through when Peterson misses three games with injuries? Peterson alone should get you to the playoffs.

3. Exxon Valdez – With a team name commemorating one of the worst oil tanker disasters in history, you might think this football club would sink after last season. Not so fast my friend. The Exxon roster is probably the deepest in the league. Brady is back. I like Matt Forte a ton. He might score about 20 TDs this year. Late round picks yielded a ton of value at the receiver positions. I was hoping to get Lance Moore at some point. Plus, I think Derrick Ward is going to have over 1,000 yards this year for Tampa Bay. Greg Jennings is vastly underrated in Fantasy. If this team does not make the playoffs, you cannot blame the GM. Blame the coach.

2. MK in Buckhead – Please come up with a new team name to match your sweet helmet. Here are some choices—Lebanese Lovers, Beirut Boys, Real Estate Warriors. All that you need to know about the unpredictable nature of Fantasy Football is that MK was the runner-up in last season. Looking at this roster, there is no doubt in my mind that MK is taking HGH or that he hired a Fantasy Football draft consultant. His Brandon Jacobs pick from two years ago would have been great this season. Wow, this is an explosive looking team. I like Matt Ryan, Ocho, Andre, Owen Daniels, Leon Washington, Anthony Gonzalez, Shiancoe (very large if you know what I mean), Percy Harvin, and Michael Bush. This roster is stacked. What could possibly go wrong? Possibly, a title contender.

1. Super Steelers – It is hard for me to be objective here, but this helmet is unmatched in professional sports. I have never like Peyton Manning, but this year the Colts’ signal caller is flying so far under the radar that I expect him to have a monster season. The Colts are going to have trouble scoring rushing TDs which should make Manning’s value even higher. Some might question the running backs on this team, but Brandon Jacobs is staring at a 15 touchdown season. Do not forget that last year after 10 games the Giants were the highest scoring team in the NFL. Jacobs should pick up some yards from the departed Derrick Ward as well. I hate the Ravens, but these guys always score defensive TDs. The whole key to this team might be whether or not Chris “Beanie” Wells shows up this year. I am pretty confident. Look for this team in the Kellen Winslow Friendship League Championship Game.

Living In a Fantasy World: 5 Quick Draft Tips

2009-08-22T10:44:00.000-07:00

Fantasy drafts are similar to the old saying about the Thursday of a Major golf tournament. You cannot win your Fantasy League on draft night, but you might draft so badly that you are never a factor in your Fantasy League. Players are going to get injured or benched and you are going to have to make trades or waiver wire pick ups in order to make the playoffs and win your league. However, a draft with value players sets you up for a great start to the season.

For reference, I play in a couple of different 12 team leagues with a 16 round draft. We do not use flex players or Individual Defensive Players, so those are not covered in this article. Here are five quick draft tips that I use in my Fantasy Draft preparation.

1. Check out the Average Draft Positions for your main player targets. If you are like me, you do not have time to research all kinds of statistics before your draft. I usually spend about two or three hours actually making draft lists. ADP, Average Draft Position, is the best indicator of where players are going all over the country. You see the value that many other people are putting on each player.

In 2008 Fantasy drafts, Kurt Warner probably was not drafted in many leagues, but you might have had a gut feeling he was going to start for the Arizona Cardinals. It would have been a bad pick to draft Warner high, but if you knew you wanted him in round 14 as your backup quarterback, you could wait and fill out your roster with better players at the other positions. ADP is available on nearly all quality Fantasy Football web sites. If you only look at a couple statistics (touchdowns scored last year, total yards, etc.), ADP definitely needs to be one of them.

2. Make your own player Sleeper list with a concentration on some rookies. Everyone knows the best players, but you have to separate yourself by getting value in the later rounds. I make myself a list of 20 players that I know will be available in the later rounds. Every year there are rookies that make a big impact on Fantasy Football. Last year, Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans was a major contributor. Matt Forte, the Chicago Bears’ running back, was a Sleeper pick that helped someone win their league. One guy I really like this year is Jeremy Macklin of the Philadelphia Eagles. On offense, the Eagles spread the football around to all of their skill players, so Macklin is going to get some touches in the Red Zone.

3. Do a mock draft by positions like RB, QB, or TE. You really cannot do a mock draft by player, because of the unpredictability of other people in your Fantasy league. Someone may take a kicker in the first round! I saw that happen once. Plus, time is a factor. Very few people have the time to do an entire mock draft for Fantasy Football, but you quickly can do a round by round player position draft. This gives you a simple draft strategy to follow.

You should think unconventionally with your position order. Running backs are very important, but quarterbacks have led my leagues in scoring the past few seasons. If you have a middle pick in the first round, I definitely consider taking Tom Brady or Drew Brees. If you have bookend picks at the end of the first and beginning of the second round, you might take the best two running backs available or throw in one of the best wide receivers. Getting your top four draft selections correct is vital to having a winning Fantasy team.

For example, figure out in which round you want to take a QB, RB, or Wide Receiver. You may think that the wide receiver position is deeper than running back. If so, you might want to draft four running backs in the first six rounds of the draft. Make a list for all twelve rounds and try to stick to it. In later rounds, you can have RB/WR. Save your kicker for last, but I like to draft my starting defense in an earlier round, because I just take one defense. I know they are going to play each week. No chance of injury! This will help you focus and fill out your roster with quality players at ever position.

4. Know the Vultures and Handcuffs of your starting running backs. Handcuffs are back up running backs that can step right in for an NFL team, start, and produce Fantasy points. Vultures are other running backs on the same team as your starter that steal touchdowns away from your player. Running backs with known Vultures might lose some of their Fantasy impact.

The Carolina Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart is a big time Vulture. The Titans Lendale White is a touchdown Vulture. Teams that go with a bigger goal line running back are dangerous to your starter. Michael Bush of the Oakland Raiders is sure to steal some TDs from Darren McFadden. You might remember Jerome Bettis as the ultimate touchdown stealer for the Steelers a few seasons ago.

If you have the first pick and draft Adrian Peterson, you should look to draft Chester Taylor as Peterson’s handcuff in a later round. Peterson is going to miss a few games with injury. Another running back whose back up will earn a bunch of touches is the Colts’ Joseph Addai. If you draft Addai and are expecting to start him every Sunday, you need to know who is back up is. You might have to take the handcuff running back earlier than you want to but it will be worth it.

5. Pay attention to the Offensive Coordinators and their reputations. Everyone knows that the Saints are going to throw a bunch and score a ton of points. For that reason, the Saints’ skill players have more value than say the Chicago Bears with Ron Turner calling the plays. The Bears’ conservative offense makes Jay Cutler’s Fantasy value much lower this year.

Another example is New England. The Patriots have a new O-Coordinator this year. Will the Patriots throw for touchdowns in the Red Zone like the past few years or will they run the ball more for touchdowns? Their offense should be more potent with QB Tom Brady back, but there is some doubt there. Some teams whose players are more valuable based on their coaching philosophy are the Saints, Patriots, Cardinals, Falcons, Eagles, Cowboys, and believe it or not the Kansas City Chiefs.

Blogging from the Blackberry

2009-03-18T17:49:00.000-07:00

I just got a new Blackberry and I want to post to blogger from this phone. Did it work?

Super Bowl Prediction: Steelers Defense Dominates

2009-01-30T09:57:00.000-08:00

Steelers -7 Cardinals

Two weeks ago, I picked both NFL conference championship games correctly and I am now 8-2 on picks in the playoffs. This Super Bowl pick is very easy for me to make. I am taking the Steelers to win and cover the 7 point spread.

This pick is easy because I am a Steelers fan. Going into this season in my predictions column, I had the Steelers playing the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. Mostly that pick was based on my feeling that Ben Roethlisberger was going to have a monster season (I even took Big Ben as my starting quarterback in Fantasy Football and that did not go so well). In 2007, he was the 2nd best quarterback to Tom Brady in the NFL

The Patriots were the team that most worried me as a fan. During this decade, the Patriots have been the Steelers’ nemesis during a few playoff runs. In fact, the Patriots were able to beat the Steelers even when Brady was injured and Drew Bledsoe had to play in the 2nd half of the AFC championship game a few years back. When Brady was injured in Week 1, I felt good about the Steelers and their Super Bowl chances, if they could survive their brutal schedule and make the playoffs.

However, Big Ben had an okay if not mediocre season statistics wise. He played well in the 4th quarters of the big regular season contests, but he was not the decisive factor I thought he would be. Instead, the Steelers defense took their level of play to a whole different stratosphere this year. I argue that the defense is not getting enough respect and attention during the Super Bowl hype. This unit only gave up 300 yards in a game once during the season. That is unprecedented in NFL history.

James Harrison, the NFL defensive player of the year, barely has been mentioned by any analysts as a factor for this game. He has had a quiet playoff run, but look for him to have a prominent role in Sunday’s game. Harrison will team up with Lamar Woodley and Lawrence Timmons to harass and sack Kurt Warner all afternoon. If it was not for the expert blitz pick ups by Willis McGahee of the Ravens, Timmons would have killed Joe Flacco on a couple of plays in the AFC championship game. Timmons is one player that the Cardinals have to account for on obvious blitzing and passing downs.

Big Ben will play well and the defense will dominate. My prediction is the game is close in the first half, but the Steelers win the game 34-14.

2008 Playoff Picks: 8-2
2008 Regular Season Picks: 134-114-8
2008 Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

NFL - Conference Championship Games

2009-01-16T05:36:00.000-08:00

My Picks

Eagles -4 @Cardinals – Cardinals

Last week, I just had a feeling that the Cardinals were going to win that game and I actually picked them to win. Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald are the best passing combination left in the playoffs. The Arizona crowd was a factor in the Wild Card round against Atlanta and the crowd will be even louder this week. If I were an Eagles fan, I would be worried about Brian Westbrook. He struggled last week and now he is not practicing again. Westbrook was the best player on the field when these teams played on Thanksgiving Day. With Edgerrin James running hard, Tim Hightower, and J.J. Arrington, I think the Cardinals have the better running backs at this point. The Cards are way better at wide receiver. Eagles’ safety Brian Dawkins is the X factor. He has been all over the field in their last four games. The Eagles defense is better, but the Cardinals are athletic on that side of the football. In the playoffs, the Cardinals have beaten the better teams. The biggest key is if Kurt Warner has some time to throw the football. I think he will. Look for Warner to have a big day and to pass for over 300 yards in an amazing, improbable Cardinals victory, 31-21.

@ Steelers -6 Ravens – Steelers

Although I think this spread is way too high for this third match up of the season, I am sticking with the Steelers. In the previous two games this season between these teams, the Steelers won on a field goal in overtime and on a questionable touchdown call by the officials in the final minutes of the game. The teams could not have played much closer. I am picking the Steelers because I give them the edge over the Ravens in several areas. The Steelers are better at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. The Ravens’ offensive line is better.

On the defensive side of the ball, I think the teams are even except that Baltimore has a better secondary. In the Special Teams phase, I give a slight advantage to the Ravens, but I like Jeff Reed over Matt Stover, because of how tricky it is to kick longer field goals at Heinz Field. Reed has a 50-yarder at Heinz and I think that is way out of Stover’s range at this point in his career. The cold weather will not affect either team. After watching the Ravens play the Titans, the Steelers can run the football on this team. The Titans moved the football up and down the field, but their turnovers killed them. Look for the Steelers to limit turnovers, score a few touchdowns, and win this game, 27-13.

Playoff Picks: 6-2
Regular Season Picks: 134-114-8
Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

Wrap Up - Week 19

2009-01-12T19:42:00.000-08:00

My Picks

@Titans -3 Ravens

Give Titans’ running back Chris Johnson the first 100 yard game against the Ravens this year, and give Tennessee the win.

Ravens win this one 13-10. During the first half of this game, I thought this sentence from my preview of this game was going to be prophetic. Then, the Ravens got physical on defense and Chris Johnson disappeared. He was huddled in his parka on the sideline for the entire 2nd half. The Titans dominated this game in total yardage and other statistics, but it was the ability of the Ravens’ defense to force turnovers. Algae Crumpler’s fumble near the goal line was a back-breaker for the Titans.

@Panthers -10 Cardinals

Kurt Warner and company will have no fear. It sounds like Anquan Boldin is going to play. Edgerrin James is happy again. I am starting to feel the Cardinals’ momentum. There is always an exception that proves a rule and a Cardinals’ win will prove that they cannot win on the East Coast.

Cards win this game 33-13. I felt good about this pick on Friday night, but I felt great about the pick when I saw that no one on Fox or CBS picked the Cards. Boldin did not play, but the Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald more than made up for his absence. Kurt Warner played his normal game, but Jake Delhomme was out of sync the whole game. He was awful. Once again, turnovers were the big story of this game and Delhomme had a fumble and five interceptions. A remarkable win for the Cardinals.

@Giants -4 Eagles

The Eagles are the flavor of the month in these NFL playoffs. Forget about it. Forget about the absence of Plaxico Burress. The Giants are going to manhandle these guys.

I am not sure I could have been more wrong about this game. The Eagles won 23-11. Eli Manning played about as well as Jake Delhomme played last night. Manning could not throw into the wind at all. The Eagles’ defensive line played better than the Giants’ offensive line. The Eagles stopped them on short yardage several times in the 4th quarter. Eagles play at the Cardinals next week. Are you kidding me?

@Steelers -6 Chargers

The key match-up in this game is not one player versus another player. The Steelers’ Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau has to find a way to stop Chargers’ running back Darren Sproles. LeBeau only has about 50 years of experience in the NFL, so I believe he will come up with a game plan to stop Sproles.

The Steelers won this game 35-24. I have been watching the NFL for about 25 years and I have never seen a quarter like the 3rd quarter in this game. The Steelers ran every play except one. Sproles was held in check until a long TD pass in garbage time. The Chargers had two turnovers--a muffed punt and an interception. The most valuable player for the Steelers was running back Willie Parker. Parker had over 130 yards rushing. He looked better and healthier in this game than he has looked all season. Next week’s game with the Ravens is going to be fun to watch.

Playoff Picks: 6-2
Regular Season: 134-114-8
Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

NFL - Divisional Playoff Games

2009-01-09T19:07:00.000-08:00

My Picks

@Titans -3 Ravens – Titans
I like almost everything about the Ravens. Their running back tandem of McClain and McGahee is formidable. Their run defense and the playmakers they have on defense are unbelievable. They have played a tough schedule and their only losses all year are to the best teams in the NFL. The two problems I have with them are that they are starting a rookie quarterback and that they are playing the early game on Saturday after a short work week. The lack of preparation time and rest is going to come back to haunt them in this game. I am not a big fan of Kerry Collins, but he has played better than Joe Flacco this season. Give Titans’ running back Chris Johnson the first 100 yard game against the Ravens this year, and give Tennessee the win.

@Panthers -10 Cardinals - Cardinals
Surprisingly, this game is the hardest to pick. That 10 point spread is daunting in an NFL playoff game. The Panthers should blow the Cardinals out. They are undefeated at home this season. WR Steve Smith is playing at an All Pro level (does anyone even remember or care that he punched a teammate in training camp and missed two games?). The problem for the Panthers is that they played the Cardinals a few weeks ago. The Cardinals really should have won that game. Kurt Warner and company will have no fear. It sounds like Anquan Boldin is going to play. Edgerrin James is happy again. I am starting to feel the Cardinals’ momentum. There is always an exception that proves a rule and a Cardinals’ win will prove that they cannot win on the East Coast. Take the Cards and do not forget about the 10 points.

@Giants -4 Eagles - Giants
The Eagles are the flavor of the month in these NBA playoffs. Forget about it. Forget about the absence of Plaxico Burress. The Giants are going to manhandle these guys. The key player to me is the Giants’ Brandon Jacobs. In limited time in the last game against the Eagles, he averaged over 5 yards per carry. When intra-divisional teams play that know each other so well, offensive execution is vital. The Giants offensive line is a disciplined unit. They will make their blocks and Jacobs will pound the ball between the tackles.

@Steelers -6 Chargers – Steelers
The key match-up in this game is not one player versus another player. The Steelers’ Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau has to find a way to stop Chargers’ running back Darren Sproles. LeBeau only has about 50 years of experience in the NFL, so I believe he will come up with a game plan to stop Sproles. Sproles reminds me of old school Browns’ running back Eric Metcalf. Fast and elusive in space, but if you can get a hand on him he will go down. The Steelers are the best tackling team in the NFL. Sproles might find out exactly what it means to be a featured back in the NFL. Plus, I cannot take another week of Philip Rivers. Rivers needs to look out for linebackers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley.

Playoff Picks: 4-0
Regular Season: 134-114-8
Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

Wrap Up - Wild Card Weekend

2009-01-04T16:52:00.000-08:00

My Picks

Falcons -2 @Arizona – Arizona

*Michael Turner has not played great on the road this year. If the Cardinals can stop the run and contain Turner, they will win this game.

Arizona did exactly what I thought they needed to do to win the game. Turner only had about 40 yards rushing. Matt Ryan made a few costly mistakes. Arizona won this game 30-24 behind Kurt Warner and a great performance from running back Edgerrin James.

Colts -1 @Chargers – Chargers

*The Chargers’ familiarity with Peyton Manning is vital. I am not a big fan of Philip Rivers, but I like the dynamic duo of Tomlinson and Sproles.

Chargers won this game 23-17 with a touchdown in overtime. I definitely am glad that I mentioned Sproles in my preview of this game. Sproles was the best player on the field. I also thought the crowd would be a factor. Despite Manning’s post game assertion that the crowd did not affect the Colts, the offense had several penalties in the first half.

Ravens -3 @Dolphins – Ravens

*Usually, I would go with the better quarterback, Chad Pennington of the Dolphins, but I still believe in the Ravens’ defense. Safety Ed Reed always makes big plays.

Behind a stifling defense, the Ravens won this game 27-9. Ed Reed made two huge interceptions. The Dolphins seemed like they were going to make a comeback, but Pennington fumbled a hand-off on a reverse. That play stopped a potential touchdown drive. The Titans are in real trouble against these Ravens next week.

Eagles -3 @Vikings – Eagles

*The Eagles have a huge advantage at quarterback, and surprisingly, the Eagles have a better group of wide receivers and pass catching running backs.

The Eagles won this game 26-14. Donovan McNabb was not great today. The Eagles really made a lot of mistakes, but they were clearly the best team on the field. In the 2nd half, the big play was 71 yard touchdown on a screen pass to Brian Westbrook.

Playoff Picks: 4-0
Regular Season Picks: 134-114-8
Fantasy Player Picks: 90-62-5

NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Weekend

2009-01-01T17:58:00.000-08:00

My Picks

Falcons -2 @Arizona – Arizona
I live in Atlanta, so I have been following the Falcons very closely this season. They have played great. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and the offense have received much of the praise, but the Falcons’ defense has performed way above expectations. However, the Cardinals are going to win this game. The Cardinals are just a little better in some key areas. I give the edge to the Cardinals at the quarterback position, at head coach, and on the offensive line. Michael Turner has not played great on the road this year. If the Cardinals can stop the run and contain Turner, they will win this game.

Eagles -3 @Vikings – Eagles
The Eagles are the hottest team in the NFC. They survived a very tough schedule this season. Coach Andy Reid is Coach Brad Childress’ mentor. He knows how Childress likes to call plays and so does Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. The Eagles have a huge advantage at quarterback, and surprisingly, the Eagles have a better group of wide receivers and pass catching running backs. Playoff experience is very important and the Eagles still have players from their long playoff runs earlier this decade. This game looks like a two touchdown win for the Eagles.

Ravens -3 @Dolphins – Ravens
This game is a rematch of a regular season game won by the Ravens. I think this game is going to be low scoring and a very close victory for the Ravens. The Dolphins have benefited from a very easy schedule in their division and against the NFC West. On the other hand, the Ravens have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. Usually, I would go with the better quarterback, Chad Pennington of the Dolphins, but I still believe in the Ravens’ defense. Safety Ed Reed always makes big plays.

Colts -1 @Chargers – Chargers
The Chargers’ crowd last week against Denver was as loud as any I had watched all season. The crowd is going to be a major factor in this game. I also think the Chargers are the younger, more athletic team. The Chargers’ secondary matches up very well with the Colts’ wide receivers. The best player for the Colts this weekend probably will be TE Dallas Clark. He is the key player the Chargers must stop. These two teams have played several games over the past few seasons. The Chargers’ familiarity with Peyton Manning is vital. I am not a big fan of Philip Rivers, but I like the dynamic duo of Tomlinson and Sproles. The Chargers defy the odds and win this game.

Wrap Up - Week 17

2008-12-29T15:41:00.000-08:00

Start’em or Sit’em

*Did not make any player picks for NFL Week 17, 2008

2008 Overall Total: 90-62-5

My Picks

Wins: Raiders, Steelers, Colts, Rams, Bengals, Cardinals, Chargers
Losses: Bills, Bears, Vikings, Panthers, Jaguars, Jets, Cowboys
Push: Lions, Redskins
Total: 7-7-2

2008 Overall Total: 134-114-8 (with a point spread)

NFL - Week 17

2008-12-27T14:13:00.000-08:00

My Picks

@Buccaneers -13 Raiders - Raiders
@Steelers -10.5 Browns - Steelers
Titans -3 @Colts - Colts
@Falcons -14.5 Rams - Rams
Patriots -6.5 @Bills - Bills
@Packers -10 Lions - Lions
@Texans -3 Bears - Bears
@Bengals -3 Chiefs - Bengals
@Vikings -6.5 Giants - Vikings
Panthers -3 @Saints - Panthers
@49ers -3 Redskins - Redskins
@Ravens -12.5 Jaguars - Jaguars
@Cardinals -6 Seahawks - Cardinals
@Eagles -1.5 Cowboys - Cowboys
@Jets -2.5 Dolphins - Jets
@Chargers -9 Broncos - Chargers

Wrap Up - Week 16

2008-12-23T15:27:00.000-08:00

Start’em

Matt Schaub, Texans. Just when you think that you have the NFL figured out, a week unfolds like Week 16. Teams that should have played well lost their games. Schaub was 19-36 for 255 yards with one interception. He probably killed a lot of Fantasy owners that played him as the hot quarterback. The Raiders secondary shut down Andre Johnson as well.

Cedric Benson, Bengals. The Bengals only threw the ball nine times in the entire game. That was a perfect set up for Benson to have a great game. He ended up with a career high 171 yards on 38 carries. A fumble cost him a Fantasy point, but he still ended up with 10 total Fantasy points.

Pierre Thomas, Saints. Many analysts were picking the Lions to upset the Saints this week, but the Saints’ offense was unstoppable. They converted 11-12 on 3rd down conversions. Thomas was a big part of the offense with 13 carries for 77 yards with a touchdown and a fumble. He also had 3 catches for 26 yards.

Tashard Choice, Cowboys. The Cowboys have been struggling, but they are playing Choice who is their third string tailback. Choice did not even see the field in the early part of the season. He was great against the Steelers and Ravens in the past two weeks. He had 17 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown. He also chipped in with 7 catches for 25 yards. He had 13 total Fantasy points.

Kevin Curtis, Eagles. I thought Curtis would be able to play even with his injured calf. He has struggled all year with injuries and a concussion. The Eagles threw the football a ton on Sunday, so Curtis might have been able to get some yards if he was healthy. This was probably my worst pick of the season.

Sit’em

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Rodgers finished the game 24-39 for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns with one interception. Rodgers lost another game, but he had a great year in Fantasy football. He scored 14 Fantasy points in the game last night, and that was actually a below average game for him. Rodgers will be one of the first QBs taken in next year’s draft.

Eli Manning, Giants. In a typical performance, Manning played mistake free and made some clutch plays. He was 17-27 for 181 yards and a touchdown. He also converted a clutch 2-point conversion to wide receiver Domenick Hixon. His 12 Fantasy points is an average game for Manning this season.

Clinton Portis, Redskins. Portis was supposed to play this type of game last week after he had a little war of words with Coach Jim Zorn. There was a question if he would play against the Eagles. He played and played very well. Portis had 81 combined rushing and receiving yards and a touchdown for 11 Fantasy points—a loss for me.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. When the score of this game flashed on the screen, I figured that Brown had a monster game. The Dolphins scored 38 points in the game. Brown played a role in the Wildcat formation, but he only had 53 combined rushing and receiving yards.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. Whenever Roethlisberger throws for over 300 yards, it seems like the Steelers lose the game. They lost to the Titans, but both wide receivers had big games. Holmes came up with his best game of the season. He had 5 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown.

Totals: 4-6 (Overall 90-62-5)

My Picks

Wins: Bengals, Saints, Patriots, Giants
Losses: Jaguars, Cowboys, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Niners, Steelers, Jets, Broncos, Eagles, Vikings, Texans, Packers
Total: 4-12 (Overall 127-107-6)

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 16

2008-12-20T11:54:00.000-08:00

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Matt Schaub, Texans. The Texans are holding true to form. They play themselves out of contention, then they string a few wins together at the end of the year. Look for them to win again this week against the hapless Raiders. Schaub has the offensive weapons around him—he has a big time receiver, a sure-handed tight end, and a multi-dimensional running back in Steve Slaton. He should have a big day in Oakland.

Cedric Benson, Bengals. Your Fantasy playoff game is not the best time to make risky roster moves; but if you are looking for a replacement for Brandon Jacobs or Reggie Bush, Benson is worth a hard look this week. He is coming off a big game last week. He had opportunities in the Bengals’ rushing and receiving attack. Benson’s match up against Cleveland is great this Sunday.

Pierre Thomas, Saints. Another below average season for Reggie Bush has paved the way for the emergence of Thomas as the Saints starting running back. I am sure Thomas is making Deuce McCallister look old in practice as well. Thomas is the kind of player that is so hot right now; he can lead a Fantasy team to a league championship. Look for him to have over 120 yards from scrimmage this week and at least one touchdown.

Tashard Choice, Cowboys. Any running back this has success against the vaunted Steelers’ defense earns respect around the NFL. With Marion Barber still hobbled with a dislocated toe, Choice will start this week. His match up against the tough Ravens’ defense is troubling, but the Cowboys are at home, and he is really the only healthy option at running back for O-Coordinator Jason Garrett.

Kevin Curtis, Eagles. Contrary to what that brilliant blonde Kendra from the show “The Girls Next Door” says Kevin Curtis can catch the fade pass. In fact, he caught a touchdown from Donovan McNabb last week. McNabb is brimming with confidence after Monday night’s win versus Cleveland. The Eagles could have scored several more touchdowns in that game. Against the fading Redskins, look for lots of points from the Eagles and a big Fantasy game from Curtis.

Sit’em

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Rodgers has played heroically this year. He has handled the pressure, played with pain, and performed great under pressure. All of that has not translated into wins for the Packers. Their season is over. If the Bears start quickly in this game, Packers’ back up quarterback Brian Brohm may see some action for evaluation purposes.

Eli Manning, Giants. This game is another great Sunday night match up for NBC. The Giants and Panthers still are contending for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Eli deserved his Pro Bowl selection for his performance this season, but the Panthers pass rush has started to dominate games. Eli and the Giants can win this game, but the game shapes up as a low scoring battle.

Clinton Portis, Redskins. Last week, Portis was simply being himself when called Coach Jim Zorn a “genius”. After the controversy, I figured he would come out and have a monster game against the Bengals. That didn’t happen. You have to give credit to Portis he will play injured and play through pain. The problem this week is that this is not a very good time to play a surging Eagles team. No touchdowns for Portis this week.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. I am not sure how Ronnie Brown made the AFC Pro Bowl team. The Wildcat formation is one of the most fun stories of the year in the NFL, but he has not really played that well except for a few isolated games. The Chiefs’ defense totally shut down Ladainian Tomlinson and the Chargers for almost 55 minutes of last week’s game. Look for them to contain Brown as well. The final score for this game might be something like 8-5 in favor of the Chiefs.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. Holmes needs to have a couple of break out games for the Steelers to win games in the playoffs. For some reason, he tends to disappear in road games. Add to that fact that the Titans’ secondary is one of the best in pro football and you have a recipe for a low Fantasy scoring game for Holmes. If the Steelers can get home field in the playoffs, he can make a name for himself this post season.

My Picks

Colts -6.5 @Jaguars - Jaguars
@Cowboys -4.5 Ravens - Cowboys
@Browns -3 Bengals - Bengals
Saints -7 @Lions - Saints
Dolphins -4 @Chiefs - Chiefs
@Buccaneers -3 Chargers - Buccaneers
@Patriots -8 Cardinals - Patriots
Niners -5 @Rams - Niners
Steelers -1.5 @Titans - Steelers
Jets -5 @Seahawks - Jets
@Broncos -7 Bills - Broncos
Texans -7 @Raiders - Texans
Eagles -5 @Redskins - Eagles
@Vikings -3 Falcons - Vikings
@Giants -3 Panthers - Giants
@Bears -4.5 Packers - Bears

Wrap Up - Week 15

2008-12-15T19:28:00.000-08:00

Start’em

Philip Rivers, Chargers. Despite San Diego’s terrible record, Rivers has put up some huge stats this year. He has 28 touchdowns on the season. Against the Chiefs, he was 34-48 for 346 yards 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Chargers’ 4th quarter comeback was unbelievable. It was so improbable that Terry Bradshaw on Fox gave the game to the Chiefs when he was doing the highlights.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. In this game, Pennington became the 3rd quarterback in Dolphins’ history to pass for over 3,000 yards in a season. He finished the game 12-19 for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns—13 Fantasy points which is way over his weekly average. He had a 61 yard touchdown to TE David Martin. Pennington is having an MVP type season.

Ryan Grant, Packers. This game was just another disappointing Sunday for Ryan Grant and for the Green Bay Packers. Grant had 21 rushes for 56 yards and 3 catches for 32 yards. 5 total Fantasy points is not bad for a third tier running back, but Grant was a 1st round pick in many Fantasy drafts. Packers’ GM Ted Thompson might have some explaining to do after the Packers’ finish the season under .500.

Lendale White, Titans. Maybe Lendale was distracted by the nickname controversy he stirred up this weekend. The Titans have come back down to Earth after their amazing start to the season. White ended up with only 8 carries for 26 yards. A bad loss for me this week.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. Okay, I take back my comments about Harrison. He has lost a step. Two seasons ago, you never would see this kind of performance from Harrison. He had 2 catches for 22 yards. The Colts keep winning games, but it is hard to figure out how they are doing it.

Sit’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. I have been accused of only picking players to sit based on if they are playing the Steelers’ defense. That seems like a good philosophy this year. Flacco was 11-28 for 115 yards and two interceptions. He ended up with -1 points in Fantasy football this week. The Steelers’ defense is having one of the best years in the history of the NFL.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Big Ben moved the football up and down the field against the Ravens, but he could only muster up one score for the offense. He was 22-40 for 246 yards and a touchdown. He also had 21 yards rushing for a total of 13 Fantasy points. A solid game against the tough Ravens’ defense.

Steve Slaton, Texans. The Titans kept Slaton in check for most of the day, but he was able to break a big run in the last five minutes of the game. He had good yardage totals, but he still had a below average game for his standards. Slaton finished the game with 24 carries for 100 yards and 3 catches for 15 yards. His 7 Fantasy points is way below his weekly average.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. You have to feel terrible for the Bills and Head Coach Dick Jauron. They lost this game on a freakish J.P. Losman fumble that the Jets returned for a defensive touchdown. Lynch had a big game and finished with 140 combined rushing and receiving yards for 9 Fantasy points.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. Owens finished the game with 3 catches for 38 yards. You almost have to start him every week, because he can explode for huge Fantasy point totals. The problem is that Owens rarely delivers a big game .

Totals: 5-5 (Overall 86-56-5)

My Picks

Wins: Lions, Seahawks, Niners, Texans, Vikings, Patriots, Steelers, Panthers, Cowboys, Eagles
Losses: Saints, Jets, Packers, Chargers, Redskins
Push: Falcons
Total: 10-5-1 (Overall 123-95-6)

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 15

2008-12-13T10:13:00.000-08:00

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Philip Rivers, Chargers. The statistics say that Rivers is a top 5 Fantasy football quarterback, but his play has been erratic all season. Playing him every week is like riding a roller coaster. There is no evidence for this, but I feel like the Chargers are going to make a run in these last three games and have a chance to make the playoffs. Look for Rivers to have over 250 yards and maybe a touchdown this weekend.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. Pennington is one of a handful of NFL players that should be mentioned as an MVP candidate. What if the Dolphins had Chad Henne or John Beck playing quarterback? They would be in deep trouble. The Niners have been playing better since the promotion of Mike Singletary to head coach, but the cross country trip to Miami and the South Beach night life should give the Dolphins an edge. Look for Pennington to continue his MVP caliber play with a 300 yard game this week.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Have you ever heard the term Fantasy kryptonite? That is a specific player that you keep playing or keep drafting that never plays well enough for you to win. The kind of guy that in real life plays just well enough to get the coach fired. I stayed with Grant all year and finished with a mind numbing .500 record. You know that means that Grant is going to play great these last three weeks. Combine that knowledge with his match up against the weak Jaguars run defense and you have a recipe for a big day for Grant.

Lendale White, Titans. Coach Jeff Fisher has pushed all the right buttons this year for the Titans. He has used rookie running back Chris Johnson with Lendale White to form a formidable one-two punch. Maybe White was right a couple of weeks ago when he complained about not getting the ball enough against the Jets. He had a touchdown last week and should score again this week. Even at home, the Texans always give up a lot of yards and points.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. The naysayers have been killing Marvin Harrison all year about how he has lost a step. He is coming off a severe knee injury and those injuries usually take two years to come back to full strength. Harrison is kind of like the Colts in that he has quietly started to catch touchdown as the Colts have quietly won six straight games. Everyone on the Colts’ offense should put up big numbers against the Lions. The big fear is that if the game is a blowout, Coach Dungy will pull the starters.

Sit’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. Rookie quarterbacks have been money this year. Two weeks ago, I was burned by Flacco and Matt Ryan. The problem for Flacco is that he has a terrible match up this week against the Steelers. The Steelers’ defense has not allowed any team to gain 300 total yards in a game this season. Flacco might play well enough to lead the Ravens to a win, but he will not pass for over 200 yards.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. This Steelers versus Ravens game is guaranteed to be a low scoring affair. Check the weather for this game in Baltimore before setting your line up. In cold, snowy weather, ranks your running backs higher than your quarterbacks and wide receivers. Additionally, the Ravens’ secondary has been all over the field the past two games. Baltimore’s defense only gives up an average of 7 Fantasy points to quarterbacks each week. Safety Ed Reed has about a fifty percent chance of taking an interception or fumble recovery back for a touchdown.

Steve Slaton, Texans. For a very low Fantasy draft pick, Slaton has emerged as one of the ten best rookies in 2008. Barring a late season injury, he probably will be a first or second round Fantasy pick in 2009. But, I still would not play him this week against the Titans. The Titans are going to shut down the Texans’ running attack. The only way that the Texans can win this game is if QB Matt Schaub has a monster game and throws over 40 times.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. Lynch has not been able to get into the end zone lately. He is getting some yards for the Bills in the rushing and passing attack, but he has not scored any touchdowns. The Jets’ defense is still underrated. If you take out road trips to the West Coast, the Jets are having a great year. Another problem for Lynch is the unsettled quarterback position for the Bills. J.P. Losman is terrible and Trent Edwards has lost his confidence. Look for the Bills to lose another game at New York this week.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. After watching Owens bail out on Tony Romo’s first interception against the Steelers, I understand why Romo does not count on Owens in crunch time. Romo does not know for sure that T.O. is going to run the correct pass route. Owens actually stopped running his pattern against Pittsburgh. Forget about the Cowboys for 2008—a loss to the Giants on Sunday night ends their season.

My Picks

@Bears -3 Saints - Saints
@Jets -8 Bills - Jets
@Panthers -7.5 Broncos - Panthers
@Colts -17 Lions - Lions
Packers -2 @Jaguars - Packers
@Ravens -3 Steelers - Steelers
Chargers -5.5 @Chiefs - Chargers
Seahawks -2 @Rams - Seahawks
@Dophins -6.5 Niners - Niners
@Falcons -3 Buccaneers - Falcons
Titans -3 @Texans - Texans
Redskins -6.5 @Bengals - Redskins
@Cardinals -3.5 Vikings - Vikings
Patriots -7 @Oakland - Patriots
@Cowboys -3 Giants - Cowboys
@Eagles -14 Browns - Eagles

Wrap Up - Week 14

2008-12-08T20:40:00.000-08:00

Start’em

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. When he stays healthy like this year, this guy is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. McNabb was 19-30 for 191 yards and a touchdown. He finished the game with a total of 11 Fantasy points, but more importantly for Eagles’ fans he beat the Giants to keep the team’s hopes for a playoff berth still alive.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. I knew this pick was in trouble when the highlight of Frerotte was him getting his back stretched on the training table. Frerotte left the game in the 2nd quarter with a back injury. He was 7-10 for 70 yards and two interceptions. Count this as a loss.

Frank Gore, Niners. Gore was on his way to a monster game for the Niners against the Jets. When he hurt his left ankle early in the 3rd quarter, he already had 14 rushes for 52 yards and 3 catches for 13 yards and a touchdown. Even though he did not come back into the game, his touchdown was enough to make Gore a solid start this week in Fantasy football.

Wes Welker, Patriots. When the book is written about the 2008 Patriots, Welker is going to be their team offensive MVP. He is leading the NFL in receptions and yesterday was a perfect example of how important he is to young quarterback Matt Cassell. Welker was open all over the field and finished the game with 12 catches for 134 yards. He also scored a clutch 2 point conversion for 10 total Fantasy points.

Steve Breaston, Cardinals. Something happened in the 2nd half to the Cardinals’ offense. They were moving the ball all over the place in the 1st half. Maybe, they eased off in the 2nd half. Breaston was able to score above his weekly Fantasy average this week with 7 catches for 90 yards.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. The AFC West is the most unpredictable conference in the NFL. This is probably because all of the teams are so inconsistent. LJ was terrible against Denver on Sunday. He finished the game with 11 carries for 36 yards.

Sit’em

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. Before tonight’s Monday night game, I saw a graphic that Delhomme is 7-2 in his career against Tampa Bay. Delhomme finished the game 14-20 for 173 yards and a touchdown and 2 interceptions. That is a meager total of 5 Fantasy points. The Panthers rushed for over 300 yards as a team, so Delhomme could afford an off night.

Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels, Texans. Forgive me, Schaub fans. After four weeks off, Schaub looked great in leading the Texans to a huge road win. He was 28-42 for 414 yards for 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. That is a whopping 21 Fantasy points and probably the best day of any quarterback this week. He found Kevin Walter for almost 150 of those yards.

Willie Parker, Steelers. The cold weather and poor field conditions doomed Parker to a limited role in his game versus the Cowboys. Mewelde Moore carried the biggest load in the Steelers’ running attack. Parker needs a week off to get back to close to 100%. He had 12 rushes for 25 yards and this was a good week to sit him on your bench.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. You can put a fork the Cleveland Browns—their season is done. These guys are just playing out the season. With Ken Dorsey now at quarterback, Lewis is the only player that defenses have to stop. The Titans killed him yesterday and held him to 7 rushes for 7 yards and 2 receptions for 3 yards. Sit all Browns for the rest of the Fantasy playoffs.

Total: 7-3 (Overall 81-51-5)

My Picks

Wins: Chargers, Titans, Bears, Saints, Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles, Dolphins, Niners, Steelers, Cardinals, Ravens
Losses: Bengals, Packers, Patriots, Buccaneers
Total: 12-4 (Overall 113-90-5)

Fantasy Games. My 2008 Fantasy Football season is over. I was not able to make the playoffs in either of my leagues. I finished right in the middle of the pack in a season doused with mediocrity. I really made some bad decisions in one league. For example, one week I played Jeff Garcia over Kurt Warner. Garcia had won me a game the week before and I thought he was on a hot streak. Secondly, early in the year, I had Edgerrin James and I took him out of the line up against the Jets. The Jets’ game was Edge’s best game of the year! With my last hope at a playoff berth riding on yesterday’s results, Hines Ward could not even get a point! Luckily for me, the Steelers continue to make this a great regular season.

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 14

2008-12-05T22:24:00.000-08:00

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Everyone is expecting McNabb and the Eagles to plummet back down to Earth this week against the Giants. The exact opposite is going to happen. The Eagles and McNabb are going to break through against their rivals with a 30 plus point game. Brian Westbrook and the receiving corps is finally healthy. Coach Andy Reid is great in weeks after byes and the Eagles have had a few extra days to prepare, because they played on Thanksgiving Day.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. With injuries and quarterback shuffling, you might be looking for a quarterback this week to fill in for your normal starter. Frerotte deserves a hard look as a starter, because of his match up against the Lions. This game is on the road for the Vikings, but with the apathy in Detroit, there might be more Vikings’ fans at the game. Look for Coach Brad Childress to open up the offense a little more and allow Frerotte to throw a couple of deep passes.

Frank Gore, Niners. Gore is one of these guys that gets stronger towards the end of the season when other players are breaking down and making vacation plans. For some reason, the Jets have not played well on the West coast in two previous trips this season. This game shapes up to be a low scoring affair and Gore will score two touchdowns—one rushing and one on a screen pass.

Wes Welker, Patriots. Undoubtedly, you saw the devastating hit that Welker took last week against the Steelers. He did not come back into the game after the hit, but he should be good to go this week against the Seahawks. Look for the Patriots’ offense to get back on track against a pourous Seattle defense. Welker should get plenty of targets from Matt Cassel and Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniel—maybe a touchdown this week will ease the pain of being jacked up on every TV highlight package last Sunday.

Steve Breaston, Cardinals. The Cardinals are a two touchdown favorite against the Rams and that might be a conservative estimate. My prediction is that Kurt Warner is going to throw almost 50 times in this game. The short passing game will actually set up the downfield passing game. Even though Breaston is the third wide receiver, he actually is targeted for longer passes. In this game, start Breaston and any other Cardinals offensive players that you have.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. If LJ is on your team, ride him for the rest of the Fantasy season and the playoffs. He had a monster game against the Broncos with almost 200 yards rushing when these teams played the first time. This week will be no different. Johnson is flying under the radar and playing with a chip on his shoulder. When this guy has something to prove, he plays his best football.

Sit’em

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. In Week 6 when these teams played in Tampa, Delhomme threw 3 interceptions. Last week, the Buccaneers held Drew Brees in check. It has been awhile since the Panthers played in nationally televised big game, while Tampa was in the playoffs last year. The prediction here is that the Buccaneers are going to harass Delhomme into some mistakes and they will become the first road team to get a win in the tough NFC South division.

Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels, Texans. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Texans should not be starting for your Fantasy team this week. According to a Houston Chronicle report, Schaub participated fully in practice and is going to start on Sunday. I think switching quarterbacks at this point is going to back fire on the Texans. Both of these guys probably take some snaps in a terrible road loss to the Packers.

Willie Parker, Steelers. Fast Willie’s wheels still are flat—his knee is bothering him and its affecting his running ability. He is going to split carries with Mewelde Moore and the Steelers are going with running back Gary Russell in short yardage situations. Because both defenses are playing well and Heinz Field is in terrible condition, this game is probably a low scoring contest. Sit Parker out this week.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. The Browns might not score a point this week. The only way they score is if Josh Cribbs runs back a punt or a kickoff for a touchdown. Everything is against Lewis: the Titans’ defense is great against the run; the Browns are starting the rusty Ken Dorsey (calling Dorsey a journeyman quarterback would be a compliment); the Titans’ crowd gives them great homefield advantage; and the Titans have had an extra week to get ready for the game. Sorry Browns’ fans, Titans win this game 31-0.

My Picks

@Chargers -9 Raiders - Chargers
@Saints -3 Falcons - Saints
@Colts -13.5 Bengals - Bengals
@Titans -14 Browns - Titans
@Packers -5.5 Texans - Packers
@Bears -6.5 Jaguars - Bears
@Lions Pick Vikings - Vikings
@Giants -6.5 Eagles - Eagles
@Broncos -9 Chiefs - Chiefs
@Bills -1 Dolphins - Dolphins
Patriots -4.5 @Seahawks - Patriots
Jets -3.5 @Niners - Niners
@Steelers -3 Cowboys - Steelers
@Cardinals -14 Rams - Cardinals
@Ravens -5 Redskins - Ravens
@Panthers -3 Buccaneers - Buccaneers

Wrap Up - Week 13

2008-12-01T20:34:00.000-08:00

Start’em

Trent Edwards, Bills. Losing to the Niners on Sunday was costly for the Bills. They had a chance to make up some ground in the AFC East. The Bills also lost Edwards for the second half with a groin injury. Before the injury, Edwards was 10-21 for 112 yards and 3 Fantasy points. Edwards only played in the first half, but that is still a loss.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. The Chiefs only have won twice in the past twenty games or so, but they were able to beat the Raiders behind LJ’s running and a botched fake field goal attempt by the Raiders. Johnson had a solid day with 24 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs could play a spoiler role in the final games of the season.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Not sure that anyone else was watching this game tonight, but Slaton put on a show against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are up there with the Chargers as the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year. Slaton had a monster game with two long touchdown runs on back to back carries in the 4th quarter.

Ricky Williams, Dolphins. The Dolphins won this game, but it was not pretty. The offense was unable to score against the Rams who were giving up a ton of points. Ronnie Brown had the only goal line opportunity and he scored. Williams finished the game wit only 12 carries for 54 yards.

Antonio Gates, Chargers. The Chargers are one of the most disappointing teams in recent memory. These guys were a couple of big plays from reaching the Super Bowl last season. Gates looked gimpy and Philip Rivers was off target all day long. Gates had 3 catches for 27 yards.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ryan just keeps proving doubters like me wrong. He was great on Sunday in San Diego. He was 17-23 for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. He hit on almost 75 % of his passes and that was with a couple of dropped passes. The Falcons are a team to be reckoned with over the next four weeks, and Ryan is a big reason why they would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Joe Flacco, Ravens. The rookie quarterbacks were on their games this week. Flacco was 19-29 for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns. He picked up another point with 15 rushing yards. The 70 yard touchdown pass to Mark Clayton was a laser. Depending on his weekly match up, Flacco is a solid starting option.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Grant owners have to be frustrated with his performance this season. The Panthers defense bounced back and held Grant to only 12 carries for 39 yards. The Packers have yet to find the offensive balance of running and passing the ball. They were ahead in the 4th quarter but could not hold the lead.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos. Marshall finished the game with 5 catches for 55 yards. The Broncos had a huge win, but the main wide receiver in the game was Eddie Royal. For some reason, Marshall has fallen off in the past month. He still is a great wide receiver option, because the Broncos are going to throw the football a lot.

Lance Moore, Saints. 2 catches for 15 yards, but one catch was for a touchdown. Moore was not able to get open against the tough Buccaneers’ defense, but he was able to catch a 13 yard touchdown strike over the middle from Drew Brees. Moore’s touchdown gave him a total of 7 Fantasy points which is an average game for him this season.

Totals: 4-6 (Overall 74-48-5)

My Picks

Wins: Cowboys, Eagles, Browns, Giants, Panthers, Steelers, Chiefs, Vikings, Texans
Losses: Lions, Bills, Bengals, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jets, Chargers
Total: 9-7 (Overall 101-86-5)

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 13

2008-11-28T16:10:00.000-08:00

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Trent Edwards, Bills. Early in the year, Edwards was being mentioned as the next great NFL quarterback. Now, after a couple of bad games and a concussion against the Cardinals, people have forgotten how good he can be. The Bills exploded for over 50 points last week and I expect them to have another huge game at home against the Niners.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. It is hard to believe that the Raiders are favored to win this game. The Chiefs have been throwing the football more in the past few weeks, but the strength of the Raiders defense is in their secondary. LJ still has some life in his legs. The Chiefs throw the football enough this week to open up running lanes for Johnson. This game looks like an upset win for the Chiefs.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Without much fan fare, the Texans’ offense has been putting up points every week. Slaton has been their best running back all year, and his opportunities should increase even more with the Ahman Green injury. Slaton now should get any short yardage goal line carries. He is also one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL at catching the ball out of the backfield.

Ricky Williams, Dolphins. Any player on the Dolphins’ offense is a great start this week. The Rams have not been able to stop any opponents in the last few weeks. Williams’ had an amazing, diving touchdown catch last week. With Ronnie Brown’s injury history, look for Williams to have the bulk of the carries in the 2nd half of this game.

Antonio Gates, Chargers. The Chargers are a desperate team. They have had a bunch of close losses which include one of the worst officiating blunders in recent memory. At home, this team still is tough to beat. Gates is one of these players that play the best when his team needs him to come up big. The prediction here is a 100 yard game for Gates and at least one touchdown.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. In 2008, rookies have played important roles for a number of teams. The NFL Rookie of the Year is going to be a close vote. Ryan should be near the top of that list. He has provided a steadying influence for the Falcons’ offense. He is due to have a rocky road start. With recently promoted Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera, the Chargers have been blitzing more. Look for a tough late afternoon game for Ryan.

Joe Flacco, Ravens. The conventional wisdom would say to start Flacco this week against the Bengals. This week is the one where these rookie quarterbacks are going to hit a wall physically. The NFL season is a brutal grind and these guys are just not used to the length of the season. In their last home game against Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, the Bengals gave up just 13 total points with 3 interceptions, a fumble recovery, and 2 sacks. This game sets up as a low scoring contest.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Grant is facing a group of wounded cats this week. The Panthers defense has been tough all year and has not given up many Fantasy points, but the Falcons embarrassed them last week. Running back Michael Turner had a huge game. But, I think that was an aberration. Against the Packers this week, the Panthers’ dominant defense returns. Do not start Ryan Grant this week.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos. In his last seven games, Marshall has only score one touchdown. His production has really fallen off as the Broncos’ have been decimated at the running back position. Teams can key on Marshall because they do not have to worry about any running game. Marshall owners also have to realize how tough the Jets have been against their opponent’s top receiver.

Lance Moore, Saints. Moore has been steadily climbing up the wide receiver rankings. He is now a top 10 Fantasy receiver, but this week he runs into an underrated Buccaneers’ defense. Moore’s rise has coincided with a week schedule for the Saints. When these teams played in Week 1, Moore had 2 catches for 17 yards. My take is that the Buccaneers control the clock, pressure QB Drew Brees, and take away Moore’s yards after the catch. If you have any other options, give Moore a one week rest.

My Picks

Titans -10.5 @Lions - Lions
@Cowboys -13 Seahawks - Cowboys
@Eagles -3 Cardinals - Eagles
@Bills -6 Niners - Bills
Ravens -7 @Bengals - Bengals
Colts -5 @Browns - Browns
@Packers -3 Panthers - Panthers
@Jets -8 Broncos - Jets
Dolphins -8.5 @Rams - Dolphins
@Buccaneers -3.5 Saints - Buccaneers
Giants -3.5@Redskins - Giants
@Chargers -5 Falcons - Chargers
@Patriots -1 Steelers - Steelers
@Raiders -3 Chiefs - Chiefs
@Vikings -3 Bears - Vikings
@Texans -3 Jaguars - Texans

Wrap Up - Week 12

2008-11-24T15:27:00.001-08:00

Start’em

Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers. The Lions jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but Garcia was able to help bring the Bucs back. An interception return and a punt return for a touchdown helped out the cause. Garcia was 13-18 for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. He finished the game with 13 Fantasy points which is double his average and a solid game for Garcia owners.

Eli Manning, Giants. Brandon Jacobs ended up inactive for the game and Plaxico Burress injured his hamstring during the game. Manning had to throw especially in the red zone. He came up big for the Giants with 26 completions for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. Manning ended up scoring 20 Fantasy points for the game.

Matt Forte, Bears. Once again Forte proved to be the Bears’ best offensive player against the Rams. Forte had 20 carries for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was not much of a factor in the passing game with only 2 catches for 14 yards. He did have a fumble for a negative point. Forte had a great 47 yard touchdown run.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers. Tomlinson has been a consensus top 3 pick in the last four or five years in Fantasy football. This season he has really fallen off and has dropped to the 15th best running back. The problem is that he is not scoring touchdowns this season. Last night was a typical game—he had 21 carries for 84 yards and 3 catches for 30 yards. That is 7 Fantasy points. An okay game, but Tomlinson owners expect more. I am calling this a loss.

Roddy White, Falcons. In a huge win for the Falcons, White was not a huge factor. He finished the game with 70 combined rushing and receiving yards and a fumble. White has been having a great season so far, and he will bounce back in the next few games.

Sit’em

Jason Campbell, Redskins. The Redskins needed a win against the Seahawks and they were able to come through in the end. Campbell did a great job managing the game. He finished 20-33 for 206 yards and 1 touchdown. He also chipped in on the ground with 6 rushes for 32 yards. Campbell’s 12 Fantasy points is an above average game for him. Call this one a loss for me.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. Some people were picking the Jaguars to go to the Super Bowl, but at this point, they will be lucky to win 5 games. MJD did nothing on the ground Sunday, but he was effective in the passing game. He had 3 rushes for 4 yards and 9 catches for 113 yards. His 7 total Fantasy points is way under his weekly average.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. In the first meeting in September, Brown had 36 Fantasy points—this Sunday he had 3 Fantasy points. The Patriots traveled down to Miami and took care of the Dolphins. Brown had 47 combined rushing and receiving yards. For some reason, the Dolphins put up a bunch of points, but Brown was not involved in any of the scoring plays.

Brian Westbrook, Eagles. During the week, Westbrook had sore ribs and some other ailments, but he ended up playing in the game. He probably should not have played. He had 14 carries for 39 yards and 2 catches for -5 yards for 2 Fantasy points. The Ravens’ defense bounced back in a big way after the debacle last week against the Giants. In a huge rout, the Ravens’ defense almost scored 30 Fantasy points.

Justin Gage, Titans. Gage was one of the hottest names on the waiver wire this week. He was the number one pick up on many Fantasy sites. This week he ran up against one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Darelle Revis of the Jets. Gage ended the game with only 1 catch for 37 yards. He is just another inconsistent wide receiver.

Totals: 8-2 (Overall 70-42-5)

My Picks

Win: Steelers, Texans, Bears, Jets, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, Giants, Seahawks, Raiders, Saints
Loss: Chiefs, Dolphins, Panthers, Chargers
Total: 12-4 (Overall 92-79-5)

Fantasy Games. I needed a 2-0 week in the worst way. I am on the outside of the playoff picture in both of my Fantasy leagues. Okay, after Sunday, I have already lost one of the games and I am pretty much out of the playoff picture in my Atlanta league. In my Dallas league game this week, I am ahead going into tonight’s Saints game. I have Ryan Grant going, but my opponent has Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas. Needless to say, I will be watching this game and cheering for Grant the Packers.

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 12

2008-11-21T20:47:00.000-08:00

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers. Real life often imitates Fantasy football. In Garcia’s case, he does not rank very high on the list of NFL quarterbacks, but he should. He has scored big against a couple of the best defenses in the league. This week the Buccaneers play the Lions—a great match up for Garcia. You also should start Garcia, because the game is indoors and the Bucs are missing starting running back Earnest Graham. Warrick Dun will start and he gives Garcia another weapon in the passing game. Look for over 300 yards from Garcia on Sunday.

Eli Manning, Giants. If I am a part of the Giants’ organization, the game this Sunday with Arizona scares me. The travel, the crowd noise, and the Cardinals’ offense are against the Giants. Starting running back Brandon Jacobs might not play. The great thing for Eli Manning owners is that this game will be a high scoring affair. The prediction is another 35 plus point game for the Giants with Eli throwing for at least 2 touchdowns.

Matt Forte, Bears. Surprisingly, as a rookie running back, Forte has been the most consistent offensive player for the Bears. He probably is the team’s MVP for the 2008 season. He can hurt a defense in the passing game as well. The Rams defense has been terrible. In the last two games, they have been down by over 30 points at half time. Forte is going to have a monster Fantasy game; my only concern is that he might only play three quarters of the game.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers. San Diego has been very good at home this year. They might go 8-8 and win all their home games and lose all of their road games. LT has not had his normal statistical year, but it was about this time last year that San Diego made a run and that Tomlinson started dominating games. Plus, the Colts’ defense looks to be without the highly regarded run stopping safety Bob Sanders. Start LT and look for over 100 yards in total offense.

Roddy White, Falcons. The Falcons best wide receiver is having a great year. He is definitely a Pro Bowl selection and maybe an All Pro if he finishes the season with a flurry. However, fans are complaining about his dropped touchdown pass against Denver. By accepting the blame in interviews after the game, White probably earned more respect with coaches and teammates. Look for him to get a ton of targets this week and to redeem himself with a huge game in the Falcons biggest game in a long time.

Sit’em

Jason Campbell, Redskins. In the last two games, Campbell has faced tough defenses, but I am not sure that is why he is playing poorly. On offense, a few of the key Redskins’ players are injured and not playing that well. Portis and Santana Moss are hurting and they were guys making the big plays for Campbell earlier in the season. With a still hostile Seahawks’ home crowd and unpredictable weather against him, sit Campbell this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. I know MJD has scored nine touchdowns in the past six games, but this match up against the Vikings’ defense is going to slow him down. Yards in the running game are going to be hard to come by for the Jaguars. Also, this time of year is usually when Fred Taylor starts running well. The Jaguars are basically out of playoff contention and the Vikings are a desperate team playing with a chance to still win the division.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. The best overall Fantasy game of the year was Brown’s performance in the first Dolphins versus Patriots game--the rebirth of the Wildcat Formation in NFL circles. Brown ran, passed, and handed off in a big win for the Dolphins. New England and Coach Belichick have had a three extra days to prepare for the Dolphins. That is a bad situation and match up for Brown this weekend.

Brian Westbrook, Eagles. The Ravens were embarrassed last week by the Giants’ running attack. Usually, I think that the pride factor for NFL players is over stated, but not in the case of the Ravens. Both defenses should dominate the offenses in this game. Plus, Westbrook with his sore ribs is always one big hit away from being out of the game. If you have viable options at running back this week, consider sitting Westbrook.

Justin Gage, Titans. Quarterback Kerry Collins has found a favorite wide receiver in the Titans’ passing attack. Gage has been hot for the past two weeks, but this Sunday he runs into a Jets’ defensive secondary that is playing at a high level. Yes, they gave up 400 passing yards to Matt Cassel last week, but Gage is not Randy Moss or Wes Welker for that matter. Cornerback Darelle Revis for the Jets should blanket Gage for most of the day.

My Picks

@Steelers -10.5 Bengals - Steelers
@Ravens -1.5 Eagles - Ravens
Buccaneers -8.5 @Lions - Buccaneers
@Browns -3 Texans - Texans
@Jaguars -2 Vikings - Vikings
Bills -3 @Chiefs - Chiefs
Bears -8.5 @Rams - Bears
@Dolphins -2 Patriots - Dolphins
@Titans -4.5 Jets - Jets
@Cowboys -10 Niners - Cowboys
@Broncos -9.5 Raiders - Raiders
Redskins -3.5 @Seahawks - Seahawks
Giants -3 @Cardinals - Giants
@Falcons -1 Panthers - Panthers
@Chargers -2.5 Colts - Chargers
@Saints -2.5 Packers - Saints

Wrap Up - Week 11

2008-11-17T21:05:00.000-08:00

Start’em

Jay Cutler, Broncos. The Broncos corps of no name running backs actually played well against the Falcons. The running game accounted for a couple of touchdowns. Cutler played a solid game. He made several big throws to lead the Broncos to a victory. Culter finished the game 19-27 for 216 yards and one touchdown—a 9 yard touchdown pass to TE Daniel Graham.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. The MNF game was a wild game. The Bills turned the football over all night long, but somehow were able to score some points. Lynch was okay in the running game, but he was great in the Bills’ short passing game. As far as yards go, this was one of his best games. Lynch finished the game with 23 carries for 119 yards, and he had 10 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Joseph Addai, Colts. Addai has been struggling. He entered the game as the 42nd ranked running back in Fantasy football. Addai has his opportunities and he delivered big time. He had 22 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown. In the passing game, Addai caught 4 passes for 48 yards and a touchdown. He might have had the best game of the weekend of any running back.

Chris Johnson, Titans. Johnson was an important part of the Titans winning and improving to 10-0, but he had a below average Fantasy game. He had 17 rushes for 64 yards and 4 catches for 24 yards. His 5 Fantasy points were half his normal per game average. This pick was a loss.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. Owens finished the game with 5 catches for 38 yards. Tony Romo’s return did not really mean more opportunities for Owens. For some reason, Owens cannot break big plays or get behind the defense. Owens has not a 100 yard receiving game for over a year, but it is very hard not to play him if he is on your Fantasy roster.

Sit’em

Kerry Collins, Titans. The situation at halftime looked bleak for the Titans. The Jaguars were up 14-3 and looked like they were in complete control. Collins led the Titans to a huge comeback. He only completed 13-23 for 230 yards, but he threw 3 touchdown passes. Collins finished with 17 total fantasy points. He hit Justin Gage with two long passes of 56 and 38 yards for touchdowns.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. Frerotte finished the game 14-20 for 138 yards and a touchdown. He had a 4 yard touchdown pass to Bobby Wade. The Tampa defense shut down Adrian Peterson on the ground and Gus Frerotte in the passing attack. Tampa Bay’s defense needs to get some more press as one of the toughest in the NFL.

Reggie Bush, Saints. After pretty much guaranteeing that he would play, Bush was ruled out Friday for the Saints game against the Chiefs. Luckily, I already had written this column which said not to play Bush because he does not play hurt. For that reason, I am counting this as a win.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. The bad weather conditions did not stop Roethlisberger from throwing for over 300 yards, but most of those yards went to Hines Ward. Holmes only had 5 catches for 63 yards. He is due for a big game at some point, isn’t he?

Braylon Edwards, Browns. Edwards finshed the game with 8 catches for 104 yards. Those stats only add up to 6 Fantasy points, but that total is better than Edwards’ per game average. Edwards had about 4 other drops, but still chalk this up as a loss for me.

Totals: 6-4 (Overall 62-40-5)

My Picks

Wins: Jets, Packers, Broncos, Texans, Buccaneers, Bengals, Lions, Cardinals, Niners, Cowboys
Losses: Dolphins, Ravens, Chiefs, Jaguars, Steelers, Bills
Total: 10-6 (Overall 80-75-5)

Fantasy Games. Very few games have gone my way this year in Fantasy football and this week appeared to be more of the same. I had some commitments on Sunday, but when I finally logged on to check my Fantasy game score, I was behind in my Atlanta league 58-1. That was not a good feeling. My team came back, but I was one of the unlucky souls that own the Steelers’ defense. The defense had a very good game, but if the disputed Polamalu touchdown would have counted it would have been a great game. I need those points, because now I am behind in my game by 7 points with Rian Lindell playing in the game tonight. Go Lindell! Okay, I do not want to get too happy here, but Lindell just kicked an extra point in the 4th quarter to put me ahead. Oh, I feel bad for Lindell he just missed a game winning 47 yard kick!

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 11

2008-11-15T09:36:00.000-08:00

Byes: No byes for the rest of the season!

Start’em

Jay Cutler, Denver. The Broncos went out and signed Tatum Bell this week. That fact alone tells you the state of the Broncos’ running game--terrible. The Falcons’ defense is very tough against the run. Relying on Cutler to have a monster game is the only way that the Broncos can win this game. Look for over 40 passing attempts from Cutler. He is primed for another 400 yard passing day.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. The past two weeks Lynch’s struggles have mirrored the Bills’ fall from grace. Analysts were calling QB Trent Edwards an MVP candidate. The Bills have forgotten that running the football is their strength. Lynch and the Bills get back on track this week on Monday Night Football against the Browns. Look for Lynch to rush for over 100 yards and score two touchdowns in a prime time performance.

Joseph Addai, Colts. Addai has been struggling, but he has a great match up this weekend against the Texans. The Texans are 27th in the league in Fantasy points allowed. This game should be a high scoring shoot out with both teams scoring over 30 points. In each of the last two games, Addai has had double figure carries, but he has not produced. This week he gets the opportunities, and he delivers for Peyton Manning and Coach Tony Dungy.

Chris Johnson, Titans. Surprisingly, the Jaguars defense is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing defense. In Fantasy, the Jags give up an average of 14 Fantasy points to opposing running backs—18th in the NFL. The Bears showed everyone in the league that you can stop the Titans’ running attack by stacking the box, but the Titans still won the game. Johnson had a terrible game versus the Bears, but he will bounce back in this road game.

Terrell Owens, Cowboys. Everyone is writing the Cowboys’ obituary for the 2008 season, but I think this team is going to make a run. The bright lights of the nationally televised Sunday night game on NBC will bring out either the best or the worst in Owens. I think he comes up with his best game of the season. With QB Tony Romo returning from his pinky injury, Owens will finally break the 100 yard mark and score two touchdowns.

Sit’em

Kerry Collins, Titans. Do not get me wrong Collins is leading the Titans to wins, but I am not a believer in his Fantasy value. The Titans’ receivers just are not that impressive. He has developed a rapport with TE Bo Scaife, but no one on the outside scares any defensive coordinator. The Titans should be able to run the football against the Jags this week which will limit Collins’ throwing opportunities.

Gus Frerotte, Vikings. NFL Week 11 is bench the old veteran quarterback week. Tampa Bay’s defense is quietly one of the league’s best. They give up just under 10 Fantasy points per game to the opposing team’s quarterback. Frerotte will not be any better this Sunday. With the bye weeks over, Frerotte’s value as a spot starter is history.

Reggie Bush, Saints. On one of my Fantasy team, Bush was my leading point scorer until the injury, but I never felt comfortable that he was going to deliver consistently week in and week out--too much Hollywood influence. If you have other options at running back, give Bush a week to prove he is back from his injury. His is fast and elusive and that ability is based on his legs. I am taking my own advice this week and keeping Bush on the bench.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. What is going on with the Steelers? The tough schedule is catching up with this team. The quarterback situation is in such disarray that you should sit Holmes this week. Coach Mike Tomlin should start Byron Leftwich and give Big Ben a chance to rest. The problem for Holmes is that he gets opportunities down the field and outside the numbers. With his injuries, Roethlisberger’s arm is not strong enough to make those throws.

Braylon Edwards, Browns. This season has been disappointing for Edwards. He has been inconsistent and he barely is averaging 5 Fantasy points per game. His situation is similar to Santonio Holmes’ predicament in Pittsburgh. The Browns’ new quarterback Brady Quinn will not throw deep down the field. Quinn is more likely to look for his running backs and tight ends. Play TE Kellen Winslow, but sit Edwards this week.

My Picks

@Patriots -3 Jets – Jets
@Giants -6.5 Ravens - Ravens
@Green Bay -3.5 Bears – Green Bay
@Falcons -6 Broncos - Broncos
@Panthers -14 Lions - Lions
@Colts -8 Texans - Texans
@Buccaneers -3.5 Vikings - Buccaneers
Saints -5.5 @Chiefs - Chiefs
@Dolphins -10.5 Raiders - Dolphins
Eagles -9 @Bengals - Bengals
Cardinals -3 @Seahawks - Cardinals
@Niners -6 Rams - Niners
@Steelers -4.5 Chargers - Steelers
Titans -3 @Jaguars - Jaguars
Cowboys -1.5 @Redskins - Cowboys
@Bills -4.5 Browns - Bills

Quick Slants - Reality Football

2008-11-13T05:34:00.000-08:00

Here are my quick thoughts on the real world of pro and college football:

The last five minutes of Monday Night Football was excruciating to watch. The Cardinals and Niners game dragged on and on like the last 15 seconds of an NBA game. The penalties were unbelievable. At one point, I thought the Cardinals were trying to lose. Their mishaps paled in comparison to the clock management of Coach Singletary, Mike Martz, and company. The Niners wasted at least 25 seconds and two plays. Here is my advice to Coach Singletary. Do not trust Mike Martz. Martz will do anything to be a head coach again. Singletary should make Martz call the plays from upstairs in the coaches’ booth. Get him off the sidelines. Secondly, Coach Singletary get out of San Francisco. Do not take the head coaching job. You will get an opportunity somewhere else. The Niners are being run by 27 year-old Jed York. He kind of looked like the kid that gets stuffed into a locker after gym class. He is making the football decisions? Insert your own expletive. Singletary needs to do his best in the next seven games and get out of town at the end of the year. Maybe, go coach the Vols.

At this moment, Kurt Warner is not a Hall of Famer. He is a very good player and a great person, but he did not have a long enough sustained period of excellence. The statistics cited on Monday Night Football are impressive, but how many of those 300 yard passing games were racked up in losses? Warner is an MVP candidate this year. If he wins the MVP this year and comes back with another winning season next year, he has a legitimate argument for the Hall of Fame. Remember the Hall of Fame is for great, not very good, players.

The NFL illegal forward pass rule is terrible. The line of scrimmage should be enforced just like the goal line. If the ball is across the line of scrimmage, the offense cannot make a forward pass. The rule as applied in the NY Giants versus the Philadelphia Eagles game makes no sense. That play should have been a penalty for Eli Manning and the Giants. Give credit to Manning, Kevin Gilbride, and Coach Tom Coughlin for knowing the rule.

Matthew Stafford should declare himself eligible for the NFL. The economics alone should be reason enough. The 2009 draft might be the last time rookies can demand the huge guaranteed money in signing bonuses. The NFL should and will adopt a rookie salary scale like the NBA. Top draft picks will have salary slots and maybe a two year guaranteed contract. Staying in school might cost Stafford anywhere from 20-30 million dollars over three years. That number is staggering. Okay, forget the money; there are a ton of other reasons. The immediate success of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco paves the way. Stafford is as physically talented as either of these guys. If he tests well on the personality and intelligence tests, he is a top 10 pick in 2009. He is one of the few quarterbacks eligible for the draft that plays in a pro style offense. Georgia is not going to be better next year. I have a list of about 10 more reasons why he should turn pro; the really difficult job is to come up with any reasons for him to stay for his senior year at Georgia.

The apologists speaking for Georgia Bulldog nation have to stop. In August, Georgia fans were not even talking about Alabama as a legitimate opponent. The Black Out was a bust. The Dawgs lost to Florida 49-10 and the game was not even that close. The fact is the team has not lived up to anyone’s expectations. Accept it and move on. In the real world of college football, Georgia is a regional power. Georgia is not an elite program yet. I am a huge Mark Richt fan. He is the right man for this job, but Coach Richt has to make some changes. There is a lack of discipline off the field and a lack of toughness on the field. The really scary thing for Georgia fans is the unknown of what is going to happen at Tennessee. What if they hire a coach that gets Tennessee back to a national championship contender? Think about these names—Mike Shanahan, Butch Davis, Bill Cowher, Steve Spurrier, Jon Gruden, Brian VanGorder. For the sake of Bulldog fans, I hope Tennessee’s athletic director thinks small.

Shouldn’t Charlie Weiss have been calling the offensive plays for the past three years? He is supposed to be an offensive guru. Notre Dame giving Weiss a ten year contract extension after one year is turning out to be one of the dumbest moves in college football history. I could not be more tired of Coach Weiss. In a sound byte today, he asked where is the program going to go. In college football, teams are either getting better or getting worse. The Irish are getting worse. They are 27-19 with Weiss as the head coach. Ouch. And they are not even playing a very tough schedule. After his first two years, the Irish went to BCS games and proceeded to get blown out. Supposedly, Coach Weiss has between a 14 and 21 million dollar buy out. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish booster club parties are already miserable affairs and now they are going to have to pass the offering plate. I mean they should have lost to San Diego State in week 1.

Wrap Up - Week 10

2008-11-10T16:37:00.000-08:00

Start’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. Flacco is emerging as a solid play every week. He is making long throws down the field. The Ravens have some decent weapons around him and a very good running game. Flacco finished the game 15-23 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had a 43 yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Yamon Figurs. Add a 2-point conversion pass to Derrick Mason for a total of 16 Fantasy points.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. Pennington finished the game 22-36 for 209 yards with one touchdown and one interception. I expected better passing stats for Pennington versus the Seahawks. He did hit Ted Ginn on a flea flicker play for a 39-yard touchdown pass. Pennington finished with 8 total Fantasy points.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs. Charles was a waiver wire pick up in a ton of Fantasy leagues. I picked him up and started in him in my Atlanta league. Big mistake. He had 3 carries for 8 yards. His game this week was a huge drop off from his production and touches last week. Chiefs lost another close game.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Against Minnesota, Grant finished the game with 16 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. Grant is making the most of his carries and probably should be getting more chances to run the football. He is starting to live up to his preseason draft status.

Lee Evans, Bills. The Bills and Evans are in free fall. This is the second straight way below average game for Evans. He only had 2 catches for 22 yards. The Bills might start thinking about making a quarterback change. Wide receivers usually are the hardest position to predict, but you have to think hard about starting Evans next week.

Sit’em

Marc Bulger, Rams. Bulger ended up 6-13 for 65 yards and 1 interception. He had a grand total of 0 Fantasy points. Bulger was trending upward the past three weeks until running into the Jets’ defense. Bulger owners should only consider starting him when the Rams play at home, and he has a good match up. Otherwise, find a different QB option.

Eli Manning, Giants. This game had more points scored than I anticipated. The Eagles had a chance to take the lead with a touchdown on the final drive, but could not convert a short 4th down play. Manning finished the game 17-31 for 191 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. An average game for Manning this season.

Deuce McCallister, Saints. The Falcons’ defense shut down the high-powered Saints’ offense. The Saints scored two garbage time 4th quarter touchdowns. Unfortunately for my picks, one touchdown was a 15 yard pass from Drew Brees to McCallister. Deuce finished with only 5 rushes for 18 yards, but he he had 2 catches for 23 yards and a touchdown. The TD helped to double his normal weekly Fantasy point total.

Matt Forte, Bears. Forte did not lose a step even with a new starting quarterback. He is definitely in the top three for Rookie of the Year voting. He had 126 combined rushing and receiving yards which included a 5 yard touchdown pass from Rex Grossman. Forte has been one of the best all around running backs in the NFL this year.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles. I knew this prediction was in trouble when the Eagles lined up with Jackson in the shotgun--their version of the Single Wing formation. Jackson took a direct snap and ran for an early touchdown. McNabb also looked for him throughout the game. Jackson had 85 combined rushing and receiving yards with a touchdown.

Totals: 4-6 (Overall 56-36-5)

My Picks

Wins: Jets, Panthers, Chiefs
Losses: Browns, Bills, Saints, Lions, Dolphins, Bears, Texans, Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Cardinals
Total: 3-11 (Overall 70-69-5)

Fantasy Games. Wow, this week was my worst of the season at picking games and Fantasy players. The only thing that can save this weekend for me is a huge Monday Night Football game from Kurt Warner and Tim Hightower. I am down 45 points, so I need a monster game from the Cardinals’ offense.

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 10

2008-11-07T17:42:00.000-08:00

Byes: Cowboys, Redskins, Bengals, Buccaneers

Start’em

Joe Flacco, Ravens. Baltimore fans are wacko for quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco has been a surprisingly steady hand for the Ravens’ offense. He was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against the Browns. If the Ravens can protect him against the Texans, look for Flacco to have at least 225 yards and a touchdown. Flacco only is owned in about 40% of Fantasy leagues, so he is worth a waiver wire pick up for the stretch run.

Chad Pennington, Dolphins. A couple of weeks ago the Seahawks traveled to Florida and played Tampa Bay. Tampa’s quarterback Jeff Garcia had the best Fantasy game of anyone that week. In Week 10, the Seahawks make the long trip across the country to visit play the Dolphins. Pennington has been consistently playing well, but this week he is even better. Pennington also should benefit, because the Dolphins’ receivers are improving each week.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs. Believe it or not the Chiefs’ offense is playing well right now. Charles will start at running back this week. Last week, he amassed over 100 yards rushing and receiving. Look for him to have between 20-25 touches this week. Charles has a great match up going against the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers’ defense is 29th in the NFL in Fantasy points allowed.

Ryan Grant, Packers. I know Grant has been a bust so far this year. He was a top 20 pick in most drafts, but he is not even averaging 5 Fantasy points per week. The Packers are even grumbling to the media that they gave him too much money. But this week against the Minnesota Vikings, Grant finally will have a break out game. I saw the Packers’ game last week and Grant looked like he was running hard and making quick cuts. Stay with him for one more week.

Lee Evans, Bills. Evans had his worst game of the year last week against the Jets. He definitely will bounce back against New England. The Patriots’ defense is getting better, but their secondary is still the weakest link. The Bills versus the Patriots is a huge game this week and Evans should be one of the stars of the game.

*Bonus Pick – Start any Carolina Panthers that you have on your roster against the Oakland Raiders. If you have both Carolina running backs on your team, I might even consider playing both of them. The Raiders already are making vacation plans.

Sit’em

Marc Bulger, Rams. The former Fantasy stalwart has been trending upward for the past three weeks, but Bulger goes on the road to play the New York Jets. Without much acclaim, the Jets’ defense has emerged as a force in the AFC. Defensive tackle Chris Jenkins and cornerback Darelle Revis are playing at a Pro Bowl level. New Coach Jim Haslett has made the Rams into a more competitive team, but the injury to Steven Jackson has hurt the Rams’ offense and has put more pressure on Bulger.

Eli Manning, Giants. These NFC rivalry games are always wars of attrition. The Eagles defense will blitz Manning all game long. The Giants should counter by running the football with their three-headed monster at running back. Look for a low scoring contest with Manning throwing for about 150 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Deuce McCallister, Saints. With Reggie Bush likely to miss the game with his knee injury, Deuce should have some opportunities against the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. However, the Falcons’ defense is underrated against the run. I have watched every game this year and the defense is able to shut down bigger, power running backs. It is the quick guys that have given them trouble. McCallister has only scored two touchdowns this season and he is not used to carrying a heavy workload. Look for the Falcons’ defense to shut down McCallister this week in a big Falcons’ win.

Matt Forte, Bears. You probably have to start Forte against the Titans, because he has been a solid Fantasy option this year. However, the odds are stacked against him. The Titans’ defense is great against the run. They hit hard and tackle very well. The Bears are starting Rex “Wrecks” Grossman at quarterback. The Titans will not be impressed. Look for the Titans to play man coverage on the wide receivers and stack about 8 players in the box to stop Forte and the Bears’ running attack.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles. Since the Eagles’ Week 7 bye, Jackson’s targets and opportunities have diminished. He still has big play capabilities, but wide receivers Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are starting to play like they were projected to in the preseason. These guys are seeing more passes form Donovan McNabb. Jackson should be ranked in the third tier of Fantasy receivers at this point in the season.

My Picks

@Browns -3 Broncos - Browns
Jaguars -6.5 @Lions - Lions
@Jets -8.5 Rams - Jets
Titans -3 @Bears - Bears
@Vikings -2.5 Packers - Vikings
@Dolphins -8 Seahawks - Dolphins
Ravens -1 @Texans - Texans
@Patriots -3.5 Bills - Bills
@Falcons -1 Saints - Saints
Panthers -9.5 @Raiders - Panthers
@Steelers -1 Colts - Steelers
@Chargers -14.5 Chiefs - Chiefs
@Eagles -3 Giants - Eagles
@Cardinals -9 Niners - Cardinals

State of the Fantasy Season. Fantasy football has changed over the past two seasons. Quarterbacks have taken over as the main Fantasy point scorers in most cases. Running backs are important, but the tendency to specialize at the running back position and to split carries has hurt their impact in Fantasy Football. Quarterbacks are great until you come to a week like this week. Fantasy owners are scrambling. QBs are hurt. QBs are getting benched. Brady Quinn is actually a solid Fantasy option. I mean Daunte Culpepper may start for the Lions this week! C’mon man.

Wrap Up - Week 9

2008-11-03T20:45:00.000-08:00

Start’em

Kurt Warner, Cardinals. In his return to St. Louis, Warner was 23-34 for 342 yards and two touchdowns. He is completing around 70% on the season. On Sunday, he averaged about 15 yards per completion. Warner has the hot hand. For a guy that was not drafted in most leagues, he is performing like a Fantasy MVP candidate.

Michael Turner, Falcons. Falcons are riding the Turner Train. He had 31 carries for 139 yards. Remarkably, this game played out exactly like I figured that it would. The Falcons jumped on the Raiders in the 1st quarter and used Turner to control the clock. He is hard to tackle with just one or two people. Amazingly, the Falcons held the Raiders to -2 total yards in the 1st half. No team has done that to another team since 1992!

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. Graham had a wild day for a running back. On a halfback pass play, he threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to TE Alex Smith. He also had 24 touches on offense for 91 combined rushing and receiving yards. He lost two fumbles for -2 points. One of the fumbles was in the 4th quarter at the 2-yard line that the Chiefs recovered for a touchback. With Warrick Dunn inactive and hurting, Graham will have lots of opportunities.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. I seriously underestimated the Ravens’ defense. They gave up some yards in the passing game, but Lewis could find no running room. Lewis has not scored many Fantasy points in the last few weeks. On Sunday, he had 19 carries for 49 yards and one reception for 13 yards. You might look at other options in your line up in place of Lewis.

Plaxico Burress, Giants. This team is proving a point to Plaxico that they can score without him. Manning found almost every other wide receiver for a touchdown against the Cowboys. Steve Smith, Amani Toomer, and Kevin Boss scored on short pass plays. Burress finished the game with 3 catches for 34 yards. Giants look like the best team in the NFL.

Sit’em

Matt Cassel, Patriots. This game had few touchdowns scored. The Patriots controlled the game with their offensive line and by running the football. Some strange time-outs called by Coach Belichick. Cassel completed 25-34 passes for 204 yards and one interception. He also scrambled for 20 yards and another Fantasy point. Cassel should have better numbers with his corps of players around him. Patriots have to find a way to get Moss open deep down the field.

Brad Johnson, Cowboys. The Cowboys are in serious danger of not making the playoffs this year. I knew it was not good when I saw on the game ticker during the Falcons’ game that Brooks Bollinger was in the game. Johnson finished the game 5-11 for 71 yards and two interceptions for a -2 Fantasy points. This outing was a predictably horrible performance for Johnson and the Cowboys.

Santana Moss, Redskins. Monday night was a tough night for Santana Moss. The Steelers defense was all over QB Jason Campbell, and Moss came into the game injured. You have to be 100% to make plays against the Steelers #1 defense. Moss finished the game with 2 catches for 14 yards.

Reggie Wayne, Colts. Wayne finished the game with 5 receptions for 65 yards, but he was able to add to his Fantasy point total by catching a 2-point conversion in the 2nd half. This game is the third below average game for Wayne. More than half of his catches came on the Colts second half scoring drive. For most of the game, Wayne was not a factor and he is not getting the number of targets that he normally does.

Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs. This game had to be frustrating for the Chiefs. They had a huge lead on the Buccaneers and lost in overtime. Gonzalez finished the game with 7 receptions for 62 yards for a grand total of 4 Fantasy points. The Chiefs’ offense is improving, but this was a below average day for Gonzalez.

Totals: 8-2 (Overall 52-30-5)

My Picks

Wins: Lions, Packers, Cardinals, Falcons, Patriots, Steelers
Losses: Bills, Texans, Jaguars, Browns, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Broncos
Total: 6-8 (Overall 67-58-5)

Fantasy Games. Tough week for me picking games against the spread, but I felt much better about my teams’ performances in Fantasy games. In both games, the teams scored over 60 points. I need the Steelers’ defense to come up big on Monday night to help me secure a win in my Atlanta league. I am losing by 8 points. In my other league, my opponent has the Redskins’ kicker and Antwaan Randle El. MNF has to be a low scoring game for me to win both my games this week. This week was a rare week where almost everything came together for me to win two Fantasy games. The Steelers’ defense came up big.

Make sure to go and vote tomorrow!

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 9

2008-11-01T07:37:00.000-07:00

Byes: Saints, Chargers, Niners, Panthers

Start’em

Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Many Fantasy owners (including myself) benched Warner in last week’s game against the Carolina Panthers. Big mistake. That one decision cost me a Fantasy win in a very competitive league. For this week, Warner is the #1 quarterback play. He has a great match up with an improving Rams team, but the big advantage for him is that this game is indoors on the turf. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston should be running all over the field against the Rams.

Michael Turner, Falcons. One of the big question marks each week for the Falcons is whether or not they will be able to run the football. The news that rookie offensive tackle Sam Brady is out for an indefinite period of time is not good for Falcons’ fans. The road trip to the West Coast is another concern for Turner owners. However, the absolute terribleness of the Raiders’ defense outweighs any of these factors. The prediction is the Falcons jump out to an early lead, and Turner has about 30 carries for 125 yards.

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. The Bucanneers’ offense took a big step back last week against Dallas. They had trouble moving the football. I look for Coach Jon Gruden to try and establish the missing in action running game on the road against the Chiefs. With Warrick Dunn’s back still an issue, Graham should get plenty of opportunities to score points this week.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. Play Lewis against the vaunted Ravens’ run defense? Yes, this week the Ravens’ will give up over 100 yards to Lewis on the ground. Count on Lewis for a big game this week.

Plaxico Burress, Giants. Do not listen to the reports of Plaxico’s demise. Clearly, he has some off the field personal or family issues he needs to resolve, but this guy is a competitor. The bigger the game, the better Burress plays. The Steelers were able to hold the Giants to field goals in the red zone. This week Burress is halfway out of Coach Coughlin’s doghouse. Look for at least two Eli Manning to Burress fade routes into the end zone.

Sit’em

Matt Cassel, Patriots. The Colts are favored this week at home against the Patriots. Does Vegas know some inside information? Patriots look like the much stronger team especially on defense. The problem for Cassel owners is that on the road this year Cassel and the Patriots have been a totally different team.

Brad Johnson, Cowboys. If you own Tony Romo and picked up Brad Johnson to play while Romo is out, you need to admit the mistake before its too late. Against some other teams, starting Johnson this week might be an option. Starting him against the Giants is punishable by jail time. I almost feel badly for Johnson that he has to start the game in real life. The Giants pass rush is an overwhelming force. Back up Brooks Bollinger probably will see some action this Sunday.

Santana Moss, Redskins. Moss was incredible last week against the Lions. He made huge plays that helped propel Washington to a win. Even with the great statistics from that game, Moss owners know that he is up and down. Just check out his weekly Fantasy point totals. His match up this week against the Steelers’ defense is more evidence that this is a week to sit Moss.

Reggie Wayne, Colts. The Colts need Joseph Addai back and at full strength. He is supposed to play this week, but Reggie Wayne is the Colts’ only deep threat. Marvin Harrison is struggling and Anthony Gonzalez is a solid possession receiver, but he does not garner any extra attention from defensive coordinators. Other teams are free to double Wayne and take him out of the game. In this heated rivalry game, I am predicting a low scoring contest with a minimum of Fantasy points to go around.

Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs. Gonzalez is the second ranked TE in Fantasy football, so you almost have to play him this week. However, do not count on him to have a big game against the Bucanneers. Tampa Bay’s defense is strong in the middle of the field. Derrick Brooks and their safeties will be matching up with Gonzalez all day. Plus, the Bucs have the extra benefit of having prepared and played against the Cowboys’ Jason Witten last week. Their defensive schemes to stop the tight end should carry over.

My Picks

@Bills -5.5 Jets - Bills
Jaguars -7.5 @Bengals - Jaguars
@Browns -1.5 Ravens - Browns
@Vikings -4.5 Texans - Texans
@Bears -12.5 Lions - Lions
Buccaneers -9 @Chiefs - Buccaneers
Cardinals -3 @Rams - Cardinals
@Titans -5.5 Packers - Packers
@Broncos -3 Dolphins - Broncos
@Giants -9 Cowboys - Cowboys
Eagles -6.5 @Seahawks - Seahawks
Falcons -3 @Raiders - Falcons
@Colts -6 Patriots - Patriots
@Redskins -1.5 Steelers - Steelers

Wrap Up - Week 8

2008-10-27T20:30:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Drew Brees, Saints. Is there anyone playing better than Brees right now? In the London game, he was 30-41 for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns. That is a 73% completion percentage. Even with key guys injured, he spreads the football around to other players. The three touchdowns were caught by Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and TE Mark Campbell.

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. Delhomme came into this game as the 18th ranked Fantasy quarterback. He is a solid Fantasy #2 option, but this week he played like a starter. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns. Delhomme has some good weapons and WR Steve Smith turned a short pass into a 65 yard touchdown play.

Frank Gore, Niners. The Niners are a mess. Coach Singletary kicked one of his own players off the field. I like that style. Once again, Gore was a solid play. He deserves more touches. He finished the game with 18 rushes for 94 yards and 7 receptions for 65 yards. You pretty much can pencil Gore in for his 10 Fantasy points every week.

Jericho Cotchery, Jets. It was a surprise to see the Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles played this week. Cotchery did not score a touchdown, but he came through for the Jets with a big game. He caught 9 of Brett Favre’s passes for 102 yards. The Jets’ offense still is unpredictable, but they are letting Favre throw a ton in their wins.

Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers. The Buccaneers looked great in prime time last week, but the Cowboys were able to control their offense in Week 8. The Buccaneers did not score a touchdown. Bryant had 7 receptions for only 46 yards. The short passing game is Jeff Garcia’s bread and butter, but Dallas was able to limit Bryant’s ability to run after making the catch. I would not give up on this passing combination.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ryan struggled a little, but finished the game with very good numbers. The two interceptions hurt his statistics and the Falcons chance to win. He ended up 23-44 for 277 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His 12 yards per completion shows he can get the football downfield. Both touchdowns were to Roddy White. Ryan made a great throw into a tight window on the 55 yard touchdown pass. Ryan is trending upward, and he is a great pick up right now if you need quarterback help.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants. This Giants versus Steelers game was very physical. Both defenses were flying all over the field and hitting people. The Steelers were able to keep Jacobs out of the end zone with a huge goal line stand. Jacobs finished the game with 53 total rushing and receiving yards.

Justin Fargas, Raiders. Fargas finished the game with 12 rushes for 24 yards. He earned a paltry one Fantasy point. Thankfully, I did not have to watch one play of this Raiders and Ravens game. The Raiders have quality players on offense, but I would hesitate to play any of them against a quality defensive team.

Vincent Jackson, Chargers. Jackson clearly is Philip Rivers’ favorite target in the red zone. He is a big target that can go up and catch fade routes and score across the middle. He had 4 catches for 60 yards and 1 touchdown. Jackson is a must start for Fantasy owners.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. Harrison has lost a step. There is not doubt about it. The Colts’ offense is not executing like they have for the past five years. Harrison has 1 catch for 12 yards. Several other times Manning tried to get him the football, but he was either not open or Manning made a bad throw.

Totals: 7-3 (Overall 44-28-5)

My Picks

Wins: Rams, Ravens, Miami, Eagles, Browns, Titans
Losses: Buccaneers, Jets, Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, Niners
Push: Lions, Panthers
Total: 6-6-2 (Overall 61-50-5)

Fantasy Games. This season has been a nightmare so far. Every time I need a player to come through for me, the guy has a bad game. Every time I need an opponent’s player to have a bad game, that player comes through with big Fantasy points. This season has been so unpredictable. Tonight is a microcosm of my season. The Titans’ kicker Rob Bironas is my kicker. I am behind in the game by 11 points. Bironas has made 20 straight field goals. He needs one more make to set the Titans’ team record and give me a tie with lots of time remaining in this game. Of course, Bironas goes out and pull hooks a 43 yard attempt. Oh, now the Titans are going for a 2 point conversion instead of letting Bironas kick the extra point. Bironas from 48 yards…yes! Jubilation!

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 8

2008-10-24T21:09:00.000-07:00

Byes: Bears, Broncos, Packers, Vikings

Start’em

Drew Brees, Saints. Yes, Brees struggled for the first time all year last week against the Panthers, but do not take him out of your lineup. The Saints’ offense is hurting with Reggie Bush out, Jeremy Shockey at half speed, and Marques Colston still rounding into shape. Those injuries just mean that Brees is going to have to throw the football more! Also, Deuce McCallister should run the football better than Bush between the tackles. The threat of the inside running game will bring the Chargers’ safeties up closer to the line of scrimmage, and Brees can hit some long throws off play-action fakes.

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. The Panther are at home against the Cardinals who are coming off the bye week. Hopefully, during the bye week, the Cards came up with some schemes to stop teams from scoring at will against them. I doubt it. Delhomme should find receivers Smith and Muhammad open all over the field. This game is a high scoring affair with Delhomme putting up over 250 yards passing.

Frank Gore, Niners. Coach Mike Nolan is out, and Coach Mike Singletary is in as the Niners’ head coach. Can Singletary control O-Coordinator Mike Martz? Yes. Look for the Niners to try to run the football more with Singletary at the helm. Plus, they are playing the Seahawks at home. The Seahawks’ defense is undersized and simply not very good right now.

Jericho Cotchery, Jets. Cotchery has been up and down all season. Last week, the Raiders had the skill players in the secondary to match up with Cotchery and Coles on the outside. Cotchery is small and he is not great at beating press coverage and getting separation from defenders. Luckily, he will not have that problem this week against the Chiefs at home. The Chiefs were embarrassed last week against the run. Look for them to sell out to stop the run and for Favre to throw about 45 times on Sunday.

Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers. Sometimes, we forget that, just like we do against old bosses, NFL players hold grudges against other teams. Although it was under the Bill Parcells’ regime, Bryant’s terrible time as a Cowboy has to fire him up this week. Bryant is a big wide receiver and he looks like he is improving every week. Here is the scenario: Bryant’s anger plus Garcia’s feisty toughness multiplied by Dallas’ terrible secondary equals big Fantasy points.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan, Falcons. The Falcons are kind of my adopted team and Ryan looks like a great draft pick. He has a bright future, but this week will be a learning on-the-job situation. Playing the Eagles reminds me of the Tampa Bay game--on the road, on grass, against a blitz-happy defensive coordinator, with a Pro Bowl caliber secondary. Ryan is the man for the Falcons, just not this week.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants. What a difference a NFL year makes in Fantasy football. In the 2007 draft, Fantasy owners would have laughed if Jacobs was a high draft pick. This year he literally is running over defensive backs in every game. His highlight reel is going to be ridiculous. However, his match up this week is bad. The Steelers’ defense is hard to run against, but even harder to score touchdowns against on the ground.

Justin Fargas, Raiders. When someone just reads the names of the Raiders’ offensive players, you might think, “Hey that’s not a bad lineup.” The problems start when those guys have to perform on the field. Unless you are out of options, I would sit every Raider player this week against the Ravens.

Vincent Jackson, Chargers. This NFL goes to London game is hard to predict. The teams have been across the Atlantic Ocean all week doing press, practicing, and getting ready for the game. The normal routine is non-existent. Last year, the weather was awful. This is a great match up for Jackson, but only if the game were in America. Sit him this week.

Marvin Harrison, Colts. Harrison has lost a step. The knee injury and surgery from last year has slowed him down. In every game, you see at least one pass that in year’s past would have been a big play completion. I wonder if Harrison is able to work with Peyton Manning and run routes in pre-game like he used. Plus, the Titans’ secondary will blanket Harrison. This game might be an ugly loss for the Colts.

My Picks

@Eagles -9 Falcons - Eagles
@Panthers -4 Cardinals - Panthers
Chargers -3.5 @Saints - Chargers
@Jets -13.5 Chiefs - Jets
@Ravens -7 Raiders - Ravens
@Cowboys -2.5 Buccaneers - Buccaneers
Bills -1.5 @Dolphins - Miami
Redskins -8 @Lions - Lions
@Patriots -7.5 Rams - Rams
@Texans -9 Bengals - Bengals
@Jaguars -7 Browns - Browns
@Steelers -3 Giants - Steelers
@Niners -5 Seahawks - Niners
@Titans -3.5 Colts - Titans

The Romo Dilemma

2008-10-22T20:40:00.000-07:00

*Named in honor of the Prisoner’s Dilemma (check Wikipedia or several other sources for more information) in game theory, the Romo dilemma is a situation for Fantasy owners when one of your options is to start your franchise quarterback even though he likely is not the starter for the real game—what we have here is a developing situation kind of dilemma.

All last week, I was glued to the Tony Romo story, because Romo is my starting quarterback for my team the Dark Knights. This team is struggling and I need Romo. Fantasy owners know what I mean when I say “need”—there is a desperation there. I picked up Brad Johnson on the waiver wire with the idea that the Cowboys’ have enough weapons for him to score some Fantasy points. After reports that Romo did not practice on Friday, I made the change and started Johnson. All day Saturday, I was uncomfortable (think Sarah Palin in newly bought threads from Sak’s 5th Avenue standing between Alec Baldwin and Lorne Michaels on SNL) and looking at other scenarios.

Here was the process. I figured I had three options: start Johnson; gamble and start Romo; or pick up a 3rd quarterback who was guaranteed to start and play most of the snaps. Find someone on the Fantasy football scrap heap that no one in a competitive league has picked up all year. No really winning options--it kind of reminded me of when I had Bryant Westbrook. He never practiced and from week to week I never knew if he was going to play or not.

The number one option was to start Johnson and just hope that he played well. He has T.O., Crayton, Barber, Miles Austin, Roy Williams, uh oh. Okay, maybe he does not have that many offensive weapons, but Barber and T.O. can take short receptions and turn them into touchdowns. Plus, I figured the Cowboys for a huge lead. They could run the football and set up safe play-action passes against a lackluster Rams’ defense.

Secondly, I could start Romo. If Johnson started off badly or Dallas was behind, Romo might come in and work only out of the shotgun. Throw on every down and complete a ton of passes--Cinderella story, Favrian toughness, Don’t mess with Texas, Tony the Tiger, Brady with Midwestern grit, etc. The Cowboys win 27-21 in a stunningly close game. Romo writes another story in his march towards greatness, blah, blah, blah. In my Fantasy league, I look like a genius and add to my somewhat modest but growing legend. On Saturday while watching Texas play Missouri, I made the switch back to Romo, even though the reports were that Johnson would start.

Starting a guy in a Fantasy game that is not even starting in the real game makes no sense to me. Doing that goes against my Fantasy 101 pamphlet. During breakfast on Sunday, I switched back to Brad Johnson. (My regular back up is Kurt Warner who I stole with a very late draft pick. I had to endure the, Why are you drafting him? Leinart’s the starter…trash talk from a room of ten self-proclaimed football experts. It would have been perfect to play Warner except the Cardinals happen to be on their bye week.) So, about 90 minutes before game time, I was firmly behind Brad Johnson.

My third option was to pick up another available starting quarterback and start them for a one week stop-gap measure. In my league, the available quarterbacks likely to start and maybe to produce were Kerry Collins, Gus Frerotte, and Jeff Garcia. Collins had the best match up going against the Chiefs’ sad defense. You knew they were going to win, but would they even need to throw the football. When I thought for minute and could not name a starting wide receiver, I marked Collins off the list. Frerotte was intriguing for two reasons. He has a solid running game with Adrian Peterson. The Bears defense is a tough match-up, but they would probably sell out to stop Peterson. Also, the week before I had watched Matt Ryan pass for over 300 yards against the Bears. I was hesitant because I figured this game to be low scoring (turns out that was way off base). Bears versus Vikings in Chicago, the windy city. Weather could be a factor. Natural grass. Urlacher, Jared Allen. To me, those factors added together to get a low scoring defensive struggle.

So, I turned to Jeff Garcia. Garcia with solid stats led Tampa to a big win the week before against Carolina. The Bucs were playing in prime time at home against the Seahawks who are not very good. I already had picked up Warrick Dunn to plug into another bye week hole in the roster. I thought there was a better chance to for this game to be a high scoring affair. So, I added Garcia and dropped Brad Johnson. Johnson dropped all the way from Fantasy starter to free agent. Garcia ended up having the best game of any quarterback and he led me to a much needed, desperate come from behind win. However, now I have a mini-quarterback controversy on my hands with Garcia, Romo, and Warner on the roster.

Quick Slants:

Think about the difference in the reputation and character of Kellen Winslow, Sr. and Kellen Winslow, Jr. Winslow, Jr. may have a legitimate complaint about the staph infections that seem to infect Browns’ players, but his reputation is so low that most people will not even listen to him. I am old enough to remember the elder Winslow’s performance in the Chargers versus Dolphins playoff game. I am starting to have a bad case of nostalgia during these down economic times.

I am trying to grow my hair out and get the John Parker Wilson hair style. Not sure my wife or my boss is too happy about it, but you have to be committed to something.

Rodney Harrison is not a Hall of Famer. He is consummate professional and an impact player, but he also is an admitted cheater. If he is on your team, you defend him to the maximum. Everyone forgets he was suspended by the NFL for buying HGH.

Wrap Up - Week 7

2008-10-20T20:00:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Brett Favre, Jets. Like many people, I saw the end of this game. Favre pulled one of his great escapes in his own end zone; then he found Chansi Stuckey for a 31 yard gain. Somehow, he got the Jets in field goal position for Jay Feely to tie the game. Incredible effort, but Favre’s numbers for the game were 21-38 for 197 yards and two interceptions. Clearly, despite the end of game heroics, this was not one of Favre’s best games and a loss for me.

Matt Schaub, Texans. Quietly, Schaub is emerging as a must start for Fantasy owners. Having Andre Johnson at wide receiver is a major factor in his production. Schaub was 26-31 for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns. His completion percentage was outstanding. Both touchdowns were to TE Owen Daniels. More importantly for Schaub, he did not throw an interception. Interceptions have killed his Fantasy points in other games this year.

Steven Jackson, Rams. I wish I could have watched this game. Jackson must have been awesome. He finished the game with 176 combined rushing and receiving yards with 3 touchdowns. On the highlight of his 56 yard rushing touchdown, he burst through the hole and barely was touched on the way to the end zone. Fantasy owners who have been burned by Jackson for a season and a half are smiling this week.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. Cleveland is too hard to figure out. The offense was crisp and fired on all cylinders against the Giants on MNF. Playing on the road in the NFL is very difficult, but the Browns looked like a totally different team. Lewis had a solid, if not great game, with 98 combined rushing and receiving yards for 6 Fantasy points.

Calvin Johnson, Lions. Johnson owners had to be worried for most of this game, but one big play turned this receiver’s whole day around. He only had 2 catches, but those grabs went for a career high 154 yards and 1 touchdown. He also caught a 2-point conversion. If QB Dan Orlovsky continues to improve, Johnson is really the only big play option in the Lions’ passing attack.

Sit’em

Jay Cutler, Broncos. Cutler banged his thumb and hand on a Patriots’ helmet on the very first play from scrimmage. He stayed in the game, but he definitely looks injured. Cutler finished the game with 168 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He just did not look like himself after the injury and after the Patriots started blowing the Broncos out of the stadium.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings. There must be something about the city of Chicago that appeals to AP. Last year, he played great at Soldier Field and this Sunday he was exceptional again. He had 22 carries for 121 yards (5.5 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns. His 54 yard rushing touchdown displayed the speed and power of 2007. He added one reception for 9 yards and finished with 20 total Fantasy points. Once again, proof to me that you have to start your high draft choices every week.

Julius Jones, Seahawks. How far have the Seahawks fallen this year without Matt Hasselbeck? Wow, they looked awful against a great Tampa Bay defense. Jones had 7 rushes for 42 yards. If you own Jones, you might want to consider dropping him after this week. Maurice Morris is back and it is hard to tell if the Seahawks will be able to move the football against anybody.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals. Even with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, the Bengals’ offense showed some life against the Steelers. They scored on their longest touchdown drive in two years. Houshmandzadeh finished the game with 8 catches for 58 yards and 3 total Fantasy points. Watching the game, it seems like Fitzpatrick looks more for Chad Johnson. If you have Houshmandzadeh, you have to be concerned until Carson Palmer returns.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings. I picked up Berrian on the waiver wire, and then I talked myself into not playing him this week. He torched me and the Bears for 6 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. Having a great game against the bears had to feel good for Berrian. If he is healthy, he is a must starter for the next few weeks.

Totals: 7-3 (Overall 38-25-5)

My Picks

Wins: Steelers, Titans, Bears, Packers, Patriots
Losses: Chargers, Saints, Dolphins, Cowboys, Niners, Texans, Redskins, Jets, Buccaneers
Total: 5-9 (Overall 55-44-3)

Fantasy Games. When Tony Romo hurt his pinkie last Sunday, I was not too worried. My back up is Kurt Warner and I just figured to plug him into the line up. Wrong. Warner and the Cardinals were on a bye week. Thus, the week passed by with me checking everyday on Romo and his playing status. I picked up Brad Johnson on waivers. Sunday morning I woke up with Johnson in the starting line up, but never felt comfortable about it. That gut feeling led to a long breakdown of who else to pick up and play. I ended up choosing Jeff Garcia, playing him, and winning a very close game.

Ties in Fantasy Football? Last week, we had a tie game in my Dallas league. The Giants defense was unable to score a point against the Cleveland Browns and that left two teams with a tie score. A couple of years ago our commissioner held a vote and our league decided to break ties by going to the decimal point. I am in favor of the idea, because I think it makes the playoff picture much clearer at the end of the year. I also play in an Atlanta league and in that league they allow ties. Two questions: Are you for ties in Fantasy regular season? And what do you think is the best way to break a tie game? Leave a comment.

Start'em of Sit'em - Week 7

2008-10-18T08:35:00.000-07:00

Byes: Cardinals, Falcons, Jaguars, Eagles

Start’em

Brett Favre, Jets. Favre had a tough Fantasy game this week against the Bengals, but expect him to bounce back with a great match up against the Raiders. The Raiders’ defense is giving up 234 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks. The main key for Favre is to avoid turning the football ball over. Favre should be fired up going into Oakland and playing in front of that hostile crowd.

Matt Schaub, Texans. The Texans are playing the Lions this week. That fact should be all that you need to know, but here are two others: the Lions’ defense gives up 250 yards passing per game; secondly, opposing teams have scored 9 passing touchdowns and been intercepted only once. Start any Texans’ players that you have in Week 7.

Steven Jackson, Rams. Fantasy owners have been burned by Jackson for a season and a half. He was probably a first round draft pick in your league, but in reality, he is a number 2 option at running back. However, I like the way Jackson is playing and he is coming off a solid game against the Redskins. The forecast is for Jackson to gain over 100 yards rushing and receiving with at least one touchdown.

Jamal Lewis, Browns. My modus operandi this season has been to fall for whoever plays well on Monday Night Football. Lewis also played well in Cleveland’s game against Cincinnati before the bye week. The best thing about Lewis is that in an NFL dominated by the two running back system, he is the Browns’ main option in short yardage situations. If they get close to the end zone, Lewis gets the football.

Calvin Johnson, Lions. I know Johnson suffered a concussion in the game against Minnesota. I know Roy Williams was traded to Dallas this week. I know Jon Kitna is out for the year. But, someone on the Lions has to have plays called for them and to score touchdowns. Expect Johnson to play and expect his targets to increase, because the Lions literally have no one else on offense.

Sit’em

Jay Cutler, Broncos. Cutler’s play has leveled off after a couple of big early season games. In the Broncos’ last road game against Kansas City, he was intercepted twice. This week the Broncos play at New England against a wounded, embarrassed Patriots’ defense

Adrian Peterson, Vikings. Conventional Fantasy wisdom is that you always start your star players. But, if you take a hard look at Peterson’s numbers this year, he is producing like a 2nd level running back. Everyone keeps waiting for him to have a monster game, but the Bears will stop him this week on the grass of Soldier Field. I watched the Bears against the Falcons in Week 6. The Bears’ defense stops the run and makes Gus Frerotte beat them.

Julius Jones, Seahawks. I was one of the first people to recommend starting Julius Jones last month. Jones is now off the must start list and on the bench. Maurice Morris should be back for the Seahawks. Plus, the Tampa Bay defense is getting stronger by the week. Monte Kiffin’s “Tampa 2” is 9th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. They give up under 90 yards per game on the ground.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals. Houshmandzadeh twisted his ankle in the Bengals’ loss to the Jets. He came back into the game and probably will play this week. Keep an eye on his status, because he might be a game time decision. He would have a tough statistical week going against the Steelers, but his value is lowered even more by the Bengals starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in total defense.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings. I just read one Fantasy column that said that Berrian is red hot and a must start this week. Berrian has killed my teams in the past. Right when you start believing he is going to consistently have good games, he disappears. Two above average games in a row is his maximum. Give Berrian a week off if you have another option at wide receiver.

My Picks

@Dolphins -3 Ravens - Dolphins
Cowboys -7 @Rams - Cowboys
@Bears -3 Vikings - Bears
@Panthers -3 Saints - Saints
Steelers -9.5 @Bengals - Steelers
@Bills -1 Chargers - Chargers
@Giants -10.5 Niners - Niners
Titans -9 @Chiefs - Titans
@Texans -9.5 Lions - Texans
@Redskins -7.5 Browns - Redskins
@Packers -1.5 Colts - Packers
Jets -3 @Raiders - Jets
@Buccaneers -10.5 Seahawks - Buccaneers
@Patriots -3.5 Broncos - Patriots

State of The Hills. I just finished watching three episodes of The Hills during the third debate between Senators Obama and McCain. I have been into this political race since last year at this time, and frankly I am tired. I am ready for November. The pundits, talking heads, political spin doctors (I used to like the Spin Doctors) are driving me crazy. Maybe I am wrong about this, but I would just like for someone smart to run this country--someone that is going to at least in public act like they believe in the basic tenets that America was founded on. I just caught McCain saying that we need a change from the last eight years. His party, the Republican Party, has been in power! As soon as Cheney is out of the White House, we will be better off in this country. Now, the good stuff. When Audrina took off her bikini top, guys all over this country stood up and cheered. The Hills girls are going to Cabo. Nothing good can come of a trip to Cabo. These trips always end badly for LC—remember the first season of Laguna Beach.

Wrap Up - Week 6

2008-10-13T20:25:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Without his main weapon Bryant Westbrook, McNabb bounced back from a mediocre week last week to lead the Eagles to a big win. Correll Buckhalter filled in for Westbrook; and McNabb threw for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns. I think the key statistic for McNabb was that he averaged over 12 yards per completion. When the Eagles passing game is making big plays, they are going to be tough to beat.

Kyle Orton, Bears. Orton’s bandwagon is filling up fast. After this week’s game, more people are going to be looking to pick up Orton. I watched every play of this game and the Bears’ final drive was critical. The Bears’ deserved to win, but their Special Teams let them down. To me it’s simple--you have to kick the ball deep at the end of the game.

Marion Barber, Cowboys. Barber is a warrior. He took so many hits against the Cardinals on Sunday, but he kept getting up. The huge screen play that Barber scored on in the 4th quarter was highlight reel material. Barber only had 45 yards on 17 carries, but he added 11 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. With Romo and Felix Jones out with injuries, Barber should put up big stats every week.

Le’Ron McClain, Ravens. Wow, not sure what happened to the Ravens and McClain this week. Possibly, the physical games they have played the last two weeks caught up with their young running back and aging defense. McClain was awful. He had 2 rushing attempts for -2 yards. He also fumbled. He finished the game with negative Fantasy points. Big loss for me.

Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons. Jenkins is only owned in 15% of Fantasy leagues and he only has been played 5% of the time by Fantasy owners. He had two big catches in the very first Falcons’ offensive possession. It looked like with Roddy White banged up that Jenkins was going to have a great game. However, he only caught two more passes the rest of the day. Jenkins did make the play of the game with his 26 yard catch to set up the game winning field goal. Based on the big catch at the end, I am calling this a tie.

Sit’em

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts. The Ravens killed me in a bunch of different ways. Manning was great against the Ravens; and Marvin Harrison might be back. Manning was 19-28 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. The 67 yard touchdown to Harrison seemed like old times.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Rodgers finished the game 21-30 for 208 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. He also picked up 23 more yards rushing with a touchdown and a fumble. Rodgers was superb. Although he did not pass for a lot of yards, he was able to get the Packers a win and put up 21 Fantasy points. I am officially off the “Rodgers is not Favre” bandwagon.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Tough week for the West Virginia product. Slaton finished the game with 15 carries for 58 yards. He was able to grab another Fantasy point with a 3 yard reception. Although he had a sub-par game this week, Slaton is a solid number 2 running back. The Texans’ passing game will continue to open up running room for Slaton.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. I thought Jones-Drew would be limited by an injury, but he was forced to play most of the game after the Broncos knocked Fred Taylor out of the game. Jones-Drew came up with a huge performance. He carried the ball 22 for 125 yards and 2 TDs. He added 23 yards receiving. The Broncos’ defense continues to give up big games by opposing running backs.

Randy Moss, Patriots. This game might be what the Patriots are like this year on the road against a good NFL team. Moss looked disinterested. He finished 3 catches for 26 yards. Patriots’ fans better get prepared for more of this kind of game.

Totals: 5-4-1 (Overall 31-22-5)

My Picks

Wins: Saints, Dolphins, Jets, Lions, Jaguars, Packers, Chargers
Losses: Bears, Ravens, Panthers, Redskins, Niners, Cowboys, Giants
Total: 7-7 (Overall 50-35-3)

Fantasy Games. My teams are struggling, but I have a chance to get a win depending on how well Braylon Edwards plays against the Giants. My opponent is behind by 9 points, but he has Edwards and Kellen Winslow playing against the Giants. Luckily for me, Winslow is out, so I just need the Giants to stop Edwards. My big worry is the garbage time when Brady Quinn gets into the game and tries to force the ball to Edwards. Stay tuned. If you watched the game, you know Braylon Edwards had a monster game. I ended up going 0-2 this week in Fantasy.

Great Football Weekend! I watched parts of 9 different college and pro games this weekend. You could write a week’s worth of blogs about all the crazy plays and big performances this week. It is not hard to see why football has become so popular in this country. In addition to football, the MLB playoffs have been in full swing—this is one of the best months to be a sports fan.

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 6

2008-10-11T08:24:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. I have a strong feeling that the Niners are going to win this game, but McNabb is going to put up huge numbers this week. Bryant Westbrook is a game time decision. One hard hit could knock Westbrook and his sore ribs out of the game. To win, McNabb will have to throw 40+ times. Look for McNabb to throw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Kyle Orton, Bears. Orton’s bandwagon is filling up fast. His Fantasy numbers have increased each of the past two games. The key to Chicago’s success is strong offensive line play. The running game with Matt Forte has opened up throwing options for Orton. Plus, Orton has a great match up this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons won last week, but their secondary has been getting torched by quarterbacks all year.

Marion Barber, Cowboys. Barber is on one of my Fantasy teams. He usually is a must starter, but the Cowboys have limited his touches the last two games. Against Arizona, look for Barber to bounce back in a big way. This game will be a high scoring shoot out. Expect the Cowboys to build a lead and then rely on Barber and Felix Jones to control the clock in the 2nd half.

Le’Ron McClain, Ravens. Since his game against the Steelers two weeks ago, McClain has been on my radar. He is huge and difficult to bring down. He also catches the football very well out of the backfield. Start McClain for two reasons--Willis McGahee is banged up and the Ravens play an undersized, struggling Colts’ defense.

Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons. Wide receiver is the most volatile position in Fantasy. Picking the right starters each week is usually a gamble. Starting Jenkins is a risk, but he could be a big part of the Falcons’ offense this week. The Bears should be focused on shutting down Roddy White. Also, White might not be at full strength. I see Jenkins catching a long touchdown pass from Matt Ryan.

Sit’em

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts. You probably have to start Manning because of how high you drafted him; but if you have another option at QB this week, consider another starter. The Ravens have shut down every quarterback this year. Their defense is definitely back with a vengeance. Unless the Colts run the football with Joseph Addai, they are in for a long and physical game.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. I know, I know. Rodgers is the 3rd best player in Fantasy points. You have to start him. Maybe not. Rodgers is hurt, and his match up this week against Seattle decreases his value. Seattle must play well this week. At home in Quest Field, the Seahawks shut down Rodgers and the Packers.

Steve Slaton, Texans. Slaton has emerged from obscurity to become a solid No. 2 Fantasy running back, but this week he comes back to reality. The Dolphins’ defense is underrated. They shut down San Diego last week. And, I am not sure the Texans can bounce back after that devastating loss to the Colts. Slaton is a future starter but it depends on his match up.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. This pick might not be fair, because Jones-Drew is battling an ankle injury. The problem is that he tries to play hurt and is not that effective. If you have Fred Jones of the Jags, start him instead.

Randy Moss, Patriots. Matt Cassel’s first prime time game = a terrible performance. Moss will get some targets and catches, but he will not be able to get deep this week. The Chargers secondary led my Antonio Cromartie rises to the challenge this week and keeps Moss out of the end zone.

My Picks

Bears -3 @Falcons - Bears
Cowboys -5 @Cardinals - Cowboys
Packers -1 @Seahawks - Packers
@Chargers -5 Patriots - Chargers
Eagles -4.5 @Niners - Niners
@Saints -6.5 Raiders - Saints
@Colts -3.5 Ravens - Ravens
@Texans -3 Dolphins - Dolphins
@Jets -9 Bengals - Jets
@Broncos -3 Jaguars - Jaguars
@Buccaneers -1.5 Panthers - Panthers
Giants -7.5 @Browns - Giants
@Vikings -13 Lions - Lions
@Redskins -13 Rams - Redskins

Fantasy Games. I drafted Ryan Grant with my second round pick and have not even played him in a game this year. He has to start for me this week because Marshawn Lynch is on a bye. Grant needs to come up with a big game and maybe a couple of touchdowns. The TE position has killed me all year. This week I picked up Dustin Keller of the Jets. I have been on Team Favre since July, so maybe that move will work out this week.

State of the Union. Here is an anecdote to illuminate the sad state of our economy. Tonight after work, I went to the local liquor store to buy beer. A year ago, I probably buy a twelve pack of a quality beer. I saw a 6 pack of Icehouse that had a wrong price sticker on it. The store just forgot to remove the old, marked down price. I grabbed that 6 pack like it was a pre-foreclosure 4 bedroom home in Buckhead for $200,000. Getting any kind of deal right now is tremendous, but a little sad.

Quick Slants - Week 5

2008-10-08T19:00:00.000-07:00

Waiver Wire:

If you are looking for someone to pick up this week to fill in for Big Ben, do not pick up Sage Rosenfels. After his total melt down against the Colts, he should be banished by Coach Kubiak for a few weeks. If you are desperate this week, take a hard look at three veteran QBs that are available in most leagues--Chad Pennington, Gus Frerotte, and Marc Bulger. I quickly am getting on the Miami Dolphins’ bandwagon. Pennington’s value is raised by the Dolphins’ commitment to the running game and the return to form of Ronnie Brown. Pennington always has spread the football around to many different receivers. He is capable of winning you a game when your #1 QB is on a bye week. Frerotte benefits from the running game as well. Maybe the bright lights of Monday Night Football are clouding my judgment, but Frerotte reminded me of Kyle Orton this week. The one drawback is that in no way can you count on Bernard Berrian playing well each week. As for Bulger, a few years back he led my team to a Fantasy title in the Kellen Winslow Friendship League. He has a Fantasy kryptonite quality. He could be good or he could be out of the lineup in a few weeks.

Everyone is going to jump on DeAngelo Williams this week. If you can get him, he is a great pick up. The Williams and Johnathan Stewart backfield combination for Carolina is going to be productive all year. Depending on the week, these guys are going to be splitting carries and Fantasy points. Both running backs are solid #2 options. The second running back to take a hard look at this week is Kevin Faulk of the Patriots. I still am a Patriots’ doubter and I actually dropped Faulk last week, but if Moss plays hard and is a deep threat, the field is opened up for the running backs.

At wide receiver, the choices are pretty slim. Slot receivers might be the way to go, but do not count on these guys to carry you to wins. Wes Welker is going to start being a bigger factor for the Patriots. If Royal is hurt for Denver, take a chance on Brandon Stokely. I think Cutler likes throwing between the numbers and Stokely will play a bigger role if Royal is out for extended time. My favorite pick up is still Antwaan Randle El. He should get more targets as teams double Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. Finally, a guy way off the radar is Mike Walker of Jacksonville. Garrard has few people to throw to and Walker is a big target downfield.

My Fantasy teams are struggling at the Tight End and Defense position. I have been searching for answers all year. Defensively, I had to pick up the Falcons and the Jets to try to fill spots and get some points. Clearly, I am not comfortable going into games with these defenses. Basically, I have given up on the tight end position. I guess take a shot at Alge Crumpler. Maybe, Justin Peelle from Atlanta. O-Coordinator Mike Mularkey likes to use the tight end especially in the red zone. The Falcons scored on a great 4th down play against Green Bay when Peelle sprinted across the back of the formation and into the flat. Keep in mind, I live in ATL and am forced to watch the Falcons, so that may bias my analysis of Peelle.

My kicker strategy is to carry only one on the roster. This week my guy Rob Bironas is on a bye, so I have to pick someone up. In this situation, I like going with Janikowski. He is capable of making a couple of 50 yarders. After this week, I drop the new guy and go back to Bironas.

State of the Union: The interest in these debates is incredible. I have watched all three without changing the channel. My wife and I usually watch CNN. McCain looked old. I really liked Soledad O’Brien’s shoes on Tuesday night. When she is in Columbus for these debates, I wonder what cool bars she frequents.

Wrap Up - Week 5

2008-10-06T20:52:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Kyle Orton, Bears. Once in a while predicting Fantasy you just know a guy is going to have a great game. As soon as I saw Orton’s match up against the Lions, I thought he would be a great waiver wire pick up and play this week. Orton finished the game with 334 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. Orton is improving and has value with more than half of the season left to play.

Matt Schaub / Sage Rosenfels, Texans. Rosenfels played great for about 55 minutes. He had 246 yards passing with a 5 yard TD pass to Andre Johnson. Johnson had a monster game. Rosenfels also had 16 rushing yards and one interception. The two huge fumbles at the end of the game killed the Texans. I like Rosenfels’ numbers, but the huge mistakes at the end are too much to overcome. Call this a tie.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. Was the Patriots’ game a fluke? No chance. Brown and the Dolphins came up big against San Diego. Brown lined up in the shotgun 12 more times this week and averaged over 4 yards per play. He finished the game with 133 combined rushing and receiving yards including a 5 yard rushing touchdown out of the direct snap formation. You must start Brown every week.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Grant entered Week 5 as the 56th ranked running back. In most leagues, he was a very high draft pick. A great sign for Grant owners is that he was not listed on the Packers’ injury report this week. He ended up with 83 combined rushing and receiving yards and had 18 carries. Do not give up on Grant yet. I watched the whole game against the Falcons; and Grant’s explosive running style is very close to being back in action.

Eddie Royal, Broncos. Royal sprained his ankle on a punt return during the 3rd quarter. Up to that point, he had 3 catches for 23 yards. The big question will be whether or not this nagging injury keeps Royal out of the line up. Clearly, this pick was a loss.

Sit’em

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks. Very poor outing for Hasselbeck. I am telling you dealing with New York family issues has to be a factor. Hasselbeck may have suffered a knee injury against the Giants. He threw for 105 yards and had an interception. Hasselbeck is a candidate to be released if you are adding a new player this week.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. Ouch. Johnson had a huge game last week, but his performance against the Panthers has to be one of the worse in his career. He had seven rushing attempts for two yards. His statistics are so low that I had to write out the numbers. You really have to start or sit Johnson based on the Chiefs’ opponent each week.

Lee Evans, Bills. Evans proved me wrong for the second time this year. Evans had two receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown. He added 22 rushing yards. His 87 yard bomb from JP Losman was one of the lone bright spots for the Bills on Sunday. Losman and Evans are a good combination, so if Trent Edwards can not play, keep playing Evans.

Greg Jennings, Packers. Will Aaron Rodgers play? Rodgers played and played great. He clearly was injured, but made some great throws. Jennings caught a 25 yard touchdown pass and finished with 4 catches for 87 yards. Jennings has become one of the best Fantasy players in the NFL. I will not doubt him the rest of the season unless, of course, Rodgers starts missing games.

Minnesota Vikings Defense. The Vikings’ defense is playing well after a shaky start. For a brief moment, I thought the Saints had a chance to score on every possession. Antoine Winfield (OSU product) made some big plays. Vikings look like they are going to win this game.

Totals: 5-4-1 (Overall 26-18-4)

My Picks

Wins: Panthers, Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Redskins, Cardinals, Bengals, Steelers
Losses: Packers, Colts, Niners, Saints
Push: Titans, Broncos
Total: 8-4-2 (Overall 43-28-3)

Fantasy Games. In my two leagues, I had great match ups against teams that had struggled so far this season. In my Dallas league, I was crushed. At one point, the score was 79-27. I closed the gap some, but I need a 40 point night from Reggie Bush to win the game. In my Atlanta league, I played an owner that had yet to win a game this year. In his defense, he had lots of guys on byes last week. His team played well and my guys were terrible. Marion Barber has not scored a touchdown in three weeks. Right now, the game is tied 60-60, but he has the Minnesota Vikings defense. He might have blundered by talking trash on the message board about getting a win, because the Saints might just put up a ton of points in tonight’s game. Hopefully, Reggie Bush morphs into Gale Sayers and scores about 5 touchdowns in this game.

Steeler Football. Why does it seem like every game the Steelers play is a rivalry game? Here is the answer--when the Steelers go on the road, their fans travel as well. When you pay a couple of grand for your season tickets and then you have to sit by Steelers’ fans, you are not happy. Add to that fact that Steelers’ fans that travel are probably talking trash in the stands and you have a rivalry game every week.

Baseball Playoffs. I just watched Kevin Youkilis make a great play at 3rd base against Torii Hunter and the Angels. This post season is the coming out party for Youkilis. One night he plays first base and the next night he is making All Star caliber plays at third base. Great camera shot of Youkilis taking deep breaths and trying to catch his breath after that great play. Great athlete, great ball player. A final question on a baseball subject, is there anything in sports more demoralizing than a dominating starting pitcher?

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 5

2008-10-04T10:59:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Kyle Orton, Bears. Maybe these national television games mess up my evaluations, but Orton made some great throws last week against the Eagles. This week he was my recommendation to pick up on the waiver wire. The Bears are putting up points and their running game is working. Look for Orton to have a big game against a very weak Detroit defense.

Matt Schaub, Texans. Indianapolis has to be very careful coming off their bye week and going on the road against Houston. The Texans should have won last week against Jacksonville. This game could be a New Orleans Saints situation from two years ago. Texans return home to a great crowd. Schaub always moves the ball up and down the field. If Andre Johnson can make some big plays, Schaub is looking at a 250 yard game with 2 touchdowns.
***12:10 pm - Sunday. Schaub is sick and Sage Rosenfels will start. Rosenfels should fill in admirably for Schaub, if you have him go with Rosenfels in this spot.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. Was the Patriots’ game a fluke? I don’t think so. The Dolphins probably add a couple of more plays for Brown with a direct snap. The Chargers are flying across the country and their defense has given up points all year long. This is a high-scoring game with Brown having several chances to score in the red zone.

Ryan Grant, Packers. Against the Falcons, this week is the time for Ryan Grant to bust out. He signed a new contract this summer and has not produced. My situation is typical of Grant owners. I drafted him with the first pick of the 2nd round of the draft and have not even played him in a Fantasy game. Most owners have given up on Grant, but with the Aaron Rodgers injury he has to have a great game for the Packers to win.

Eddie Royal, Broncos. The Broncos are at home against a solid Tampa Bay defense. The Broncos still will put up points on Tampa Bay. This game should be another high scoring affair. Royal has been great for a rookie this year. Playing opposite Brandon Marshall, he is close to a must start every week.

Sit’em

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks. The inability of West coast teams to travel to the East coast and play well is well-documented. Seattle was destroyed by the Bills in week 1. Their injured receivers return and that will help Hasselbeck out, but he personally has even more distractions in New York. His brother’s wife probably hounds him for tickets. The Giants defensive line hounds him all day on Sunday. Poor outing for Hasselbeck.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. Johnson had a monster game last week against Denver. Most owners probably are happy and ready to start him every week, but be cautious. This team is the same one that had lost 12 straight games. The Panthers stack the box against Johnson, Peppers goes after the quarterback, and the Panthers win.

Lee Evans, Bills. Bills’ fans must have uttered a simultaneous groan when the news came out about Evans’ contract extension. Evans received a pretty large dollar guarantee for a guy that has been mostly inconsistent. Big party at Evans’ house this week leads to a pedestrian performance this week at Arizona. Too hot out there to play football anyway.

Greg Jennings, Packers. Will Aaron Rodgers play? The answer is critical for Fantasy owners this week. If he plays, the Packers’ wide receivers increase in value. Jennings has been great this year, but do not start him if Rodgers can not play.

Minnesota Vikings Defense. Minnesota was a very high draft pick in both of my drafts this season. In the past few years, that defense is one of the highest scoring in the NFL. In their home game against Carolina, they scored a huge game winning touchdown. However, if you have another option this week, you have to consider playing another defense. The Saints are going to move the ball and score against anybody. Brees will throw the ball 50+ times if they get behind.

My Picks

@Panthers -9.5 Chiefs - Panthers
Bears -3.5 @Lions - Bears
@Packers -7 Falcons - Packers
Chargers -6.5 @Dolphins - Dolphins
@Giants -7.5 Seahawks - Giants
@Eagles -6 Redskins - Redskins
Titans -3 @Ravens - Ravens
Colts -3.5 @Texans - Texans
@Broncos -3 Buccaneers - Broncos
@Cardinals -1 Bills - Cardinals
Patriots -3.5 @Niners - Niners
@Cowboys -17 Bengals - Bengals
@Jaguars -4.5 Steelers - Steelers
@ Saints -3.5 Vikings - Saints

Fantasy Games. Mediocrity is the word that defines my Fantasy teams so far. My record is 2-2 in both my leagues. I was able to acquire Muhsin Muhammed on the waiver wire and he quickly went into the starting line-up. My biggest decision this week is which QB to start Ben Roethlisberger or David Garrard. I have been going back and forth all week. I am 90% sure I am going with Garrard at home. Big Ben is banged up with a suspect running game; and he is coming off a Monday night game. Garrard had a big game last week and he is always a threat to run for a touchdown.

Odds and Ends. O.J. found guilty. It makes you think about what you were doing 13 long years ago. I was working in a mall and sleeping on the floor of an empty apartment. If you believe that finding his plane means that adventurer Steve Fossett is dead, you do not understand conspiracy theory. I would be surprised if Fossett is not alive and well and living on the beach somewhere. Finally, I watched The Hills this week. The scene in which Doug is hammering Stephanie and she is listening in the bedroom (where you know they hooked up) was the most real thing I have scene on TV in a while. Check out CNN's new anchor Brook Baldwin from Atlanta. You know that scene happens every weekend amongst small groups of friends. Oklahoma and Penn State look very good right now.

Quick Slants - Week 4

2008-10-01T17:44:00.000-07:00

Waiver Wire:

The Browns, Raiders, Rams, and Jets have byes this week. Romeo Crennel should be on the hot seat, but the wild Raiders’ press conference and Scott Linehan’s firing by the Rams have kept Crennel out of the national headlines. NFL coaches have to be hoping that this idea of firing the head coach during the bye week does not catch on in what is usually a copy cat league. Owners who took Derek Anderson high in the draft must be feeling great this week, because they can start their back up quarterback without worrying about wasting that high draft pick on Anderson, or about benching Anderson and having him throw for 5 touchdowns.

I cannot believe that I am about to write this, but the best quarterback to pick up this week is Kyle Orton of the Bears. He has had two straight weeks of above average Fantasy points which includes a big week against the vaunted Eagles’ defense. The Bears have a solid running game with Matt Forte. Orton also has a great match up this week against the Detroit Lions. If Forte stays healthy, Orton is a spot starter for Fantasy owners for the rest of the season. The one other guy that still intrigues me is JaMarcus Russell. The Raiders’ situation should be better with a new coach—the situation cannot get any worse unless Al Davis gets caught running a dog fighting ring.

After this Monday’s game, the Ravens’ Le’Ron McClain is the top running back to try and nab off the wire. He is probably not available if you are in a competitive league. He is huge and should get most of the Ravens’ goal line carries. Plus, McGahee runs so hard that he is always an injury concern for Fantasy owners.

No matter how bad your running back situation is, you have to be in a better position than Coach Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Basically, three of the running backs will be out this week against Jacksonville. Mewelde Moore is a solid waiver wire pick up, but only if you need to start him for one or two weeks. He is not someone to pick up and sit on your bench. Moore will have plenty of work this week, but he is not that durable for a long run. The Bills’ Fred Jackson is a capable Fantasy player. He is a great handcuff if you have Marshawn Lynch. I would pick him up to handcuff to Lynch, but I am patiently waiting for Ryan Grant or Ray Rice to do something this year! Some off the wall running backs to pay attention to are Dominic Rhodes, Ladell Betts, and Jason Wright of the Browns. For a long range waiver claim, go with Rhodes.

When I saw the Jets score Sunday, I figured my guy Chansi Stuckey had at least a TD. Stuckey was shutout. Ouch. Don’t give up on Stuckey, because the Jets are going to keep throwing the football. Anquan Boldin is going to be out of action for awhile, but do not expect the Cardinals to change their offense. Take a look at any of the Cardinals wide receivers, but if you can acquire Steve Breaston, make that move. In my Dallas league, three Saints’ receivers are free agents. Any of these guys are worth taking a chance on if you are hurting at wide receiver. I still like Miles Austin from the Cowboys. Another guy that you probably can pick up after the waiver wire is Antwaan Randle El. He is a notoriously slow starter, but against the Cowboys he was getting open for Jason Campbell. Other WRs that are solid pick ups are Bernard Berrian, Arnaz Battle, and any of those Seahawk receivers that are returning from injury.

State of the Union: This whole Wall Street bail out situation is a mess. I really cannot blame Travis Henry for trying to make a few dollars on the side. Can you imagine what that guy has to pay in child support each month? Someone needs to do a breakdown of that on ESPN. While watching CNN on Sunday night, my wife and I tried to come up with a list of people in the United States that Americans could trust to do what is right for the country. Anyone could be on the list, but the main criteria was, can we totally trust this man or woman? The sad part is that eight years ago I would have immediately said Colin Powell. Not anymore. John Stewart? Take a minute and think about it--not that easy to come up with anyone.

Pop Culture: That Al Davis press conference was like a bad beer commercial. Frank Caliendo should do a spoof this Sunday on the Fox pregame show. Anyway, when I saw Stephanie Pratt visiting Audrina when LC was in Italy, I knew something crazy was going to happen on The Hills. I like this guy Doug’s style. Missed the episode this week, but will catch it on the internet. As soon as some extra cash is available, the laptop will be hooked up to the flat screen TV.

Wrap Up - Week 4

2008-09-29T19:46:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Carson Palmer, Bengals. Heard on Atlanta sports talk today that for several days Marvin Lewis had been telling people Palmer probably would not play and could not grip the football. A press release might have been nice. Palmer did not play, so that is big loss for me.

JT O’Sullivan, Niners. JT went 18-36 for 257 yards and a touchdown. That sounds great until you figure in the 2 interceptions and 6 sacks. O’Sullivan put up some Fantasy points for owners and for the Saints’ defense. I am calling this a win.

Matt Forte, Bears. Forte finished the game with 85 total yards rushing and receiving. Clearly, this was not a great game for Fantasy owners, but Forte was vital to the Bears’ offense. He is the only running back they can put into the game with confidence.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh. Wow, do I need Hines Ward to come through with a big game tonight. He must score a touchdown. This is the worst game I have watched the Steelers play in a long time. Hines might not even have a catch in this game. No matter what happens I am calling this a loss and the game is still in the 3rd quarter. Hines finished with 57 yards on 2 catches.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. He finished the game with only 81 combined rushing and receiving yards. Lynch should get into the end zone every week. Against St. Louis, he has to at least get a touchdown—I was counting on 2 TDs this week.

Sit’em

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. The Falcons’ defense let me down. Delhomme passed for 294 yards and 2 TDs. This included a 56 yard touchdown pass to Steve Smith. With Smith back, Delhomme has some weapons to spread the football around to on offense. Muhsin Muhammed is a great number two wide receiver and complement to the speedster Smith. In a weak division, Delhomme is capable of scoring in the high teens in Fantasy each week.

Philip Rivers, San Diego. Going into week 4, Rivers was the number 1 Fantasy scorer. The Raiders were able to shut him down, but LT ran wild on Oakland in the 4th quarter. Rivers finished the game 14-25 for 180 yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions. Rivers is still a must start, but I always get nervous when everyone is comparing a QB to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

Michael Turner, Falcons. 56 yards on 18 carries is not even an average game for Turner. Everyone’s expectations have been raised by his quick start for the Falcons. Depending on your running back situation, Turner might only be a start when the Falcons play at home. He is the main option at running back, so he is going to have opportunities every week. This is clearly a win for me.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. The Cardinals versus Jets game was unbelievable. Fantasy points were piling up for lots of different players. For some reason, I thought this game was going to be low-scoring and be played in a rain storm. That prediction could not have been more wrong. Fitzgerald had another solid game with 122 yards on 8 catches.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings. With 80 yards rushing, Peterson matched what I thought he would accumulate yardage wise. My problem is that he scored 2 touchdowns. Peterson has not had the monster weeks like he did last year, but he is clearly one of the top 2 running backs in the NFL. Play him every week and forget what I said about him losing a step!

Totals: 3-6-1 (Overall 21-14-3)

My Picks

Wins: Texans, Panthers, Saints, Jets, Buccaneers, Titans, Chargers, Redskins
Losses: Bengals, Broncos, Rams, Eagles, Steelers
Total: 8-5 (Overall 35-24-1)

Eliminator Contest. My season is over. The Chiefs just ran over the Broncos on Sunday. The Broncos defense was awful and Larry Johnson had a great day. The coronation of Jay Cutler as the next John Elway will have to wait.

Fantasy Games. I won my Dallas league game and moved to 2-2 despite getting 0 points from Bills’ TE Robert Royal and 0 points from the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. Starting David Garrard in place of Roethlisberger paid off with a big game from Garrard. My receivers, Santana Moss and Jericho Cotchery, exploded for big points. In my Atlanta league, I made some terrible plays this week. I started Selvin Young instead of Edgerrin James, because I figured Denver would put up a ton of points against Kansas City. In the first few weeks, I have been alternating Donald Driver and Tory Holt at WR. Driver was awful yesterday. Right now, I am 18 points behind with the Steelers’ defense and Hines Ward left to play tonight. Ended up losing my game by 3 points. I really needed a touchdown from Hines tonight.

*On a personal note, I could not be more frustrated right now by the Steelers’ performance tonight. Steelers look confused on both sides of the ball. Finally, Hines Ward just caught a pass. Okay, let me watch this comeback. Steelers won on a Jeff Reed field goal in overtime.

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 4

2008-09-26T19:21:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Carson Palmer, Bengals. The Bengals will ride the confidence of last week’s game and put up lots of points this week versus the Browns. This game could be a shoot out. Palmer will throw for a couple of touchdowns and near 300 yards. Expect Palmer to make a strong effort to find Ocho Cinquo.

JT O’Sullivan, Niners. There’s something about JT. Niners are scoring lots of points and the Saints are giving up lots of points. O’Sullivan has weapons at almost every skill position. The wide receivers are deep and solid if not spectacular. Plus, Gore is going to be hard to handle for the Saints.

Matt Forte, Bears. This pick seems to be in the wrong place after what the Eagles did to the Steelers’ running game last week; but there is a big difference between blitzing at home and blitzing on the road. The Cowboys were able to run against the Eagles. If Forte can get off to a fast start, he runs for over 100 yards on Sunday night.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh. This game has all the ingredients in the recipe for a big game for Ward--national TV game versus the hated Ravens, Steelers coming off a loss, and a frenzied home crowd. Expect Ward to catch at least one touchdown pass. He also will throw a couple of big blocks and maybe draw one “unnecessary roughness” penalty. Sometimes, those penalties set a physical tone for the game. Here we go Steelers, here we go!

Marshawn Lynch, Bills. I know, I know, Marshawn is a must start every week. With the risky picks in the next section, I need a guaranteed win. Lynch on turf against the Rams is perfect conditions for a huge Fantasy game. If Coach Jauron lets him play, Lynch might be looking at 3 touchdowns.

Sit’em

Jake Delhomme, Panthers. The Panthers versus the Falcons is going to be a low scoring, physical game. Both teams are going to run the football and eat up the clock. Delhomme is a leader, but I do not see him throwing the football downfield. The short passing game works to win NFL games, but it does not mean big statistics for Delhomme. The Falcons’ defense is underrated, and John Abraham should be all over Delhomme.

Philip Rivers, San Diego. San Diego has a lot of weapons on offense, but I am not totally sold on Rivers. Every week when a QB has a great game, the fans and the columnists overreact and anoint the guy the best quarterback in the league. When teams play against divisional rivals, the games are very unpredictable. The strength of the Raiders’ defense is in their secondary. San Diego wins a close low scoring contest.

Michael Turner, Falcons. Turner has been a dominant force in the Falcons’ two home games. On the road, he was not effective against Tampa Bay. Coach John Fox and the Carolina Panthers are going to take away the running game. Matt Ryan will have to make the plays to win for the Falcons. Look for Turner to have around 80 yards rushing, but no touchdowns.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. The players in this section are Fantasy studs. The big reason Fitzgerald makes this list is that the weather is supposed to be terrible in New York this weekend. The Cardinals passing game might not be able to function if the weather is bad. Also, Fitzgerald is the key to the offense and the Jets have Darelle Revis at cornerback. Revis should draw the task of shutting down Fitzgerald.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings. The Tennessee Titans defense will stop Peterson. I think Peterson is not the same back on grass as he is on turf. The Titans bandwagon is filling up and another win this Sunday will make them 4-0. Has Peterson lost a step?

My Picks

@Bengals -3.5 Browns - Bengals
@Jaguars -7.5 Texans - Texans
@Panthers -7.5 Falcons - Panthers
Broncos -9 @Chiefs - Broncos
@Saints -6 Niners - Saints
@Jets -1 Cardinals - Jets
@Buccaneers -1.5 Packers - Buccaneers
@Titans -3 Vikings - Titans
Chargers -7 @Raiders - Chargers
Bills -8 @Rams - Rams
@Cowboys -11 Redskins - Redskins
Eagles -3 @Bears - Eagles
@Steelers -5.5 Ravens - Steelers

Eliminator Contest. After that narrow escape last Sunday, I want a stone cold lead pipe lock. At first glance, I do not see any of those. Most of the time before I make a pick I consider the Vegas odds. In Vegas, your money and your job depend on setting these lines. Also, these guys have inside information from all kinds of sources. According to the spreads, this week I am taking the Broncos to beat the Chiefs.

Trade Proposals. I tried to make a blockbuster trade Tuesday night in my Atlanta league. I offered Kurt Warner and Anthony Fasano to another owner in exchange for Randy Moss and Trent Edwards. Tony Romo is my weekly starting quarterback, so giving up Warner for Edwards is not a major sacrifice. Plus, my potential trading partner lost Jeremy Shockey his only TE. Of course, he quickly rejected the deal. He said he was worried that Warner was going to get hurt. Warner is like mortgage derivatives—you might as well take a chance and make some money on them, because the government will bail you out if something bad happens. Now, I am determined to make a deal just for the sake of making a deal.

Handcuffs. On Sunday night, one of my friends that checks out this blog asked me what “handcuffs” means in Fantasy football. A handcuff is when you draft (or acquire) one of your starting players’ back up in case your starter gets hurt. For example, two years ago I drafted LaDainian Tomlinson with the first pick in the draft. Then, in a later round, I took Michael Turner. Turner is handcuffed to Tomlinson. The value of the move is determined by draft position and if you ever even play the other guy. Here is the danger--the back up starts playing well; and you start thinking about playing them both at the same time. This week I was able to win a game against an owner that started Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw ended up having a terrible week, but when you do not play the handcuff / backup player and they play well it’s frustrating.

Quick Slants - Week 3

2008-09-24T16:37:00.000-07:00

Waiver Wire:

The bye weeks begin this week. Six teams with big name players have the week off. Most Fantasy owners already have made a couple of moves to tweak their rosters; but this week should see a big increase in waiver wire and trade activity. Besides the major injury to Tom Brady, top tier quarterbacks are staying healthy. A few quarterbacks have been benched for poor play. The backups on these teams might be able to step up. My advice is to look at a couple of young guys that have already been playing. JaMarcus Russell and Matt Ryan are available in most leagues. Be aware that Russell has a bye week next week. That fact could work to your advantage, because you can pick him up and sit him for one more week. After three weeks, he has more Fantasy points than Peyton Manning. I have watched the Falcons and like Matt Ryan. He has weapons around him. He is an accurate passer. He is worth a start when the Falcons play at home. Other quarterbacks: I like Griese (and keep an eye on Kevin Kolb if McNabb can't play), but stay away from Collins, Huard, Quinn, and Trent Green. I pretty much can guarantee Green not lasting the whole game this weekend.

At the running back position, the big move this week is to go after Rashad Mendenhall. In deeper and competitive leagues, he is probably already taken. I have seen some columnists saying to not play him against the Ravens. If he does not fumble, Mendenhall will gain yards against the Ravens. Their wins have come against the Bengals and Browns! Plus, the Steelers traditionally can run the football against the Ravens. The other player to seriously consider is Correll Buckhalter. Westbrook is going to be hobbled and Buckhalter fits right into Westbrook’s role in the offense. The big drawback is that every week Westbrook will not practice and then try to play on Sunday. Every week, you will be frantically checking the active / inactive list to see if Westbrook is going to play. I still like Warrick Dunn and Michael Bush, but stay away from Leron McClain of the Ravens until you see if McGahee is going to return to full strength.

The wide receiver position makes Fantasy Football great. Every week is different for these players. Guys come out of nowhere for big games and then disappear for weeks. Even top draft picks, like Terrell Owens, are not guaranteed to get opportunities. Managing your WRs and picking the right guys to play is key to winning your games. I am still promoting Bobby Meachem and Chansi Stuckey. Favre is looking for this guy. Check out the 49ers’ receivers. JT O’Sullivan is getting better each week and you know Coach Martz is going to through the football. Other guys I like are Roscoe Parrish and Miles Austin. I think Patrick Crayton’s bad year is going to continue. Players I don’t like are Ike Clayton, Antonio Bryant, Mark Clayton, Brandon Lloyd, and Hank Baskett.

You probably need someone to replace the oft-injured Jeremy Shockey. The TE position has killed me this year. I have four total on two teams and last week I played the wrong two. That means take this advice for what it is worth. Pick up Donald Lee of the Green Bay Packers.

Pop Culture / State of the Union. The economy is keeping me from checking out www.MTV.com and watching The Hills. Whitney could probably do something to get this country moving again. George Bush’s press conference comes on in a few minutes. When someone in this Administration tells me that unless we do something there is going to be a calamity, I pause and think about how often these guys have been wrong. That list is endless. I have to agree with CNN’s Lou Dobbs tonight--we have to reject politics by fear and threats of disaster. We need to know what this bailout plan involves. Debate and intelligent discussion must occur. I actually found myself nodding my head when Pat Buchanan was talking about this issue. Scary. E-mail your national representatives and tell them not to bail these guys out!

Wrap Up - Week 3

2008-09-22T14:59:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Jason Campbell, Redskins. Campbell orchestrated a great win for the Redskins. He was 22-30 for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns. Also, he added 26 yards scrambling for important first downs. With Cooley, Moss, and Randle El, Campbell is a must start for Fantasy owners.

Matt Ryan, Falcons. Why was the Georgia Dome so empty? Were people just late arriving to the game because of church? It is a shame, because Ryan managed a great game. He finished with 192 yards passing and 15 yards rushing. He came through for me with the predicted long touchdown pass to Roddy White. Ryan’s accuracy makes him a player the Falcons can build a team around. Ryan might be a play when the Falcons are at home.

Michael Bush, Raiders. The Raiders almost pulled off a great upset, but Bush did not come through with a great game. Against a mean-spirited Bills’ defense, he earned a tough 60 combined rushing and receiving yards. I need more though and Bush’s performance goes down as a loss.

Chester Taylor, Vikings. As soon as I saw that Adrian Peterson was going to play, I knew that Taylor would be limited in his opportunities. He managed to gain 66 combined rushing and receiving yards. The Vikings’ defense was relentless. Another loss marked down for my picks.

T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Bengals. Housh had 146 combined receiving and rushing yards with a 17 yard touchdown pass. After 5 total fantasy points in the first two weeks of the season, this game is an explosion for Houshmanzadeh. He had better start playing well, because he is in a contract year! Bengals are a dangerous team if their offense starts playing better.

Sit’em

Matt Cassell, Patriots. The coronation of Cassell will have to wait. He has to find a way to stretch the field and find Randy Moss. Against Miami, he was 19-31 for 131 yards passing with a TD and an interception. With former Steeler Joey Porter in his face, he had a very hard time throwing the football downfield. Now, Moss is basically a non-factor for the Patriots.

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. #5 was 24 for 35 for 196 yards passing. He had a 20 yard touchdown pass to Correll Buckhalter. With a subtraction for an interception, McNabb finished with 8 Fantasy points. He was averaging 19 fppg in the first two weeks. I am calling this a tie.

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. When the statistics ticker on the bottom of my TV screen flashed that Brian Griese threw the ball 67 times, I figured Graham was injured or something. He was nonexistent this week. The Bears dominated the Bucs' run blocking. Graham finished with 16 total yards rushing and receiving for 1 measly Fantasy point.

Braylon Edwards, Browns. To be fair, Edwards is dealing with an injury, but he was active this week. Even with all the dropped passes, Braylon is supposed to be a Pro Bowl quality wide receiver. He totaled 27 combined rushing and receiving yards. Ouch. Browns’ fans will be calling for Brady Quinn this week.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. In most drafts, Holmes was a high wide receiver selection. Most owners figured this year to be a break out year for Santonio. Instead, he is struggling in the Steelers’ offense and Hines Ward has emerged as the main scoring threat. Holmes only could muster 32 combined rushing and receiving yards. Give a ton of credit to the Eagles’ defense which repeatedly sacked Big Ben.

Totals: 7 wins, 2 losses, 1 tie (Overall 18-8-2)

My Picks

Wins: Falcons, Raiders, Titans, Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals, Redskins, Niners, Jaguars, Ravens, Cowboys
Losses: Bears, Rams, Broncos, Steelers, Jets
Total: 11-5 (Overall 27-19-1)

Fantasy Games. This week was another 1-1 record for me in my two Fantasy leagues. But, I had a huge win in the Dallas League. I beat an undefeated team with a great line up. Luckily for me, Terrell Owens was a non-factor in the Sunday night game. In the Atlanta league, I fell to 2-1 with a divisional loss. My opponent had monster games from Drew Brees, Frank Gore, and Reggie Bush.

Eliminator Contest. I ended up picking the Bills to beat the Raiders. About 1/3 of the people in this contest picked the same winner. At 4 pm on Sunday, I was in a panic. Thank goodness for Trent Edwards and Ryan Lindell. Bills win and I survive elimination. My wife was not so lucky. Of course, she picked New England which seemed like a lock to beat the Dolphins. She blamed me, but she should be blaming Ronnie Brown and Joey Porter. We are down to a single entry in this contest.

Trade Proposal. An owner in my Dallas league offered me Desean Jackson and Selvin Young for Reggie Bush. Are you kidding me? Rejecting that trade was a no-brainer. I turned around and offered him Ryan Grant for Reggie Wayne. Grant was a higher draft pick and his value is increasing each week as he gets healthier. I thought that was a fair offer, but he immediately rejected the deal.

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 3

2008-09-20T00:53:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Jason Campbell, Redskins. The Redskins at home are a totally different team than on the road. Last week was a huge confidence builder for Campbell and for Coach Jim Zorn. The running game should be solid against the Cardinals. That fact should open up the field for Campbell and his receiving corps.

Matt Ryan, Falcons. Most of you probably are in a league in which Matty Ice is still available. If you do have him, this is the week to play him against Kansas City. The Falcons’ skill players are faster and more comfortable on the turf field of the Georgia Dome. KC is beat up, down, and the secondary is very young. Look for Ryan to throw for 2 touchdowns, a long completion to Roddy White, and a long screen pass to Jerious Norwood.

Michael Bush, Raiders. Raiders are terrible in the passing game. Every other running back is hurt (McFadden has a steel plate in his shoe?) Bush averaged around 9 yards per carry last week and should take any goal line carries. Raiders probably lose, but Bush is the only player they have to run the football. He should score a touchdown at least.

Chester Taylor, Vikings. Various reports have AD on the shelf this week and not practicing. That should scare Fantasy owners and also Vikings’ fans. Starting Frerotte should help the offense. Even if Peterson plays, Taylor should get plenty of touches on the ground. The bonus for him is that Frerotte will be able to find him in the short passing game. Taylor is great at running screens and picking up yards after the catch.

T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Bengals. What has happened to the Bengals? My spies in Cincinnati assure me that Housh will break out of his slump this week. Bengals are at the Giants which will make life miserable for QB Carson Palmer. This pick looks dumb, but at some point these guys have to break out and have a big game. Right?

Sit’em

Matt Cassell, Patriots. The reports of Cassell’s prowess are greatly exaggerated. The Dolphins have had a couple weeks to study the guy; and they do have guys that pressure the quarterback. The Patriots might run for over 200 yards, but Cassell will not have a good statistical game—no touchdown passes this week.

Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Listen, I think McNabb is great. He was one of my sleepers in a pre-draft column for this blog. He was unbelievable last weekend. The Eagles are going to throw the ball over 40 times this week. Everything is pointing to McNabb having a monster game. Everything except an aggressive, physical Steeler defense. Predicting injuries is not a nice thing, but look out for Blitzburgh’s linebackers.

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is headed to Chicago and the Bears are coming off a tough loss to Carolina. Galloway is out. For some reason, this game feels like a classic 13-3 win for the Bears. Urlacher has a big game and stuffs Graham all day long.

Braylon Edwards, Browns. This one is too easy. Edwards is dropping balls and getting boos from the home crowd. Going on the road does not make anything better. I predict an 0-3 start for the hapless Browns, a Kellen Winslow meltdown (now that is an easy prediction), and Brady Quinn starting for the Browns in Week 4.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers. This pick hurts me. The Steelers are my team. While I think they win the game this week, the passing game is going to suffer. Roethlisberger is hurt and limited to intermediate passes. Plus, the Eagles secondary responds after being embarrassed Monday night and takes Holmes out of the game. Steelers probably score 2 defensive touchdowns and escape with a huge 23-21 road win.

My Picks

@Falcons -5.5 Chiefs - Falcons
@ Bills -9.5 Raiders - Raiders
@ Bears -3 Buccaneers - Bears
@ Titans -5 Texans - Titans
@ Vikings -3.5 Panthers - Vikings
@ Patriots -13 Dolphins - Dolphins
@ Giants -13 Bengals - Bengals
@ Redskins -3 Cardinals - Redskins
@ Niners -4 Lions - Niners
@ Seahawks -9.5 Rams - Rams
@ Broncos -5.5 Saints - Broncos
@ Eagles -3 Steelers - Steelers
@ Colts -5 Jaguars - Jaguars
@ Ravens -2.5 Browns - Ravens
Cowboys -3 @ Packers - Cowboys
@ Chargers -10 Jets - Jets

Eliminator Contest. I need to think about this pick more on Saturday and add it to the post. I want to pick the Falcons, but I just do not have the confidence yet. My wife picked New England to beat Miami. I ended up taking Buffalo to beat Oakland. Early on, these picks look like trouble.

Trade Proposal: I logged onto my Dallas League site, and I had a trade proposal banner waving on the home page. There hardly ever are any trades in this league, because the owners are too smart and too competitive. No one wants to get burned. One of these guys still is living down taking TE Stephen Alexander of Denver with a high draft pick a couple of years back. The proposal is Selvin Young and Desean Jackson for Reggie Bush. This actually makes sense for me because I am weak at WR. I have to consider Jackson’s tendency to make ridiculous errors; and my belief that Michael Pittman is really the Broncos’ goal line back. Plus, I want to say "I told you so" when Bush scores 12 total TDs this year. No way I make this deal. Reggie Bush for Reggie Wayne, maybe?

Ryder Cup. What is Nick Faldo thinking? Hey, I am rooting for America in this, but is Faldo trying to give away the Ryder Cup? Sitting Garcia and Westwood is like Phil Jackson sitting Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant in game 3 of a 5 game series against the Knicks in 1991 (Padraig Harrington clearly is the Jordan on this team). Westwood has scored points in 12 straight matches. Stupid. Maybe Garcia and Westwood questioned the crazy decision to leave Colin Montgomery and Darren Clarke off the team. I would have paid to see Monty today playing against Boo Weekley. That would have been priceless.

Quick Slants - Week 2

2008-09-17T15:43:00.000-07:00

Waiver Wire:

If you are looking for a quarterback on the waiver wire, you are looking at very few options. My advice would be to see if someone in your league will make a trade. Kerry Collins is an option, but he played well last week and did not score many Fantasy points. I do see him starting for the Titans for awhile. The Tampa Bay situation is hazier. Griese and Garcia almost are interchangeable for Coach Jon Gruden. A quarterback that you can take a chance on is Gus Frerotte. He most likely will be starting in Week 4. Depending on your situation, he is worth a gamble. (I actually wrote this part before Coach Brad Childress named Frerotte the starter. Frerotte is a great pick up and a starter depending on the Vikings’ match up).

At the running back position, there are interesting players that should be available in your league. Darren Sproles, backup RB for the Chargers, had a huge game this weekend. He is a big play guy, but you cannot be sure of how many touches he will have week to week. I like Brandon Jackson from Green Bay and Warrick Dunn from Tampa Bay. I have Ryan Grant in my Dallas league. The hamstring injury is clearly bothering him. He barely broke the line of scrimmage against the Lions. Jackson is Grant’s backup and someone to keep in mind. With Galloway’s injury, Dunn is a scoring option for Tampa Bay. He is an older version of Sproles. Earnest Graham is going to carry the rushing load for the Buccaneers, but if you need running back help Dunn should get more opportunities each week.

Wide receiver is always the most volatile position in Fantasy Football. Devery Henderson of the Saints is a perfect example. In week 1, he had a huge game with a touchdown. On Sunday even with the Marques Colston injury, he did not even muster one Fantasy point. Last week, I threw out Jets #3 WR Chansi Stuckey as a possible pick up and he came through for the Jets. Favre likes to hit the slot guy on underneath crossing routes. I have had Amani Toomer in past seasons and he will be solid each week playing opposite Plaxico. For Green Bay, consider WR James Jones, because if Aaron Rodgers stays healthy they will score points every weekend.

Forget about the TE position. I am in no position to comment on this position. Last week, I picked up two guys—one in each league. I started both players and neither guy scored a Fantasy point!

If you think kickers matter, Ryan Longwell is a great pick up. In Minnesota, Longwell kicks indoors for half the season. The Vikings will move the ball with Peterson, but even with Frerotte at quarterback, they have a hard time scoring in the red zone because of their untalented receiving corps. Did you see the horrible dropped pass by their TE last week against Indy? Plus, Longwell has the range to kick 50+ yard field goals.

Pop Culture:

Sometimes, life breaks the right way for you. Terrible, awful (somewhat demoralizing) day at work today. When I arrived home from work, some magic happened. We do not have our cable hooked up, but for some reason when I got home from work, cable was working—a beautiful, crystal clear picture. Maybe, I can watch The Daily Show tonight on cable and not on http://www.hulu.com/. Yes! (in appropriate Marv Albert voice.)

Sometimes, art reflects other art. I am reading the book Into the Wild by Jon Krakauer. Very American story. Very quick read. Check out the book sometime and it will remind you of the Hills theme song lyrics - http://www.stlyrics.com/. LC is trying to find her way in the wilderness of Los Angeles.

Wrap Up - Week 2

2008-09-15T18:33:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Jon Kitna, Lions. My observation that Kitna is aggravating for Fantasy owners was right on the mark. Kitna led the Lions back to take the lead, but at the end of the game, Kitna threw 2 interceptions that resulted in 2 touchdowns for the Packers' defense. Kitna finished with 276 yards passing with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The numbers were decent, but not worthy of a start this week. Call this a loss.

Eli Manning, Giants. Talk about a guy playing with a huge amount of confidence. Manning had a huge game against the Rams. He completed 20 of 29 passes for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns. Three different receivers caught passes for touchdowns. Manning now is a must start for Fantasy owners.

Edgerrin James, Cardinals. The Edge rushed for 55 yards on 18 carries; and in the process, he became only the 14th player in NFL history to surpass 15,000 yards from scrimmage. He is getting the carries of a starting back, but not the opportunities near the goal line. This is another loss for me. Whether to play James or not is a weekly dilemma for owners.

Julius Jones, Seahawks. Wow, what got into Julius Jones yesterday? He was motivated and ran hard against a physical Niners’ defense. Jones finished with 26 carries for 127 yards and a TD. He also caught 3 passes for 14 yards. Starting Jones every week is a murky proposition. You must keep an eye on the Seattle team and who they are playing.

Donald Driver, Packers. The emergence of QB Aaron Rodgers makes Driver a solid #2 wide receiver. He had 52 combined rushing and receiving yards with a 2 yard touchdown catch. After being the 48th ranked receiver in Week 1, Driver responded with a great Fantasy game.

Sit’em

Derek Anderson, Browns. The wind was a major factor in the Sunday night game, but Anderson would have struggled regardless. He passed for 166 yards with 2 interceptions. The Steelers defense was dominant and Troy Palomalu played like he did during the Super Bowl run. Anderson was probably a high pick for you, but I would think about looking for QB help in a trade or on the waiver wire.

Joseph Addai, Colts. The Colts’ offensive line is in trouble and Addai is feeling the pain. He was bottled up by the Vikings defense and could only garner 33 combined rushing and receiving yards. Fantasy owners received a gift TD from Addai after the Anthony Gonzalez lateral. Peyton Manning’s two failed sneak attempts led to Addai getting a chance to score. Addai was a top 10 pick in most drafts and he has to score in double digits for Fantasy owners.

Lee Evans, Bills. This is a typical game for Evans. He does just enough to make you think about playing him again next week. He finished the game with 77 combined rushing and receiving yards. I think he should do more, but he was effective and the Bills won the game. This is close call—let’s call this one a tie!

Chris Chambers, San Diego. Philip Rivers and Chambers have developed chemistry. Chambers was clearly the go-to guy on Sunday. He finished with 83 combined rushing and receiving yards with 2 touchdowns. In most leagues that is 17 total points. At this stage of the season, Chambers' owners should start him every week.

Totals: 5-3-1 (Overall 11-6-1)

My Picks

Winners: Titans, Buccaneers, Packers, Giants, Cardinals, Raiders, Broncos
Losers: Vikings, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Jets, Steelers, Cowboys
Push: Panthers
Totals: 7-7-1 (Overall 16-14-1)

Fantasy Games: We went to a Decatur restaurant for lunch, and we watched the early Sunday games. It is kind of crazy to see lots of diverse people with laptops checking Fantasy scores. Another 1-1 week for me. I am now 2-0 in my Atlanta league and 0-2 in my Dallas league. The great part is that in the Atlanta league I have played very tough competition. In my Dallas league, I have a solid team that can score points, but I need to get a win. Both of my squads are struggling mightily at the TE position. After picking up Anthony Fasano and Robert Royal (from the Bills), I had no points from the TE position. Call Lehman Brotgers, that is the definition of a bad investment. Santana Moss was a great surprise this week and probably a certain starter next week.

Eliminator Contest. Whew, this week was a close call. I picked Seattle and then after some soul searching I switched to the Giants. Stayed alive for another week. My wife picked Arizona and she still is alive. 11% of the losers this week took Kansas City to beat Oakland and 10% took Seattle. After two weeks, 55% of the players already have been eliminated from this game.

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 2

2008-09-12T21:36:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Jon Kitna, Lions. Kitna is such an up and down player for Fantasy owners. He absolutely drove me crazy when he was on my team. You want to start him because he should put up great numbers, but he is capable of throwing up a negative number. The Packers defense is very good, but this is a good match up for Kitna, because of the embarrassing loss last week and because the Lions are playing on turf. Kitna’s receivers will be flying all over Ford Field.

Eli Manning, Giants. Although he won a Super Bowl, Eli is by no means a no-brainer Fantasy start unless he is playing the Rams. The Ram defense is porous at best. Look for Manning to have over 250 yards in the air and 3 touchdowns this week.

Edgerrin James, Cardinals. Last week, Tim Hightower had the goal line carries for the Cardinals, but do not count out the Edge. He is going against his hometown team the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins played hard at home last Sunday, but the trip to Arizona will take some fight out of them. Plus, teams must take away Kurt Warner and the wide receivers first. That means the running game should be strong for the Cardinals.

Julius Jones, Seahawks. Look for Jones to have a big game in his first start this week against the Niners. Seattle is at home where the frenzied crowd should give them a boost. Holmgren had to be embarrassed after last week’s loss. Seattle might have had the pads on some this week to practice hitting and tackling. Maybe, work on the special teams a little after giving up 14 points to the Bills’ trickery and Roscoe Parrish’s quick feet. The Seahawks have no receivers and Maurice Morris is hurt! Jones is the only skill player healthy. By default, he should score one TD.

Donald Driver, Packers. Driver did not get many opportunities last week, but he did have a long touchdown reception called back because of a penalty. If that play would have counted, he would have been near the top in WR scoring last week. Mix that up with the inept Lions defense and you have a recipe for a big game for Driver.

Sit’em

Derek Anderson, Browns. In Week 2 of 2007, Anderson announced his presence with authority in a huge Fantasy game against Cincinnati. On Sunday night in front of a wild atmosphere on Lake Erie, the exact opposite should happen. The Steelers linebackers and defensive line will dominate this game. Cleveland fans will go home angry, cry on their message boards, and nurse their hangovers all day at the docks and factories on Monday.

Joseph Addai, Colts. Addai was not himself on Sunday night. He was not making many people miss or gaining yards after first contact. The Vikings run defense is better than the Bears’ run defense. He gets some yards in the short passing game, but the prediction here is no touchdowns this week for Addai. Colts drop to 0-2. Manning and Brady did need some pre-season game action.

Lee Evans, Bills. Evans is so inconsistent. It might be unfair for me to pick him this week, because he played well last week. That means it is a lead pipe lock that he will be invisible this week against Jacksonville. Plus, the Jags defense might have to shutout the Bills to win this week.

Chris Chambers, San Diego. San Diego should move the football up and down the field on the Broncos. They should score plus 20 points and amass plenty of yards, but Chambers will be neutralized by the Broncos secondary. Look for Tomlinson (do not let the injured toe worry you), Gates, and Rivers to do most of the damage this Sunday.

My Picks

@ Bengals -1 Titans - Titans
Colts -2 @ Vikings - Vikings
@ Panthers -3 Bears - Panthers
@ Buccaneers -7 Falcons - Buccaneers
@ Redskins PK Saints - Saints
@ Jags -5 Bills - Jags
Packers -3 @ Lions - Packers
Giants -8.5 @ Rams - Giants
@ Seahawks -7 Niners - Seahawks
@ Cardinals -6.5 Dolphins - Cardinals
@ Jets -1 Patriots - Jets
@ Chiefs -3.5 Raiders - Raiders
Chargers -1.5 @ Denver - Denver
Steelers -6 @ Browns - Steelers
@ Cowboys -7 Eagles - Cowboys

Eliminator Contest. The games in the NFL this week are agonizingly close to call—only one point spread was larger than 7 points. The Giants are heavily favored versus St. Louis. I know the Rams are terrible, but in the dome, I am just scared they can beat the Giants. They can score points. That worries me. I ended up taking Seattle to beat San Francisco at home. Holmgren and Qwest Field should be the difference. My wife took Arizona at home to beat Miami. Wow, I just reread that paragraph. Frightening. Okay, I just watched a movie and this pick was bugging me the whole two hours. Checked out the Seahawks' stories in today's Seattle Post Intelligencer and changed my pick to the Giants.

P.S. Remember when Meg Ryan was a star and was kind of crazy cute. She was just on David Letterman and she looked like the 1980's Jack Nicholson version of the Joker. Her mouth was frozen in place. You have to feel pretty badly if you are Ricky Gervais, and you are the 2nd guest on Letterman after Meg Ryan.

Quick Slants - Week 1

2008-09-10T16:36:00.000-07:00

Waiver Wire:

Tom Brady owners are devastated like Owen Wilson last year when Kate Hudson broke up with him. However, unlike for Owen, there are no starlets to take Brady’s place. Here are some quarterbacks that are likely available in your league: Jon Kitna, Kerry Collins, Matt Cassel, Aaron Rodgers, Chad Pennington, and Brian Griese. My pick is Pennington. The Jets’ defense is not very good, but I liked what I saw on Sunday. The Dolphins are going to run the football, but Pennington will get chances to throw. Plus, the Dolphins are going to max protect for Pennington. I had Kitna a few years ago and it was a nightmare. Kerry Collins is not good and Garcia will be back soon for Tampa Bay. With Cassel and Rodgers, I fear an injury. What makes Brady, Manning, Favre, Marino, etc. great is their ability to perform consistently every week. Can Rodgers stay healthy?

In my Fantasy leagues, there are not very many options at running back. Kenny Watson from Cincinnati is a good pick up. He should be starting soon. Other options are Sammy Morris or Kevin Falk. Wait for other options to emerge from the shadows.

The injury to Marques Colston automatically increases the value for the other Saints’ WRs. David Patten, Devery Henderson, and Bobby Meachem are worth a waiver wire look. Of these three, my pick is Patten. He has better hands and a stronger bond with Brees. Keep an eye on Meachem over the next several weeks. I would drop Colston altogether. Other WRs possibilities are Eddie Royal and Darrell Jackson from Denver (Cutler looked very good Monday night), DeSean Jackson (over Hank Baskett), Kevin Walter, Chansi Stuckey (the Jets’ third WR), and Ashley Lelie (I know, I know that is awful; but, someone has to catch passes for the Raiders). Royal probably will be the first waiver wire pick in most leagues. I need to replace Drew Bennett--terrible draft choice.

At the TE position, there are a plethora of options. In one of my leagues, 6 out of the top 10 TEs are free agents. I like Anthony Fasano from the Dolphins. Others possible TEs are Robert Royal, Dante Rosario, Bo Scaife, and David Martin. Dante Rosario did put up better statistics, but his production will go down when Steve Smith comes back from suspension. The Panthers were using him wide most of the game. Dustin Keller of the Jets and Robert Royal of the Bills are rookies and bonafide options. I go with Royal over Keller.

Bananas. The Patriots are done. The party is over. You cannot replace Tom Cruise with Ryan Reynolds and expect big box office. Tom Brady is the most valuable player in the NFL. He is the leader on that offense. Guys play hard because they do not want to let him down. Do you think Randy Moss is going to run his pass patterns hard every play when he knows Matt Cassel cannot get him the football? Plus, the Patriots’ running game is not strong enough to get them to the playoffs. The line is built to pass block and their running backs are not All Pro caliber. People have been saying great things about Belichick making adjustments and so forth. The only reason the Patriots can make changes is that Brady covers up the mistakes. The only saving grace for this team is that they have the weakest schedule in the NFL.

My question is, if Vince Young is a grown man, why is his family even around to know he left the house without his cell phone? Buy your mother and sister a separate house. If my mommy had called the police every time I left the house in a bad state of mind, she would have been on the telephone every day. Vince has to grow up, and he has to realize the NFL is a “big boy” league. In LA, Norm Chow is smiling.

The whole BYU v. Washington celebration penalty is ridiculous. I am sure someone has mentioned this solution, but I have not heard it yet. Simply, allow the officials to call celebration penalties whenever the penalties are warranted, but enforce the penalty yards on the kick-off. Keep the PAT at the three yard-line. It is an untimed down. Additionally, you do not take away the opportunity to go for a 2-point conversion. Control the end zone celebrations, but do not affect the scoring chance of the PAT.

In my pre-season predictions, I had James Harrison, the defensive end for the Steelers, as my Defensive POY. All he did this week was bulldoze the Texans for 3 sacks and harass Matt Schaub all day long. Harrison played great and he is not getting the attention he deserves.

Monday night, I was reminded of Brent Musberger’s comments during Game 7 of the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics 1988 playoff series. He was talking about the greatness of Larry Bird. On Monday, I watched Roger Federer dominate Andy Murray in the US Open final. Federer is one of the true great players in all of sports. He hardly ever breaks a sweat, but last night you could see his determination and will to win. The only area where Andy Murray beats Federer is in the quality of girlfriend category. Awesome.

Other thoughts from Monday night, why is Audrina with Justin Bobby? And can we get more Whitney on the Hills?

Wrap Up - Week 1

2008-09-08T19:32:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Brett Favre and Thomas Jones, Jets. Favre was 15-22 for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns. Thomas Jones rushed for 101 yards and 1 touchdown on 22 carries. He matched his touchdown total for last season. I was right on these two guys.

Earnest Graham, Buccaneers. Graham rushed for 91 yards on 10 carries. He also caught 3 passes for 27 yards. Graham continues his success from the end of last season. At this point, he is a must start for Fantasy owners.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. Johnson had 22 rushes for 74 yards and caught 1 pass for 12 yards. This is a respectable week for a number two Fantasy back. Unfortunately for me, LJ is a number one Fantasy back. Count this as a loss.

Isaac Bruce, Niners. This pick was an embarrassment. Yesterday was only the 7th time in Bruce’s career that he was held without a catch. This is panic time for Bruce owners. Do not play him until he produces. Start thinking about a waiver wire pick up.

Roy Williams, Lions. Williams only had 47 total yards, but he did get into the end zone on a great catch against the Falcons. Scoring touchdowns is what Fantasy Football is all about.

Sit’em

Roddy White, Falcons. White could only muster 54 total yards. He was not much of a factor this week with Michael Jenkins catching a long TD pass from QB Matt Ryan. If the Falcons run the ball like this, keep playing White.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. I missed on this prediction. Rodgers was very solid for the Packers. He threw for a touchdown, ran for a touchdown, and totaled 214 yards. In most leagues, this is 20 Fantasy points.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks. Hasselbeck was able to throw for a TD and 190 yards passing, but he also tossed an interception. Less than 10 Fantasy points for your starting quarterback will not get you many wins in any league.

Total: 6 right and 3 wrong

My Picks

Wins: Giants, Jets, Chiefs, Steelers, Saints, Bills, Panthers, Dallas, Bears
Losses: Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Niners, Rams, Vikings, Oakland
Total: 9-7

Fantasy Games: In my weekend match ups, I was 1-1. Both of my opposing owners had monster running back games. One had Michael Turner, and the other guy had Willie Parker. I was fortunate to come out with one victory. I had very good Fantasy performances from Marion Barber, Tony Romo, Big Ben, Reggie Bush, Hines Ward, and some others. My TE position is in terrible shape. I definitely am looking for an upgrade at that position. Also, Tory Holt gave me 0 points which is a huge surprise. As bad as the Rams looked, will Holt even be a factor in the offense this season.

Eliminator Contest: I picked the Patriots. I survived this week even with the near fatal, early injury to Tom Brady. My wife picked the Giants, so she could relax and enjoy the games this weekend.

Start'em or Sit'em - Week 1

2008-09-06T09:27:00.000-07:00

Start’em

Brett Favre and Thomas Jones. The most improved unit on the Jets is the offensive line. Alan Faneca is a first ballot Hall of Famer. He brings an attitude and physical style of play. People are overestimating the Pennington / Parcells factor. Miami lost 15 games last year and lost their best defensive player. Jets should win big.

Earnest Graham. Very few people are talking about Graham, but he should be your starting line-up every week. Tampa Bay needs to keep QB Garcia healthy. That means more of a commitment to the run. Graham was very good down the stretch in 2007.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs. This guy will be back with a great year this year. He really is the only Fantasy or real life option on the Chiefs’ offense. New England’s defense feels soft. Look for 30 carries from Johnson as Herm Edwards keeps the clock running in the 2nd half. Plus, this game might be played in monsoon weather conditions.

Isaac Bruce, Niners. Wide receiver is the most volatile position in Fantasy week to week. Bruce is a good play this week, because he understands the Martz offense and how to get open. He is a step slower, but he will be the Niners’ main target against Arizona.

Roy Williams, Lions. Former Georgia Tech WR Charles Johnson has the cool nickname (Megatron) and all the hype, but QB Kitna has great rapport with Williams. Atlanta’s secondary is very, very suspect and small in stature.

Sit’em

Roddy White, Falcons. 2007 was supposed to be a breakout season for White, but it was more of a mirage of Bobby Petrino’s offense. Expect more running from the Falcons and less opportunities for White in this season’s first month.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Expect Rodgers to get injured in this game. National television. Jared Allen. The Packers’ O-Line was horrible in preseason. Rodgers does not have a quick release. 4 bad ingredients for Packers’ fans.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks. Now, Tim and Elizabeth are both on TV? I have never been a Hasselbeck fan and the wide receiver corps is decimated by injury. And, Buffalo should control time of possession and keep it a low scoring game.

My Picks

@ Giants -4 Redskins - Giants (check Thursday post)
Bengals -1.5 @ Ravens - Bengals
Lions -3 @ Falcons - Lions
Jets -3 @ Dolphins - Jets
@ Patriots -16.5 Kansas City - Kansas City
@ Pittsburgh -6.5 Houston - Pittsburgh
Jacksonville -3 @ Tennessee - Jacksonville
@ New Orleans -3.5 Tampa Bay - New Orleans
Cardinals -2.5 @ San Francisco - San Francisco
@ Buffalo -1 Seattle - Buffalo
@ Eagles -7.5 Rams - Rams
@ San Diego -9 Carolina - Carolina
Dallas -5.5 @ Cleveland - Dallas
@ Colts -9.5 Chicago - Chicago
@ Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota - Minnesota
Denver -3 @ Oakland - Oakland

Eliminator Contest. I picked New England to survive in Week I. My philosophy for the first month of the season is just to survive. Try to pick the guaranteed winners and do not use the strategy of saving teams for later in the season. Two years ago I was out after Week I. Last year, I lasted into November. My wife picked the Giants this week, so she already is safe and sound.

Panic and Predictions

2008-09-04T15:53:00.000-07:00

Last night, I was checking my lineups and my league message boards (I mainly wanted to confirm a small side bet for this week’s match up in my Atlanta league) when I saw a blurb about Ben Watson not practicing yesterday for New England. Talk about a Fantasy Football panic situation. Watson is my starting TE in both my leagues. Kind of a stupid move, but my feeling was the Patriots were going to expand his role this year and use him more like a 3rd wide receiver, i.e. Dallas Clark or Kellen Winslow, Jr. Before my draft, Watson seemed to be fine after ankle surgery in March, and he started training camp without missing practice. Although he does not get a lot of touches, Watson scored 6 touchdowns in 2007. Now, I have to start Kevin Boss of the NY Giants (I know there is a bye week conflict as well, but Boss ranked high on my sleeper board, and I picked him in the 15th round). Boss is a wild card. He could grab some fantasy points, but my problem is I can't wait and see if Watson practices on Friday. I have to play Boss or risk having a DNP on Sunday. In my other league, my back up TE is Owen Daniels. I drafted him pretty late with a great value pick. The Texans will score a ton of points this year, so Daniels is fine if Watson does not produce.

After checking several other Fantasy blogs and articles, analysts are saying not to start Ryan Grant of the Green Bay Packers. I drafted this guy with my 2nd round pick and out of principle Grant should start; but, he played one snap in the preseason and has a sore hamstring. That can not be good. Grant just got paid lots of money and he claims he is ready to play. Is he? The question is how hard will he run? How many carries? Does playing Minnesota mean not to start him? My 3rd running back is Reggie Bush. He has a great match up in the Superdome versus Tampa. I am leaning toward starting Bush.

Here are my predictions for final conference standings, playoffs, and post season awards for the 2008 NFL season:

NFC East: Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins
NFC North: Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears
NFC South: Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers, Falcons
NFC West: Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers

AFC East: Patriots, Jets, Bills, Dolphins
AFC North: Steelers, Bengals, Browns, Ravens
AFC South: Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans
AFC West: Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs

NFC Wild Cards: Cowboys, Saints
AFC Wild Cards: Jaguars, Jets

NFC Championship Game: Cowboys vs. Saints
AFC Championship Game: Steelers vs. Chargers
Super Bowl: Steelers vs. Cowboys

NFL MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
Offensive Player of the Year: Tony Romo, Cowboys
Defensive Player of the Year: James Harrison (Mr. Monday Night), Steelers
Coach of the Year: Eric Mangini, NY Jets
Rookie of the Year: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers

Quick Slants

2008-09-02T19:09:00.000-07:00

When did http://www.tmz.com/ start covering athletes so closely? Fred Taylor was on the web site this weekend. Do not fear Fred Taylor will not be affected by his run in with the Miami police department. If you have him this weekend, he is a solid starting option as your second running back. After reading today’s article at http://www.orlandosentinel.com/, the NFL should not suspend Taylor. On its face, the incident is a combination of the police overreacting and Taylor losing his cool. The confrontations happen when the police pull you out of your car in front of your friends and search your vehicle. Usually, you get angry when you are not doing anything illegal and the cops are searching your car. No harm done, no crime committed. Look for Taylor to have an above average season with over 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns.

ESPN published an article last week proclaiming the fans of the Pittsburgh Steelers as the NFL’s best. I wholeheartedly agree. The Steelers have been my team for over 25 years. I have a Rod Woodson jersey and a real Terrible Towel. I lived in Pittsburgh for a few years and the devotion of the entire city is hard to believe. In hospitals, nurses wear Steelers’ jerseys on game day! Enough said. Check out the article:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview08/columns/story?id=3530077

The Detroit Lions signed former Bengals' running back Rudi Johnson and cut Tatum Bell. That move makes Johnson the Lions’ back up running back. If your running back situation is murky, Johnson is a great pick up on the waiver wire. He definitely will get carries in the red zone. Just two years ago, he rushed for over 1,300 yards. Kevin Smith was running for Central Florida last year. Expect some growing pains from the rookie Smith, and if Rudi can stay healthy, he will handle more carries each week.

If you have players on the Redskins or Giants on your Fantasy team, you have to make sure your line-ups are in by Thursday game time. Do not buy stock in the pre-season results. Throw those records out the window. However, I do not remember seeing a team blown out like the Redskins were against Carolina. If I were a Redskins’ fan, I would be very nervous starting the season with rookie Head Coach Jim Zorn. Sometimes, my gut feelings are reinforced in random ways. Listening to Colin Cowherd on ESPN today, Colin interviewed Clinton Portis. Portis described training camp as “fun”. He then praised Zorn and offered up the idea that Zorn “puts guys in positions where they can succeed.” Allow me to translate what those two statements mean. Zorn is soft and not very demanding. Training camp has not been tough enough. If Clinton Portis is having fun and liking Zorn, the Redskins are in trouble. I remember when Cowher first took the Steelers’ job. The Steelers were blown out in weeks 1 and 2. Cowher quickly figured it out that being a player’s coach does not go very far in the NFL. Guys have to be pushed to work hard. My prediction is a Giants win by 14+ points.

Start’em or Sit’em – Redskins
Portis is the only guy on the Redskins’ offense that I would play this week. Maybe, you can play Santana Moss or Chris Cooley depending on your roster. The Giants’ defense should be all over Jason Campbell. Portis will get his stats, but no one else is a legitimate fantasy starter this week.

Start’em or Sit’em – Giants
Start Eli, Plaxico, Brandon Jacobs, and the Defense. I am not a fan of Jacobs, but look for him to be the feature back this week. At this point, Eli is a must play. His confidence should be sky high early in the season. The Giants are going to score 30+ points in this game, so if you have other skill players consider playing them, but most likely they are your backups. For example, I drafted Kevin Boss as my backup TE. He could have a big week, but I am not playing him until he consistently produces.

Check back on Friday for my player picks for this weekend’s games.

Ikea & Your Fantasy Roster

2008-08-31T21:09:00.001-07:00

Football season is here! The city of Atlanta was invaded this weekend, not by the North, but by Clemson and Alabama fans. I went to my favorite burrito place Saturday afternoon to get a snack. Outside in the parking lot of the shopping center, there were dueling SUV’s—one flying Clemson flags and the other flying Alabama flags. Inside the restaurant, there was a booth of Orange and a booth of Crimson. 8 fired up football fans about 10 miles from downtown eating burritos and talking trash. Seeing these fans has gotten me fired up for the NFL this week.

After eating, I went to the Ikea store in Midtown. Wow, that was an experience. I had no idea the store was that big and popular. The store is a melting pot and a giant tourist attraction. Of course, after navigating some more Alabama fans, I bought some stuff. Buying from Ikea is like drafting for Fantasy Football. Everything looks stylish and fits great together in the store, but once you get the furniture home you can find flaws. You really can mess something up if you do not follow the directions. On Fantasy draft night, your selections look pretty good on paper, but in the days leading up to the season, all kinds of things happen to make you question your roster.

Here are some of the team cuts, suspensions, coaches’ decisions, and injuries that have affected fantasy rosters in the past few days:

Ken Whisenhunt named Kurt Warner the staring quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. Warner was not even drafted in my Dallas League! For this blog, I was checking his status, and I was shocked to discover he already has been nabbed off the waiver wire. I did not know we even had a waiver wire until after week 1. I texted the commissioner, but have not gotten an answer. Clearly, the commish is asleep at the wheel. Knowing him, it is probably girl trouble. An indication of how competitive this league will be this year is that Leinart was not drafted until the 125th pick as a back up for Carson Palmer.

Brandon Marshall’s suspension reduction has increased his value a ton. The 3 game suspension would have been a quarter of the fantasy season. Instead, after winning his appeal, he will miss 1 game, but have to give up $52,000 in salary. Even with the suspension looming, he was drafted 37th in my Dallas League. The question is who will be the starting wide receiver opposite Marshall? Either Darrell Jackson or Eddie Royal should benefit from playing opposite Marshall. Brandon Stokely, the Broncos 3rd wide receiver, plays mostly in the slot, so his production is likely to stay the same.

Probably, the best value pick of my Dallas League draft was J.T. O’Sullivan at number 179. Almost “Mr. Irrelevant”, O’Sullivan is the San Francisco 49ers starter for opening weekend. My guess is he gets a few starts to prove he is the right guy. Plus, O-Coordinator Mike Martz will give him every chance to succeed. He could be this year’s Derek Anderson at the QB spot. Also, I like Arnaz Battle to emerge as a viable back up at wide receiver for Fantasy owners.

Fantasy owners who drafted Rudi Johnson high in the draft are kicking themselves. Johnson was cut yesterday by the Bengals. Although the Texans and others are interested in Johnson, his fantasy value has dropped. If he does catch on with another team, do not even consider playing him for a few weeks. The fight is now on for the top spot in the Bengals’ backfield. Chris Perry has been named the starter, but Kenny Watson is the better back. Watson should be the eventual starter with Perry filling the 3rd down back role. For fantasy owners, Watson is more valuable because he will get the goal line carries.

Every Fantasy owner knows that some running back is going to score lots of fantasy points for the Denver Broncos. Who will start for the Broncos? That picture has been fuzzy this pre-season. Anthony Alridge had over 100 yards in the last pre-season game, but he was injured and is on the reserve / injured list. Fantasy owners with Selvin Young and Andre Hall are happy, because the value has gone up for both of these players. Instead of 3 guys splitting carries, Young and Hall should share the workload.

I am not very high on Plaxico Burress this year, but great news for Fantasy owners—Plaxico has practiced three straight days. The ankle appears to be fine. This guy does not like to practice, but he is a nightmare match-up for NFL cornerbacks. He is huge and a great target near the goal line. However, I think he is going to be one guy affected with a Super Bowl hangover. Although last year, Randy Moss skipped the pre-season and everyone knows how that turned out!

Two years ago, Chad Jackson, the former New England first round draft pick and recent final victim, caused a near riot during one of my drafts. One of our owners wanted to draft Chad Johnson, but drafted Jackson by accident. A flurry of instant messages was the result. After commissioner intervention, the guy ended up with Chad Johnson. By cutting Jackson, Jabar Gaffney’s value went way up as New England’s 3rd receiver. Hopefully, the Pats will play Ben Watson (I have Watson in both of my leagues, talk about commitment) in the slot and throw him the ball more this year, especially near the goal line!

Fantasy Projections (Part II)

2008-08-26T20:01:00.000-07:00

After watching this past weekend's preseason games, here is a look at some fantasy players from the Tennessee Titans, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Pittsburgh Steelers:

The Tennessee Titans are boring to watch. It was hard not to channel surf during their offensive possessions. I had even forgotten that they made the playoffs last year at 10-6. So, they made the playoffs and fired Norm Chow as offensive coordinator. To be the O-Coordinator, the Titans hired Mike Heimerdinger. The question is will Heimerdinger make VY into better passer. Not this year. I like VY’s ability to scramble, make plays, and win games. In the last two years, the Titans have improved in the wins total, but as far as fantasy owners VY is a sell. He is good in real life, but not in fantasy.

I really am impressed with the Titans’ rookie running back Chris Johnson. This guy is fast and explosive. He is not going to explode onto the scene like Adrian Peterson, but he is going to be important to the Titans’ success this year. He is going to get a lot of touches both in the running game and the passing game. I mean Vince Young has to throw and he does not throw downfield very well. That means look for the underneath passing game. Getting Chris Johnson the football in space against a linebacker is going to be a great weapon for Tennessee this year.

In my Atlanta league, I drafted the Tennessee Titans defense as my starting defense. It was a late round pick, but watching the game last Friday night I think it might have been wasted. I have very little confidence in the Titans’ defense being a big factor for my team this year.

Maybe it was the Steelers’ defense. Maybe it was Gus Frerotte at quarterback. Maybe it is just another example of a guy not running that hard in the preseason, but Adrian Peterson did not look like a dominant fantasy player. AP looked kind of slow and lacked burst into the line of scrimmage. If I had Peterson, I would be worried. Fantasy top 3 draft picks have to produce points every week. Peterson looks like he has lost his explosiveness. Consider drafting Chester Taylor in the mid to late rounds as a stop gap in case Peterson gets injured.

The Vikings’ defense is a virtual lock to be a top 5 fantasy defense. I would consider taking them higher in the draft before there is a run on defenses. Whenever the Vikings play in the dome on the turf, the defense should put up lots of fantasy points. The addition of Jared Allen gives them another guy that creates turnovers and possible defensive touchdowns.

For Pittsburgh, Rashad Mendenhall runs like a guy that will score points in fantasy football. He will get opportunities in the Steeler offense, because Bruce Arians is going to run the football. Last year, the Steelers led the NFL in running back carries. Mendenhall is bigger than Willie Parker and should get opportunities near the goal line. The problem for Mendenhall is that he cannot fumble. Fumbling is the quickest way to get a seat on the bench. I think the Steelers should keep an eye on the Atlanta Falcons. If the Falcons cut running back Jason Snelling, he would be a great pick up at running back for the Steelers’ offensive system.

One position that always gives me trouble in fantasy drafts is the TE position. These players are becoming more impact players in Fantasy Football, but overall you can put most of these guys in a hat and just pick out a name. You do not want to waste an early pick on a tight end, but you do not want to get caught at the end of the draft with very limited options. The three starters for these teams show the diversity at the tight end position.

Heath Miller at tight end is another Steeler that is a solid fantasy pick. Miller and Roethlisberger have had a great connection from the very beginning of Miller’s career. As Hines Ward gets older this year and teams focus on Santonio Holmes in the red zone, look for Miller to be a bigger factor in the Steelers’ passing game. A player that is really flying under the radar for the Vikings is TE Visanthe Shiancoe. This guy went undrafted in one of my fantasy drafts. He looks and runs like a wide receiver. If the Vikings had a top quarterback, Shiancoe would have a chance to score 10 touchdowns. I mean, can you even name a Vikings’ wide receiver? He is a great TE option in the later rounds as a back up / possible starter. The Titans’ tight end is Alge Crumpler. Crumpler escaped a terrible situation last year in Atlanta. Recently, he has been slowed by injuries, but he looks to be in great shape. He will catch the ball in traffic and give VY a guy he can count on under pressure. If he is available, take Crumpler in round 16 and play him in match ups when the Titans play weak defensive teams.

Fantasy Projections (Part I)

2008-08-23T20:33:00.000-07:00

This weekend with luck and perseverance I watched parts of 3 pre-season NFL games. The Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons (crazy, but this game was blacked out in Atlanta and I was able to watch the replay. The broadcast hardly showed the crowd, but when they did the number of empty seats in the newly refurbished Georgia Dome was depressing. I blame Vince Young for being a much more boring version of Michael Vick), and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Minnesota Vikings, were all on CBS (man, I have to get this cable hooked up soon). Watching these games should not drastically change your player projections, but the information gained can be the difference in having a great, mediocre, or bad draft. Here are some players from these games to keep an eye on this week during your fantasy draft:

The Houston Texans’ running backs have above average fantasy value. Have never liked Chris Brown and he is hurt already, but the young guns are worth a look. I chuckled at a WVU guy in my Atlanta league who took Steve Slaton, but that was before I saw that Alex Gibbs is the new offensive line coach. Against the Cowboys, Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor ran hard and picked up yards. The Texans' offense is going to move the football and they are committed to the running game. Expect a 1,000 yard rushing season out of one of these two backs. Think Broncos redux. You just have to pick the right guy. Take Brown or Slaton and save Taylor for the waiver wire.

If I were an NFL coach in the real world, Matt Schaub would be high on my list of QBs to lead a team. In the fantasy world, Schaub is a borderline starter. He could put up big numbers, or he could be replaced by Sage Rosenfels in week 4.

Kevin Walter, a wide receiver for the Texans, is a sleeper, late round wide receiver. On Friday night, he scored a touchdown on a crossing pattern by making a tough catch and run. Opposite of Andre Johnson, Walter should be open a ton. Plus, Schaub looks for him when they need clutch 3rd down catches and yards. He is kind of like a poor man’s Wes Welker. Owen Daniels at tight end looks to be a solid choice for fantasy owners. In a 16 round draft, he should go around #100. He works the middle of the field and is a big target for Schaub near the goal line. Do not take under any circumstances take Jacoby Jones!

Every skill player on the Cowboys’ offense is fantasy gold. They are so deep. O-Coordinator Jason Garrett wants to lead the NFL in offense in 2008. The main guys--Romo, Owens, Barber, Witten--barring injury are very high fantasy picks. Patrick Crayton and Felix Jones, the running back from Arkansas, will have solid years and are good mid-to-late rounders. I would even consider taking Brad Johnson or TE Martellus Bennett off the waiver wire if something happens to Witten or Romo (he could get benched after Jessica Simpson and her dad mess with his head).

Living in Atlanta, I am worried about having to watch this team every week. However, against Tennessee on Friday, some players definitely stood out. I already am sold on Michael Turner. Jerious Norwood looks like a much improved player. His speed never has been a question, but he ran surprisingly hard in this game. More impressive was the fact that he got hammered on a tackle in the 1st half, and probably could have called it a night, but in the 2nd half he played well and broke big runs into the secondary. Also, Norwood will play a big role in catching the ball out of the backfield. Mike Mularkey, the new Atlanta OC, is not going to let Matt Ryan take deep drops and hold the football. Screens and short passes will be plentiful. Norwood can catch and Michael Turner cannot. Expect an increase in Norwood’s total touches and yards this year.

Mularkey has not gotten a lot of publicity yet, but I followed him closely when he coached with the Steelers (I am a Steelers fan). He creates great misdirection and specialty plays. For example, the play the Falcons scored on with about 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter was vintage Mularkey. The Falcons were on the 2 yard line and lined up in the shotgun with the rookie QB Matt Ryan. Ryan made a great play-action fake and found a wide open receiver, Harry Douglas, for a touchdown. Mularkey will be conservative, but he has wrinkles in his offensive play package that should help Atlanta score easier in the red zone this season. With Mularkey calling the plays, Falcons' QB "Matty Ice" is a possible bye week pick up or a late, late rounder if you have Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, or another durable starter.

Avoid at all costs the Atlanta Falcons’ defense. The Dallas Cowboys’ defense will be solid, but not spectacular or even above average. The Houston Texans’ defense is a top 10 fantasy defense. The defensive line alone should rack up sacks and force fumbles. One red flag for them is that they play in a tough division that is notorious for high scoring games.

*Part two of this post focuses on the Titans, Vikings, and Steelers.

Fantasy Draft Diary - Dallas Edition

2008-08-21T21:02:00.000-07:00

6:53 Fired up for the draft, but my wife is hungry. Going to cook in the hopes that she will go get me some beer. Made two giant egg and sausage sandwiches. The secret is to use a little Frank’s Red Hot to top off the sandwich. Also, cook the egg like an omelet with cheese, tomatoes, and onions.
7:39 Firing up the laptop. My wife sighs at my excitement, “oh my gosh, what is wrong with you”. Getting my draft materials together—a pen, a highlighter, 2007 statistics, my draft pick numbers, and my draft cheat sheet.
7:58 Turned the television to the Olympics. No cable right now and its killing me. Olympics have been great, but my favorite show is The Hills and I am missing LC, Audrina, and Whitney. Oh yeah, logged on to the draft site for my Dallas league. Oh no, Lawrence Tynes is having exploratory knee surgery! Immediately, guys start instant messaging and talking about their college girls and facebook friends. People, we are in our 30’s.
8:01 Costas just said something in Chinese. Ugh. The overhead shots of Beijing are unbelievable. Huge city. Hate that I already know what happens in the track events.
8:06 Misty May-Treanor just said that the Marlins’ pitchers in the bullpen were checking their cell phones during games to give her husband updates. Sad. No wonder the Marlins are dropping in the standings.
8:16 The draft is off without a hitch. Of course, the token Boston sports guy takes Tom Brady with the 3rd pick. He is a transplant that wears a Red Sox hat and strokes Sean McDonough and Jimmy Fallon.
8:22 Took Ryan Grant with the 9th pick--not sure about that one
8:27 Took Marshawn Lynch with the 16th pick. Wanted Peyton Manning, but a Dallas guy selected him just ahead of me.
8:30 Draft is slowing a bit--watching a McCain commercial that starts out with the words, “Washington is broken.” Haven’t the Republicans and McCain been running Washington for the last 6-8 years?
8:43 Why is Collinsworth here? Why is he such a dork? Wish I had his job! Costas just said that they should play beach volleyball in sweats, is he crazy? Would like to see Phil Dalhausser run a pass pattern and try to catch a ball on the move.
8:50 One of these guys just took Greg Jennings with the 34th pick. Wow, yeah I forgot with the 33rd pick I took Reggie Bush. Kim Kardashian could provide some excitement in the owner’s suite. Have a decision to make with pick #40. Go quarterback or wide receiver?
8:54 Tyson gay just dropped the baton, what? Doc Patton had to slow down--blame the rain. Tyson, you have to start running earlier. Tough Olympics for Mr. Gay.
8:59 Coke commercial rips off Johnny Cash. Just took Roethlisberger in Round 4. I am a Steelers fan, but really wanted Santonio Holmes. He was just taken in front of me. A theme might be developing. It was Big Ben or Wes Welker. Tough decision. Last year could have been a fluke for both.
9:12 Need a wide receiver, but the Dallas league always drafts WRs early. Lots of retreads left like Derrick Mason, Hines Ward, Marvin Harrison, and Chris Chambers. Decide to take Coles or Cotchery. Cotchery is the choice. Maybe he is a deep threat and we never knew it! USA just dropped the baton in women’s 400 meter relay.
9:15 Justin Fargas just got drafted at #60 about 63 spots earlier than in my Atlanta league. Weird, wild, interesting.
9:19 Uh-oh panic time--watching the Olympics and blogging and clicked back. Had 45 seconds to make my pick. Wanted Shockey and figured he would be there, but the guy right in front of me picked him. Took Anthony Gonzalez with 64th pick. I had Marvin Harrison last year and his career is pretty much over, so Gonzalez should get more balls thrown his way.
9:26 Why is the USA logo handwritten on these track uniforms? How in the world is BMX a sport in the Olympics?
9:40 My wife wants me to take Santana Moss here. Never liked his game, but make the pick anyway. I am distracted by everyone taking defenses so early.
9:57 Took David Garrard as my back up quarterback. My wife is making milkshakes and she cannot get the blender to work. We just moved, so it might be damaged. We have never used it before. What is going on? I go over and get it to work. That might not have been the best idea, but I want a milkshake.
10:08 I just heard that I missed “a dive for the ages”. NBC already cut away and I do not know what happened or who made the dive.
10:25 Wish that I did not know what happened in this Men’s 400 meter final. This would have been a great, jump up and down race to watch, but at 9 am this morning someone at work told me Wariner lost. Congrats Lashawn Merritt.
10:47 This might be my worst fantasy draft ever. Took a flyer on Drew Bennett. What is this 5 years ago? Painful. This is a bad fantasy team. The good thing about wide receivers is that there will be surprises and I can get someone off the waiver wire.
10:54 Someone just took Alex Smith with pick # 169--is that a misprint?
11:06 Draft is over. Alas, milkshakes instead of beers. My last two picks were Kevin Boss and the Oakland Raiders defense. Am I even trying at this point? Very fast draft which is great. Some fun instant messages. USA men’s beach volleyball is in real trouble. This is great with no commercial interruptions. Is Dalhausser nervous? Good luck to everyone with their fantasy teams. Dallas league should be ultra competitive again this year!

Under the Radar Guys for Fantasy 2008

2008-08-19T19:20:00.000-07:00

In my last post, I gave you 5 players to avoid in your NFL fantasy draft this summer. When I did my players to avoid, I looked at their statistics from last year and researched the most recent news on those players. Before my draft, I also come up with a longer list of 20-30 players that I like that might be flying under the radar for other fantasy owners. Normally, these players are drafted in later rounds, but end up as starters as the season moves into October and November. I mark these guys off as they are drafted and look for them if they fall through the cracks. The list is longer and more based on a gut feeling, a hunch, a loyalty based on past fantasy glory, or maybe a brief snippet of friendly conversation. Here are players that I like for 2008 and my quickie reasons for keeping an eye on them:

David Garrard is a quarterback that is not normally mentioned in the top two tiers of fantasy quarterbacks. The Jacksonville Jaguars are poised to have another great year. Garrard rarely makes turnovers to give him negative fantasy points. Last year, he was the starter, but I think the Jags protected him a little, but this year expect more passing attempts and more opportunities in the red zone. Garrard went 87th in my Atlanta league.

Donovan McNabb. I really, really wanted to draft McNabb in my Atlanta league. I had two scenarios for my quarterback situation. Fortunately, one of the guys in the league took Peyton Manning in the 1st round and I was able to draft Tony Romo as my quarterback with the 13th pick. If Romo were gone, I was taking a running back and waiting for McNabb. If he is healthy, he is going to have a monster season. I see him staying healthy for at least the first 10 games of the season before wearing down. McNabb went 45th in ATL draft.

Matt Forte is the starting running back for the Chicago Bears. I know I have never heard of him either. The Bears just announced that Kyle Orton is their starter. That will last about 2 weeks. Forte is young and he will get plenty of carries. To me, after Devin Hester, Forte is the Bears’ second scoring option in the red zone. Inside the 5 yard line, he is the only option. Forte went 70th in my draft which seemed pretty low. I passed on him to take Selvin Young from the Denver Broncos.

Fred Taylor, Jacksonville. I never have liked Fred Taylor, but this year is different. Taylor is going to have a solid fantasy year. He definitely is a solid option as a 2nd or 3rd fantasy back. Splitting carries with Maurice Jones-Drew has helped Taylor stay healthy. In the games I saw last year, he ran hard. He will hit the hole in the middle and gain yards. Jones-Drew breaks long runs for touchdowns, but Taylor is tougher near the goal line. He also is a capable receiver that will get receptions from screens and swings in the Jaguars’ conservative passing game. Taylor went 68th in ATL draft.

Chester Taylor is Adrian Peterson’s back up in Minnesota. Taylor has value in the fact that Peterson has a history of injury. I think Minnesota coach Brad Childress will use Taylor to share carries with Peterson. Childress also will get Taylor the ball in the passing game. Last year, Taylor was hurt, but he is very talented and elusive in the open field. On another team, he would be the starter. He has value as a later round pick or a higher pick as a cutout if you drafted Peterson in the 1st round. Chester went 81st.

Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina Panthers. Four years ago, Muhammad had a monster year in Carolina. Then, he signed for large dollars with the Chicago Bears. Of course, I picked him in Fantasy that year, and Muhammad was horrible. I do not blame him—I blame the horrible Bears’ offense. Now, after really wasting 3 seasons, he is back with Carolina and reunited with Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith. If Delhomme’s arm is strong enough, Moose should have a great year. He scored on a tough catch in the preseason action I saw. He is a big target in the end zone and uses his body to ward off defenders. Look for him to emerge as Delhomme’s go to guy in the middle of the field near the goal line. Surprisingly, Muhammad was not drafted in Atlanta league.

Ted Ginn, Miami Dolphins. I have to admit I am an Ohio State fan going back to the days of Doug Donley and Jim Karsatos. This year Ted Ginn drops the Junior and becomes a solid NFL player. Someone on the Dolphins has to score touchdowns, don’t they? Ginn will benefit from the toughness of the new coaching staff, from the improvement in the running game, and from the addition of quarterback Chad Pennington. Ginn was drafted 134th in my Atlanta league.

Other guys I like: Jerricho Cotchery, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Bobby Meachem (WR, New Orleans Saints), Rashard Mendenhall, Robbie Gould (Bears will score many, many field goals), the Jacksonville Defense (new coordinator Gregg Williams’ schemes will create turnovers), Santonio Holmes, Selvin Young, Tony Scheffler, Robert Royal (TE from Buffalo), and Chris Henry (WR for the Bengals—this guy scores touchdowns, but not a very nice guy!)

Fantasy Owners--Avoid These 5 in 2008

2008-08-18T19:15:00.000-07:00

I am in two Fantasy Football Leagues for the 2008 National Football League season. One league is based in Dallas, Texas and the other league is based in Atlanta, Georgia. I am a Dallas league veteran, while this is my first year in the Atlanta league. Usually, I do my draft in the comfort of my own home with a couple of cold beverages, but this year I participated in a war room type draft in Atlanta. A friend’s new home (yes, some people are still buying) was transformed by 8 guys with 6 laptops into draft central. A giant flat screen television played the Olympics and we got down to business. In the next few weeks, I will blog about my two drafts, my player analysis, and my strategies for this season in Fantasy Football.

Here are 5 veteran players with proven Fantasy success that you should avoid this year (I have included each player’s draft position from my Atlanta league draft):

Carson Palmer. According to the Average Draft Position, or ADP, from Fantasy Football Today or www.fftoday.com, Palmer is being taken as the 52nd pick. When I checked the site for this blog, the ADP was based on a composite of over 1,000 drafts in 12 team leagues. Palmer played very well last year and played in all 16 games. I think he is an injury risk this season. The Bengals’ running game is not that strong and the offensive line is a question mark due to injuries. Palmer’s receivers are exceptional, but look for teams to key on and try to stop T.J. Houshmanzedeh more this season. Look for the Bengals to be under .500 this year, and for Palmer to struggle. In 2007, Palmer ended the season as the 9th best quarterback and scored 19.5 fantasy points per game. In my Atlanta draft, Palmer was taken with the 41st pick.

Jay Cutler. Cutler’s ADP is the 101st pick. In 2007, I was amazed to see that Cutler finished the NFL season as the 12th best quarterback by scoring 17.6 pts per game. I had him last year and dropped him. He was very inconsistent. It turns out he had diabetes that was undiagnosed. He should be more consistent, but I do not like the skill players in Denver. Who is going to be the running back? Cutler is not a guy that can carry a team. He needs the running game to set up the play action passing game. Without a go-to running back, look for him to struggle in 2008. In my Atlanta draft, Cutler was taken with the 77th pick, so that is clearly a reach pick.

Justin Fargas. Last season, Fargas finished the season strongly as the 23rd best running back (one spot ahead of usual Fantasy high draft pick Reggie Bush-Kardashian) with 10.3 points per game. His ADP is the 104th pick. He comes into the season as the Oakland starter, but Darren McFadden and Michael Bush should each see plenty of carries. I agree with most fantasy owners in thinking that Fargas is going to get lost in the shuffle, and that McFadden will burst onto the NFL scene. In my Atlanta draft, Fargas was nearly forgotten and ended up as the 123rd pick.

Steve Smith (CAR). Smith’s training camp fight and suspension does not seem to be hurting him in most drafts. According to www.fftoday.com, his average draft position is the 38th pick. He is suspended for two games that will count in all fantasy leagues, so owners lose those points. He also has competition for catches in the red zone in the form of the reacquired Muhsin Muhammed. Smith’s reputation in Fantasy is still solid if you look at his high ADP this year. I think it is loyal owners that draft Smith every year no matter the circumstances. (There is guy like that in my Dallas league.) In 2007, he ended the season as the17th best wide receiver with 9.5 points per game. That ranking should drop this year. In my Atlanta draft, Smith was passed over several times and finally taken with the 50th pick.

Chad Johnson. I like Chad Johnson as a player and NFL personality, but he has not been the same player since the Bengals’ playoff loss to the Steelers in 2006. Whispers of a locker room fight with his head coach Marvin Lewis at halftime of that game have lingered and messed with his fragile psyche. There has been much sound and fury from Johnson this off season, but that might be nothing in 2008. His ankle still is not 100 percent, and now his shoulder is injured. I think he knows he is the 2nd best receiver on his team, and he wants to force his way out of Cincinnati. Still, he is a favorite of Fantasy owners and has been going near Steve Smith with the 39th pick of most drafts. Ocho Cinquo was the 6th best wide receiver in 2007 with 12 points per game. In my Atlanta draft, which was receiver and quarterback heavy in the early rounds, Ocho was taken with the 28th pick.